How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[DrZoidberg]

The street in the Nikopol was named after the guy in the center

All the videos you are posting prove nothing. They're no doubt compiled and spread by Russian propagandists. It's easy to plant stuff, or take stuff out of context to make a point. You can "prove" anything that way.

So you honestly believe that all these videos of ukro-gestapo beating men into the ukro-army are russian fakes?
Fine, believe what you want.

I didn't say that. You're the one adding details in order to create a straw man. What I said is that things can be taken out of context. Who the fuck knows are really happening in those videos.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Why should I care about some unknown textbook written in a language unknown to me with unknown distribution and used in possibly zero school classrooms? Because you THINK it says something wrong, and you THINK it looks legitimate but also you admit that the publishers say they had a misprint?

Don't know. But you did post this, I guess you cared enough for that.
Why should you care? Because I am not unique. There are a lot of people in Russia who care and support "invasion" based on shit like this book. Yes, I literally think that this book alone justifies invading this piece of land.

Sometimes it is best just to let a poster speak for themselves.

Yes, I can repeat again. Russia should have "invaded" Ukraine in 1990s, took everythging which was illegally attached to it by soviets and then cut the rest loose.
In fact ukro-nazis themselves say that.
But I know what it was not done and could not have been done.

You are describing a world that died between 1945 and 1970. The age of empire is over.

USSR was created by what was left of Russia after WWI. Imperial Russia was a multi-ethnic empire. After WWI the global trend was "the right of self rule". Stalin (the the rest of the communist leaders) couldn't give less of a fuck about that. They just continued Imperial Russian policies of imperialist expansion and aggression. While the rest of the world dismantled their empires and focused on peaceful co-existence. After WW2 the USSR was the single biggest threat to world peace.

Today we don't see borders as natural extensions of it's people. Nobody talks about "natural borders" anymore. That died with the fall of the Third Reich. Today we see borders as a result of accidents in history. And for the sake of everyone it's best to just keep them stable, and focus on doing bussiness. That was the prevailing paradigm in 1990.

Russia had no right to invade anything in Ukraine in 1990. The borders of what used to be the Warsaw pact is a complete mess. Just because some Russian ancestor at some point managed to grab some land and then lose it, doesn't give Russia a free pass to invade now. That's ludicrous. It's also a way of thinking that will lead to perpetual wars. Which it did. Until we shifted to the current paradigm on nations and nation building.

 

[ZiprHead]

In other news, according to western press, Macron was reported as admitting privately that Ukraine is going to collapse soon.
People speculate why all the warmongering and explanation apparently that he is trying to muddy the water, because french troops are already there and are being decimated. So the cunning plan is to send them officially to cover the huge losses.

I can find no western press reporting that. Unsurprising.

I do find a lot of reports that Macron is considering sending French troops to aid Ukraine.

 

[DrZoidberg]

In other news, according to western press, Macron was reported as admitting privately that Ukraine is going to collapse soon.
People speculate why all the warmongering and explanation apparently that he is trying to muddy the water, because french troops are already there and are being decimated. So the cunning plan is to send them officially to cover the huge losses.

I can find no western press reporting that. Unsurprising.

I do find a lot of reports that Macron is considering sending French troops to aid Ukraine.

French troops are already in Ukraine. They do behind the front duties. Ie not combat roles.

This is extremely valuable for Ukraine since it allows them to move their behind the front troops, to the front.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

French troops are already in Ukraine. They do behind the front duties. Ie not combat roles.

This is extremely valuable for Ukraine since it allows them to move their behind the front troops, to the front.

Fantastic, if true.

 

[TV and credit cards]

French troops are already in Ukraine. They do behind the front duties. Ie not combat roles.

This is extremely valuable for Ukraine since it allows them to move their behind the front troops, to the front.

Fantastic, if true.

I found it interesting that this comment would initially come from Macron. I'd think Poland or those feeling more of a threat from Russia would be initiating such calls. It makes me think this may be by design.
The Design: That if Ukraine is forced into some agreement with Russia, giving up some current territory and knowing full well any agreement with Russia isn't worth the paper it's written on and Russia would be within a few short years moving on Odesa to secure the southern coast and link up with Transnistria, it would be a bulwark against such dickery to have EU troops in Ukraine effectively having it under NATO protection without yet being part of NATO. If you'll pardon the run-on.

By the way, the Romanian military base at Mihail Kogalniceanu on the Black Sea coast is being greatly expanded and will be the largest NATO base in Europe surpassing the US Ramstein Air Base.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I found it interesting that this comment would initially come from Macron. I'd think Poland or those feeling more of a threat from Russia would be initiating such calls. It makes me think this may be by design.

It definitely sounds by design, sounds smart for a lot of reasons. The Russian propaganda machine will have a field day but at the same time hesitate to act against Europe proper. France and Germany are Europe proper as opposed to those states which have become aligned more lately with the west. It's definitely an escalation but a good one. I hope the French have the stomach for it.

 

[ZiprHead]

A terror attack in Moscow just occured. Three men dressed military style garb burst into a concert hall just before the show started and started mowing down people with automatic weapons and at least one grenade. The concert hall is now on fire.

I don't give a crap what your cause is but this is not the way to promote it.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A terror attack in Moscow just occured. Three men dressed military style garb burst into a concert hall just before the show started and started mowing down people with automatic weapons and at least one grenade. The concert hall is now on fire.

I don't give a crap what your cause is but this is not the way to promote it.

If Putin tries to play this as Ukrainian connected, it will be for local consumption only. It won't play on an international stage. Even with what Russians have done within Ukraine, any connection to Ukraine whatsoever would only work against western Ukrainian support.

 

[SLD]

A terror attack in Moscow just occured. Three men dressed military style garb burst into a concert hall just before the show started and started mowing down people with automatic weapons and at least one grenade. The concert hall is now on fire.

I don't give a crap what your cause is but this is not the way to promote it.

If Putin tries to play this as Ukrainian connected, it will be for local consumption only. It won't play on an international stage. Even with what Russians have done within Ukraine, any connection to Ukraine whatsoever would only work against western Ukrainian support.

Zelensky denying any Ukraine connection. Doesn't make sense for Ukrainians to do it. Nor is it the way to react to it. Maybe Chechen separatists again? They've been used by Putin as cannon fodder. Other disgruntled military?

But it will not help. It may result in a very serious escalation. I hope it won't result in either nukes or NATO involvement.

As I was typing this, they are now saying ISIS has taken responsibility. Not sure what impact that will have.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Kremlin being full of shit in 3, 2, 1...
Interfax quoted the FSB security service as saying the four suspected gunmen had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine.
The Russian version of Rahm Emanuel's "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The Kremlin being full of shit in 3, 2, 1...
Interfax quoted the FSB security service as saying the four suspected gunmen had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine.
The Russian version of Rahm Emanuel's "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

So these guys pull off a massacre and then just get themselves arrested heading for Ukraine? Clearly the FSB needs to up its game. They were probably headed to recover Navalny's body so they could perform resuscitation. That makes more sense.

 

[Elixir]

Russia has arrested 11 usual suspects, as predicted.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Kremlin being full of shit in 3, 2, 1...
Interfax quoted the FSB security service as saying the four suspected gunmen had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine.
The Russian version of Rahm Emanuel's "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

So these guys pull off a massacre and then just get themselves arrested heading for Ukraine? Clearly the FSB needs to up its game. They were probably headed to recover Navalny's body so they could perform resuscitation. That makes more sense.

Militant Islamist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for Friday's rampage but there were indications that Russia was pursuing a Ukrainian link, despite emphatic denials from Ukrainian officials that Kyiv had anything to do with it.

Yep. You could almost write this bit of history before it even happens.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Living in Russia has to be tough for a principled, intelligent, informed person. Navalny and his supporters within China's gas station are proof of that.

If Russia gets just a little bit weaker, China will be easily able to walk in and take what they want. And oh how ironic… Russia won’t even have oil money to fight back with.

China could basically walk in and take whatever it wants now except for the issue of nukes. Russia has bled an awful lot of it's combat power against Ukraine, they couldn't hope to fight a two-front war.

The Chinese people are happy with Xi Jinping as long as China is prosperous. The Chinese economy is a factory for the rest of the world. The Chinese economy is completely dependent on world peace and stability. While China is now flexing their muscles, they do not want war. It's bad for business. And with the Chinese construction bubble's collapse, this is not the time to rock the boat. Things can get ugly fast in China.

True, China isn't going to invade Russia because of the political consequences. I'm saying that from a military standpoint it would be a cakewalk.

And I think China is in for hard times no matter what. They based their economy on an unsustainable growth rate--it had to slow as they approached a modern tech base but instead Beijing kept putting their thumb on the scale and they're way into overshoot territory.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia has released their "compromise position peace plan" for Ukraine:

MSN

The plan requires the following: 1) complete and unconditional surrender; 2) demilitarization; 3) dismiss all constitutional authorities; 4) "forced denazification programs encompassing all authorities; 5) Ukraine must pay compensation to Russia, including reimbursing relatives of Russian soldiers 6) officially recognize that the entire territory of Ukraine belongs to the Russian Federation".

I'd like to know if anyone honestly thinks that this is reasonable or that a sane person would give in to this?

But regime in Kiev was the first who suggested unconditional surrender (of Russia)
And I did not see you complaining about that.

Russia is winning this war and and will be the one imposing conditions.

No they didn't! They only asked for Russian withdraw from their land! That's all.

Yes, and reparations. That's called unconditional surrender.

They would like reparations but if you pull your dick out of the meat grinder they'll stop fighting.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

A terror attack in Moscow just occured. Three men dressed military style garb burst into a concert hall just before the show started and started mowing down people with automatic weapons and at least one grenade. The concert hall is now on fire.

I don't give a crap what your cause is but this is not the way to promote it.

Putin wishes ‘speedy recovery’ to victims of Moscow shooting – as it happened

Terror group says it was behind attack as authorities say number of dead could rise; gunmen appear not to have been captured

www.theguardian.com

Yeah, it's the Guardian, but this isn't their usual bias. They seem to have silently walked it back but this link is still there--effectively implicating Putin.

 

[bilby]

The Kremlin being full of shit in 3, 2, 1...
Interfax quoted the FSB security service as saying the four suspected gunmen had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine.
The Russian version of Rahm Emanuel's "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

So these guys pull off a massacre and then just get themselves arrested heading for Ukraine? Clearly the FSB needs to up its game. They were probably headed to recover Navalny's body so they could perform resuscitation. That makes more sense.

Militant Islamist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for Friday's rampage but there were indications that Russia was pursuing a Ukrainian link, despite emphatic denials from Ukrainian officials that Kyiv had anything to do with it.

Yep. You could almost write this bit of history before it even happens.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/

I am struggling to recall the details, but there was a TV show or movie in the 1970s or '80s in the UK in which some bank robbers from London planned to steal explosives from an Army base. One of the robbers is worried that this theft will cause a massive police search for the perpetrators, but the ringleader says "No, we just need to be overheard speaking with Irish accents, and they will never even think of looking at us as suspects".

If you're not in any way connected with Ukraine, you can probably commit any crime you like in Russia right now, confident that the authorities will go off chasing wild geese, and not give you a second glance.

 

[Copernicus]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

 

[TomC]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

The list of people with motivation is so long it's mind numbing.
Russian oligarchs have a history of fixing problems with murder. Isis has their own reasons for hating Russians. Taliban is the result of the 1980s invasion of Afghanistan. Ukrainian people, Jewish people the list is endless.

Putin has plenty of reasons to shoot up some muscovites and blame it on Ukraine. Lots. And he's got the power to get it done and control of the media to spin it.
Tom