How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Африка призвала разблокировать находящиеся в портах ЕС российские удобрения - Газета.Ru | Новости

Официальный представитель президента ЮАР Винсент Магвенья заявил на брифинге для журналистов, что страны Африки выступают за скорейшую разблокировку российских удобрений, находящихся в портах Европейского союза, передает ТАСС .

www.gazeta.ru

Africans demand that racist/nazi governments of EU unblock ships with russian fertilizers in EU ports.

The fertilizer shipments have been allowed to go forward from Latvia for example:

Second U.N.-Facilitated Shipment Of Russian Fertilizer From EU Reaches Africa

VILNIUS, May 29 (Reuters) – A second shipment of Russian-origin fertilizer facilitated by the United Nations’ World Food Programme has arrived in Africa from the European Union, containing 34,000 tonnes of fertiliser,...

gcaptain.com

Maybe there are more ships, maybe TASS is just lying.

 

[Jayjay]

Why would there be any reason for the US to smuggle weapons into Ukraine? They're sent in quite openly across the Polish border.

You are not paying attention, they smuggle sea drones to attack Crimea.

That's a weird way of using the word "smuggle". It's like saying that Russia is smuggling Iskander missiles and Shahed drones to Kyiv.

Besides, these kamikaze boats are small enough that they can be launched anywhere across the coast. Russian bombing of the ports and cities doesn't do anything to stop them, and they know it.

 

[Jayjay]

I think it's pretty much safe to say that the much-touted "counter-offensive" is not happening.

No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive

As the operation grinds on, DOD officials expect the counteroffensive will last at least through the fall and possibly into the winter.

www.politico.com

If Ukraine’s supporters were hoping for a breakthrough after Kyiv’s forces made a new push in the southeast of the country last week, they were sorely disappointed.

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Ukraine now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades, said one of the DOD officials, who like others interviewed for this newsletter was granted anonymity to discuss operational details. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots.

“They are making mostly small, incremental gains” on all three axes, the official said. “They are still facing stiff Russian resistance — second and third layers of defenses.”

In a way, Ukraine is doing the right thing by conserving its forces and sticking to what it is capable of. The big sweeping counter-offensive to the Azov sea and Crimea sounds good on paper to politicians, but the reality on the ground is that Russian defenses are hard to crack, and Ukrainian forces don't have the sufficient skills or equipment to do so.

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Kyiv feel like it needs to make progress to keep the weapons flowing. There's a very real concern that if there are no results, Ukraine's western allies will get cold feet and start pushing for a ceasefire. So to get these results, Ukraine might make the mistake of forcing attacks with too high casualties, just so that they can show arrows on a map moving forward. This would be very bad because the war is going to continue on for years, and weapons or vehicles can be replaced but the people who used them can't.

What Ukraine really needs is to conserve its strength, make sure the casualty rates are in its favor, and become more and more efficient at killing Russians. Training of troops and officers is the key in this long-term strategy, as well as finding better ways of doing counter-battery artillery and use drones.

The article also had this tidbit:

The American-made “Vampire” counter-drone systems, a laser-guided missile launcher that can be quickly installed in a truck bed, are finally arriving, which will give the front lines a small, mobile air defense capability that could potentially help protect those units, the person said.

While untested, I'm curious to see how this performs. If it can reliably shoot down Orlan drones, it could effectively blind Russian artillery.

 

[ZiprHead]

I wonder if the Russian cowards will bomb the ports on the Danube or the ships making transit. If they do I hope Israel sends the Russian ship to the bottom. I certainly would.

British scum should had thought about that when they bombed Kerch Bridge.
So the short answer is yes, Russia will bomb any port which can support grain deal export.
The reason? because the West (US) did not honor their part of the agreement and used it to attack Kerch Bridge and smuggle weapons.

Why would there be any reason for the US to smuggle weapons into Ukraine? They're sent in quite openly across the Polish border.

How many differant countries has Barbos accused of bombing the bridge? Four? Five? Anyone want to take bets on which one he will settle on?

 

[pood]

The Russian government's powerful efforts to destroy Ukraine are solid evidence that Ukrainians don't want to be Russians.
Tom

Oh, you suddenly care what people want?
How interesting.

So you admit that the Russians really don’t give a shit what Ukrainians want, eh?

 

[pood]

Also, what makes you think that TomC doesn’t care what people want?

 

[barbos]

Besides, these kamikaze boats are small enough that they can be launched anywhere across the coast.

Ukraine does not have coast nearby anymore, they have to launch it from cargo ships.

How many differant countries has Barbos accused of bombing the bridge? Four? Five? Anyone want to take bets on which one he will settle on?

Just 2. Ukraine and Britain, well, US too. But it has Britain written all over it.

The fertilizer shipments have been allowed to go forward from Latvia for example

Good one. If only Latvia had fertilizers.

 

[barbos]

Maybe there are more ships, maybe TASS is just lying.

I think we know by now, that your side are liars and criminals.

 

[barbos]

I think it's pretty much safe to say that the much-touted "counter-offensive" is not happening.

Oh, it's happening, it's just a fiasco.

 

[barbos]

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Kyiv feel like it needs to make progress to keep the weapons flowing.

Not Ukraine, Biden, Nuland and other scum.
Piece of shit Sullivan organized a "peace" conference in Saudi Arabia (without Russia of course) and he timed it toward success of this counteroffensive, except there is none And countries invited are saying "No Russia? Fuck you !"
These dumasses actuallly believed their own shit. They really believed that Ukrainian Army will be storming Moscow by that time.

 

[barbos]

While untested, I'm curious to see how this performs. If it can reliably shoot down Orlan drones, it could effectively blind Russian artillery.

How many Wunderwaffe have NATO sent to Ukraine, starting with what's its name, anti-tank thing?

 

[barbos]

Without seeing this alleged video, why wouldn't Ukrainian soldiers speak english?

How would I know? Why would ukrainian civilians wear military unform and speak english, ask your media, they claimed these were civilians.

More about Gonzalo Lira

looks like he was not able to escape to Hungary
US citizen is arrested for having an opinion different from US government one.

So this idiot happens to be in Ukraine during the war, starts spreading lies and pro-Russian propaganda (something which would've gotten him instantly arrested in Russia also), is arrested, gets out on bail, and then makes videos where he says he'll try to sneak out of the country, and unsurprisingly the authorities got wind of this plan and detain him again?

Sounds like he's a victim of his own stupidity above all.

Are you done? he is not pro-russian, he merely expresses his opinions. And his video with plans was released after he attempted to cross the border. And if he is an idiot for thinking that he can have an opinion in the democratic and human rights heaven such as Ukraine then he is.

 

[barbos]

The most recently bombed port (with the grain silos) was near Romania, it stands to reason there could be people there who don't speak Ukrainian or Russian. Or the media.

OK, how is that relevant to the event which happened long before that in a different place. And why would civilians there speak english anyway?
Or you think I can't distinguish english from romanian? really? you think that?

 

[barbos]

But it did, like I just told you.

No it did not. I just told you.
you have no explanation why rocket is missing on some of the frames.

 

[ZiprHead]

How many differant countries has Barbos accused of bombing the bridge? Four? Five? Anyone want to take bets on which one he will settle on?

Just 2. Ukraine and Britain, well, US too. But it has Britain written all over it.

So at least three.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukranian drone boat hits Russian ship.

 

[bilby]

How many differant countries has Barbos accused of bombing the bridge? Four? Five? Anyone want to take bets on which one he will settle on?

Just 2. Ukraine and Britain, well, US too. But it has Britain written all over it.

So at least three.

Sure, but you're not using proper Putinmath^TM.

Three is just two, which is obviously equal to one, so there's no possibility of doubt about who is responsible - it is whoever Putin wants it to be.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Why would there be any reason for the US to smuggle weapons into Ukraine? They're sent in quite openly across the Polish border.

You are not paying attention, they smuggle sea drones to attack Crimea.

And Ukraine can't ship them overland??? That would be easier than getting them to the Black Sea in the first place.

Do you realize that other than the radios the drones that have been sinking your ships are little more than big radio control toys with some boom on them?

 

[Jayjay]

Besides, these kamikaze boats are small enough that they can be launched anywhere across the coast.

Ukraine does not have coast nearby anymore, they have to launch it from cargo ships.

Based on recent attacks after the grain deal ended, they have no problem launching them from the coast. Also, if they are fired from cargo ships, why destroy the ports? The ships were already blockaded.

The fertilizer shipments have been allowed to go forward from Latvia for example

Good one. If only Latvia had fertilizers.

It wasn't about Latvian fertilizers, but Russian ships that happened to be in Latvian ports at the time when they were sanctioned. They were allowed to be delivered to Africa under UN food program.

 

[Jayjay]

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Kyiv feel like it needs to make progress to keep the weapons flowing.

Not Ukraine, Biden, Nuland and other scum.
Piece of shit Sullivan organized a "peace" conference in Saudi Arabia (without Russia of course) and he timed it toward success of this counteroffensive, except there is none And countries invited are saying "No Russia? Fuck you !"

China seems to disagree. And the conspiracy theory that Sullivan somehow organized this meeting is ridiculous. Saudis are very rapidly switching from US orbit to China, and this is more likely happening from either their own or the Chinese initiative than USA's.