How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Tigers!]

What does it mean that the Victory parade was scaled back? Did the drone attack scare them or they that low on tanks?

Low on tanks. And too fucking depressing.

Yes, people in the crowd might remember some one who did not come back from Ukraine

 

[TV and credit cards]

The more I think about this Prigozhin drama, the more it seems to me that it was really about the rivalry between Gerasimov and the general in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine that he replaced, General Sergei Surovikin. Putin replace Surovikin after the Russians suffered quite a few high profile defeats. Prigozhin has been attacking both Shoigu and Gerasimov repeatedly as having deliberately cut off ammo supplies to the Wagner mercenaries. Now Prigozhin has announced that it is Surovikin himself who is newly appointed as liaison between Wagner and the regular army. Maybe Prigozhin isn't looking to replace Putin with himself so much as sponsor Surovikin as his champion. Shoigu, who is known to have serious health problems, may consider Gerasimov to be his own champion. Putin is probably just playing them off against each other, because he needs both of them but doesn't want to be pushed out by either.

So now ISW is saying that Prigozhin is not getting the ammunition he requested, he was forced to back down on a threat of being charged with treason. One wonders though if he can hold on to Bakhmut without the ammunition. The next couple of days will be crucial.

And Prigozhin tries to get through on the telephone to Surovikin.
(surprise, surprise, surprise).
There's still nobody home.

Sounds like Prigozhin is losing juice. Or more to the point, finding out what little juice he had to begin with. So he is now making derogatory comments about "grandfather" (Putin) calling him an "asshole" and "showing off on Red Square". Those some end-stage comments there.

Some Victory Day parade though. Going with the nostalgia theme, they limped out one WWII tank for the occasion.

 

[SLD]

And now Ukraine is reporting a successful counterattack in Bakhmut!

Ukrainian forces eliminate two enemy companies and liberate part of Bakhmut

The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Forces defeated Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, taking many invaders captive and liberating part of Bakhmut, Azov Regiment commander Andriy Biletsky said in a video report on Telegram on May 9.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Harry Bosch]

And now Ukraine is reporting a successful counterattack in Bakhmut!

Ukrainian forces eliminate two enemy companies and liberate part of Bakhmut

The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Forces defeated Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, taking many invaders captive and liberating part of Bakhmut, Azov Regiment commander Andriy Biletsky said in a video report on Telegram on May 9.

news.yahoo.com

Yes, the tide is starting to turn. I haven't been disagreeing with Jay in that Russia had been winning. But it's turning. Russia's mighty May 9 parade featured one tank. One. On May 7, Putler launched 32 drones and 29 missiles at Ukranian targets. 32 drones and 27 of the missiles were intercepted. No civilian deaths. China warming up to Ukraine and Europe. Change is coming...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And now Ukraine is reporting a successful counterattack in Bakhmut!

Ukrainian forces eliminate two enemy companies and liberate part of Bakhmut

The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Forces defeated Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, taking many invaders captive and liberating part of Bakhmut, Azov Regiment commander Andriy Biletsky said in a video report on Telegram on May 9.

news.yahoo.com

All claims to be taken with grain of salt... but even if it were a tie in Bakhmut, that'd be a loss for Russia. Waging war is expensive and a strain on resources. The longer it endures, the more it strains. Russia has technical superiority over Ukraine, but chooses not to use it. Their superiority is a bit too big, and launching cruise missiles to level all of Kyyv doesn't work for them. And Russia have been fighting a war of attrition for a long time now... and the "occupying" force historically isn't the one who is supposed to fight with attrition. That is Ukraine's job. And the hunger, the cold, the heat, all of that gets put aside for protecting the homeland... Russian forces don't really have any reason to want to do this. I can't imagine Russian military morale being anything but abysmal.

Support for Ukraine is weakening western supply lines, but the west does have a bit more backup for production. Ukraine isn't winning, but Russia is failing in a major way here. They have established that they are incapable of managing an occupation... as they can't even get to that point yet. The Ukrainians didn't do any of the things barbos thought they would, rather they nationalized and stood against the Russians. Russia, at this point is risking, all of their territorial gains in Ukraine (from their proxy "rebel" stuff years ago).

Losing mercenaries could be the end of this. Or not. But it'd require putting even less enthusiastic soldiers into the theater with diminishing military command intelligence behind them.

 

[Jayjay]

And now Ukraine is reporting a successful counterattack in Bakhmut!

Ukrainian forces eliminate two enemy companies and liberate part of Bakhmut

The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Forces defeated Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, taking many invaders captive and liberating part of Bakhmut, Azov Regiment commander Andriy Biletsky said in a video report on Telegram on May 9.

news.yahoo.com

I don't think this happened "in Bakhmut" but rather "south of Bakhmut". There's some sort of river or channel and Russians got pushed back to the east side of it. Good for Ukraine, but still a far cry from retaking Bakhmut.

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

(At least I think this is the area, dated 5/10 and some people in twitter are saying it was the 3rd Brigade like in the article.)

 

[SLD]

Ukraine doesn’t have to “win”. They just need to stop and hold the Russians. That’s a failure for Russia. Eventually they will be forced to give up. They can’t control the territories they’ve conquered. They don’t want to be there. They have no reason to participate. The Russian people will not put up with an indefinite war without victory and intensive casualties that never stop. Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for the independence of their nation. That’s 90% of it. At some point Russia will give up. Maybe after Putin exits the scene. But his failures cannot be denied. And that does not bode well for his future. Somewhere someone in the Russian military is sick of him. Many are. Eventually some of them are going to act. Or maybe he just decides to leave the scene one day.

I just think there’s more we can do to hasten this happening. Better and more supplies to Ukraine. Let the Dutch give them F16s. Ramp up artillery production. Do more to hinder oil exports. Even stronger sanctions. No trade whatsoever with them.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine doesn’t have to “win”. They just need to stop and hold the Russians. That’s a failure for Russia. Eventually they will be forced to give up. They can’t control the territories they’ve conquered. They don’t want to be there. They have no reason to participate. The Russian people will not put up with an indefinite war without victory and intensive casualties that never stop. Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for the independence of their nation. That’s 90% of it. At some point Russia will give up.

Russia is perfectly capable of controlling the territories. Sure there are some car bombings, and remaining people are still probably spying for Ukraine and giving information about valuable targets for artillery and drone attacks, but controlling territory isn't the same kind of problem for Russia as it would be for, say, USA. They don't have to care about human rights or civil society, and can do mass population transfers like they're doing now in Enerhodar. And whoever remains is going to be subject to constant Russian propaganda.

the longer Russia occupies the territory, the more likely it's going to be a permanent situation. Not just in the territories themselves, but in the eyes of the world and even Ukrainians. Sure, 90% of Ukraine now supports liberating the land. But what about next year? The year after that? Ten years from now? Many in Ukraine already think that they could live with Russia keeping Donbas and Crimea.

Freezing the conflict in current position (more or less) wouldn't be a loss for Russia, it's what I think that's now what Putin is aiming for after the original goal of controlling the entire country has slipped from his fingers. What would be a problem to him is if the war stays hot and there is constant attrition, constant price to be paid. The only path to taking their land back for Ukraine is if they can stop their own bleeding, and continue to cause massive casualties to their enemy.

 

[Copernicus]

the longer Russia occupies the territory, the more likely it's going to be a permanent situation. Not just in the territories themselves, but in the eyes of the world and even Ukrainians. Sure, 90% of Ukraine now supports liberating the land. But what about next year? The year after that? Ten years from now? Many in Ukraine already think that they could live with Russia keeping Donbas and Crimea.

Bear in mind that Russia is in Ukraine fighting a revanchist war to reclaim at least  Novorossiya. They see themselves as retaking territory that they lost when Ukraine seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991, and they hold a large chunk of it now. Well over ten years later, they are fighting to regain that "lost territory". Look on the map in Wikipedia at what that entire territory covers from the perspective of history. They aren't done with it. When the puppet state of Donetsk declared its independence from Ukraine, they adopted the name "Novorossiya". It is the name that Putin started using to refer to that area in 2014. I'm sure he would like to retake all of Ukraine for Russia, but he would likely be content to just expand to the historical limits of Novorossiya. They aren't there yet.

Ukrainians are now engaged in a blood feud with Russia. Revanchist feuds don't fade that quickly. Not for Russians, and certainly not for Ukrainians. They want Crimea back, not to mention all of eastern Ukraine, and they want it badly. Their revanchism is every bit a match for Russian revanchism. Ten years from now, passions will not have faded in Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

More detail on the Russian losses in Bakhmut.

From Kyiv Post
Fierce Ukrainian Counterattack Takes Ground in Bakhmut – Prigozhin Claims ‘Betrayal’

A little training goes a long way.

Drone video published by Azov’s media section showed well-equipped troopers aboard US-made, Vietnam-era M-113 armored personnel carriers charging up to flattened Russian defensive positions, debarking, and executing textbook fire-and-movement assaults backed by automatic weapons fire and hand grenades. One unit spokesmen claimed two companies from 72nd Infantry – usually between 200-300 men – were wiped out.

Meanwhile in Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear power plant operator warned Wednesday that Russia planned to evacuate 3,100 workers from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Energoatom posted on Telegram that “there is now a catastrophic lack of skilled personnel” at the plant, which is Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Energoatom said workers who signed employment contracts with affiliates of Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom to operate the power plant are set to be taken to Russia along with their families. Energoatom didn't say whether the employees would be forcibly moved out of the plant.
Russia has occupied the site since the early stages of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and fighting near the facility has occurred regularly.
Energoatom said the new evacuations of the Ukrainian personnel living in the town of Enerhodar “will exacerbate the already extremely urgent issue of having enough staff to ensure the safe operation” of the Zaporizhzhia plant.
The company said it will do its best to ensure safe operations by pulling together teams of staff who are in areas under Ukrainian control and specialists from other nuclear power plants in Ukraine.

Also

Turkey’s top rival candidate for president, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said he would steer Turkey closer to NATO and the West if he wins Sunday’s election. Kilicdaroglu also said he would breathe new life into Turkey’s democratic checks and balances, which have been eroded under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2003.

I hope KK wins. It's suppose to be close. That little act of God in the form of an earthquake did Erdogan no favors.

One other thing. It would be quite disheartening for Putin if Ukraine kicked their counteroffensive off with the retaking of Bakhmut.

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he is concerned his forces could become surrounded in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.
"In view of the lack of ammunition, the 'meat grinder' is now threatening to turn in the opposite direction," Yevgeny Prigozhin wrote on Telegram on Wednesday evening.
"There is now a serious danger of encirclement of Wagner due to the collapse of the flanks," Prigozhin wrote. "And the flanks are already showing cracks and crumbling."

 

[barbos]

Victoria Nuland is one such example.

Speaking of obsession...

Yes, she IS obsessed with destroying Russia.
Some say it has something to do with her grandparrents being from Odessa or something.
I don't see the connection. But I heard it somewhere.
Yes, that corrupt cunt and her corrupt piece of shit husband are obsessed.
She pretty much alone controls foreign affairs of this administration.
She decided to bomb NordStream.

If she wanted to destroy Russia, the target wouldn't be the NordStream pipeline.

You assume she is not dumb. But I am glad you at least agree that she hates Germany too.

 

[barbos]

Victoria Nuland is one such example.

Speaking of obsession...

Yes, she IS obsessed with destroying Russia.
Some say it has something to do with her grandparrents being from Odessa or something.
I don't see the connection. But I heard it somewhere.
Yes, that corrupt cunt and her corrupt piece of shit husband are obsessed.
She pretty much alone controls foreign affairs of this administration.
She decided to bomb NordStream.

An evil empire that willfully commits the atrocities Russia does, not out of necessity, but out of callous greed and cruel disregard for human life deserves to be destroyed. The Russian people don't deserve to be destroyed, but yes, Russia deserves to be destroyed.

If you cared for the lives of Ukranians dying in a cruel murderous Russian rampage you would take action against Russia. If you cared about the Russian children sent to die in trenches in Ukraine you would take action against the Russian government. But you don't. You cheer for dead Ukranians. You malign them with ridiculously false nicknames.

Are you a fool? Tricked by the silly and easily detected lies of Russia? Or are you of the same mettle as the empire you worship?

Do you deserve destruction too?

I hope you don't get what you deserve.

Cruel and murderous is your regime who decided to use Ukraine to attack Russia.

 

[barbos]

Victoria Nuland is one such example.

Speaking of obsession...

Yes, she IS obsessed with destroying Russia.
Some say it has something to do with her grandparrents being from Odessa or something.
I don't see the connection. But I heard it somewhere.
Yes, that corrupt cunt and her corrupt piece of shit husband are obsessed.
She pretty much alone controls foreign affairs of this administration.
She decided to bomb NordStream.

If she wanted to destroy Russia, the target wouldn't be the NordStream pipeline.

You assume she is not dumb. But I am glad you at least agree that she hates Germany too.

And by the way, it was a decent plan. It just did not work.

 

[bilby]

So yes, Russia technically invaded. But you are the one who provoked it. Responsibility is 100% on you.

Ah yes. The old "I didn't want to hit her, but she made me do it" defence, beloved of weak willed and cruel men who can't control their anger or their fists.

It's not going to get any sympathy for a man who beats his wife, and it sure as shit won't garner any for a nation that starts a war police action special military operation.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Even without knowing how kinzhal looked one can conclude it's obviously not a kinzhal.

Well what else could it be?

Anyways, the questions I asked myself after looking at the downed nose cone were, how thick is the nose cone of a hypersonic missile and of what material is it made to withstand these speeds?

One thing we can rely on is radar target data recorded by the Patriot system. Whether it is a Kinzhal or a Flying Purple People Eater, target speed will be recorded.

 

[Jayjay]

So a missile the US has no match for, a Russian Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot, so says Ukraine. Interesting. Well, they'll get all the data and see what's what with that I'm sure. Ukraine claims the Patriot put a hole in the dadgum thing. It would be nice to get more info on this in the coming days.

I would imagine that if a hypersonic missile approaches from the right angle, is caught by the radar early and, and the SAM battery is in the right position, then it can be shot down with a little bit of luck.

Or it means the software was already developed to counter hypersonic missiles. Similar to how Russia has probably been able o adjust the software on their SAM systems to better detect GMLRS rockets.

You are still discussing Kinzhal thing? even after Nazi AA people themselves admitted no such thing happened?

First, it wouldn't be the first time you've fallen for Russian propaganda nonsense about someone "admitting" something. Most of those times you've been wrong. So show some proof first. Who said so and where?

Second, even if that was the case, Kh-47 is basically an Iskander fired from a plane. They look exactly the same. There's no way to tell from debris which one it was. Only Ukraine and maybe US would know that. If Ukraine is saying it wasn't (which I don't believe they are), and US is saying it was, then it's more likely that Ukraine is correct and the US was just repeating open sources.

You really do live a a bubble.

Interestingly enough. Brain Dead former boxer mayor of Kiev twitted a selfie with allegedly kinzhal's nose cone.

I don't think that's the nose cone. That's the war head that's inside the nose cone.

Even without knowing how kinzhal looked one can conclude it's obviously not a kinzhal.

And it does not look like kinzhal at all. Ukrainians and their western "friends" were really turned into brainless imbeciles believing even the most outrageous BS their criminal governments subject them to.

I'm keeping an open mind that you might be right.

But just because Russian propaganda says that it's not a Khinzal, doesn't make it true. Russia has been caught lying so many times before, that I'm not going to believe their nonsense. To me, the pieces that were shown seem to match the size and shape of the warhead. Can't be sure about other parts. And they look very much like a Kh-47 missile that fell in Russia last year:

 

[Harry Bosch]

So a missile the US has no match for, a Russian Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot, so says Ukraine. Interesting. Well, they'll get all the data and see what's what with that I'm sure. Ukraine claims the Patriot put a hole in the dadgum thing. It would be nice to get more info on this in the coming days.

I would imagine that if a hypersonic missile approaches from the right angle, is caught by the radar early and, and the SAM battery is in the right position, then it can be shot down with a little bit of luck.

Or it means the software was already developed to counter hypersonic missiles. Similar to how Russia has probably been able o adjust the software on their SAM systems to better detect GMLRS rockets.

You are still discussing Kinzhal thing? even after Nazi AA people themselves admitted no such thing happened?
You really do live a a bubble.

Interestingly enough. Brain Dead former boxer mayor of Kiev twitted a selfie with allegedly kinzhal's nose cone.
Even without knowing how kinzhal looked one can conclude it's obviously not a kinzhal.

And it does not look like kinzhal at all. Ukrainians and their western "friends" were really turned into brainless imbeciles believing even the most outrageous BS their criminal governments subject them to.

Are you unable to discuss any Ukranian without a childish insulting nickname? I always respect people willing to fight for their home. He's serving his country.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And it does not look like kinzhal at all. Ukrainians and their western "friends" were really turned into brainless imbeciles believing even the most outrageous BS their criminal governments subject them to.

All claims in war must be taken with a truck load of salt. The only truth that I find easy to accept in all of this, is that Russia has made almost no progress and are in a Great War like stalemate with Ukraine, fighting over scraps of land. So the imbeciles with their imbecilic support are apparently holding their own.

 

[Elixir]

the imbeciles with their imbecilic support are apparently holding their own.

Yabut consider ... against WHAT?
The most disappointingly hapless, corrupt military, led by the most delusional dictator on the planet. I know it would not be in the interest of America to summarily finish him off, but I hope they do before Trump sends in American troops to save Russia from democracy.

 

[TV and credit cards]

GB sending longer range (250km) air launched missiles to Ukraine.

UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine