How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

No--weapons have flight times. Even with perfect feeds from unhappy people on the ground you can't drop a GPS guided weapon that takes a few minutes to reach it's target onto a vehicle.

With the M30A1 warhead with its 186,000 tungsten pellets, one does not need pinpoint accuracy against moving vehicles.

The vehicle will have moved far more than the burst radius of the M30A1.

That rather depends on whether it's moving, and how fast.

Targeting a truck on a road is an easier problem than targeting an aircraft at high altitude, or a merchant ship underway at long range, and the latter problem can be solved by mechanical "computers" of 1940s vintage.

If a rifleman can be trained to 'lead' a target to shoot down aircraft, then I am pretty sure an artilleryman can be similarly trained to hit a moving truck, particularly if said truck is restricted to a prepared road (either due to mud or mines).

Aircraft typically move at pretty steady speeds and the flight time of the shell will be in the 10-20s range. Trucks on roads have quite variable speeds and the flight time of the missiles is a few minutes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

For HIMARS in particular, it sounds like waste of precious rockets to try to hit single supply truck, instead of the place where it's going or coming from. Or other valuable targets. They don't have an infinite supply of M30 rockets, there has to be some prioritization. Same with precision artillery shells. A more surefire way to target the trucks would be remote-controlled drones.

Drones sound like a good weapon. Trucks don't have armor, drop something incindiary on them and they'll be in a bad way. Especially since they're frequently carrying things that will cook off.

 

[lpetrich]

I've been following the counteroffensive on Twitter -- not much progress in liberating territory, but the Ukrainian Army doesn't like to do human-wave attacks.

Ukraine right to be cautious with counter-offensive, top NATO official says | Reuters

Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russian forces is proving difficult due to landmines and other obstacles but Ukrainian forces are right to proceed cautiously, NATO's top military official said on Monday.

...
Ukrainian forces face defensive obstacles sometimes up to 30 kilometres deep as they attempt to break through Russian lines, Bauer said, drawing on a historic comparison to make his point.

"We saw in Normandy in the Second World War that it took seven, eight, nine weeks for the allies to actually break through the defensive lines of the Germans. And so, it is not a surprise that it is not going fast," he added.

Satellite images reviewed by Reuters in April showed Russia had built extensive fortifications, trenches, anti-vehicle barriers and other obstacles to slow any Ukrainian advance.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Pro-Russian sources confirm that all attempts to dislodge the Ukrainian troops from the Antonovsky bridgehead failed. They also admit that the situation is becoming a serious concern. #Ukraine #Kherson #Counteroffensive (pic link)" / Twitter
That bridge is across the Dnieper / Dnipro river at Kherson.

Elsewhere, the Ukrainian Army is slowly advancing in the south and on both sides of Bakhmut. Like:

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces widened their control at Lobkove/P'yatykhatky and reached the outskirts of Robotyne.
Furthermore, Russians have deployed their reserves to stop the Ukrainian advance while Ukrainians still haven't deployed their main force.
#Ukraine #Counteroffensive #Zaporizhia (pic link)" / Twitter

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces liberated Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast.
#Ukraine #Counteroffensive #Donetsk (pic link)" / Twitter

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces are increasingly making progress around Bakhmut. The southern flank has two more visually confirmed areas where Ukrainian forces punched through Russian lines. Ukrainian tanks are operating east of the Siverskyi Donets, increasing pressure on Klishchiivka.
Furthermore, the Kurdyumivka dam is under Ukrainian control.
#Ukraine #Bakhmut #Donetsk (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine Counteroffensive Failure Reports Are 'Nonsense': Ret. U.S. General

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Newsweek that concerns around Ukraine's slow progress and reported high casualties in the opening phase of the operation should be tempered by military realities, and not shaped by Russian disinformation.

"I'm reluctant to be too specific about what's going on right now," Hodges said ...

Ukraine commander irked by lack of arms promised for offensive | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera - "Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny says lack of fighter jets, artillery hampering offensive."

“I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough,” he told the newspaper, saying that it “pi**es me off” when some in the West complain about the slow start and progress of the push against Russian forces.

“They are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation,” he said.

He also complained he has a fraction of the artillery shells that Russia is firing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I've been following the counteroffensive on Twitter -- not much progress in liberating territory, but the Ukrainian Army doesn't like to do human-wave attacks.

Yeah, I don't expect to see much territorial gain. Ukraine isn't looking to conquer, they are looking for weakness. Once they find that weakness then you'll see them pour through and make gains.

 

[Jayjay]

I've been following the counteroffensive on Twitter -- not much progress in liberating territory, but the Ukrainian Army doesn't like to do human-wave attacks.

Yeah, I don't expect to see much territorial gain. Ukraine isn't looking to conquer, they are looking for weakness. Once they find that weakness then you'll see them pour through and make gains.

I think they're unlikely to find that kind of weakness. I think it's going to be just chipping away small bits if there is an opportunity. Because even if they manage to break through a minefield or get to a trench, there's just going to be more mines and more trenches behind that.

Ukraine doesn't have the weapons, ammunition or skills to conduct a large scale offensive, so they're doing what they can and hoping that it will slowly erode the Russian forces. It might, or it might not. If Russia can ramp up its artillery shell production faster than the west, then the tables could very well turn again.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia is apparently evacuating it's employees from the ZNPP:

Some Rosatom employees and collaborators leave ZNPP – Enerhodar mayor

Some Rosatom employees brought to the Zaporizhzhia NPP from Russia left Enerhodar city, as did some of the collaborators - ZNPP employees who signed contracts with the Russians. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said this in a comment to Ukrainian Radio, Ukrinform reports.

"As to the employees of the nuclear plant, it is true that some of the collaborators who signed contracts with Rosatom and held management positions in the fake company from Rosatom left the city... Also, some of the Rosatom personnel, who were brought from Russian nuclear power plants - there are not many of them, up to 100 specialists, left the city at the end of the previous week," Orlov said.

If true, it could mean that Russia is indeed planning some sort of sabotage that Ukraine has warned about for a while now. I don't think a complete Chernobyl-like meltdown is in the cards, because that would also hurt Russian presence in the occupied territories, but they might disable the plant and cause a local radiation leakage to make it hard to every take back into use again.

I for one won't be surprised one bit when Russia blows up the plant. And I'lll be equally unsurprised when they try to blame Ukraine for it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I've been following the counteroffensive on Twitter -- not much progress in liberating territory, but the Ukrainian Army doesn't like to do human-wave attacks.

Yeah, I don't expect to see much territorial gain. Ukraine isn't looking to conquer, they are looking for weakness. Once they find that weakness then you'll see them pour through and make gains.

I think Ukraine is on purpose trying to hide what they're doing. It's a pretty fundamental aspect of warfare. It's even in Sun Tzu's art of war. We won't know what they're trying to do until after they've done it.

But I think the amount of mines Russia has scattered about makes "pouring" difficult. It'll be slow progress, no matter where they find a weakness.

With the dam bursting, south of Kherson, I suspect the mines have moved creating as much problems for the Russians as for the Ukrainians.

 

[SLD]

So just spit balling here with another well informed friend. Is the key to Putin’s downfall in Belarus? Lukashenko is not in good health. Both politically and physically. He could die or have a serious health incident and Minsk could erupt. If he’s overthrown or dies, could the resulting fallout result in Russians erupting as well? If simultaneously Ukraine were to have a breakthrough and Russian casualties soared, would that be enough to see Putin overthrown?

If things continue as they are, an effective stalemate without large casualties, Putin can hold on. People aren’t going to risk rioting. There’s got to be major setbacks, and possibly a series of them to create a domino effect. And maybe the first to fall could be Belarus.

 

[Jayjay]

So just spit balling here with another well informed friend. Is the key to Putin’s downfall in Belarus? Lukashenko is not in good health. Both politically and physically. He could die or have a serious health incident and Minsk could erupt. If he’s overthrown or dies, could the resulting fallout result in Russians erupting as well? If simultaneously Ukraine were to have a breakthrough and Russian casualties soared, would that be enough to see Putin overthrown?

Lukashenko was sick at some point. But he seemed fine recently when making statements about Prigozhin. I wouldn't count on him dropping dead.

Also, I think that if he does die, then Russia will step in and install someone pro-Russian and maybe use their army to "keep the peace". Putin will not allow Minsk to fall into chaos. At least Lukashenko is a political player who in the past tried to play both sides between Russia and the west, and is kind of doing it now with acting as intermediary between Putin and Prigozhin, but whoever replaces him will be a 100% Putinist stooge.

 

[SLD]

Russia has lost 1/2 of its combat power effectiveness since February 2022.

Russia has 'lost nearly half' of its combat effectiveness since invading Ukraine, UK defense official says

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia was now "so weak" that it couldn't wage a military counteroffensive of its own.

www.businessinsider.com

Interesting article. Russia has lost anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 tanks. They can only produce 200/year. They've fired 10 million artillery shells, but can produce only one million a year. 43K KIA, and 180K WIA. Elite units have been utterly decimated. I’d like to see more about degradation of their air power capabilities.

Ukraine‘s counteroffensive appears to be designed to simply wear it down even further, rather than simply take more territory. At least for now. But they need more artillery shells. Minefields are a major threat to advances.

I also read another article about NATO’s inadequate ground forces. I’m like, fuck that. Give it all to Ukraine. Won’t need much if Ukraine defeats Russia. A severe Russian defeat will have enormous repercussions for geopolitical strategy. China will step back from the brink of invading Taiwan. Maybe, just maybe, Russia will reorganize itself and become a true democracy. Even join NATO! Most analysts say not.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Russia has lost 1/2 of its combat power effectiveness since February 2022.

Russia has 'lost nearly half' of its combat effectiveness since invading Ukraine, UK defense official says

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia was now "so weak" that it couldn't wage a military counteroffensive of its own.

www.businessinsider.com

Interesting article. Russia has lost anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 tanks. They can only produce 200/year. They've fired 10 million artillery shells, but can produce only one million a year. 43K KIA, and 180K WIA. Elite units have been utterly decimated. I’d like to see more about degradation of their air power capabilities.

Production aside, I think the issue is that they lost or used up all of that... and gain, well, it seems like very little territory at all.

Ukraine‘s counteroffensive appears to be designed to simply wear it down even further, rather than simply take more territory.

Indeed, Ukraine doesn't need to win anything, they just need Russia to go back to Russia.

I also read another article about NATO’s inadequate ground forces. I’m like, fuck that. Give it all to Ukraine. Won’t need much if Ukraine defeats Russia. A severe Russian defeat will have enormous repercussions for geopolitical strategy.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is still fighting a war with its hand behind its back. They haven't utilized a serious air attack, which they could do. Their army has been exposed as being useless, but they still have expensive toys that are not useless. They just can't afford to lose those, like tanks are a tad more expendable.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Let's keep in mind that Russia is still fighting a war with its hand behind its back.

And Ukraine is the one holding it there.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia has lost 1/2 of its combat power effectiveness since February 2022.

Russia has 'lost nearly half' of its combat effectiveness since invading Ukraine, UK defense official says

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia was now "so weak" that it couldn't wage a military counteroffensive of its own.

www.businessinsider.com

Interesting article. Russia has lost anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 tanks. They can only produce 200/year. They've fired 10 million artillery shells, but can produce only one million a year. 43K KIA, and 180K WIA. Elite units have been utterly decimated. I’d like to see more about degradation of their air power capabilities.

Production aside, I think the issue is that they lost or used up all of that... and gain, well, it seems like very little territory at all.

Ukraine‘s counteroffensive appears to be designed to simply wear it down even further, rather than simply take more territory.

Indeed, Ukraine doesn't need to win anything, they just need Russia to go back to Russia.

I also read another article about NATO’s inadequate ground forces. I’m like, fuck that. Give it all to Ukraine. Won’t need much if Ukraine defeats Russia. A severe Russian defeat will have enormous repercussions for geopolitical strategy.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is still fighting a war with its hand behind its back. They haven't utilized a serious air attack, which they could do. Their army has been exposed as being useless, but they still have expensive toys that are not useless. They just can't afford to lose those, like tanks are a tad more expendable.

Russia only had 1300 advanced aircraft At the start of the invasion. Oryx reports 77 fighter jets shot down. The problem with fighter aircraft is they are maintenance hungry. Not all are at all times flyable. And Russia has to maintain fighters around all of its borders, including with China.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I've been following the counteroffensive on Twitter -- not much progress in liberating territory, but the Ukrainian Army doesn't like to do human-wave attacks.

Yeah, I don't expect to see much territorial gain. Ukraine isn't looking to conquer, they are looking for weakness. Once they find that weakness then you'll see them pour through and make gains.

I think they're unlikely to find that kind of weakness. I think it's going to be just chipping away small bits if there is an opportunity. Because even if they manage to break through a minefield or get to a trench, there's just going to be more mines and more trenches behind that.

Ukraine doesn't have the weapons, ammunition or skills to conduct a large scale offensive, so they're doing what they can and hoping that it will slowly erode the Russian forces. It might, or it might not. If Russia can ramp up its artillery shell production faster than the west, then the tables could very well turn again.

Minefields and trenches are only useful if they have troops guarding them. Otherwise they are just delays.

 

[lpetrich]

Donald R. Koelper on Twitter: "Having suffered incredibly high casualty rates over the past seven months in their effort to take and hold #Bakhmut, Russian forces are now in potential danger of being outflanked and encircled there by a Ukrainian pincer movement. (pic link)" / Twitter

But overall, Ukraine is advancing very slowly.

 

[SLD]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/captured-russian-soldiers-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html

This is a good explanation of why Russia can’t win. Their people simply don’t want to be there and don’t want to fight.

 

[Jayjay]

Donald R. Koelper on Twitter: "Having suffered incredibly high casualty rates over the past seven months in their effort to take and hold #Bakhmut, Russian forces are now in potential danger of being outflanked and encircled there by a Ukrainian pincer movement. (pic link)" / Twitter

But overall, Ukraine is advancing very slowly.

Anyone can draw arrows on a map and claim it's a "pincer movement".

Russia has been reinforcing th Bakhmut front. I think Zelensky said Russia's got something like 180k soldiers there, which maybe an overstatement, but it's clear that dislodging them will be a difficult task. Take Kreminna for example. Ukraine has been skulking in the forest around the city since the counter-offensive last September. Bakhmut and its neighborhood could end up the same.

 

[Politesse]

I hear we're sending Ukraine cluster munitions now, like those we used to make so much of Southeast Asia unlivable for decades. Russia was, of course, never holding back in the first place. How history repeats itself.

Someone may "win" this war eventually, but no one will come out ahead.