How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor!

No, it has not happened yet, hence you can't call Russia aggressor.
But occupation of Ukraine by NATO and US specifically has happened already.

But yeah, US finally convinced Zelensky to play his part better.

So you are privy to conversations between Zelensky and Biden?

No more than you are privy to conversations in Kremlin. Yet you are convinced that Russia will attack.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

 

[Copernicus]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

As I've said before, this kind of brinkmanship behavior is common in Russia and Ukraine, so I think that both Russians and Ukrainians are seeing Putin's behavior as a kind of poker bluff to see if he can get the US, Europe, and/or the Ukrainians to fold rather than run the risk of a full scale invasion. And it does seem like a pretty crazy move for Putin to actually go through with, given that people who start wars can seldom control the twists and turns of fate after it happens. However, nobody really knows how sane or rational Putin is. Just because he looks calm and in control and talks as if he knows what he is doing, that doesn't necessarily mean that he is rational. It's quite possible that there is nothing anyone can say or do that will deter Putin from plunging ahead. The truly scary aspect of this is that he controls the means to set off a nuclear war, so pretty much everyone wants to believe that he is rational and intelligent. Everyone wants him to be bluffing. As barbos said, he could simply back off and walk away. That's what we'd all like to happen.

Meanwhile, the US has moved its remaining embassy staff to Lviv in the western half of the country, which is less likely to come under sudden attack. Most sensitive classified material has been removed from the Kyiv embassy or destroyed, including computer systems. Poland is preparing for a massive influx of refugees. Even if Putin walks away, the end result is that the NATO alliance has been greatly revived and strengthened by his actions. The NATO member Baltic nations will be the next most vulnerable target, but Putin will genuinely risk nuclear war if he attacks them. That is why so many East European nations have rushed to join NATO--to get under the NATO umbrella. It is too late for Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

One of the previous links explained that for successful full scale invasion into hostile territory such as Ukraine one would need 700K troops. So US government is either lying about how much Ukrainian population hostile or they are lying about impending invasion.

meanwhile one of Ukrainian ambassadors (I think it in GB) said that NATO membership is not set in stone. He was fired I think, too lazy to check.
Bunch of EU politicians-analysts are suggesting the same thing - Neutrality.
It's just not get reported in US.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

One of the previous links explained that for successful full scale invasion into hostile territory such as Ukraine one would need 700K troops. So US government is either lying about how much Ukrainian population hostile or they are lying about impending invasion.

meanwhile one of Ukrainian ambassadors (I think it in GB) said that NATO membership is not set in stone. He was fired I think, too lazy to check.
Bunch of EU politicians-analysts are suggesting the same thing - Neutrality.
It's just not get reported in US.

Of course that has been reported in the press. I'm sure it's been unofficially floated to Putin many times that the west is willing negotiate with Putin. But Putin is out for far more than just Ukraine in my view. The west doesn't want war. Putin does.

 

[barbos]

Of course that has been reported in the press

Where?

many times that the west is willing negotiate with Putin.

West? what West? US gave their answer and answer was NO.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Of course that has been reported in the press

Where?

many times that the west is willing negotiate with Putin.

West? what West? US gave their answer and answer was NO.

You're not paying attention. Putin made a lot of outrageous demands that he should have known that the west couldn't accept. He wanted NATO immediately disbanded in countries that entered the alliance after 1997: Poland, and the balkan countries. Putin wants far more than just Ukraine. Sorry that you didn't realize this. Putin has painted himself into a corner.

 

[lpetrich]

Emma Vigeland on Twitter: "Looking forward to this chest-puffing about Ukraine to subside. Every day there's a new headline: "Biden warns" and "Putin threatens."

It's the meme of those two guys aggressively flipping one another off without throwing a punch. It seems performative and I hope it is." / Twitter

She followed up with
Emma Vigeland on Twitter: "Nonsensical grammar in the first sentence but you catch my drift" / Twitter

 

[barbos]

Of course that has been reported in the press

Where?

many times that the west is willing negotiate with Putin.

West? what West? US gave their answer and answer was NO.

You're not paying attention. Putin made a lot of outrageous demands that he should have known that the west couldn't accept. He wanted NATO immediately disbanded in countries that entered the alliance after 1997: Poland, and the balkan countries. Putin wants far more than just Ukraine. Sorry that you didn't realize this. Putin has painted himself into a corner.

That's how you bargain. Putin will be quite happy If NATO/US gets out of US/Georgia.

 

[Elixir]

Putin doesn’t rule the world, despite his delusion to the contrary.
He can spout his BS ‘til he’s blue in the face and he’ll still just be a throwback dictator ruling a huge underpopulated landmass that he will never be able to defend. If it wasn’t mostly wasteland that nobody wants, someone would have already taken it from him.
He can cry and moan, but he can’t dictate who gets to join whose alliance.
OTOH he is getting a lot of attention, which is the lifeblood of his massive ego. A lot like Trump that way…

It’s pitiful to see him reduced to a panic state, being totally surrounded by the Goliath Ukraine.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

One of the previous links explained that for successful full scale invasion into hostile territory such as Ukraine one would need 700K troops.

That be a successful occupation, not necessarily invasion. But yes, it'd require quite a bit to hold onto Ukraine, if Ukraine didn't want to be annexed by Russia and Russia pushed hard for it via military action.

So US government is either lying about how much Ukrainian population hostile or they are lying about impending invasion.

meanwhile one of Ukrainian ambassadors (I think it in GB) said that NATO membership is not set in stone. He was fired I think, too lazy to check.
Bunch of EU politicians-analysts are suggesting the same thing - Neutrality.
It's just not get reported in US.

It is everywhere in the media that Ukraine joining NATO would be a well down the road prospect.

 

[barbos]

It is everywhere in the media that Ukraine joining NATO would be a well down the road prospect.

Ukraine/Georgia not being in NATO does not prevent US from occupying these countries like right now.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is everywhere in the media that Ukraine joining NATO would be a well down the road prospect.

Ukraine/Georgia not being in NATO does not prevent US from occupying these countries like right now.

Well, yes, if you consider any nation that doesn't involve a Putin puppet running it as being "occupied by the USA", then the US is occupying roughly 4/5's of the nations in the world.

 

[Elixir]

If you consider any nation that doesn't involve a Putin puppet running it as being "occupied by the USA", then the US is occupying roughly 4/5's of the nations in the world.

I’m sure that’s how it seems, if you’re an ambitious despot who looks like an escapee from a Van Eyck painting.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

That's why West is not doing it anymore, plus nukes of course make direct war impossible. Strategy is to surround Russia with smaller and loud puppet states which harass Russia into regime change and hopefully split into a number of smaller states.

So some of the paranoia is silly, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been western meddling.

It's not silly, because even though historically direct invasion of Russia were giant failures on the part of the invaders, these invasions never stopped and they were/are costing russians. French/British did not try to conquer Russia when they invaded Crimea. They only tried to weaken Russia.

Russia does not really need Siberia.

Excuse me, but Russia is the aggressor! Tomorrow they are going to launch an attack that will kill thousands of civilians. And why, because they fear that Ukraine will join Nato in the future. Bye bye nord stream 2.

BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Warns Country is Expecting Russia to Attack on Wednesday

Zelensky asked via official channels for the intel and apparently was satisfied enough to get on board. I'm curious the intel myself. To be honest I didn't think there was intel, only a war of one-upsmanship so that any advance by Putin would be unsurprising. It's possible that Zelensky is simply agreeing to the same tactic.

I'm hoping my friend barbos is correct in his monotonous proclamation about a non-invasion. Maybe Putinator will agree to other measures pertaining to missile deployment.

As I've said before, this kind of brinkmanship behavior is common in Russia and Ukraine, so I think that both Russians and Ukrainians are seeing Putin's behavior as a kind of poker bluff to see if he can get the US, Europe, and/or the Ukrainians to fold rather than run the risk of a full scale invasion. And it does seem like a pretty crazy move for Putin to actually go through with, given that people who start wars can seldom control the twists and turns of fate after it happens. However, nobody really knows how sane or rational Putin is. Just because he looks calm and in control and talks as if he knows what he is doing, that doesn't necessarily mean that he is rational. It's quite possible that there is nothing anyone can say or do that will deter Putin from plunging ahead. The truly scary aspect of this is that he controls the means to set off a nuclear war, so pretty much everyone wants to believe that he is rational and intelligent. Everyone wants him to be bluffing. As barbos said, he could simply back off and walk away. That's what we'd all like to happen.

Meanwhile, the US has moved its remaining embassy staff to Lviv in the western half of the country, which is less likely to come under sudden attack. Most sensitive classified material has been removed from the Kyiv embassy or destroyed, including computer systems. Poland is preparing for a massive influx of refugees. Even if Putin walks away, the end result is that the NATO alliance has been greatly revived and strengthened by his actions. The NATO member Baltic nations will be the next most vulnerable target, but Putin will genuinely risk nuclear war if he attacks them. That is why so many East European nations have rushed to join NATO--to get under the NATO umbrella. It is too late for Ukraine.

More like chess. His strategy is to put Ukraine into a fork, where they are forced to either treat the behavior as a bluff but thereby leave them easy to invade, possibly even establish a permanent occupation without firing a shot, all the while peddling a narrative that Ukraine's separation from Russia was never legitimate and arguing that Russia has a right to preserve order on their own soil; alternatively, Ukraine could prepare for an invasion, thereby leaving them open to gas lighting, so he could peddle an alternate narrative that Ukraine's government is racist, mentally unhinged, and so dangerously militant as to justify police actions, in Donetsk, to "protect Russian nationals." The latter would furnish him with further pretext for amassing troops at their border and even openly marching through Donetsk as if they owned it, and by the time Ukraine had convinced the rest of Europe that this was indeed the plan, the occupation of Donetsk would be a fait accompli. However, this would increase Putin's control over the region, thereby making it increasingly difficult for Ukraine to continue maintaining an independent cultural identity.

The only reasonable means by which Ukraine could counter this imperialistic maneuver is to take the risk that the promotion of Ukrainian patriotic sentiments could translate later into problematic nationalistic inclinations.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So is the Crimean War the Russian like example of the South's issues the Civil War?

 

[SigmatheZeta]

So is the Crimean War the Russian like example of the South's issues the Civil War?

If Crimeans ever develop the gumption, they would tell both Ukraine AND Russia to fuck off.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Latest chess move to recognize Eastern Ukraine as Russian.

You gotta get your lackeys on board too I suppose.

Russia had hoped that an autonomous Donbas within Ukraine would prevent Kyiv from moving decisively toward the West, while also bolstering pro-Russian forces in Ukrainian politics.

However, neither Ukraine nor Russia have implemented their obligations under Minsk, and negotiations on the accords have stalled.

But with diplomatic recognition amounting to Moscow’s support of Donbas independence becoming official, Russia is flirting with effectively renouncing the Minsk agreement, and with it a fragile peace process in Eastern Ukraine.

The only problem I have with the above quote is that it repeats the same erroneous message that this is what "Russia" is doing instead of stating correctly that this what Putin is doing.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

One possibility is that the Ukrainian government could do more to support the ideals of libertarian Marxists, who dislike most nationalists but truly hate dictators like Putin. This would help avert them from depending too heavily on rhetoric that could lead to nationalistic sentiments. Libertarian Marxists generally support education, so I like them.

 

[Copernicus]

Latest chess move to recognize Eastern Ukraine as Russian.

You gotta get your lackeys on board too I suppose.

Russia had hoped that an autonomous Donbas within Ukraine would prevent Kyiv from moving decisively toward the West, while also bolstering pro-Russian forces in Ukrainian politics.

However, neither Ukraine nor Russia have implemented their obligations under Minsk, and negotiations on the accords have stalled.

But with diplomatic recognition amounting to Moscow’s support of Donbas independence becoming official, Russia is flirting with effectively renouncing the Minsk agreement, and with it a fragile peace process in Eastern Ukraine.

The only problem I have with the above quote is that it repeats the same erroneous message that this is what "Russia" is doing instead of stating correctly that this what Putin is doing.

Putin has now claimed to have pulled back a token contingent of forces from the Ukraine border, which may be a signal that he doesn't intend an invasion. Nevertheless, a small pullback, even if real, means nothing. There are still over 100,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, and Putin's word has zero credibility. So the west will need some confirmation that even this token pullback is true.

The Duma has been urging Putin to recognize their puppet governments in Luhan and Donetsk as independent of Ukraine, but that would be a violation of the Minsk agreement that was Putin wants to use as a basis for negotiations. In fact, the Duma is Putin's cat's paw these days, so whatever they propose is likely to serve his needs. In this case, it might be the direction he goes if he has to abandon the Minsk agreement, which requires Ukraine to essentially recognize the loss of the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.

Putin: Some troops near Ukraine leaving; dialogue to go on​