How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

While untested, I'm curious to see how this performs. If it can reliably shoot down Orlan drones, it could effectively blind Russian artillery.

How many Wunderwaffe have NATO sent to Ukraine, starting with what's its name, anti-tank thing?

Some weapons are game changers, like Javelins, Himars, or Storm Shadows, others end up in the scrap heap like Switchblades or GLSDB (which I'm not sure has even made it to the battle zone yet).

Vampire is interesting because it's new and potentially useful. Or it could turn out to be too difficult to operate and not make a dent. But any system that could deprive Russia of it's artillery advantage is worth trying out.

 

[Jayjay]

Without seeing this alleged video, why wouldn't Ukrainian soldiers speak english?

How would I know? Why would ukrainian civilians wear military unform and speak english, ask your media, they claimed these were civilians.

I haven't seen this video you're talking about, but I didn't suggest that civilians would wear military uniforms. But if they are talking to civvies, or the media, or the like, sure they could use English. But I'm not going to argue further over something that I've not seen.

More about Gonzalo Lira

looks like he was not able to escape to Hungary
US citizen is arrested for having an opinion different from US government one.

So this idiot happens to be in Ukraine during the war, starts spreading lies and pro-Russian propaganda (something which would've gotten him instantly arrested in Russia also), is arrested, gets out on bail, and then makes videos where he says he'll try to sneak out of the country, and unsurprisingly the authorities got wind of this plan and detain him again?

Sounds like he's a victim of his own stupidity above all.

Are you done? he is not pro-russian, he merely expresses his opinions. And his video with plans was released after he attempted to cross the border. And if he is an idiot for thinking that he can have an opinion in the democratic and human rights heaven such as Ukraine then he is.

Yes, he is an idiot if he thinks he can spout pro-Russian propaganda in Ukraine during a war. And he's being treated better than he would be if he had tried the same shit in Russia. After all, he was released on bail, and even in worst case scenario he'll probably just cool off until the war is over and then will be deported back to US or Chile.

 

[Jayjay]

But it did, like I just told you.

No it did not. I just told you.
you have no explanation why rocket is missing on some of the frames.

Yes, I did. The rocket is "missing" because of multiple conversions and compression artifacts. CCTV footage played back on a computer and recorded on a phone, and then maybe re-encoded one or more times before being posted online. It expains the artifacts perfectly. I even reproduced (part) of the effect, and confirmed by comparing the frame pixel-by-pixel that it is most likely a compression artifact (but remain open if you can show any reason why this wouldn't be the case).

On the other hand, you haven't explained why the person you claim faking the video forgot to add it in one frame. You haven't explained how a mine on street level can blow up a hole through the roof of the building. You haven't explained at all why Ukraine would need to fake an attack in a city that Russia was shooting on a daily basis anyway.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukranian drone boat hits Russian ship.

And last night, they damaged a Russian tanker coming from Syria.

I think it's ironic that just a couple of days after Peskov said that Russia considers civilian vessels going to Ukrainian ports would be considered military targets, Ukraine shows that two can play that game. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

A fair solution would be similar to grain initiative... merchant vessels would be allowed to pass, and both sides would have the right to inspect the other one's ships for contraband. Russia would never agree to that though.

 

[lpetrich]

Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "Ukrainian Defenders de-occupied another 12.6 square kilometers in southern Ukraine over the past week - deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar. ..." / X
Also describing some other advances, and with some video of Ukrainian troops taking down a billboard sign with a Russian flag and "We are with Russia! One people!" (Мы с Россией! Один народ!) on it.

War Mapper on Twitter: "Update: On the Southern front, Ukrainian forces have liberated the settlement of Staromaiors'ke (pix link)" / X

War Mapper on Twitter: "Ukraine have advanced on the Eastern flank of Robotyne. (pix link)" / X

With unconfirmed reports of Ukr also advancing on the W side of Robotyne.

 

[Rhea]

12.6 km2. Excrucitiating. So much effort and loss for them to gain back their land.

 

[barbos]

Sanctions are working. Russian economy is tatters, I say (c)

 

[barbos]

I haven't seen this video you're talking about,

Of course you have not, why would you?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

GDP

Russia - 1.799 trillion USD
South Korea - 1.811 trillion USD

 

[Copernicus]

Sanctions are working. Russian economy is tatters, I say (c)

These are nice, professionally produced little propaganda videos made especially for posting on Western media. Narrators walking around in Russian locations, showing people going on about their lives normally and peacefully. Notice that the narrators are not actually holding the cameras, so there is obviously a crew there to make sure that the message is properly scripted and recorded. It saves barbos the trouble of actually having to take up a lot of space with attempting to rebut the points people have been making, since he usually doesn't have much to say anyway. In an earlier time, these kinds of exercises would have been produced for the slickly produced Soviet Life magazine that got replaced by  Russian Life after the fall of the Soviet Union. I used to subscribe for free to Soviet Life, which was styled after Life magazine, but nobody reads these coffee table magazines anymore. Now we have propaganda videos available on Youtube and reproduced for our viewing pleasure here.

 

[barbos]

GDP

Russia - 1.799 trillion USD
South Korea - 1.811 trillion USD

Incorrect.
Russia - 5.3 trillion USD
South Korea 2.9 trillion USD

 

[barbos]

Australian and American talk about russian propaganda.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia - 2.24 trillion USD

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Olenegorsky Gornyak is/was a Ropucha (Toad) class landing (troops & equipment) ship of which Russia has five more in the Black Sea. They are an alternate means of transportation for the Kerch Bridge and M14 roadway down from Mariupol.

Kyiv Post is claiming Ukrainian forces have broken through a first line of defense "in some areas".

Russian forces are not rotated off the front line. There are no reserves to give these guys a break. Imagine that for months on end.
Russia has a long defensive line to hold and must be ready across the entire line. Ukraine need only punch a hole or two. They can keep probing the defense looking for weak spots.

Russia tries to pull Ukrainian forces north. Ukraine maintains focus on the south. Somewhere a hole will form and a concentration of fresh Ukrainian forces can open and maintain that break in the line. Then it will be a matter if these poorly maintained, overworked Russian troops are put back on their heels. And will Ukraine be able to muster up the air cover needed to protect their ground forces?

Ukrainian forces need to bring the Mariupol to Crimea supply line within artillery range.

Biden really screwed up not getting Ukraine the air cover they need to protect their ground forces in a timely manner. I'm sure he was advised properly. Is he just too timid or is there something more to it? I wonder because he seems to say no no no to everything before finally saying yes some months later.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Olenegorsky Gornyak is/was a Ropucha (Toad) class landing (troops & equipment) ship of which Russia has five more in the Black Sea. They are an alternate means of transportation for the Kerch Bridge and M14 roadway down from Mariupol.

Kyiv Post is claiming Ukrainian forces have broken through a first line of defense "in some areas".

Russian forces are not rotated off the front line. There are no reserves to give these guys a break. Imagine that for months on end.
Russia has a long defensive line to hold and must be ready across the entire line. Ukraine need only punch a hole or two. They can keep probing the defense looking for weak spots.

Russia tries to pull Ukrainian forces north. Ukraine maintains focus on the south. Somewhere a hole will form and a concentration of fresh Ukrainian forces can open and maintain that break in the line. Then it will be a matter if these poorly maintained, overworked Russian troops are put back on their heels. And will Ukraine be able to muster up the air cover needed to protect their ground forces?

Ukrainian forces need to bring the Mariupol to Crimea supply line within artillery range.

Biden really screwed up not getting Ukraine the air cover they need to protect their ground forces in a timely manner. I'm sure he was advised properly. Is he just too timid or is there something more to it? I wonder because he seems to say no no no to everything before finally saying yes some months later.

Well, I agree somewhat that Biden has been a little too timid regarding arming Ukraine. I think that you'd agree that we've been on a tightrope in trying to help Ukraine to preserve their union while also not destroying the world. Regardless though, would you agree with me that if Trump had won the presidency, that Russia would have taken Ukraine, and we'd be witnessing a great genocide today.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Olenegorsky Gornyak is/was a Ropucha (Toad) class landing (troops & equipment) ship of which Russia has five more in the Black Sea. They are an alternate means of transportation for the Kerch Bridge and M14 roadway down from Mariupol.

Kyiv Post is claiming Ukrainian forces have broken through a first line of defense "in some areas".

Russian forces are not rotated off the front line. There are no reserves to give these guys a break. Imagine that for months on end.
Russia has a long defensive line to hold and must be ready across the entire line. Ukraine need only punch a hole or two. They can keep probing the defense looking for weak spots.

Russia tries to pull Ukrainian forces north. Ukraine maintains focus on the south. Somewhere a hole will form and a concentration of fresh Ukrainian forces can open and maintain that break in the line. Then it will be a matter if these poorly maintained, overworked Russian troops are put back on their heels. And will Ukraine be able to muster up the air cover needed to protect their ground forces?

Ukrainian forces need to bring the Mariupol to Crimea supply line within artillery range.

Biden really screwed up not getting Ukraine the air cover they need to protect their ground forces in a timely manner. I'm sure he was advised properly. Is he just too timid or is there something more to it? I wonder because he seems to say no no no to everything before finally saying yes some months later.

Well, I agree somewhat that Biden has been a little too timid regarding arming Ukraine. I think that you'd agree that we've been on a tightrope in trying to help Ukraine to preserve their union while also not destroying the world. Regardless though, would you agree with me that if Trump had won the presidency, that Russia would have taken Ukraine, and we'd be witnessing a great genocide today.

I certainly would agree.
But I'm starting to question my long held assumption of Biden doing so so as not to let things spiral out of control. It's one thing not to arm Ukraine to the teeth from the get-go. It's another not to give them what they need in a timely manner. Now long range missiles are one thing. Not providing Ukraine with the air cover they need is another. Surely the Kremlin can see the disadvantage this puts Ukrainian forces at.

 

[Elixir]

Not providing Ukraine with the air cover they need is another. Surely the Kremlin can see the disadvantage this puts Ukrainian forces at.

Yes, and I’m sure Pootey really appreciates the courtesy.
Enough is enough. This is a rogue nuclear State, á la the PRK.

 

[Jayjay]

GDP

Russia - 1.799 trillion USD
South Korea - 1.811 trillion USD

Incorrect.

Russia - 5.3 trillion USD
South Korea 2.9 trillion USD

Russia - 2.24 trillion USD

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

At least you're providing a source. I can't match any of the other numbers exactly to anything I can find online.

But you're both kinda right. Russian GDP is in the same ballpark with South Korea in nominal $ (about 2 trillion), but is twice that of Korea adjusted for PPP, give or take. And Russian economy is growing by this metric, while South Korea is declining.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But GDP isn't the only relevant measure. In Russia's case, it also includes all the military production, which in real world in no way enhances people's lives in any meaningful way. The civilian economy is contracting. It's also just an estimate, based on data provided by Russia, which might not be so reliable right now.

 

[southernhybrid]

I'm "gifting" a very long article written by a journalist who spent a couple of months in Russia, interviewing people and trying to determine Putin's goals for this reckless, unnecessary war that he started. The article is very concerning, especially since some of the things that Putin is doing and claiming remind me of some of the things that Republicans in the US are also trying to do. For example, their hatred of gay and trans folks. If you're not a Times subscriber, I encourage you to read this. The journalist has over 30 years of experience and imo, was very brave to take this trip and spend so much time interviewing people, including those who have put their own safety at risk, for criticizing their own government. The claim has been made that Putin has plans to take over a lot more territories, the threat of nuclear war is a possibility etc. The article is called, "Putin's Forever War".

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/...OqfkokwmV6WiwVfwkeyuotvtnpJ12s&smid=url-share

 

[Jayjay]

Kyiv Post is claiming Ukrainian forces have broken through a first line of defense "in some areas".

Russian forces are not rotated off the front line. There are no reserves to give these guys a break. Imagine that for months on end.
Russia has a long defensive line to hold and must be ready across the entire line. Ukraine need only punch a hole or two. They can keep probing the defense looking for weak spots.

I think this is bullshit.

Russia has had over a year to prepare the defenses, and they have. There's no "punching through" anywhere, because after the first defensive line, there is going to be another one, and then another one, all the way to Crimea, which are at least as tough as the first one. Russia is prepared to fight for every mile. As for rotation, it's probably true for some places, but Russia can make up for it with numbers.

I expect Ukraine to be able hold the line and make local progress, but not much faster than this.