How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wouldn't call what the British were doing at the end of the lease to be "tyranny." Hong Kong was a vestige of the empire, but had about as much to fear from "the crown" as Canada.

This. I was there in 75--while I had no experience with police states at that point I did later that year. Police states were nothing like anything I had seen before--thus Hong Kong was nothing like a police state. I can't truly compare it with China due to my age at the time and the time from then until I saw China, but my memory is of a high density but not oppressive society.

Also, a yardstick I had not developed at the time but I think is relevant: States that had fallen under an oppressive government generally degraded rather than advanced. Hong Kong wasn't degraded. (The first example I saw of what I'm talking about: Burma--there were still unrepaired bullet holes left over from WWII.)

 

[Patooka]

Putin purges top general in charge of war against Ukraine

Gerasimov has not been seen in public since the mutiny as Putin seeks to pin blame elsewhere for failings in the war.

metro.co.uk

I looks like Gerasimov is being redeployed to the nearest open window...

 

[bilby]

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

In principle, any military force that uses cluster munitions (or mines, for that matter) could keep track of where they are so that they can be easily cleared after the end of hostilities.

In practice, this almost never happens, or at least, not with a degree of diligence sufficient to be useful.

 

[Harry Bosch]

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

In principle, any military force that uses cluster munitions (or mines, for that matter) could keep track of where they are so that they can be easily cleared after the end of hostilities.

In practice, this almost never happens, or at least, not with a degree of diligence sufficient to be useful.

Well yea, but that because it's hostile invaders dropping cluster bombs in enemy lands. They're not going to care most of the time. And Russia has been using cluster bombs in Ukraine since the beginning. They don't give a fuck. But Ukranians will have a strong incentive of cleaning the areas in their land.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

If memory serves, that'd be in Ukraine. I have no idea why they are considering using these and why we'd supply them.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

If memory serves, that'd be in Ukraine. I have no idea why they are considering using these and why we'd supply them.

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

If memory serves, that'd be in Ukraine. I have no idea why they are considering using these and why we'd supply them.

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

And mines.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/10/russia-wagner-putin-prigozhin-meeting/

Don't worry, Putin is totally in charge.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and 35 of his commanders on June 29 in Moscow, five days after Wagner’s brief mutiny aimed at ousting the country’s top military officials, who were criticized by Prigozhin for botching the invasion of Ukraine.

In the meeting, which lasted about three hours, Putin “gave his assessment” of the private military company’s fighting record in Ukraine as well as its actions on the day of the mutiny, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday in a conference call with reporters.

“The president listened to the commanders’ explanations and offered them options for further employment options and combat application,” Peskov said, without offering more detail.

This is completely bizarre, timing wise. Why would the Kremlin release this now? Why in the bloody heck would 35 commanders willfully head to Moscow?! Putin wants to chat? The heck with that, I'm cashing out and moving to southern France!

There is nothing believable in the claims made by the Kremlin here... and that leads us to try to figure out why they are saying what they are saying. The first thing that comes to mind is that Putin is perceived to be weak because of all of this and they need to suggest he wasn't weak and he oversaw the whole thing and came up with a plan to deal with it.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Kyiv Post paints a promising picture of efforts in Bakhmut. Granted these stories often read like US Navy performance evaluations but it sounds like while they do not have the Russians physically surrounded, precision weapons are keeping anything from moving in or out of the city.

Russians Are ‘Trapped’ in Bakhmut, City Under Ukrainian Fire Control – Kyiv

The latest reports from Ukraine’s military paints a grim picture for Russian forces in the long-besieged city, with many already “engaged and neutralized.”

www.kyivpost.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/10/russia-wagner-putin-prigozhin-meeting/

Don't worry, Putin is totally in charge.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and 35 of his commanders on June 29 in Moscow, five days after Wagner’s brief mutiny aimed at ousting the country’s top military officials, who were criticized by Prigozhin for botching the invasion of Ukraine.

In the meeting, which lasted about three hours, Putin “gave his assessment” of the private military company’s fighting record in Ukraine as well as its actions on the day of the mutiny, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday in a conference call with reporters.

“The president listened to the commanders’ explanations and offered them options for further employment options and combat application,” Peskov said, without offering more detail.

This is completely bizarre, timing wise. Why would the Kremlin release this now? Why in the bloody heck would 35 commanders willfully head to Moscow?! Putin wants to chat? The heck with that, I'm cashing out and moving to southern France!

There is nothing believable in the claims made by the Kremlin here... and that leads us to try to figure out why they are saying what they are saying. The first thing that comes to mind is that Putin is perceived to be weak because of all of this and they need to suggest he wasn't weak and he oversaw the whole thing and came up with a plan to deal with it.

Yeah, no shit. Priggy and 35 of his commanders walk into a stone-walled courtyard at the Kremlin.
"Where is everybody? I thought we was having a meeting?"

 

[SLD]

Per our earlier discussion re the Russian Air Force, this article indicates it’s fucked.

The Russian Air Force Is Getting Destroyed in Ukraine

The Russian Aerospace Forces - or Air Force - are having a tough month. During the Wagner Group mutiny in June, the Russian air force lost eight aircraft in the span of a few hours.

www.19fortyfive.com

Surovkin, the head, is missing , they’re short parts die to sanctions and lost quite a few when Wagner revolted.

From a military perspective this war is actually interesting, and will be studied extensively in our War Colleges. It almost appears that we’ve returned to a sort of WWI type static warfare with defensive weapons able to blunt any attacking offensive forces. Tanks have not been able to make much of a difference and neither has air power. Artillery has been deployed effectively by both sides.

But that would be too simplistic of an analysis. Russia’s equipment and manpower may far outnumber Ukraine‘s, but they also have their hands tied dealing with a host of other security concerns, including internal threats.

 

[ZiprHead]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

Russians are using cluster munitions too.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This is completely bizarre, timing wise. Why would the Kremlin release this now? Why in the bloody heck would 35 commanders willfully head to Moscow?! Putin wants to chat? The heck with that, I'm cashing out and moving to southern France!

Just the latest news from Putinstan. I have read a few articles claiming that Russians are staging 120K troops east of Kreminna. If they push here Ukraine will have to respond by moving troops. There's also the possibility of another incursion from Belarus. But it sure is a bizarro world in Putinstan.

 

[lpetrich]

Why It's Hard for Ukraine's Counteroffensive to Break Russian Defenses

• Ukraine's counteroffensive in the east and south has moved at a slow but calculated pace.
• This is because Russia has built an elaborate network of defensive lines, a retired US general says.
• The fortifications include rows of trenches, anti-tank traps, minefields, barbed wire, and more.

Ukraine war: Kyiv claims counteroffensive boost, Putin met Wagner boss claim, '50,000 Russians dead' | Euronews

Ukrainian counteroffensive showing drive - Zelenskyy

Ukrainian troops have "taken the initiative" in their counteroffensive into Russian-occupied territory, Ukraine's president said on Sunday.

"All of us, we want to do it faster because every day means new losses of Ukrainians. We are advancing. We are not stuck," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an interview on the US's ABC news network.

He noted Ukraine's military had overcome a "kind of stagnation" in previous months.

Because it was the mud season - both spring and fall are mud seasons in Ukraine.

"We would all love to see the counteroffensive accomplished in a shorter period of time. But there is a reality. Today, the initiative is on our side."

Meanwhile, Moscow has said there is heavy fighting around the eastern city of Bakhmut, captured by Russian mercenary Wagner forces in May after months of gruelling warfare.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said one of his units was deployed in the area.

Furnished with advanced Western weapons and training, Ukraine launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive in June, aimed at capturing a cluster of villages in the southwest and retaking areas around Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces have encountered stubborn Russian resistance.

 

[lpetrich]

Turkey Agrees to Support Sweden’s NATO Bid - The New York Times - "The move came after the Turkish president’s surprising new demand that the European Union should move forward with his country’s bid to join the bloc, one day before a high-profile summit."

With Sweden joining, that leaves only Serbia, Austria, Switzerland, and Ireland not in NATO.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine to be offered ‘Nato-lite’ protection

It comes as Nato leaders were given a major boost on Monday, when Turkey finally dropped its veto to Swedish membership.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, announced the “historic step” after talks with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish president, on the eve of the summit.

A new defence scheme for Ukraine would create a legally binding pledge to continue existing military support for Kyiv, said diplomats involved in the discussions.

There would also be promises on training for Ukrainian troops, intelligence-sharing and assistance with bringing Kyiv’s armed forces in line with Nato standards.

This is great news for NATO and Ukraine and a fresh shit sandwich for Putin. I can eventually see Belarus becoming part of NATO once things change there.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Turkey Agrees to Support Sweden’s NATO Bid - The New York Times - "The move came after the Turkish president’s surprising new demand that the European Union should move forward with his country’s bid to join the bloc, one day before a high-profile summit."

With Sweden joining, that leaves only Serbia, Austria, Switzerland, and Ireland not in NATO.

Yea any country in Europe not wanting in NATO is foolish. Russia has threatened to wipe Ireland off the face of the nap several times.

 

[bilby]

With Sweden joining, that leaves only Serbia, Austria, Switzerland, and Ireland not in NATO.

Well Australia isn't in NATO either, and nor is China, so that claim seems a little premature (at least without the qualifier "of European nations")

 

[ZiprHead]

With Sweden joining, that leaves only Serbia, Austria, Switzerland, and Ireland not in NATO.

Well Australia isn't in NATO either, and nor is China, so that claim seems a little premature (at least without the qualifier "of European nations")

What part of North Atlantic do you not get?