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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Not saying Ukraine shoudl necessarily refrain from doing it,

I've not seen much evidence that Ukraine had much to do with it. Maybe so, but Putin has lots of other foes. He has both internal ones and external ones. New and old.

Putin has plenty of people gunning for his fall and that of his empire.
Tom

You know vastly more about this subject than I do. Lots of people do.
That's why I don't express many opinions.

But I can think of plenty of reasons for someone with the wherewithal to do this besides the Ukrainians, at least their government.
That's all I'm saying. I don't know who was behind this event, or why, or even if it was any particular entity.
Tom
 
Not saying Ukraine shoudl necessarily refrain from doing it,

I've not seen much evidence that Ukraine had much to do with it. Maybe so, but Putin has lots of other foes. He has both internal ones and external ones. New and old.

Putin has plenty of people gunning for his fall and that of his empire.
Tom

You know vastly more about this subject than I do. Lots of people do.
That's why I don't express many opinions.

But I can think of plenty of reasons for someone with the wherewithal to do this besides the Ukrainians, at least their government.
That's all I'm saying. I don't know who was behind this event, or why, or even if it was any particular entity.
Tom

I think it unlikely to be anyone other than Ukrainians, even if its Russians working for Ukraine. They have to get their hands on the drones and explosives to do something like this. Ukraine has already admitted striking inside of Russia, and Zelensky just bragged that the war was coming home to Russians.
 
I don't have a URL but there was a simple bit of evidence of how bad things have gotten for Russia.

Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.
Or they were smart enough not to take the bait.
No, you have to shoot because it could be full of explosives rather than empty. Nobody shot because there was nobody there with a weapon that could take out a BMP.
 
Russia has accused Ukraine of a drone attack on Moscow that damaged two buildings and briefly shut one of the city's airports.
A drone was shot down over the Odintsovo district, west of the city centre, and two others were neutralised but crashed into offices, Russia's defence ministry says.
One person has been injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reports.
Ukrainian officials have not acknowledged the incident.
The city's mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the facades of two office buildings were slightly damaged.
Photos from the scene show that several windows have been damaged at the corner of the buildings, with debris scattered on the ground below.
When Russia first invaded, everyone except perhaps the Ukrainians were afraid of provoking Russia by bombing or harassing its cities. We were all still living in that cold war mindset. I suppose after you've endured your cities being bombed and your citizens indiscriminately targeted and murdered you can get over such a fear. What's to lose, when you think about it. Live as a slave or fight for your freedom. Bringing the conflict home to the comfortable city dwellers is the best tactic Ukraine can use. It must fight the military war but certainly needs to engage in the political war.
You do not understand the situation. The issue is ensuring that Russia knows that they are not at any risk of being conquered. Whatever happens in Ukraine the US weapons will stay at the border, any invasion of Russia will only be with Ukrainian arms--and Ukrainian arms can't hope to defeat Russia even if they prevail in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes, or repurposed S-200s are a nuisance to Russia, nothing more--there is no chance they'll have to resort to nukes to keep from being conquered and thus no reason to decide now is better than later to use them.
 
I think a possible path to victory that Ukraine might have is if their slow and steady crawl causes Kremlin to implode internally.
I'm guessing that Ukraine's progress in the south will continue to be slow until they're broken through the defensive lines that Russia installed along and behind the current front, particularly because of the minefields. If they try to push through these defences quickly then they'll lose a huge amount of men and equipment. If the Ukranians can break through these lines without spending their forces then they could potentially run over the rest of the Russian forces in the south pretty quickly.

How much stuff can Russia actually make? Can they actually make missiles and artillery shells as quickly as they are firing them? Can they make tanks and artillery pieces as quickly as they are losing them?
I don't see why not.

Russia is a huge, industrial nation. Not sure about artillery, but I guess a self-propelled gun could be compared to a tank in complexity. According to some western estimate, Russia is able to build 240 T-90 tanks a year. Russia itself is boasting that the number is 1600. So if numbers for the SPGs is similar, I suppose Ukraine would have to blow up 1 or 2 of them each day and not make a dent even by a conservative estimate.

That's not counting towed howitzers, or MLRS launchers, and the like. Ukraine itself is reporting double-digit numbers of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed each day, but those are probably exaggerated numbers. I personally don't see Russia ever running out of tanks or artillery, but they might be sufficiently constrained locally for Ukraine to take advantage.
 
Tim Snyder in FT draws parallels between Russia and Nazi Germany:

(...) “In the analogy we’re talking about, Russia is [Nazi] Germany. And I think that is generally productive as a comparison, but it’s also generally taboo. And the fact that it’s generally taboo has been one of our problems from the beginning.”

People are “weirdly hesitant” to call Putin’s Russia fascist, he says. “But there are many levels on which the analogy [with Nazi Germany] holds.”

For Snyder, the west’s lack of historical clarity on Russia has been a deadly mistake, and continues to be at the core of our misreading of Putin. He decries our ongoing focus on “pragmatic” solutions to the conflict, and a conceptualising of Putin as some kind of cynical, but ultimately relatable, power politician in the western mould.

Putin’s radical ideas have been catastrophically minimised in our analysis, Snyder believes. “Ideas, it turns out, matter. Until far too recently [western] policy discussions about Putin were shaped by our own ideas about technocracy and pragmatism and stability — categories which I think have already worn out their welcome.”

And yet, I say, the poisonous ideology of Hitlerism, even if dynamic, was arguably there from the outset, congealing in Hitler’s mind out of a soup of völkisch ideas in German society. Hitlerism, such as it was, went on to shape the modus operandi of the Nazi state. But with Putinism, is it not the case that the modus operandi — a cynical, power-hungry kleptocracy — has, conversely, arrived at the only ideology left that it can govern with?

Snyder is hesitant about this argument. For him, Putin’s ideas have been gestating for a much longer period; we were just blind to them. “When Putin returned to the office of the presidency [in 2012] you could see in his Russian-language proclamations, radio interviews and in print, a clear worldview, which is essentially the world view that has become more familiar to us since February 2022, according to which it’s not about states, it’s about civilisations; it’s not about interests, it’s about missions.”
 
I think a possible path to victory that Ukraine might have is if their slow and steady crawl causes Kremlin to implode internally.
I'm guessing that Ukraine's progress in the south will continue to be slow until they're broken through the defensive lines that Russia installed along and behind the current front, particularly because of the minefields. If they try to push through these defences quickly then they'll lose a huge amount of men and equipment. If the Ukranians can break through these lines without spending their forces then they could potentially run over the rest of the Russian forces in the south pretty quickly.

How much stuff can Russia actually make? Can they actually make missiles and artillery shells as quickly as they are firing them? Can they make tanks and artillery pieces as quickly as they are losing them?
I don't see why not.

Russia is a huge, industrial nation. Not sure about artillery, but I guess a self-propelled gun could be compared to a tank in complexity. According to some western estimate, Russia is able to build 240 T-90 tanks a year. Russia itself is boasting that the number is 1600. So if numbers for the SPGs is similar, I suppose Ukraine would have to blow up 1 or 2 of them each day and not make a dent even by a conservative estimate.

That's not counting towed howitzers, or MLRS launchers, and the like. Ukraine itself is reporting double-digit numbers of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed each day, but those are probably exaggerated numbers. I personally don't see Russia ever running out of tanks or artillery, but they might be sufficiently constrained locally for Ukraine to take advantage.
I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers, but other sources are clear that Russia has lost something like 2500 tanks since the war started. That’s far more than they can produce, whether 200, as sources I’ve seen say, or even 1600. And I sure as hell don’t think they can produce anything close to that amount.
 
Yasmina on Twitter: "Putin suddenly ..." / X
Putin suddenly changes his triumphant rhetoric regarding Ukraine's counteroffensive after African leaders urged him to end hostilities.

“One of the points (of the initiative of African countries) cannot be implemented – there are things that may be difficult to implement or cannot be implemented. One of the points there is a ceasefire.

But the Ukrainian army is advancing, they are on the attack, implementing a large-scale strategic offensive. There is no reason to turn to us for a ceasefire. We cannot cease fire when we are being attacked »

Didn’t Putin said a week ago, that the counteroffensive failed.

“There is no counteroffensive,” Lukashenko said.

Putin interrupted: “It exists, but it has failed.”

It doesn't matter anymore for Putin, what lies he’s telling.
So he's now less confident.
 
Russia can update 35 tanks per month according to numerous reports. Recently. Russia has anounced plans to build 1600 T-90 tanks a year. Of course Russia announced years ago they would produce 1,500 Armata tanks by 2015. Then 2,000 Armata 14 tanks by 2024. They have possibly 40. Of their most advanced aircraft, the SU-57, thay have 10. Their SU-75 checkmate, no actual flying prototypes yet.

Meanwhile, by the end of 2024, one thousand F-35s will have been produced.
 
US presidential front runner ... (checks notes) ... Donald Fucking Trump calls for Ukraine aid to be halted:


Trump said at a rally in Erie, Pa., on Saturday that Biden has been “dragging” the country into conflict with the war between Russia and Ukraine and referenced the copy of the unverified tip that congressional Republicans released last week purporting to show evidence of a scheme to bribe Biden.

The form included secondhand allegations that the Bidens were sent millions of dollars from the CEO of Ukrainian energy company Burisma, which was being investigated by the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office. Hunter Biden served on the board of Burisma at the time.

Biden, while serving as vice president in the Obama administration, argued that Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin was corrupt and should be fired, threatening to withhold $1 billion in funding for Ukraine unless he was dismissed.

No hard evidence has been shown to demonstrate that Biden pushed for Shokin to be fired to help his son, but Trump and other Republicans have repeatedly alleged a bribery scheme occurred.

Ukraine can't win fast, because they don't have the skills or the weapons. Its only chance is to outlast Russia, which is only possible if USA continues to support it. But with Trump or DeSantis in charge, there's a very real risk that the aid will be cut, or at least made conditional on some haphazard interim peace deal.
 
I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers, but other sources are clear that Russia has lost something like 2500 tanks since the war started.
It's incorrect. Russia lost 300,000 tanks. Trust me, I have sources.
 
Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.
One has to wonder why NATO have not reached Pacific Ocean yet.
 
Ukraine can't win fast, because they don't have the skills or the weapons. Its only chance is to outlast Russia,
LOL, OK.
The difference here is that this war for Russia is a war of choice. The orcs can return home. The Ukrainians are the ones backed into the corner with no place to retreat to. At some point Russians will get tired of sending their young men to die over there. It's a damn shame that the old men ruling Russia don't have to fight. Then the war would be over.
 
Ukraine can't win fast, because they don't have the skills or the weapons. Its only chance is to outlast Russia,
LOL, OK.
The difference here is that this war for Russia is a war of choice. The orcs can return home. The Ukrainians are the ones backed into the corner with no place to retreat to. At some point Russians will get tired of sending their young men to die over there. It's a damn shame that the old men ruling Russia don't have to fight. Then the war would be over.
Your math does not compute. "Orcs" are dying at 10% rate of nazi angels.
 
Ukraine conducted a probe of Russian defenses--archaic BMP. They sent it out unmanned (presumably a weight on whatever makes it go) and it went clear across the battlefield until it got caught by an anti-tank ditch. No mines and nobody shot it. There must not be much in the way of defense where they pulled that.
One has to wonder why NATO have not reached Pacific Ocean yet.
Give it a few years. After Russia collapses the remnants will want to join NATO.
 
I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers, but other sources are clear that Russia has lost something like 2500 tanks since the war started.
It's incorrect. Russia lost 300,000 tanks. Trust me, I have sources.
We know you do. The mystery is why you actually believe them.

ETA: so I hear that Russian military recruitment offices have been burned down. Are you responsible?
 
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