How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Astraia intel on Twitter: "️️In the Robotyne operational sector, elements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have effectively breached the first line of defense of the Russian "Surovikin" line. As previously stated, the second line has been reached in the vicinity of Verbove. (pic link)" / X

The "Surovikin line" lasted longer than Surovikin himself so it could be considered a success.

Russian 'General Armageddon' Sergei Surovikin is missing — is he 'resting' or Resting In Peace?

One of the top leaders in the Russian Army, Sergei Surovikin, has not been seen since the mutiny against the Kremlin last month. At first it seems odd, but it turns out General Surovikin is not who he seems.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Jayjay]

To put the Ukrainian gains into perspective, here's a gif that compares the situation from two months ago (before the beginning of the offensive) to today.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine is making progress, but at a rate that will not win them their territory back. To me it looks like Ukraine is conserving its reserves, which is the right thing to do, and waiting for more weapons from the west: Abrams tanks in September, F-16 in March, and the usual artillery shells etc. But Russia isn't just going to rest on its laurels and do nothing, they're also ramping up production of artillery shells, tanks, missiles, drones, etc.

I don't think Ukraine's strategy has much to do with taking territory. Rather, they're weakening the Russian position until it crumbles. Note their gains in artillery recently--their counterbattery is getting better and better, Russia's is getting worse.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

India will act in its own economic interest. They will not take a principled position on Ukraine. But they are no friend of China's. And for this we should deal with them diplomatically, not place them in the same bad guy category with China. Let the world see China ally itself with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Overall it will not serve them well among nations they hope to court.

Russia isn't actually faring very well in selling oil to India. The problem is they're being paid in Rupees--and there simply isn't that much they want that they can buy with those Rupees.

 

[lpetrich]

Radu Hossu on Twitter: "(Short Update) ..." / X

(Short Update) Nightly Summary (27.07 at 22:25 RO/UA Time):

1. Velika Novosilka-Berdiansk/Mariupol axis: Staromayorske has been released. The counteroffensive continues towards Staromlynivka (4 km south of Staromayorske), the last Russian "bastion" of defence towards Mariupol. Here the Russians may have a big, big defence problem.

2. Orihiv-Tokmak axis: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reached the front line of the "famous" dragon teeth between Verbove and Robotyne. I agree with @secretsqrl123 and believe #Robotyne will be liberated by an envelopment assault from the southeast, thus avoiding the northern line of defense.

3. Battle for Bakhmut 2.0: In the south, the Russians still control only the northern part of #Klischiivka. The AFU advances towards #Bakhmut in the north through #Yahidne and from #Khoromove.

4. Kreminna axis: the Russians were stopped from their advance 2 days ago. Nothing has changed since then.

Seems like Ukraine has advanced in two places in the south.

 

[ZiprHead]

Radu Hossu on Twitter: "(Short Update) ..." / X

(Short Update) Nightly Summary (27.07 at 22:25 RO/UA Time):

1. Velika Novosilka-Berdiansk/Mariupol axis: Staromayorske has been released. The counteroffensive continues towards Staromlynivka (4 km south of Staromayorske), the last Russian "bastion" of defence towards Mariupol. Here the Russians may have a big, big defence problem.

2. Orihiv-Tokmak axis: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reached the front line of the "famous" dragon teeth between Verbove and Robotyne. I agree with @secretsqrl123 and believe #Robotyne will be liberated by an envelopment assault from the southeast, thus avoiding the northern line of defense.

3. Battle for Bakhmut 2.0: In the south, the Russians still control only the northern part of #Klischiivka. The AFU advances towards #Bakhmut in the north through #Yahidne and from #Khoromove.

4. Kreminna axis: the Russians were stopped from their advance 2 days ago. Nothing has changed since then.

Seems like Ukraine has advanced in two places in the south.

It's the Russian strategy to lose because that means they are winning.

 

[Elixir]

It's the Russian strategy to lose because that means they are winning.

Putler’s genius knows no bounds.

 

[bigfield]

The Ukrainians are 50 miles from Mariupol. That's still a long way but nothing Russian inside Ukraine is safe anymore.

They've been 50 miles from Mariupol for over a year now.

Ukraine is making progress, but at a rate that will not win them their territory back. To me it looks like Ukraine is conserving its reserves, which is the right thing to do, and waiting for more weapons from the west: Abrams tanks in September, F-16 in March, and the usual artillery shells etc. But Russia isn't just going to rest on its laurels and do nothing, they're also ramping up production of artillery shells, tanks, missiles, drones, etc.

Also, whether Ukrainian strategy is successful hinges on casualties. If Ukraine is exchanging people for territory, they'll run out of men before Russia runs out of land. They need to be at least 5-10 times as efficient at eliminating Russian soldiers and equipment than Russia is at doing the same to them, otherwise they'll lose the war of attrition.

I think a possible path to victory that Ukraine might have is if their slow and steady crawl causes Kremlin to implode internally.

I'm guessing that Ukraine's progress in the south will continue to be slow until they're broken through the defensive lines that Russia installed along and behind the current front, particularly because of the minefields. If they try to push through these defences quickly then they'll lose a huge amount of men and equipment. If the Ukranians can break through these lines without spending their forces then they could potentially run over the rest of the Russian forces in the south pretty quickly.

How much stuff can Russia actually make? Can they actually make missiles and artillery shells as quickly as they are firing them? Can they make tanks and artillery pieces as quickly as they are losing them?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

How much stuff can Russia actually make? Can they actually make missiles and artillery shells as quickly as they are firing them? Can they make tanks and artillery pieces as quickly as they are losing them?

No. But their strategy has become two pronged, keep throwing bodies at the enemy and continue to wreck their infrastructure. The problem is that both of these tactics aren't working worth a shit. But it must be their plan all along, advance to the south and to the east, back to our Russian shitholes. Then declare victory as the Nazis have been eliminated.

And has barbos been given a field promotion yet? Lots of jobs opening up.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russian media is full of genocidal rants against Ukraine. And Poland. Oh yes, nuke London.

 

[pood]

Russian media is full of genocidal rants against Ukraine. And Poland. Oh yes, nuke London.

Nice country ya got there, Barbos. Hope you’re real proud of it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Radu Hossu on Twitter: "(Short Update) ..." / X

(Short Update) Nightly Summary (27.07 at 22:25 RO/UA Time):

1. Velika Novosilka-Berdiansk/Mariupol axis: Staromayorske has been released. The counteroffensive continues towards Staromlynivka (4 km south of Staromayorske), the last Russian "bastion" of defence towards Mariupol. Here the Russians may have a big, big defence problem.

2. Orihiv-Tokmak axis: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reached the front line of the "famous" dragon teeth between Verbove and Robotyne. I agree with @secretsqrl123 and believe #Robotyne will be liberated by an envelopment assault from the southeast, thus avoiding the northern line of defense.

3. Battle for Bakhmut 2.0: In the south, the Russians still control only the northern part of #Klischiivka. The AFU advances towards #Bakhmut in the north through #Yahidne and from #Khoromove.

4. Kreminna axis: the Russians were stopped from their advance 2 days ago. Nothing has changed since then.

Seems like Ukraine has advanced in two places in the south.

I don't have a URL but there was a simple bit of evidence of how bad things have gotten for Russia.

Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.

 

[ZiprHead]

Radu Hossu on Twitter: "(Short Update) ..." / X

(Short Update) Nightly Summary (27.07 at 22:25 RO/UA Time):

1. Velika Novosilka-Berdiansk/Mariupol axis: Staromayorske has been released. The counteroffensive continues towards Staromlynivka (4 km south of Staromayorske), the last Russian "bastion" of defence towards Mariupol. Here the Russians may have a big, big defence problem.

2. Orihiv-Tokmak axis: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reached the front line of the "famous" dragon teeth between Verbove and Robotyne. I agree with @secretsqrl123 and believe #Robotyne will be liberated by an envelopment assault from the southeast, thus avoiding the northern line of defense.

3. Battle for Bakhmut 2.0: In the south, the Russians still control only the northern part of #Klischiivka. The AFU advances towards #Bakhmut in the north through #Yahidne and from #Khoromove.

4. Kreminna axis: the Russians were stopped from their advance 2 days ago. Nothing has changed since then.

Seems like Ukraine has advanced in two places in the south.

I don't have a URL but there was a simple bit of evidence of how bad things have gotten for Russia.

Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.

I saw that too.

 

[Jayjay]

Radu Hossu on Twitter: "(Short Update) ..." / X

(Short Update) Nightly Summary (27.07 at 22:25 RO/UA Time):

1. Velika Novosilka-Berdiansk/Mariupol axis: Staromayorske has been released. The counteroffensive continues towards Staromlynivka (4 km south of Staromayorske), the last Russian "bastion" of defence towards Mariupol. Here the Russians may have a big, big defence problem.

2. Orihiv-Tokmak axis: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reached the front line of the "famous" dragon teeth between Verbove and Robotyne. I agree with @secretsqrl123 and believe #Robotyne will be liberated by an envelopment assault from the southeast, thus avoiding the northern line of defense.

3. Battle for Bakhmut 2.0: In the south, the Russians still control only the northern part of #Klischiivka. The AFU advances towards #Bakhmut in the north through #Yahidne and from #Khoromove.

4. Kreminna axis: the Russians were stopped from their advance 2 days ago. Nothing has changed since then.

Seems like Ukraine has advanced in two places in the south.

I don't have a URL but there was a simple bit of evidence of how bad things have gotten for Russia.

Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.

Or they were smart enough not to take the bait.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Or they were smart enough not to take the bait.

I don't think so. Even if they recognized that perhaps the Ukrainians were adopting the same tactic, loading an armored vehicle with explosives and aiming it at the enemy line, it doesn't explain how far it went. Were Russians just letting it pass by their dugouts and trenches? Not likely. It seems more likely they were simply not there to offer resistance.

 

[Jayjay]

Or they were smart enough not to take the bait.

I don't think so. Even if they recognized that perhaps the Ukrainians were adopting the same tactic, loading an armored vehicle with explosives and aiming it at the enemy line, it doesn't explain how far it went. Were Russians just letting it pass by their dugouts and trenches? Not likely. It seems more likely they were simply not there to offer resistance.

It didn't pass by the trenches, it hit the first one and got stuck. And just because it didn't hit a mine doesn't mean there aren't any on that particular field, or at least Ukraine can't assume there aren't.

 

[ZiprHead]

Zelensky after Moscow drone attack: War coming back to Russia

Ukraine's president speaks of an inevitable process, hours after buildings were hit in the Russian capital.

www.bbc.com

Russia has accused Ukraine of a drone attack on Moscow that damaged two buildings and briefly shut one of the city's airports.
A drone was shot down over the Odintsovo district, west of the city centre, and two others were neutralised but crashed into offices, Russia's defence ministry says.
One person has been injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reports.
Ukrainian officials have not acknowledged the incident.
The city's mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the facades of two office buildings were slightly damaged.
Photos from the scene show that several windows have been damaged at the corner of the buildings, with debris scattered on the ground below.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Zelensky after Moscow drone attack: War coming back to Russia

Ukraine's president speaks of an inevitable process, hours after buildings were hit in the Russian capital.

www.bbc.com

Russia has accused Ukraine of a drone attack on Moscow that damaged two buildings and briefly shut one of the city's airports.
A drone was shot down over the Odintsovo district, west of the city centre, and two others were neutralised but crashed into offices, Russia's defence ministry says.
One person has been injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reports.
Ukrainian officials have not acknowledged the incident.
The city's mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the facades of two office buildings were slightly damaged.
Photos from the scene show that several windows have been damaged at the corner of the buildings, with debris scattered on the ground below.

When Russia first invaded, everyone except perhaps the Ukrainians were afraid of provoking Russia by bombing or harassing its cities. We were all still living in that cold war mindset. I suppose after you've endured your cities being bombed and your citizens indiscriminately targeted and murdered you can get over such a fear. What's to lose, when you think about it. Live as a slave or fight for your freedom. Bringing the conflict home to the comfortable city dwellers is the best tactic Ukraine can use. It must fight the military war but certainly needs to engage in the political war.

 

[Jayjay]

Putin will probably have another round of mobilization, and will use any attacks on Moscow as a propaganda tool. Not saying Ukraine shoudl necessarily refrain from doing it, but it's crucial that they keep targeting military and government installations, and avoid massive civilian casualties. If they fuck it up and kill, say, school children by accident, it could turn against them.

The idea shouldn't be to terrorize people, but just remind them that the war is still going on and it's not going well for Russia.

 

[TomC]

Not saying Ukraine shoudl necessarily refrain from doing it,

I've not seen much evidence that Ukraine had much to do with it. Maybe so, but Putin has lots of other foes. He has both internal ones and external ones. New and old.

Putin has plenty of people gunning for his fall and that of his empire.
Tom