How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Part of the problem is that Russian refineries have been slow to replace spent supplies, and that may be related on Western sanctions that make it hard for them to get spare parts. I don't know how much fuel shortages had to do with the vociferous complaints by apartment dwellers in the video who lacked heat. It could also be that the owners of the building were not able to meet extortion demands by crooked suppliers. Some were complaining that their two boilers were broken and awaiting repairs. Who knows?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

My advice for anyone involved is to not get too close to any windows. Russia seems to have some of the most powerful ground suction known to exist.

 

[bilby]

My advice for anyone involved is to not get too close to any windows. Russia seems to have some of the most powerful ground suction known to exist.

Hence the well known phrase or saying: "Russia really sucks".

 

[Ford]

My advice for anyone involved is to not get too close to any windows. Russia seems to have some of the most powerful ground suction known to exist.

Hence the well known phrase or saying: "Russia really sucks".

Yeah, but where else can you get a free shot of polonium in your tea?

 

[lpetrich]

Uklraine-funding difficulties:

Biden, Johnson appear still at odds over Ukraine aid, border - ABC News

President Joe Biden hosted top lawmakers for more than an hour to discuss his $106 billion supplemental request that would include roughly $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine as it fights Russia's invasion.

The bill, which also includes aid for Israel and Taiwan as well as $14 billion for border security, has been stalled amid fierce debate over immigration policy as House Republicans demand stricter protocols on asylum and parole

EU parliament steps up criticism of Hungary ahead of Ukraine aid summit | Reuters
noting
The Hungarian government threatens EU values, institutions, and funds, MEPs say | News | European Parliament

Parliament condemns the deliberate, continuous and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government to undermine the EU’s founding values.

In a resolution adopted on Thursday with 345 votes for, 104 against and 29 abstentions, MEPs express strong concern about the further erosion of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary, in particular through the recently adopted so-called ‘national sovereignty protection’ package - which has been compared with Russia’s infamous ‘foreign agents law’.

and

MEPs also condemn the actions of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who last December blocked the essential decision to revise the EU’s long-term budget, including the Ukraine aid package, “in full disrespect and violation of the EU’s strategic interests and in violation of the principle of sincere cooperation”. The EU must not give in to blackmail, they highlight.

EU chief confident all 27 member states will agree on aid to Ukraine | Reuters

• EU leaders to seek agreement on aid to Ukraine on Feb. 1
• Hungary blocked approval of aid package last month
• Some EU lawmakers angry funds to Hungary were unlocked

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine's Major F-16 Delivery Gets New Timeline - Jan 08, 2024 at 3:38 PM EST

A timeline has been established for the expected delivery of at least some of the highly anticipated F-16 fighter jets bound for Ukraine.

Danish newspaper Berlingske reported on Saturday that Denmark's initial delivery of six of the U.S.-made aircraft, which was originally set for early 2024 when announced in August, had been delayed by around six months.

The Danish Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement to Newsweek on Sunday that the shipment was "now expected to happen during the second quarter of 2024," while noting that "the timeline of the donation is subject to change."

The New Voice of Ukraine reported on Sunday that Colonel Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, recently appeared on Ukrainian television to deny a delay, while also suggesting that the jets would arrive in the spring.

The next few months? Late this year? Next year? Those jets won't arrive a moment too soon.

 

[DrZoidberg]

They will fight to the death.

Puh-leeze. Ease up on CNN.

Russia has no choice but to defeat this US Proxy war. Otherwise Russia is no more.

The thing that you are missing is that Ukrainians have nowhere to retreat to. Their backs are to the wall. Your side has the largest country in the world that your soldiers can return to.

As an aside, why in the world would Russia cease to exist if you can't conquer all of Ukraine? Would you not a nation before this war started in 2014? Before the war started, there were two sovereign countries: Russia and Ukraine. If your side wins, there will be no Ukraine. If Ukraine wins, everything will return to how it was prior to 2014.

He's right about that Russia as it is now will cease to exist. Because Russia now has a self image of being allowed to dictate policy in the ex East bloc countries. They see themselves as an imperial power. They also don't understand that NATO countries don't obey USA. They equate NATO with American domination. They see Europe as a two sided conflict with Imperial Russia on one side and imperial USA on the other. Where they're doing, a kind of duty to mankind, by pushing back and protecting Eastern Europe from American domination. As if they're sacrificing themselves to protect, countries like Ukraine, from American domination.

That idea of this Russia will die if Putin loses. It will lead all the corrupt Russian puppets under the thumb of Russia to break free.

And the death of that Russia is a good thing. Its an outdated 19th century anachronism. The age of empire is over. Russia needs to get the memo.

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

Ukraine's Major F-16 Delivery Gets New Timeline - Jan 08, 2024 at 3:38 PM EST

A timeline has been established for the expected delivery of at least some of the highly anticipated F-16 fighter jets bound for Ukraine.

Danish newspaper Berlingske reported on Saturday that Denmark's initial delivery of six of the U.S.-made aircraft, which was originally set for early 2024 when announced in August, had been delayed by around six months.

The Danish Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement to Newsweek on Sunday that the shipment was "now expected to happen during the second quarter of 2024," while noting that "the timeline of the donation is subject to change."

The New Voice of Ukraine reported on Sunday that Colonel Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, recently appeared on Ukrainian television to deny a delay, while also suggesting that the jets would arrive in the spring.

The next few months? Late this year? Next year? Those jets won't arrive a moment too soon.

I'm counting on Russia to let us know when they've arrived.

 

[SLD]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-kick-off-biggest-drills-decades-with-some-90000-troops-2024-01-18/

So NATO is holding the largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War. Love it. It will run from January 31st to May. Russia is calling it a provocation. They are calling it a demonstration of force. Maybe. But it is not an attack. It includes over 50 ships, over 80 fighter jets, helicopters, and drones; and at least 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles. sound like a lot and it is, but it is not enough for a full scale military attack on Russia. So calm down.

But will Russia actually misread it, and launch an attack against it?

Nannh. They’re not yet that desperate. Yet.

 

[Patooka]

But will Russia actually misread it, and launch an attack against it?

With what? Some antiquated Korean-era shit and that one T-90 that didn't get sold onto the black market in Syria?

 

[TV and credit cards]

“Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world. This war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO. This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth — democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too.”

Top NATO military officer urges allies and leaders to plan for the unexpected in Ukraine

A top NATO military officer says the war in Ukraine could “determine the fate of the world.” NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Rob Bauer says Western armies and political leaders must drastically change the way they help Kyiv fend off invading Russian forces.

apnews.com

"We must amplify the transformation we have begun" to respond more quickly to Ukraine's needs, Macron said in a New Year's address to the French armed forces.
"We can't let Russia think that it can win," Macron added, warning that "a Russian victory would mean the end of European security".

Europe to Step up Ammunition Production Amid Ukraine Warnings

Ukraine meanwhile called on western nations to stop Russia sourcing key parts for its own weapons production for the war that will soon be two years old and has left tens of thousands dead.

www.kyivpost.com

Between Vladimir Putin and the Republican controlled US House of Representatives, Russia's going to end up with democracy armed to the teeth, pressing right up and against.

 

[TV and credit cards]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-kick-off-biggest-drills-decades-with-some-90000-troops-2024-01-18/

So NATO is holding the largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War. Love it. It will run from January 31st to May. Russia is calling it a provocation. They are calling it a demonstration of force. Maybe. But it is not an attack. It includes over 50 ships, over 80 fighter jets, helicopters, and drones; and at least 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles. sound like a lot and it is, but it is not enough for a full scale military attack on Russia. So calm down.

But will Russia actually misread it, and launch an attack against it?

Nannh. They’re not yet that desperate. Yet.

Not misread it but Vlad will have to wag his dick at it. In some fashion, throw a rock wide of the mark and run away.

 

[SLD]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-kick-off-biggest-drills-decades-with-some-90000-troops-2024-01-18/

So NATO is holding the largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War. Love it. It will run from January 31st to May. Russia is calling it a provocation. They are calling it a demonstration of force. Maybe. But it is not an attack. It includes over 50 ships, over 80 fighter jets, helicopters, and drones; and at least 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles. sound like a lot and it is, but it is not enough for a full scale military attack on Russia. So calm down.

But will Russia actually misread it, and launch an attack against it?

Nannh. They’re not yet that desperate. Yet.

Not misread it but Vlad will have to wag his dick at it. In some fashion, throw a rock wide of the mark and run away.

IIRC there’s been two things from Russia hit Poland but both because Ukraine knocked them out of the sky and they fell. But both created incidents and warnings. Russia deliberately targeting Poland or the Baltics is something else entirely different. NATO would respond. Russia couldn’t handle another front right now.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Not misread it but Vlad will have to wag his dick at it. In some fashion, throw a rock wide of the mark and run away.

You gotta give that Asshole credit. He's a damn efficient tyrant. Sure, his military is pitiful considering the potential it has and the strength it once had but the guy is rich beyond anyone's ability to accurately reckon. Before his Ukraine invasion I'm certain he had discussions with his cronies trying to gauge their support. No doubt some of those suckups didn't like the idea so much. But some licked his balls and told him they'd lick his balls all the way to hell. Those former types tend to fall out of windows and the latter types are still around.

If you want to keep your head and your stolen wealth you have to lick balls in Putinstan. If you have knowledge, show courage and initiative, question whether licking balls is really a good thing, you will be eliminated. That's why there is no effective leadership in Putinstan anymore, just a tyrant, ball lickers and bunches of poor slobs getting killed to keep the tyrant and the ball lickers alive and unaccountable.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

He's right about that Russia as it is now will cease to exist. Because Russia now has a self image of being allowed to dictate policy in the ex East bloc countries. They see themselves as an imperial power. They also don't understand that NATO countries don't obey USA. They equate NATO with American domination. They see Europe as a two sided conflict with Imperial Russia on one side and imperial USA on the other. Where they're doing, a kind of duty to mankind, by pushing back and protecting Eastern Europe from American domination. As if they're sacrificing themselves to protect, countries like Ukraine, from American domination.

That idea of this Russia will die if Putin loses. It will lead all the corrupt Russian puppets under the thumb of Russia to break free.

And the death of that Russia is a good thing. Its an outdated 19th century anachronism. The age of empire is over. Russia needs to get the memo.

There's another factor.

If Ukraine manages to stick it to Moscow who is next? To return to the status quo ante is to invite other rebellions and with a much weakened army to deal with them.

Ukraine isn't going to invade Russia, but a Ukrainian victory could easily spell the end of Russia.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-kick-off-biggest-drills-decades-with-some-90000-troops-2024-01-18/

So NATO is holding the largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War. Love it. It will run from January 31st to May. Russia is calling it a provocation. They are calling it a demonstration of force. Maybe. But it is not an attack. It includes over 50 ships, over 80 fighter jets, helicopters, and drones; and at least 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles. sound like a lot and it is, but it is not enough for a full scale military attack on Russia. So calm down.

But will Russia actually misread it, and launch an attack against it?

Nannh. They’re not yet that desperate. Yet.

Not misread it but Vlad will have to wag his dick at it. In some fashion, throw a rock wide of the mark and run away.

IIRC there’s been two things from Russia hit Poland but both because Ukraine knocked them out of the sky and they fell. But both created incidents and warnings. Russia deliberately targeting Poland or the Baltics is something else entirely different. NATO would respond. Russia couldn’t handle another front right now.

Which actually is the fault of both. If your weapon is programmed to fly over a neutral party's territory it's your fault. Ukraine was likewise errant in shooting at them but that's done quickly and nowhere near the sin.

Note what has been happening in the Gulf--we were knocking down Houthi drones heading for Israel. That's because they were avoiding overflying other territory and routed the drones over the water instead--and into the engagement envelope of our ships there.

 

[bilby]

If Ukraine manages to stick it to Moscow who is next? To return to the status quo ante is to invite other rebellions

"other rebellions"??

Ukraine didn't rebel; It was invaded despite being a sovereign country. Even the successor to the Soviet Union recognised the independence of the states that made up the commonwealth.

They even called it the "Commonwealth of Independent States", ffs.

 

[Patooka]

If Ukraine manages to stick it to Moscow who is next? To return to the status quo ante is to invite other rebellions

"other rebellions"??

Ukraine didn't rebel; It was invaded despite being a sovereign country. Even the successor to the Soviet Union recognised the independence of the states that made up the commonwealth.

They even called it the "Commonwealth of Independent States", ffs.

An argument could be made that overthrowing the Putin propped up governments in Belarus and Afghanistan could be construed as rebellions.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If Ukraine manages to stick it to Moscow who is next? To return to the status quo ante is to invite other rebellions

"other rebellions"??

Ukraine didn't rebel; It was invaded despite being a sovereign country. Even the successor to the Soviet Union recognised the independence of the states that made up the commonwealth.

They even called it the "Commonwealth of Independent States", ffs.

I'm saying that if Ukraine succeeds in escaping that it will encourage others to try. Places that have not yet tried to throw off Moscow's yoke.

 

[bilby]

If Ukraine manages to stick it to Moscow who is next? To return to the status quo ante is to invite other rebellions

"other rebellions"??

Ukraine didn't rebel; It was invaded despite being a sovereign country. Even the successor to the Soviet Union recognised the independence of the states that made up the commonwealth.

They even called it the "Commonwealth of Independent States", ffs.

I'm saying that if Ukraine succeeds in escaping that it will encourage others to try. Places that have not yet tried to throw off Moscow's yoke.

I know that's what you are saying; I am pointing out (again) that referring to Ukraine's independence as a "rebellion" or "escaping" is buying in to the false narrative of Russian propaganda that claims that Ukraine is their posession in the first place.

Ukraine has not been a Russian posession since the break up of the Russian Empire. Ukraine declared independence from Russia on 22 January 1918; It became a Soviet posession on 30 December 1922.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was once again recognised as an independent state; Independent states do not "rebel against" neighbouring states (no matter how powerful), nor is it necessary to "escape" from those neighbours. It may (as in this case) be necessary for them to repel or fight off an invasion by a powerful neighbour; But that is an act of self-defence, not a "rebellion" or an "escape".

Belgium didn't "rebel against" or attempt to "escape from" Germany in 1914; Likewise Ukraine is not rebelling against nor escaping from Russia in 2024.

These subtle shades of meaning matter. They shape public opinion. Putin is well aware that public opinion in the US and EU is strongly in favour of assisting Ukraine in defending herself; But is rather less favourable to assisting Ukraine to rebel against (or escape from) Russian authority. The latter requires the (false) presumption that Russia has some right to assert authority over Ukraine.