How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Here is more recent reporting on the flood that claims the Russian destruction may have backfired if deliberate, because Russian positions were flooded on the left bank, which was lower than the right bank near the dam. However, parts of Kherson now need to be evacuated, and a lot of Ukrainian civilians have been put in danger.

It is also reported that the dam may not actually have been deliberately destroyed. It could have been a structural failure caused by Russian neglect of maintenance. Apparently, some structural failures had been recently observed.

In fact, evidence to conclusively support either side’s claim is yet to emerge, while analysis of videos of the dam, and its subsequent breach, and in particular examination of satellite imagery, suggest the collapse could have been the result of structural failure since the Russians occupied the dam in March last year.

See:

Exclusive: Ukrainian troops witnessed Russian soldiers swept away in dam breach floodwaters​

 

[ZiprHead]

Biden ‘knew of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream’ three months before explosion

Washington Post reports that European intelligence service told CIA Ukrainian military was planning attack

www.theguardian.com

 

[ZiprHead]

Baghdad Bob rises again.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Copernicus]

Biden ‘knew of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream’ three months before explosion

Washington Post reports that European intelligence service told CIA Ukrainian military was planning attack

www.theguardian.com

This looks like something that Russia would very much like us to believe, and the source seems to be just one unidentified individual allegedly from Ukraine. It is hard to believe that Ukraine would try something like this, given how it might affect the alliance with those it depends on for weapons to fight the invasion. The Baltic is pretty far away from Ukraine, and what happened to the story that the US itself destroyed the pipelines, using a NATO exercise for cover? And Zelensky wasn't told about it so that he would have deniability? Oh well, it's good to see that this stuff makes it into the press and goes viral on social media. That means that it must be credible, because Russian intelligence has never before hoodwinked the Western press or readers of internet blogs.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Here is more recent reporting on the flood that claims the Russian destruction may have backfired if deliberate, because Russian positions were flooded on the left bank, which was lower than the right bank near the dam. However, parts of Kherson now need to be evacuated, and a lot of Ukrainian civilians have been put in danger.

It is also reported that the dam may not actually have been deliberately destroyed. It could have been a structural failure caused by Russian neglect of maintenance. Apparently, some structural failures had been recently observed.

In fact, evidence to conclusively support either side’s claim is yet to emerge, while analysis of videos of the dam, and its subsequent breach, and in particular examination of satellite imagery, suggest the collapse could have been the result of structural failure since the Russians occupied the dam in March last year.

See:

Exclusive: Ukrainian troops witnessed Russian soldiers swept away in dam breach floodwaters​

There were previous Ukrainian reports of Russia rigging the dam to blow.

 

[Copernicus]

There were previous Ukrainian reports of Russia rigging the dam to blow.

That's right--last October. They claimed that Russia had mined the dam. Later on, Russians apparently opened the sluice gates to create flooding in some areas where it might impede Ukrainian advances. However, it is still entirely possible that the dam gave way because it was showing signs of instability. The Russian occupiers weren't prepared or motivated to do any needed repairs. It was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s. What could go wrong?

 

[bilby]

It was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s. What could go wrong?

In Soviet Union, river damns YOU!

 

[ZiprHead]

There were previous Ukrainian reports of Russia rigging the dam to blow.

That's right--last October. They claimed that Russia had mined the dam. Later on, Russians apparently opened the sluice gates to create flooding in some areas where it might impede Ukrainian advances. However, it is still entirely possible that the dam gave way because it was showing signs of instability. The Russian occupiers weren't prepared or motivated to do any needed repairs. It was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s. What could go wrong?

The dam ruptures we had here a couple years ago were definitely caused by neglect.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

More Russian stupid.

.....
The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a video that it says shows Ukrainian armored vehicles, including at least one German-made Leopard tank, being destroyed. However, the footage, which appears to have been shot via the targeting system on a Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter, shows anti-tank guided missiles being fired on civilian farming equipment. This would not be the first time Russian officials have tried to pass off sloppy propaganda like this.
.....

Russia Blows Up Farm Equipment, Claims They're Leopard Tanks

Russia's bogus 'Leopard hunt' in Ukraine is the latest in a long line of easily disproven propaganda claims.

news.yahoo.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

More Russian stupid.

.....
The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a video that it says shows Ukrainian armored vehicles, including at least one German-made Leopard tank, being destroyed. However, the footage, which appears to have been shot via the targeting system on a Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter, shows anti-tank guided missiles being fired on civilian farming equipment. This would not be the first time Russian officials have tried to pass off sloppy propaganda like this.
.....

Russia Blows Up Farm Equipment, Claims They're Leopard Tanks

Russia's bogus 'Leopard hunt' in Ukraine is the latest in a long line of easily disproven propaganda claims.

news.yahoo.com

If it’s mainly for more local consumption, for those who might already have their minds set on the reasons for and course of the war, for those who believe what they want to believe, I doubt the quality of the propaganda matters much. They could show a burning marshmallow over a campfire and call it a downed F-16.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ports in China's oil hub Shandong scrutinizing old tankers

Ports in China's Shandong province are demanding more detailed information about oil tankers that are more than 15 years old that call at their terminals, sources with knowledge of the matter said, potentially delaying the unloading of crude shipments in the world's biggest oil importer.

www.reuters.com

The article makes no mention of it but I wonder if thorough inspection and checking the insurance of old oil tankers might affect Russian crude shipments.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I did not know John Deere made Leopard II tanks. These tanks have amazing camoflauge!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ports in China's oil hub Shandong scrutinizing old tankers

Ports in China's Shandong province are demanding more detailed information about oil tankers that are more than 15 years old that call at their terminals, sources with knowledge of the matter said, potentially delaying the unloading of crude shipments in the world's biggest oil importer.

www.reuters.com

The article makes no mention of it but I wonder if thorough inspection and checking the insurance of old oil tankers might affect Russian crude shipments.

Garbage, badly maintained tankers under the flags of Liberia and Panama are notorious problems at sea.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Biden ‘knew of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream’ three months before explosion

Washington Post reports that European intelligence service told CIA Ukrainian military was planning attack

www.theguardian.com

This looks like something that Russia would very much like us to believe, and the source seems to be just one unidentified individual allegedly from Ukraine. It is hard to believe that Ukraine would try something like this, given how it might affect the alliance with those it depends on for weapons to fight the invasion. The Baltic is pretty far away from Ukraine, and what happened to the story that the US itself destroyed the pipelines, using a NATO exercise for cover? And Zelensky wasn't told about it so that he would have deniability? Oh well, it's good to see that this stuff makes it into the press and goes viral on social media. That means that it must be credible, because Russian intelligence has never before hoodwinked the Western press or readers of internet blogs.

This stuff is always peddled by intellectual beggars. FDR also knew the IJN was going to attack Pearl Harbor, in case anyone was wondering.

 

[ZiprHead]

I did not know John Deere made Leopard II tanks. These tanks have amazing camoflauge!

Deere is pretty intense about non-Deere people messing with their equipment. I hope Russia doesn't get into trouble with the John Deere corporation.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I did not know John Deere made Leopard II tanks. These tanks have amazing camoflauge!

Deere is pretty intense about non-Deere people messing with their equipment. I hope Russia doesn't get into trouble with the John Deere corporation.

They already have. Russian invaders stole some Ukrainian farmers' John Deere tractors. John Deere tractors are wired to the internet. John Deere remotely bricked the stolen tractors. These tractors cannot be run. This is a feature of John Deere meant to cripple the lucrative farm equipment theft problem.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Elixir]

I did not know John Deere made Leopard II tanks. These tanks have amazing camoflauge!

Deere is pretty intense about non-Deere people messing with their equipment. I hope Russia doesn't get into trouble with the John Deere corporation.

They already have. Russian invaders stole some Ukrainian farmers' John Deere tractors. John Deere tractors are wired to the internet. John Deere remotely bricked the stolen tractors. These tractors cannot be run. This is a feature of John Deere meant to cripple the lucrative farm equipment theft problem.

Pootey’s minions seem never to tire of making him look like a moron. Poor guy.

 

[scombrid]

By disrupting the water flow to Crimea, does Ukraine get a dividend from this in the added difficulty of Russians operating in Crimea?

Maybe I'm old school, but blowing up the raw water lines would probably result in actually achieving that goal and much less collateral damage to Ukraine,

Flying around google earth it a giant canal system that gravity feeds water south to what is a very irrigation intensive ag area. Lots of center pivot irrigation circles and such. Blowing an ag water supply in early June?