How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

Did Putin just blink? Maybe. But I don't trust him. We need to see solid evidence. If it is a true withdrawal, I think Biden deserves a lot of credit for handling this well. He leaked specific intelligence timely about Russia’s intentions, thus forcing their hand. I just hope there are severe consequences like Kruschev’s Cuba gamble that backfired on him and led to his retirement.

 

[laughing dog]

It is everywhere in the media that Ukraine joining NATO would be a well down the road prospect.

Ukraine/Georgia not being in NATO does not prevent US from occupying these countries like right now.

That suggests that
1) there US troops in Ukraine and Georgia, and
2) that those troops are there against the wishes of the respective governments.

Do you have any evidence that both of those are true?

 

[lpetrich]

You're not paying attention. Putin made a lot of outrageous demands that he should have known that the west couldn't accept. He wanted NATO immediately disbanded in countries that entered the alliance after 1997: Poland, and the balkan countries. Putin wants far more than just Ukraine. Sorry that you didn't realize this. Putin has painted himself into a corner.

That's how you bargain. Putin will be quite happy If NATO/US gets out of US/Georgia.

Eurasian Georgia, I presume -  Georgia (country) - and not the US state. Its Russian name is Gruzin, and its own name for itself is Sakartvelo.

It is just south of the Caucasus Mountains from southernmost European Russia, extending eastward from the Black Sea about 2/3 of the way to the Caspian Sea.

Checking on  Enlargement of NATO - Georgia is in the "Intensified Dialogue" phase.

 

[lpetrich]

There are two territories in Georgia that claim independence, but their independence is not recognized by Georgia or many other nations: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Abkhazia is in NW Georgia on the Black Sea and South Ossetia in N-Central Georgia. Both of these territories border the Caucasus Mountains.

 International recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Russia is the main backer of these breakaway states: Russian tanks enter South Ossetia | News | Al Jazeera back in 2008

Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru support the independence of both A and SO, and Syria A. Tuvalu recognized A and SO, but withdrew a few years later. Vanuatu did likewise with A.

Nauru, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu are small island nations in the Pacific Ocean.

Some other breakaway states recognize A and SO: Transnistria and Artsakh, though Western Sahara (the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic) only recognizes SO.

Transnistria is a thin strip on Moldova's eastern border, and Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, is an ethnic-Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan.

 

[barbos]

It is everywhere in the media that Ukraine joining NATO would be a well down the road prospect.

Ukraine/Georgia not being in NATO does not prevent US from occupying these countries like right now.

Well, yes, if you consider any nation that doesn't involve a Putin puppet running it as being "occupied by the USA", then the US is occupying roughly 4/5's of the nations in the world.

No, but when the police salaries paid by US government or english is made an official language even though nobody speaks it, when US vice-presidents are presiding over official government meetings.

 

[barbos]

Did Putin just blink? Maybe. But I don't trust him. We need to see solid evidence. If it is a true withdrawal, I think Biden deserves a lot of credit for handling this well. He leaked specific intelligence timely about Russia’s intentions, thus forcing their hand. I just hope there are severe consequences like Kruschev’s Cuba gamble that backfired on him and led to his retirement.

You make it sound as if US did well in the Cuban crisis and that roles were the same.
In reality roles were reversed and US did not do too well.

 

[SLD]

Did Putin just blink? Maybe. But I don't trust him. We need to see solid evidence. If it is a true withdrawal, I think Biden deserves a lot of credit for handling this well. He leaked specific intelligence timely about Russia’s intentions, thus forcing their hand. I just hope there are severe consequences like Kruschev’s Cuba gamble that backfired on him and led to his retirement.

You make it sound as if US did well in the Cuban crisis and that roles were the same.
In reality roles were reversed and US did not do too well.

The United States did fine. Kruschev, on the other hand, was removed in part because of the Soviet leadership felt that he had embarrassed the Soviet Union. That’s the point I was making. If Putin did just blink, he may find his position precarious. He could find himself, like Kruschev, spending retirement crying in his dacha.

 

[Copernicus]

...
Well, yes, if you consider any nation that doesn't involve a Putin puppet running it as being "occupied by the USA", then the US is occupying roughly 4/5's of the nations in the world.

No, but when the police salaries paid by US government or english is made an official language even though nobody speaks it, when US vice-presidents are presiding over official government meetings.

I've said before that I think that it is a mistake for Ukraine to try to downgrade Russian as an official language, but I understand what is driving the government to take that position. Ukraine wants to encourage everyone to learn Ukrainian as their primary language. However, it makes perfect sense to make English an official language, because it is the foreign language of choice for young people--far more useful than Russian, if one wants to relate to people in the West. And that is one of the primary goals of the post-Maidan government. Unfortunately, it is highly discriminatory against those with strong ethnic ties to Russia and who are dominant in the Russian langauge--especially for the elderly.

Did Putin just blink? Maybe. But I don't trust him. We need to see solid evidence. If it is a true withdrawal, I think Biden deserves a lot of credit for handling this well. He leaked specific intelligence timely about Russia’s intentions, thus forcing their hand. I just hope there are severe consequences like Kruschev’s Cuba gamble that backfired on him and led to his retirement.

You make it sound as if US did well in the Cuban crisis and that roles were the same.
In reality roles were reversed and US did not do too well.

Barbos was not even alive during the Cuban missile crisis, but he is working from the filtered version of history that he learned in school. I was, and it was not a time that anyone would easily forget. We really did believe that we were on the brink of a nuclear war, and the US would have invaded Cuba. The Russians had to back off first, because they were caught red-handed trying to sneak those missiles in before Kennedy would have been presented with a fait accompli. Khrushchev blinked first, but he sent two letters. Ultimately, the US did remove its missiles from Turkey, as Khrushchev wanted, but they did it afterwards. Here is the critical sequence of events:

Despite the enormous tension, Soviet and American leaders found a way out of the impasse. During the crisis, the Americans and Soviets had exchanged letters and other communications, and on October 26, Khrushchev sent a message to Kennedy in which he offered to remove the Cuban missiles in exchange for a promise by U.S. leaders not to invade Cuba. The following day, the Soviet leader sent a letter proposing that the USSR would dismantle its missiles in Cuba if the Americans removed their missile installations in Turkey.

Officially, the Kennedy administration decided to accept the terms of the first message and ignore the second Khrushchev letter entirely. Privately, however, American officials also agreed to withdraw their nation’s missiles from Turkey. U.S. Attorney General Robert Kennedy (1925-68) personally delivered the message to the Soviet ambassador in Washington, and on October 28, the crisis drew to a close.

Source: Cuban Missile Crisis

I have read that the US knew that the Soviet arsenal of ICBMs was not ready at that time, so they didn't really have any leverage if a war did break out. However, the Soviet government remedied that situation later because of the weakness under Khrushchev. It is likely that Khruschev was fired because of the way this played out, but I remember at the time that he was very unpopular within the Soviet Union. This took place a few years before I visited the Soviet Union with a university Russian immersion program.

 

[barbos]

Did Putin just blink? Maybe. But I don't trust him. We need to see solid evidence. If it is a true withdrawal, I think Biden deserves a lot of credit for handling this well. He leaked specific intelligence timely about Russia’s intentions, thus forcing their hand. I just hope there are severe consequences like Kruschev’s Cuba gamble that backfired on him and led to his retirement.

You make it sound as if US did well in the Cuban crisis and that roles were the same.
In reality roles were reversed and US did not do too well.

The United States did fine. Kruschev, on the other hand, was removed in part because of the Soviet leadership felt that he had embarrassed the Soviet Union. That’s the point I was making. If Putin did just blink, he may find his position precarious. He could find himself, like Kruschev, spending retirement crying in his dacha.

Kruschev did not embarrass US when he had a chance. Whether or not it was the reason for his downfall is debatable.

The comparison you are making is stupid. Nobody in the Russian "elite" is trying to rebuild Soviet Union and PolitBuro, not even Putin himself.

 

[Copernicus]

...
Kruschev did not embarrass US when he had a chance. Whether or not it was the reason for his downfall is debatable.

How was it possible to "embarrass US"??? We were all staring in the face of WWIII at the time. If that had happened, nobody would be left today to remember who had been embarrassed. The fact remains that Khrushchev was forced to blink first in public. His downfall was caused by a number of goofs that included his shoe-pounding event in the UN. A few years later, a visiting Soviet sociologist to my university cited that as her view of why he was fired. She didn't even mention the Cuban missile crisis, which was a sore point for Russians.

The comparison you are making is stupid. Nobody in the Russian "elite" is trying to rebuild Soviet Union and PolitBuro, not even Putin himself.

The Politburo was a Communist Party group. Putin doesn't want or need the Communist Party. He alone holds power in the Russian Federation, so why would he want anyone looking over his shoulder while he did whatever he pleased? He obviously does not want a return to the Soviet Union, which was clearly an extension of the Tsarist Russian Empire. Putin is the leader of the Russian Federation, so he wants a clearly dominant Russian government to be pulling the strings. Hence, he has his "one people" myth that justifies absorbing both Belarus and Ukraine into the Russian nation in his mind. Those former territories of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania were conquered and annexed by the Russian Empire in the 17th and 18th centuries. However, Putin is a creature of the Soviet version of that empire, and he wants it back. He sees all of the former republics and countries that were dominated by the Soviet Union as properly with the sphere of Russian influence, if not outright ownership. This is really about cementing Russian hegemony over the territories that the Soviet Union controlled when Putin was a minor KGB apparatchik in East Germany.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Barbos was not even alive during the Cuban missile crisis, but he is working from the filtered version of history that he learned in school. I was, and it was not a time that anyone would easily forget. We really did believe that we were on the brink of a nuclear war, and the US would have invaded Cuba. The Russians had to back off first, because they were caught red-handed trying to sneak those missiles in before Kennedy would have been presented with a fait accompli. Khrushchev blinked first, but he sent two letters. Ultimately, the US did remove its missiles from Turkey, as Khrushchev wanted, but they did it afterwards

As I recall Kennedy was very forward thinking at the time and had previously argued for the removal of the Turkish missiles. This agrees with his decision on the Bay of Pigs. It is also worth remembering that there were advisors in his cabinet that were arguing for immediate airstrikes and invasion which would have likely prompted a launch of missiles from Cuba, killing millions within their range in the U.S. I lived through that as well and remember regularly diving under my desk at school or heading to a basement shelter as we drilled for an air attack.

 

[SLD]

Well, looks like Puti lied again, no pull back and now cyber attacks on Ukraine - a clear prelude to attack. Fuck him.

 

[Copernicus]

Well, looks like Puti lied again, no pull back and now cyber attacks on Ukraine - a clear prelude to attack. Fuck him.

Unfortunately, that seems to be true. This is why nobody trusts anything that Putin or his government says about their intentions. They are constantly being caught in lies. They show some videos of tanks driving down a road and offer it as evidence that they are leaving. Now we see it as evidence of just another lie. And they are stepping up cyberattacks on the Ukrainian government, especially their military, in order to soften it up for an invasion. Of course, they claim they aren't behind the attacks. Why do they even bother with these lies? I guess it just amuses them to jerk everyone around.

U.S. and NATO say Russia is building up troops near Ukraine, not withdrawing​

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Unfortunately, that seems to be true. This is why nobody trusts anything that Putin or his government says about their intentions. They are constantly being caught in lies. They show some videos of tanks driving down a road and offer it as evidence that they are leaving. Now we see it as evidence of just another lie. And they are stepping up cyberattacks on the Ukrainian government, especially their military, in order to soften it up for an invasion. Of course, they claim they aren't behind the attacks. Why do they even bother with these lies? I guess it just amuses them to jerk everyone around.

If a person has a need to constantly lie there's some psychology involved. Typically it's because the person wishes to see himself as a victim or a hero. Regardless they cannot deal with the truth and so paint a narrative they find more comforting. This is Putin to a T. And Putin doesn't have a counterweight inside Russia so lying becomes normalized. I don't think amusement is involved but could be.

 

[barbos]

Well, looks like Puti lied again, no pull back and now cyber attacks on Ukraine - a clear prelude to attack. Fuck him.

And don't forget he killed Kennedy. And planted fake WMD into Iraq you found.
I don't recall Putin claiming pullback. There was a report about ending of military exercises in Belarus.


Meanwhile Sweden foreign minister choose to reiterate that they are fine without NATO. So much for threats of joining NATO. Looks like a signal to Ukrainian imbeciles.

 

[Copernicus]

Meanwhile Sweden foreign minister choose to reiterate that they are fine without NATO. So much for threats of joining NATO. Looks like a signal to Ukrainian imbeciles.

That's the spin by TASS and other pro-Russia outlets, but it is very misleading. All the Swedish foreign minister said was that Sweden does not now seek to join NATO and that the situation in Ukraine has not changed its position. That's not the same as claiming it will not seek membership, if Russia invades. The statement was more likely aimed at Russian imbeciles than Ukrainian ones. She also said that "we want to be a good, strong NATO partner" before making that statement. So it has no plans to cut its very strong ties with NATO. The statement was one of keeping the status quo, not rejection of NATO.

 

[Elixir]

His downfall was caused by a number of goofs that included his shoe-pounding event in the UN.

I was very young when the shoe pounding thing happened at the UN. Looking back, I was confused, embarrassed and a little scared by that crazy adult’s loss of demeanor.
Later during the missile crisis, one thing that really frightened me was the unstable nature of Russian adults that I assumed, based on the shoe poundings and “we will bury you” stuff. I had lived in Florida, and felt lucky to be in California by then, out of range of Ruskie missiles.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Support for joining NATO in Finland is up. I suspect it is in Sweden also. Russia’s irresponsible acts will just bring more coordinated training exercises and sales for western defense contractors.

Read: https://cepa.org/nato-or-not-finland-is-a-valuable-security-contributor/

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well, looks like Puti lied again, no pull back and now cyber attacks on Ukraine - a clear prelude to attack. Fuck him.

And don't forget he killed Kennedy. And planted fake WMD into Iraq you found.
I don't recall Putin claiming pullback. There was a report about ending of military exercises in Belarus.


Meanwhile Sweden foreign minister choose to reiterate that they are fine without NATO. So much for threats of joining NATO. Looks like a signal to Ukrainian imbeciles.

Oh my gosh. I hope that you don't believe that Russia operating as it is now (bullying neighbors, stealing land, threatening invasion, tanks, and etc.) is going to discourage countries from trying to join NATO. Please tell me that deep inside you understand that Russia is uniting opposition against it. Russia is destroying trust.

 

[barbos]

Support for joining NATO in Finland is up.

So all this is an elaborate scheme to get Finland into NATO?