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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
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TV and credit cards
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So a missile the US has no match for, a Russian Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot, so says Ukraine. Interesting. Well, they'll get all the data and see what's what with that I'm sure. Ukraine claims the Patriot put a hole in the dadgum thing. It would be nice to get more info on this in the coming days.
Time was, I believe there was an agreement or an understanding between the US, China, and Russia not to develop hypersonic missiles. Well China lied. And we all knew as sure as God made little green apples Russia would lie. So I guess the good guys (that's US) knew the bad guys (China and Russia) were lying and while not developing hypersonic missiles did develop a means to defend against them. And now we are developing said missiles. And so it goes.
Time was, I believe there was an agreement or an understanding between the US, China, and Russia not to develop hypersonic missiles. Well China lied. And we all knew as sure as God made little green apples Russia would lie. So I guess the good guys (that's US) knew the bad guys (China and Russia) were lying and while not developing hypersonic missiles did develop a means to defend against them. And now we are developing said missiles. And so it goes.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
I really hope this will happen. We could all use a good laugh.
Kadyrov made the offer, but maybe did not expect it to be agreed to. Prigozhin has said that he believes Kadyrov's Akhmat Battalion will "take Bakhmut." So he is saying that the Chechens should take over his positions. Poetic justice would be for the Chechens to shoot those trying to retreat from the Bakhmut battle.
Wagner chief to Moscow: Swap in Chechens in Bakhmut
Jayjay
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I would imagine that if a hypersonic missile approaches from the right angle, is caught by the radar early and, and the SAM battery is in the right position, then it can be shot down with a little bit of luck.
Or it means the software was already developed to counter hypersonic missiles. Similar to how Russia has probably been able o adjust the software on their SAM systems to better detect GMLRS rockets.
bilby
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You only need a supersonic projectile to achieve that. Most First World War era light field artillery fired supersonic projectiles, most famously the German 77mm Fk96, which was introduced in 1896, and significantly improved as the n.A variant in 1905. The poor bastards on the receiving end called them "Whizz-Bangs", because you heard the shell pass overhead before you heard the gun firing.
If you heard the bang, it had already missed you.
SLD
Contributor
Well, it hasn’t happened yet. We’ll see if they really get the ammunition promised. They’ll get half of it and then start whining again. I suspect that the MoD wants and needs them to fail. Bakhmut will go on and on, an effective meat grinding stale mate. If I were Russian MoD, that’s how I would play it. Save their ammo to blunt a Ukrainian offensive, in the meantime let Wagner tie down thousands of Ukrainian troops. Might actually work.
But Loren could be right, Ukraine has no intention of launching a major attack. It’s all a ploy. A psychological war to get Russian soldiers to surrender before they are killed.
In the end someone thought is going to have to break the stalemate. Maintaining the fight indefinitely is to no one’s advantage. Putin is just hoping to outlast Biden in 2024, and hoping the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine. But why would they? They’re not dying. Seeing Russia slowly bleed itself out, we’re not going to tire of that. And barring a major catastrophe, Biden should win.
But all of this is why we need to stop dribbling in the aid to Ukraine and really give them all that they need. There’s no reason why we cannot give them 1,000 Abrams. We have plenty in storage. There’s no other threat we have where tanks are going to be used. So give them 1,000, or even 2,000. Give them far more artillery, and far more ammunition for their weapons. We should be depleting our own ammunition stocks throughout Europe. NATO won’t need any ammunition if Russia is defeated. Give them the planes they need. F-16’s galore. What the fuck would we do with F-16’s without Russia? Wouldn’t fucking need them. Hell, give them stealth air planes. Let them hit Russian bases inside Russia. What the fuck is Russia going to do about it? Attack the US? Bullshit.
if we did all of that, Russia would be in utter chaos. There forces would be reeling backwards, and Putin would be dead. After that we can start to rebuild
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
The more I think about this Prigozhin drama, the more it seems to me that it was really about the rivalry between Gerasimov and the general in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine that he replaced, General Sergei Surovikin. Putin replace Surovikin after the Russians suffered quite a few high profile defeats. Prigozhin has been attacking both Shoigu and Gerasimov repeatedly as having deliberately cut off ammo supplies to the Wagner mercenaries. Now Prigozhin has announced that it is Surovikin himself who is newly appointed as liaison between Wagner and the regular army. Maybe Prigozhin isn't looking to replace Putin with himself so much as sponsor Surovikin as his champion. Shoigu, who is known to have serious health problems, may consider Gerasimov to be his own champion. Putin is probably just playing them off against each other, because he needs both of them but doesn't want to be pushed out by either.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
ha ha. So retarded
www.lemonde.fr
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
www.lemonde.fr
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
ha ha. So retarded
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
Not really. These protests are staged primarily for photo and video ops that can be amplified on social media. They are designed to build up resentment against governments that support Ukraine and to create an impression in people's minds that there is significant public resentment against that support. The Russians are pretty good at using social media effectively to create social discord.
Tigers!
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The communists are(were) very good with their front organisations. Putin is just continuing a successful tacticha ha. So retarded
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
Not really. These protests are staged primarily for photo and video ops that can be amplified on social media. They are designed to build up resentment against governments that support Ukraine and to create an impression in people's minds that there is significant public resentment against that support. The Russians are pretty good at using social media effectively to create social discord.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
The communists are(were) very good with their front organisations. Putin is just continuing a successful tacticha ha. So retarded
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
Not really. These protests are staged primarily for photo and video ops that can be amplified on social media. They are designed to build up resentment against governments that support Ukraine and to create an impression in people's minds that there is significant public resentment against that support. The Russians are pretty good at using social media effectively to create social discord.
But there is added significance to these photos in terms of amplifying false memes in social media. By taking photos and videos of these people holding up signs, they can use those images to give the impression of large rallies against support for Ukraine. This is not only useful to sow dissension abroad, but also for consumption inside Russia, which is constantly being fed a false narrative of what is going on in the outside world.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
The communists are(were) very good with their front organisations. Putin is just continuing a successful tacticha ha. So retarded
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
Not really. These protests are staged primarily for photo and video ops that can be amplified on social media. They are designed to build up resentment against governments that support Ukraine and to create an impression in people's minds that there is significant public resentment against that support. The Russians are pretty good at using social media effectively to create social discord.
Come on. This is not a continuation of an old tactic. This is a new tactic. The communists managed to fool a lot people in the 1920'ies to 1970'ies. By the 80'ies all the cleverly orchestrated lies had been revealed. Western communists at that point had all turned cynical. All the idealism and illusions were shattered. This was BEFORE the Internet. The method used was to directly fund local socialist clubs and invite them to luxurious holidays in the Soviet union. And then they threatened them with removing the funding unless they became Stalin's mouthpieces. Creating the illusion that these "local" socialist clubs were actually local. Today we are all aware that this is how they warped the western leftist agenda. That way of swaying public opinion is completely dead today.
The Internet created a completely new way of media communication. Putin's mastery of social media is a completely new thing. It can be compared to Hitlers early adoption of the radio. Or Napoleon's early embrace of informing news papers, of his (mostly fictional) exploits directly.
People who manage to crack the mechanic of a new form of media can have a tremendous impact on public opinion. Putin's media genious is basically to weaponise 4Chan-trolling. Absolutely brilliant. But its NOT the continuation of anything.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
The communists are(were) very good with their front organisations. Putin is just continuing a successful tacticha ha. So retarded
How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine
Social media posts claim to show demonstrations against Ukraine and NATO in Paris, Brussels, The Hague and beyond. Internal documents from Russian intelligence services, obtained by Le Monde and its partners, show that they were staged by Russia.
Not really. These protests are staged primarily for photo and video ops that can be amplified on social media. They are designed to build up resentment against governments that support Ukraine and to create an impression in people's minds that there is significant public resentment against that support. The Russians are pretty good at using social media effectively to create social discord.
But there is added significance to these photos in terms of amplifying false memes in social media. By taking photos and videos of these people holding up signs, they can use those images to give the impression of large rallies against support for Ukraine. This is not only useful to sow dissension abroad, but also for consumption inside Russia, which is constantly being fed a false narrative of what is going on in the outside world.
But I maintain. The problem in Russia isn't a lack of correct information. It's one of values. The Russians know they're being lied to. They trust that Putin is a good leader. But Russians don't trust the facts they are given by that same leader. Russians are far too cynical for that. If you think Russians can be swayed by facts, I think you're fighting an already lost battle.
These Putin fake news trolling actions are just to make us exhausted and stop caring. It's just to spam the news media with triggering crazy shit. The same tactic spam-Twitter Trump used. Just stop engaging with the facts. It's a waste of time. You can't win a debate with someone who doesn't care what they say or what you say.
That's what I've been led to believe anyway.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Fair enough. I maintain that your broad brush has arbitrarily painted out a huge number of Russians who do not trust the government narrative. You are overgeneralizing to make your point. The fact is that we just don't know what public opinion really is in Russia, and none of us can logically make sweeping generalizations about what "Russians" believe on the basis of the very small, skewed sampling of Russians that we've interacted with. I think you've done that too much in the past to support your generalizations, and you ought to step back from that tendency.
SLD
Contributor
Low on tanks. And too fucking depressing.
SLD
Contributor
So now ISW is saying that Prigozhin is not getting the ammunition he requested, he was forced to back down on a threat of being charged with treason. One wonders though if he can hold on to Bakhmut without the ammunition. The next couple of days will be crucial.