How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Those Dangerous Windows in Putinstan - Another Russian Official Mysteriously Falls From Window to His Death

A federal judge in Russia was found dead after falling 12 stories from his apartment window according to local media reports.

The body of Artem Bartenev, 42, who served in the Kirovsky District Court in the city of Kazan, was found on Thursday morning near his property in the capital of the Russian republic of Tartarstan.

That's about a dozen people falling out of windows. Such a wonderful country in which to live.

 

[Copernicus]

The extent of the flooding from the Kakhovka dam can be seen in these before and after images:

Ukraine dam: Maps and before and after images reveal scale of disaster​

 

[lpetrich]

How Russia killed its tech industry | MIT Technology Review - "The invasion of Ukraine supercharged the decline of the country’s already struggling tech sector—and undercut its biggest success story, Yandex."

Seven days after the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Belugin packed up his and his family’s belongings, canceled the lease on his apartment in Moscow, withdrew his kids from kindergarten, and started a new life outside of Russia. Not long after that, he resigned from his position as chief commercial officer for small and medium businesses at Yandex, Russia’s equivalent to Google and the country’s largest technology company. The war meant that everything would change in Russia, both for him and for his company, Belugin said from his new home in Cyprus: “You have to accept the new rules of having no rules at all in Russia.”

Belugin was far from the only tech worker to leave. In the months after the invasion began, Russia saw a mass exodus of IT workers. According to government figures, about 100,000 IT specialists left Russia in 2022, or some 10% of the tech workforce—a number that is likely an underestimate. Alongside those exits, more than 1,000 foreign firms curtailed their operations in the country, driven in part by the broadest sanctions ever to be imposed on a major economy.

Reminds me of the scientists who fled Nazi Germany:

• Scientist Refugees and the Manhattan Project - Nuclear Museum
• Scientific Exodus - Nuclear Museum
• Book: Hilter's Gift: Scientists Who Fled Nazi Germany - PMC
• The scientific exodus from Nazi Germany | Physics Today | AIP Publishing

 

[lpetrich]

More:

In Russia, technology was one of the few sectors where people felt they could succeed on merit instead of connections. The industry also maintained a spirit of openness: Russian entrepreneurs won international funding and made deals all over the world. For a time, the Kremlin seemed to embrace this openness too, inviting international companies to invest in Russia.

But cracks in Russia’s tech industry started appearing well before the war. For more than a decade, the government has attempted to put Russia’s internet and its most powerful tech companies in a tight grip, threatening an industry that once promised to bring the country into the future. Experts MIT Technology Review spoke with say Russia’s war against Ukraine only accelerated the damage that was already being done, further pushing the country’s biggest tech companies into isolation and chaos and corralling its citizens into its tightly controlled domestic internet, where news comes from official government sources and free speech is severely curtailed.

“The Russian leadership chose a completely different path of development for the country,” says Ruben Enikolopov, assistant professor at the Barcelona School of Economics and former rector of Russia’s New Economic School. Isolation became a strategic choice, he says.

So Russia has been creating its own version of the Great Firewall of China.

 

[scombrid]

There were previous Ukrainian reports of Russia rigging the dam to blow.

That's right--last October. They claimed that Russia had mined the dam. Later on, Russians apparently opened the sluice gates to create flooding in some areas where it might impede Ukrainian advances. However, it is still entirely possible that the dam gave way because it was showing signs of instability. The Russian occupiers weren't prepared or motivated to do any needed repairs. It was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s. What could go wrong?

Yeah, the Russians dropped the reservoir 2 meters at the end of 2022 going into 2023. That volume of discharge needed to drop the reservoir that far that fast was probably way outside the design of the dam. It likely created some serious scour damage on the downstream side of the dam. The reservoir was a meter above ordinary full pool leading up to this failure following a very rapid rise in water level. It is a real possibility that they just broke it by operating it wrong and it collapsed.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia said it downed a Ukrainian drone over Crimea. It looks an awful lot like one of their own.

A Russian official in Crimea posted a photo of the debris, saying the drone was Ukrainian. But the wreckage closely resembles the Iranian Mohajer-6.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[lpetrich]

J-Lux352 on Twitter: "The incursions into #Russia itself show that their borders are more porous than they’re willing to admit, and they don’t seem to know how to spin this. Quite a climb down from its boasts of being the worlds second most powerful army. #r4today #ukrainecounteroffensive #Shebekino (pic link)" / Twitter
The picture says:

• 2021: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in the world
• 2022: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Ukraine
• 2023: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Russia

The third one is an overstatement, but not a great one in some parts of Russia, it seems.

With Probes of Russian Lines, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Takes Shape - The New York Times

In the south, Ukrainian soldiers are fighting on an unforgiving landscape, table-flat farmland with little cover for troops trying to advance.

Sixty miles away, they are attacking across the plains in a coal mining region dotted with slag heaps, pushing toward a strategic railway junction.

Farther east, they are targeting Russian positions on the hills outside Bakhmut, a city in ruins that fell to Russian forces last month after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war. Ukrainian forces have advanced by about a mile at some parts of the front line there, the military said on Saturday.

How they are fighting.

Already, Kyiv has deployed soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of nine units formed in October specifically to recapture occupied land and armed with M16 rifles instead of the Kalashnikovs that most Ukrainian soldiers use. On dusty farm roads, American Humvee vehicles bump along over the potholes, Ukrainian flags flapping from their antennas.

Ukraine’s army has sent forward German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, upgrading its aging fleet of Soviet-legacy armored vehicles. In all, Ukraine has received hundreds of Western tanks, armored vehicles and machines for breaching minefields.

Its forces have been confronting a formidable line of defenses built by the Russians over months with dense layers of mines, trenches and concrete tank barriers. In the tense fighting, some of the new Western weapons have been left behind or destroyed, their battered carcasses shown abandoned amid dirt-crusted fields cratered by artillery in Russian propaganda videos.

I follow Twitter on the war, and some Russia supporters have been gloating over the losses of Western APC's and tanks.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine war: Kyiv breaks through Russia's first defensive lines

kampfhex on Twitter: "@hoje_no the MoD released this video showing the destruction of a Russian base/munitions depot in Tavria, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, right next to Tokmak, seen by many as the main objective of the 1st phase of the Ukrainian offensive (vid link)" / Twitter

Mike Martin on Twitter: "The Ukrainians ..." / Twitter

The Ukrainians have opened up another front.

1 Towards Tokmak
2 Bahkmut
3 Vuhledar
4 Velyka Novosilka (new one)

1. From Orikhiv, Ukraine's armies would go to Tokmak, and then to Melitopol and then to the Azov Sea coast. That would cut off the part of the Russian army between Kherson and Crimea, and Ukraine might try to take that area next.

2. Though Ukraine lost Bakhmut, its armies are advancing to the north and south, presumably to encircle that town.

3. That is just west of Donetsk, and headed for Mariupol and Berdyansk. If Ukraine succeeds there, it may be in a position to encircle Donetsk. It will also cut off a larger part of Russia's southern armies.

4. This is between Orikhiv/Tokmak and Vuhledar.

I've seen the theory that Ukraine is probing Russia's defenses, looking for a weak spot.

 

[Harry Bosch]

J-Lux352 on Twitter: "The incursions into #Russia itself show that their borders are more porous than they’re willing to admit, and they don’t seem to know how to spin this. Quite a climb down from its boasts of being the worlds second most powerful army. #r4today #ukrainecounteroffensive #Shebekino (pic link)" / Twitter
The picture says:

• 2021: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in the world
• 2022: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Ukraine
• 2023: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Russia

The third one is an overstatement, but not a great one in some parts of Russia, it seems.

With Probes of Russian Lines, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Takes Shape - The New York Times

In the south, Ukrainian soldiers are fighting on an unforgiving landscape, table-flat farmland with little cover for troops trying to advance.

Sixty miles away, they are attacking across the plains in a coal mining region dotted with slag heaps, pushing toward a strategic railway junction.

Farther east, they are targeting Russian positions on the hills outside Bakhmut, a city in ruins that fell to Russian forces last month after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war. Ukrainian forces have advanced by about a mile at some parts of the front line there, the military said on Saturday.

How they are fighting.

Already, Kyiv has deployed soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of nine units formed in October specifically to recapture occupied land and armed with M16 rifles instead of the Kalashnikovs that most Ukrainian soldiers use. On dusty farm roads, American Humvee vehicles bump along over the potholes, Ukrainian flags flapping from their antennas.

Ukraine’s army has sent forward German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, upgrading its aging fleet of Soviet-legacy armored vehicles. In all, Ukraine has received hundreds of Western tanks, armored vehicles and machines for breaching minefields.

Its forces have been confronting a formidable line of defenses built by the Russians over months with dense layers of mines, trenches and concrete tank barriers. In the tense fighting, some of the new Western weapons have been left behind or destroyed, their battered carcasses shown abandoned amid dirt-crusted fields cratered by artillery in Russian propaganda videos.

I follow Twitter on the war, and some Russia supporters have been gloating over the losses of Western APC's and tanks.

Well, you could make a case that the Russian regular Army is the third best army in the Russia area! Wagner is kicking butt. The only Russians who have taken some land are Wagner troops.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Fourth best. Behind Ukrainian army, Wagner group and the Chechnians.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Any theories on how this will end?

Putin will have to find something to spin into a win and/or find a scapegoat.

Who thinks Prigozhin will be the scapegoat?

I do hope this offensive will be successful

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Any theories on how this will end?

Putin will have to find something to spin into a win and/or find a scapegoat.

Who thinks Prigozhin will be the scapegoat?

I do hope this offensive will be successful

Who can possibly say? It all depends on how successful Ukraine is over time. What happens in Russia if Ukraine retakes Crimea? If Lushanko dies and there is a mass revolt in Belorussia? If Joe Biden finally reads the riot act to Putin? Continued genocidal missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian population will force Nato to act? Magic Eight Ball says, "Unclear. Try again later"

 

[Elixir]

What happens in Russia if Ukraine retakes Crimea?

Don’t know but am eager to find out.
I doubt that Prigozhin will be the scapegoat, but Putin might be.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

J-Lux352 on Twitter: "The incursions into #Russia itself show that their borders are more porous than they’re willing to admit, and they don’t seem to know how to spin this. Quite a climb down from its boasts of being the worlds second most powerful army. #r4today #ukrainecounteroffensive #Shebekino (pic link)" / Twitter
The picture says:

• 2021: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in the world
• 2022: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Ukraine
• 2023: Russia is the 2nd strongest military in Russia

The third one is an overstatement, but not a great one in some parts of Russia, it seems.

With Probes of Russian Lines, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Takes Shape - The New York Times

In the south, Ukrainian soldiers are fighting on an unforgiving landscape, table-flat farmland with little cover for troops trying to advance.

Sixty miles away, they are attacking across the plains in a coal mining region dotted with slag heaps, pushing toward a strategic railway junction.

Farther east, they are targeting Russian positions on the hills outside Bakhmut, a city in ruins that fell to Russian forces last month after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war. Ukrainian forces have advanced by about a mile at some parts of the front line there, the military said on Saturday.

How they are fighting.

Already, Kyiv has deployed soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of nine units formed in October specifically to recapture occupied land and armed with M16 rifles instead of the Kalashnikovs that most Ukrainian soldiers use. On dusty farm roads, American Humvee vehicles bump along over the potholes, Ukrainian flags flapping from their antennas.

Ukraine’s army has sent forward German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, upgrading its aging fleet of Soviet-legacy armored vehicles. In all, Ukraine has received hundreds of Western tanks, armored vehicles and machines for breaching minefields.

Its forces have been confronting a formidable line of defenses built by the Russians over months with dense layers of mines, trenches and concrete tank barriers. In the tense fighting, some of the new Western weapons have been left behind or destroyed, their battered carcasses shown abandoned amid dirt-crusted fields cratered by artillery in Russian propaganda videos.

I follow Twitter on the war, and some Russia supporters have been gloating over the losses of Western APC's and tanks.

Well, you could make a case that the Russian regular Army is the third best army in the Russia area! Wagner is kicking butt. The only Russians who have taken some land are Wagner troops.

The border region that got invaded was considered safe. There was not much there to stop an incursion. Just a few poorly armed border guards. What this means is Russian had to rush troops and weapons to the area. Troops who now do little as the invaders pull back. Now Russia cannot rely on safe areas they don't have to guard.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

More bed news for Ruusian orcs.

.....
Quote: "The defence industry of the Russian Federation is affected by international sanctions. According to available information, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their self-detonation.
....

Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 have been prohibited for use in Russia due to their self-detonation.

www.yahoo.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

More bed news for Ruusian orcs.

.....
Quote: "The defence industry of the Russian Federation is affected by international sanctions. According to available information, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their self-detonation.
....

Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 have been prohibited for use in Russia due to their self-detonation.

www.yahoo.com

That is a shame.

On the bright side, Rheinmetall in Germany is expanding, employing an additional 2000 people and has increased production of tank shells from 60,000 to 240,000 per year. They plan on opening shop in Ukraine too. The Kremlin was none too happy to hear this.

Inside Germany's Rheinmetall As Weapons Firm Prepares Expansion Into Ukraine

German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall is rapidly expanding amid the Ukraine war, and plans are under way to set up operations inside Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

 

[Elixir]

The border region that got invaded was considered safe.

Even at that, it was just a face-saving “easy victory” charade after the embarrassment of the initial “special military exercise“. There was no overarching plan of which invading the eastern border was a part. The land bridge to Crimea was apparently a post hoc rationalization for that action. To say that it was poorly thought out would be a massive understatement. It might end up costing them Crimea.

 

[lpetrich]

WM on Twitter: "Very significant partisan attack being reported against the rail hub at Tokmak, The Rus rely almost exclusively on rail to move equipment." / Twitter
noting
(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Ukrainian partisans ..." / Twitter

Ukrainian partisans have reportedly cut the railway line in Russian-occupied Yakymivka, between the Russian-occupied cities of Dzhankoy and Melitopol/Tokmak. Explosions can be seen on pictures and it is claimed it is from the local rail bridge.

The main train artery is leading through this city (green line in my map).

Source:

#Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia #Yakimivka

 

[lpetrich]

Hellstorm901 on Twitter: "Saw some Russians claiming how Kadyrov is going to launch a massive attack with thousands of brand new soldiers
This is more evidence #Zaporizhzhia and #Tokmak is going badly for Russia
They made the same “Kadyrov is coming” claim with Kharkiv and #Kherson" / Twitter

Quick Explainer: Why Tokmak is as important as Izium, Lyman or Kupiansk - Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 11:04:21a PDT - The Daily Kos

Tokmak is not a large city. With a population of 29,573 in 2021, it is less than half the size of pre-war Bakhmut. It’s less than ¼ the population of the Upper East Side neighborhood in Manhattan. Bakhmut is the 58th largest city in Ukraine, Tokmak is the 138th.

On the other hand, Tokmak is one of the most heavily fortified Russian-occupied cities in Ukraine.

Then noting that people who follow this war have ended up knowing about such small towns as Izium, Lyman, and Kupyansk.

Izium is the largest of these cities with a pre-war population of 45,000, so none of these are particularly large cities. But each of them sit upon a critical rail line and a network of roads that make them far more important than the size of the city would suggest.

Then noting that Tokmak has 5 major roads coming out of it. Also that it is on a river and that an east-west rail line goes through it. West of Tokmak, that line connects with a north-south line that goes into Crimea. Taking Tokmak would make it much harder for Russia to supply Crimea.

"As has been noted many times by Kos and Mark, the Russians are incapable of supplying troops long-distance by road and truck. Russia is reliant on rail transport for supply."