I'd say Russia is technically in a better position to wage a war on attrition, but it is hard to be an invading force and doing it that way... back home. Without Wagner, Russia is going to lose some pop. Progress with Wagner wasn't great. I can't imagine it'd improve without them.
Russia's biggest problem isn't the fight, it is the reality that they completely and utterly lack any capacity to occupy Ukraine. Russia usually just gets a despot to do the dirty work, but the despot needs a secret police and military to enforce despotism... not seeing where that is coming from, unless Wagner comes in after they take Kyiv because Ukraine gives up.
While I agree that Russia isn't making any progress, I don't think in war of attrition they have to. They just need to hold on to what they have, or even not lose it too fast. I also think they have no problem occupying the territory indefinitely. They can outright kill the most likely troublemakers (which they already did in the "filtering" phase of the occupation) and transfer any excess population to the backwaters of Russia so that they don't risk popular uprisings. Russia doesn't have to worry about the economy or happiness of the people in the areas it occupies. They did jack shit to Donetsk and Luhanks during the 8 years they occupied Donbas, for example.
It's worth it to take a look at ISW's interactive map. There you can see the positioning of Russia's fortifications they have built in Ukraine. It's slow going now because Ukraine has yet to breech those fortifications. Once they do and there is a path(s) for Ukraine to come in behind those fortifications rendering many of them useless, the pace of the war should pick up some.
If I've understood correctly, it's the mine fields that have stalled the counter-offensive. Forbes had an article about it recently:
An attempt by the Ukrainian army’s 47th Assault Brigade and 33rd Mechanized Brigade to cross a minefield in southern Ukraine on June 8 was more disastrous than we knew.
www.forbes.com
So in short, Ukraine tried a breakthrough, but got stuck in minefields, and the disabled vehicles were left open to artillery barrages. They lost a considerable amount of their tanks and IFVs, and other vehicles. An unmitigated disaster. And the problem isn't just "breaching those fortifications". Because there are fortifications behind fortifications, all the way to Crimea. If Ukraine stubbornly tried another counter-offensive like that they'd only lose all their tanks and the war would be over, because they aren't likely to be able to get another donation of Leopards to replace the lost ones.
So, now Ukraine's just taking the low-hanging fruit, and progressing little by little. And I think this is actually a better tactic. It save the Ukrainian reserves and equipment, and seeing the maps progressing the wrong direction will cause panic in Kremlin and when they make a mistake, Ukraine can capitalize.
Currently it seems Ukraine is progressing in three directions: in Kherson, they have a small bridgehead on the left bank of Dnipro. It's rather small and it's too early to say whether it will get anywhere, because supply over the river is difficult, but Russia seems to be having trouble getting rid of it. And that means they will have to allocate more troops to Kherson, away from the two other hot spots.
In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine has most to gain because it's the route to sea of Azov and to cut Russian troops in half. But being the most obvious direction, it's also the most fortified. Likely Ukraine will progress very slowly, village by village, if at all. And the third direction is bakhmut, near which Ukraine has managed to push Russians back. It seems unlikely that Ukraine can take the city back directly, but if this push goes on long enough, it could get far enough to threaten Bakhmut with encirclement. And the city is important politically to both sides. I just hope that Ukraine is smart enough and doesn't waste its troops in pointless urban warfare.
