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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

steve_bank said:
in Russia today there are no checks and balances. The legislature rubber stamps Putin.
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That's technically true, in practice though, Putin is indirectly checked by the state of the economy and by oligarchs.
Whereas US does not have any checks and balances when it comes to foreign policies, none at all, US press and Congress ruber stamps any war your neocon advisers to POTUS start.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Russia is at it again:


I don't think that severe economic consequences are going to deter Russia. I know that the west has been helping Ukraine up it's defensive capability. It will be painful for Russia to invade. Perhaps invasion could be prevented if Nato moved troops directly into Ukraine. But that seems like just temping WW3.

Another option is to have the shut Russia from the Belgium-based SWIFT system of financial payments that moves money among thousands of banks around the world. This would hurt Russia great. It could cut them off half their oil export revenue and a third of their foreign trade. I've seen it reported that
Russia depends on its oil and natural gas exports for more than one-third of its federal revenues, and depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow.
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That is not Russia's real problem.

From Google
Russia's population 144 million.
Ukraine's population 44.5 million

GDP.
Russia 1.486 Trillion USD
Italy 1.886 Trillion USD
Germany 3.806 Trillions GPD

Ukraine is not a tiny little nation. Invading Ukraine and subjugating Ukraine and holding it is going to be expensive. And Russia, long term can't pay that costly bill. And it is not like Russia can take the Dombass and leave the rest.
They will eventually get NATO in Ukraine. And anybody in Ukraine that is not 110% pro-Ukrainian will be viewed as potential future separatists to used as a cat's paw for future Russian invasions. As the assassinations and death squads start up to eliminate pro-Russian elements, that may force Russia into an attempt to invade and take over all of Ukraine.

Russia does not have the money and resources to do that long term. Gobbling up a nation 1/3 the population of Russia when Russia's GDP is less than that of Italy is doomed.

*NOW* lets us talk about the cost of sanctions, embargoes, and other economic penalties for Russia to come. On top of occupying Ukraine, and the costs of that long term.

I do remember when the neocons in the US were urging Bush to invade Iraq. Those morons were actively planning six wars in the Middle east. Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere. Pax Americana. That turned out to be a bust. Pootie and his pals have no more sense than the US neocons of yesteryear.

If I was Biden, I would have the US experts lay out these numbers and would have a long chat with Pootie. It isn't Western sanctions that will hurt Russia. Russia is about to become a failed third world state. This is going to be a hard lesson for Russia.
 
barbos said:
steve_bank said:
In the morning news.

An independent pole in Russia says about 50% of Russians support using military force to keep NATO out of Russia, despite Ukraine and NATO saing it will never happen Putin's home propaganda is working.

Russia stockpiled gold and cash sufficient to weather sanctions. Banking restrictions as they are won't have much of an effect. Along with that the main Russian banks are not targeted.

In London it is an open secret that Putin and others have laundered money in real estate and other investments in London. The Russians managing the money in London are known. Yet the Russian money in London is not being sanctioned, possible collusion. Cutting off those funds and assets would directly affect Putin and his inner circle.

The sanctions so far by the USA are weak and will havetle pressure on Putin.

Listening to multiple outlets my impression is so far the response is soft, nothing extreme and crippling as inferred by Biden.

Ukrainians civilians are arming themselves. It appears they will fight. The fundamental problem is Russia's air superiority. We may see a lot of bloody killing by Russia live and in color. From the reporting Ukraine will put up a good fight and it won't be easy for Russia, but in the end they lose.

And of course, Trump has complemented Putin as being smart.
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So NATO expansion is a response to high-end corruption in Russia?
did I get that right?
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NATO was formed for two reasons as I see it. The primary reason was to provide a deterrence to Russia and a WWIII in Europe. Post war Stalin weny on a land grab. IMO Russian communism was no bteer than the Nazi regime.

NATO was part of the stability that led to post war economic stability and growth. Russia stagnated behind its self imposed ideological Iron Curtain. The other reason a European mutual defense treaty put a damper on long historical European disputes and conflicts. Divides still exist, like Brexit but no more wars. Historically the European cooperation and lack of armed conflict is unprecedented.

Russia stagnated behind its self imposed isolation behind the Iron Curtain. Its economy never provided basic needs. There were self created famines brought on by collectivization and mismanagement. In fact the west in the early 20th century may have sved the revolution by providing food aid.

From reporting from Russia there are Russians who think NATO and the west are intentionally 'holding Russia back'. All countries have corruption, in Russia it is a way of life.

Russia is a dictatorship-oligharcy-cleptocracy. When the Soviet system collapsed all the major industrail assets were sold dirt cheap to Soviet insiders. Putin's insiders take what they want, and put the money into wetern land and invetments. Just like Hitler and the Nazi insiders. Hitler preented a an average man persona, in reality he was rich for his time and got exemption from taxes. Putin s says he nothing but hs salary, which is patently false.

NATO has never initiated agression. The rety prevents that. NATO can not vote to invade Russia. In contrast over here we saw Russian tanks in Poland to prop up a puppet regime and deal with Solidarity. We see the same aggression by Putin and Russia today.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Gobbling up a nation 1/3 the population of Russia when Russia's GDP is less than that of Italy is doomed.
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I don’t think Pootey gives a rat’s ass if Russians starve and the Country is bankrupt. HE will still be one of the richest individuals in the world, and will be remembered as the guy who tried to restore Mother Russia to its former Soviet glory.
He doesn’t even have to succeed to attain that legacy.
 
barbos said:
steve_bank said:
Post war Stalin went on a land grab
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What land he grabbed? do you know?
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At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union occupied Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland and eastern Germany.
Instead of returning those Countries’ sovereignty, Stalin occupied, suppressed and plundered those countries but…

They overextended themselves and the Soviet Union became a failed State. Pootey wants to imagine it as glorious. Without NATO he’d be trying the same stunt he’s pulling in Ukraine.
 
This is the existential problem that Ukraine has. 58DA3DAA-6F47-4BEA-8E63-A53D10CD0EBE.png
The eastern part is pro Russian. The west is fundamentally not. By letting those regions go, they could effectively become pro western With little interference from other regions of Ukraine that Pootey hasn’t taken. The problem is that Pootey can’t be trusted not to start grabbing more of Ukraine. I suspect he’ll stop for now. But 5 years from now he may start creating problems in other Russian areas of Ukraine such as Dnipropetrovsk or Odessa. It will be a delicate balance to stop him.
 
SLD said:
The problem is that Pootey can’t be trusted not to start grabbing more of Ukraine. I suspect he’ll stop for now. But 5 years from now he may start creating problems in other Russian areas of Ukraine such as Dnipropetrovsk or Odessa. It will be a delicate balance to stop him.
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So according to your theory, Putin waited 22 years for the latest move?
14 years for US led coup and then 8 years for the next grab.
With that speed Putin will get to Paris in 2145.

That's patience. I wish Hitler was that patient. He would have started WW2 in 1955.
 
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barbos said:


finished first 11 minutes of this history lecture. So far better than his usual stuff.
The guy looks genuinely pissed off, I like it. I usually get annoyed by his calm demeanor.
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Срочное обращение Путина по вопросу признания ДНР и ЛНР
Srochnoye obrashcheniye Putina po voprosu priznaniya DNR i LNR
(Google Translate)
Putin's urgent appeal on the recognition of the DNR and LNR

The Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
 
barbos said:
SLD said:
This is the existential problem that Ukraine has. View attachment 37362
The eastern part is pro Russian. The west is fundamentally not.
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So you did watch Mearsheimer video!
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Oh sure. I also read his book. But where you’re wrong is that Mearshimer supports Putin’s moves. Mearshimer’s point is that we should have anticipated this from Russia. And that’s true. We should have. We could have stopped it but it would have required action in the 90’s. Bush’s policies as well were just not well thought out. Bush in fact may prove to be the ultimate destruction of the United States. And I still blame Ralph Nader.
 
SLD said:
Oh sure. I also read his book. But where you’re wrong is that Mearshimer supports Putin’s moves.
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I am not wrong, I never said he supported it. I said he understands it and would have done the same thing in his place.
And if you ask any retired american general, they would tell you that they would have done the same thing. That's why no american journalist would do such a thing.
Politicians would lie of course, that's why journalists can ask them anything.
 
SLD said:
Bush in fact may prove to be the ultimate destruction of the United States
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Well, according to records it was Bush who, when don't remember his name told him that US need to throw russians a bone, famously replied "We fucking won Cold War" or something to that effect.

Clinton could have thrown a bone too. And another Bush after 9-11, instead he started georgian war. US have lost all good will and trust in Russia.

Problem with your presidents is that they are all idiots who know nothing except how to get elected, they defer all foreign policies to neocon cunts.
 
barbos said:
SLD said:
Bush in fact may prove to be the ultimate destruction of the United States
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Well, according to records it was Bush who, when don't remember his name told him that US need to throw russians a bone, famously replied "We fucking won Cold War" or something to that effect.

Clinton could have thrown a bone too. And another Bush after 9-11, instead he started georgian war. US have lost all good will and trust in Russia.
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I meant W. Not his father.
 
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