How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Reports of Russian casualties as they 'withdraw through their own minefields' driven back by Ukraine's counteroffensive, UK intel says
noting
Ministry of Defence on Twitter: "Latest Defence Intelligence ...

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 June 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: (link)

#StandWithUkraine

Linking to
Defence Intelligence – communicating probability - GOV.UK

Then
Ministry of Defence on Twitter: "(1/4) In the last 48 hours ..." / Twitter

(1/4) In the last 48 hours significant Ukrainian operations have been taking place in several sectors of eastern and southern Ukraine.

(2/4) In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defences. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower.

(3/4) Russian performance has been mixed: some units are likely conducting credible manoeuvre defence operations while others have pulled back in some disorder, amid increased reports of Russian casualties as they withdraw through their own minefields.

(4/4) The Russian Airforce has been unusually active over southern Ukraine, where the airspace is more permissive for Russia than in other parts of the country. However, it remains unclear whether tactical airstrikes have been effective.

In Twitter, I'm seeing unconfirmed claims that Ukraine has gotten over halfway to Tokmak in the south.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region - BBC News

Ukraine says it has liberated three villages in the south-east of the country in the first victories of its much-anticipated counter-offensive.

Footage on social media showed Ukrainian troops celebrating in the neighbouring settlements of Blahodatne and Neskuchne in the Donetsk region.

Kyiv's deputy defence minister said nearby Makarivka was also taken.

On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the counter-offensive had begun.

I could locate Makarivka with Google Maps, but I had trouble with the other two until I looked near that town with Google Maps -- there are towns named Blahodatne and Neskuchne that are very near it.

It's about 2/5 of the way from Donetsk to Zaporizhia, and it is around 112 km / 70 mi due north of Berdyansk, on the Sea of Azov.

They started from Velyka Novosilka, only 8 km / 5 mi to the north.

From the maps at
War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have liberated the settlements of Neskuchne and Blahodatne on the southern front.
(pix link)" / Twitter

On the way is a town called Bilmak, and Mariupol is a little to the east of Berdyansk.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Any theories on how this will end?

Putin will have to find something to spin into a win and/or find a scapegoat.

Who thinks Prigozhin will be the scapegoat?

I do hope this offensive will be successful

Who can possibly say? It all depends on how successful Ukraine is over time. What happens in Russia if Ukraine retakes Crimea? If Lushanko dies and there is a mass revolt in Belorussia? If Joe Biden finally reads the riot act to Putin? Continued genocidal missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian population will force Nato to act? Magic Eight Ball says, "Unclear. Try again later"

Ukraine has now liberated villages halfway to Mariupol. If the plan is to cut off Crimea from Russia, it's going extremely well for Ukraine.


BBC News - Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

The four small villages are the first officially publicised gains in Kyiv's counter-offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

It was speculated in advance that this was the plan, Russia saw this as Ukraines most likely target, and Russia still couldn't stop them.

Things are looking really bad for Putin now

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Things are looking really bad for Putin now

He needs to escape to Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine has now liberated villages halfway to Mariupol. If the plan is to cut off Crimea from Russia, it's going extremely well for Ukraine.


BBC News - Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

The four small villages are the first officially publicised gains in Kyiv's counter-offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

It was speculated in advance that this was the plan, Russia saw this as Ukraines most likely target, and Russia still couldn't stop them.

Things are looking really bad for Putin now

Russia has done all it can do conventionally. They’re dug in and both side will slowly bleed out while Ukraine painstakingly uproots the Russians from Ukraine. Hopefully Ukraine can be successful enough hitting their supply lines to starve them out; food, ammo, everything, so they have to up and leave.
I think Biden is finally breaking down on sending longer range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine to help things along. These are plug and play in the current HIMARS Ukraine has.
My concern is what to do about the cheap Iranian drones Russia is using. I would think this will exhaust our supply of expensive missiles eventually. These drones need to be taken out at the source.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

My concern is what to do about the cheap Iranian drones Russia is using. I would think this will exhaust our supply of expensive missiles eventually. These drones need to be taken out at the source.

The same tactic Hitler used against England. Not surprising FuhrerPutin would use the same tactic.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine has now liberated villages halfway to Mariupol. If the plan is to cut off Crimea from Russia, it's going extremely well for Ukraine.

BBC News - Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

The four small villages are the first officially publicised gains in Kyiv's counter-offensive.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Halfway to Mariupol" is an extremely optimistic way to describe the situation, especially given the map in that article:

View attachment four_villages_regained_by_ukrainian_forces.webp

The counter-offensive seems to be going about as well as I anticipated: nowhere. But it could be that these are just probing attacks to find an opening, and the actual reserve is yet to be used.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

 

[Jayjay]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

 

[SLD]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

Again, your continued negativity is misplaced. Ukraine may not achieve the same result as with Kharkiv, but it is advancing and if it achieves a breakthrough, they will be hard to stop.

Regardless, they don’t have to achieve a total victory. All they really have to do is demonstrate that they can take territory, and that the Russians can’t defeat them. Putin’s failure will be demonstrated to all. And that is what will end this war.

 

[Jayjay]

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

Again, your continued negativity is misplaced. Ukraine may not achieve the same result as with Kharkiv, but it is advancing and if it achieves a breakthrough, they will be hard to stop.

Regardless, they don’t have to achieve a total victory. All they really have to do is demonstrate that they can take territory, and that the Russians can’t defeat them. Putin’s failure will be demonstrated to all. And that is what will end this war.

If "demonstrating Putin's failure to all" were enough to end the war, it would be over already.

Bakhmut and how Russia got bogged down there shows that it's not enough to make a breakthrough in one area, if the enemy has entrenched itself. Which Russia has done. Ukraine's counter-attack will burn through the men and equipment it has received so far, ... unless what we're seeing so far has been just a feint, and the real counter-attack will happen somewhere else.

That's not to say Russia isn't suffering and taking casualties in the process. But not enough for Ukraine to take back its land. Ultimately, the war will end when both sides are exhausted enough to settle for what they've got. I think Russia is already at that point, but Ukraine and its allies are not.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

Again, your continued negativity is misplaced. Ukraine may not achieve the same result as with Kharkiv, but it is advancing and if it achieves a breakthrough, they will be hard to stop.

Regardless, they don’t have to achieve a total victory. All they really have to do is demonstrate that they can take territory, and that the Russians can’t defeat them. Putin’s failure will be demonstrated to all. And that is what will end this war.

If "demonstrating Putin's failure to all" were enough to end the war, it would be over already.

Bakhmut and how Russia got bogged down there shows that it's not enough to make a breakthrough in one area, if the enemy has entrenched itself. Which Russia has done. Ukraine's counter-attack will burn through the men and equipment it has received so far, ... unless what we're seeing so far has been just a feint, and the real counter-attack will happen somewhere else.

That's not to say Russia isn't suffering and taking casualties in the process. But not enough for Ukraine to take back its land. Ultimately, the war will end when both sides are exhausted enough to settle for what they've got. I think Russia is already at that point, but Ukraine and its allies are not.

It makes me think of how the Roman empire was born and grew. The secret sauce to Roman domination was their refusal to ever admit defeat. They would keep raising new legions to throw into battle. What made their enemies admit defeat was the realization that Rome would just keep going until Rome itself was utterly depopulated. The saying of the day (from the king of the Caledoians) was that Rome "creates and desert and calls it peace".

Russia under Putin seems to be the same kind of thing.

 

[bilby]

What made their enemies admit defeat was the realization that Rome would just keep going until Rome itself was utterly depopulated. The saying of the day (from the king of the Caledoians) was that Rome "creates and desert and calls it peace".

Perhaps; But the Caledonians never gave up, and they pushed the Romans back to the Antonine Wall (between the Firths of the Clyde and the Forth, roughly between modern Glasgow and Edinburgh), and then to Hadrian's Wall (between the Solway Firth and the Tyne Estuary at South Shields, somewhat south of the modern border between England and Scotland).

Tacitus puts that slogan in the mouth of Caractacus, but there's a significant school of thought that says he made up both the leader of the Caledonians, and his now famous speech.

If the Russians start building a massive wall to try to keep the Ukrainian Army out of Donetsk Oblast, then you will know they've given up on conquering Ukraine.

 

[steve_bank]

I watched shows on Lenin, Stalin, Gorbachev and Yeltsin.

Putin and Russian politics are the same as has been since the Russian Revolution.

There seems to be a built n Russian cultural harshness and brutality.

The invasion of Ukraine is a continuation of Russian culture and politics.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

Just because they have built up their defensive line more doesn't mean they can't be rolled up if it can be penetrated somewhere. They also have poor mobility, if Ukraine can block their logistics the troops past that point are effectively taken out of the picture.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

There is a long road from Tokmak South. The Russians have dug trenches all along the West side. And I suspect mined the East side. It is not going to be a cake walk by any means.

On the other hand, videos show Ukraine is using M30A1 projectile war heads. These contain 186,000 tungsten BBs. An airburst can cover an area 4 X the area of a football field. I have no idea how many Ukraine has. But that should make trenches death traps.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I have seen an analysis of the Russian lines near Tokmok. The satellite photos show strong defenses along the border, little beyond that South. If Ukraine can break through the lines, there is not much to stop them. Russia is very short of IFVs and trucks so there is a parity here. The Ukrainians are far better trained than the mobiks. Recent reports of Russian munitions that explode prematurely in use may play a role here as Russia relies heavily on artillery. And another Russian locomotive has been destroyed, preventive a train load of fuel from reaching Crimea. There are extensive Russian lines, but if poorly trained and armed troops are stuck in trenches 40 miles from where they are needed, they don't matter in the battle for Crimea.

Exactly. The Russian lines have been hollowed out--crack them anywhere and pour through, they can't counter effectively. It's the same thing we saw last year--wait until they're sufficiently hollowed out then make big gains before they can establish new lines.

That's not at all like last year. The Kharkiv operation was successful because Russia didn't have enough manpower at the time, and Ukraine had an element of surprise. This time neither of those is true. Russia has been building defensive lines for the past year, all the way to Crimea, and they have mobilized and withdrawn from Kherson which means less ground to cover.

I have my doubts whether Ukraine's training and capabilities for combined arms are up to the task even if they did have enough vehicles and artillery rounds, which they don't.

Just because they have built up their defensive line more doesn't mean they can't be rolled up if it can be penetrated somewhere. They also have poor mobility, if Ukraine can block their logistics the troops past that point are effectively taken out of the picture.

Ukraine is currently hitting the most expected and best fortified spots. The front is hundreds of kilometers long. Russia may have put in much defensive fortifications on top of what already was there but their army still sucks and is stretched for those hundreds of kilometers. Much of those defenses were built by contractors who, surprise, surprise, were treated like shit. There are observations that many of the "dragon's teeth" are not properly reinforced or in some cases not sunk into the ground at all.
It's just a matter of time.

 

[ZiprHead]

There is a long road from Tokmak South. The Russians have dug trenches all along the West side. And I suspect mined the East side. It is not going to be a cake walk by any means.

On the other hand, videos show Ukraine is using M30A1 projectile war heads. These contain 186,000 tungsten BBs. An airburst can cover an area 4 X the area of a football field. I have no idea how many Ukraine has. But that should make trenches death traps.

YOWZA! That's gonna leave a mark.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Lots of marks actually.