How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[DrZoidberg]

Here's a good even headed Triggernometry video explaining why Trump got angry with Zelensky



I'm so fucking sick of today's media climate. It's not just that we're only exposed to biased news speaking to our base. But today, we're effectively shielded from reality. Unless we make an active effort to see other points of view. And this is harder than ever. Because Youtube and Facebook are invisibly filtering out the stuff you should see, in favour of the stuff you want to see. It's like everyone is delusional at the same time. And we have no way of knowing who's the most delusional. Is it me? Who the fuck knows?!? This is in a time where we have more access to correct information and fact checking than ever before. But how the fuck do you fact check stuff if it's unclear what needs to be fact checked, and what fact checkers are reliable?

I'm sick of both sidsing. If I have no reason to give Putin or Trump the benefit of the doubt, and I don't, then I won't. Oh am I being unfair to some of the most powerful people in the world who don't give a shit about anything other than power? Boohoo, fuck off.

He's not both sidsing. As if it's a competition of whose the most virtuous. He's just explaining what both sides want and their perspective.

At no point is Kisin defending Trump.

Trump thinks the war in Ukraine is an unnecessary cost and wants it ended ASAP, no matter what. He doesn't care about moral implications. He just wants the American government to spend less money. That's, in his mind, what his mission is

Then why was intelligence sharing cut off? Intelligence already obtained doesn't cost any money to pass along. That serves only to weaken Ukraine's position and force a surrender favorable to Russia's side. Also, why does Trump care whether the war continues or not once the US stops sending aid, if cost is the only concern? The war needn't end to minimize cost, and in fact can be a net benefit to our defense contractors who can sell arms to Europe and Ukraine if they can afford them (also increasing government revenue via taxation of wages and profits, protecting jobs, etc.)

On your theory these facts are quite puzzling.

A war is incredibly expensive for everyone. Even those not in the war. Any money (production capacity) in a market diverted away from peaceful production and trade is a loss for everyone. When the Nazis got the brilliant idea to send the Jews to concentation camps and take their money. They brilliantly thought they'd make the German government rich, with all this Jew gold. When the moment a Jew was arrested Germany immediatly lost money. Depite adding that gold to the German coffers. Or rather, wealth. Because that Jew was no longer an active participant in the German economy. It wasn't a brilliant idea. It was dumb. Because Hitler was stupid. Later Idi Amin made the same stupid conclusion when he kicked all the Indians out of Uganda. And now you.

Everyone in the whole world is made more poor because of the war in Ukraine. If there's peace that will, very quickly, financially benefit those who voted for Trump, ni a very direct way.

I suggest you read up on the Broken Window Fallacy

Broken windows theory - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You need to separate GNP and actual wealth generation. GNP is just a proxy for wealth. It's a handy measurement. But if you stare blindly at the number, you might draw the erroneous conclusion that war makes people rich. Or war production makes us rich. It can make a couple of rare individuals slightly better off. But war is almost entirely a destructive, for everyone. It can be justified for lots of different reasons. Very few of them are financial. And in today's modern interconnected market, war is universally bad news for the economy. For everyone's economy.

I think Trump thinks that Ukraine can't win this war. I think Trump thinks that all supporting Ukraine will do is prolong the inevitable. If Russia is going to win, sooner or later, it might as well be sooner. That'll be helped by cutting off intel. I think that's how Trump is reasoning. And just to make this super clear... I don't agree with Trump. I think he's wrong. But explaining why Trump is doing what he's doing, is not the same thing as defending Trump

This is only true if you treat Ukraine and the US as a single economic unit. Using your broken windows analogy, breaking windows enriches window makers and window installers but impoverishes those who had their windows broken. Essentially a transfer of wealth from one group to another, with a net loss if you combine both groups. However, in this case, Ukraine is having its windows broken and the US is the window manufacturer and installer.

Now if Ukraine has peace under Russian occupation and control, I suppose there could be a mutually beneficial economic relationship that can arise from that, but it is very indirect and debatable whether the US would benefit more, and I seriously doubt Trump would even be able to understand that, let alone have performed a cost/benefit analysis.

Trump is a businessman. I think this is the one and only thing he actually understands.



If he wants Americans to quickly have a greater purchasing power stopping the war in Ukraine is the way to do it is the fastest.



Ukraine is one of the world's biggest grain producers. Or was. The price of grain has the greatest impact on how much our poorest citizens can purchase.



And for this, who controls Ukraine is pretty irrelevant. No matter who controls Ukraine they will want to maximise yields and maximise profits.

Such an analysis would also require a further calculation on the cost of appeasement in terms of risk of future wars in Europe and the security of other parts of the world such as Taiwan.

Does Trump strike you as a guy who thinks lomg term? I'm pretty sure that Trump has a laser focus to look good during his term. I don't think he cares long term. He also, has explicitly stated that he doesn't care about world peace. He doesn't think it should be USA's problem. Ie, back to the Monroe-doctrine

 

[barbos]

 

[barbos]

Юлия Тимошенко возмутилась заявлением главы немецкой разведки, который заявил, что риски Европы вырастут, если российско-украинский конфликт окончится в течение пяти лет.

Тимошенко назвала его слова сенсационными и первым официальным подтверждением того, «во что нам так не хотелось верить».

«Ценой самого существования Украины и ценой жизней сотен тысяч украинцев кто-то решил заплатить за «обессиление» России ради безопасности в Европе? Не думала, что об этом решатся сказать настолько официально и открыто», — написала политик. По мнению Тимошенко, «это многое объясняет».

Americans contacted Timoshenko earlier.

 

[steve_bank]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

 

[barbos]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

Bullshit.
Nazis are EU "leadership"

 

[barbos]

Case in point, EU are racists and nazis:

 

[DrZoidberg]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

What makes you think Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian population? Everything I have seen is just that her wants to control Ukraine. Not exterminate them

 

[TV and credit cards]

I had a strange thought. Maybe we are wrong and it is Trump who is plying Putin.

That is strange. I've seen not an inkling of evidence nor a shred of substance that would support such thinking. I mean, that really sounds like one of those "it was all part of my master plan" type scenarios. That is all I see out of a President Trump. Basically should anything work as his genius mind expects it would be by happenstance.


In other news, US intel is still shared with other NATO members and the US has put no restraints on their sharing it with Ukraine. Though there was a ISW comment about these NATO members not wanting to run afoul of the current abhorrent US administration. Basically they're all a bunch of quivering labium who don't want to get smacked around by Trump. France has made some arrangement with Ukraine to provide its homegrown intel to Ukraine but it will not completely fill the void of what the US provided. The way I'm reading it, US commercial Maxar satellite intel can provide more up to date intel than other NATO members as a whole. It makes one wonder just what the US has on the noncommercial side of things.

And for those who can't help (like a supermarket tabloid) read a certain Russian's posts, Ukraine is expected to have enough US weapons to expend for awhile. They are expected to run out of Patriot missiles in a matter of weeks and artillery by June.

Edit to add: Ukrainian naval commander announces new strike on Crimean bridge

 

[steve_bank]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

What makes you think Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian population? Everything I have seen is just that her wants to control Ukraine. Not exterminate them

Let me think...


Could it be statements by Putiin and his ministers that Ukraine never existed as a nation, culture, and language therefor Russia has a right to eradicate Ukraine to be replaced by Russian culture.


That is genocide as defined by the UN, we had this discussion way back.

Could it be 3 years of bombardment of non military targets and populations? Hospitals, schools, apartment buddings. Hit and destroyed by person guided missiles and drones.

Putin does not have the population and manufacturing capacity to invade a NATO country like Poland so he is limited, Hitler was not limited when WWII began.

When it comess to Ukraine Russia is doing what the Nazis did, utter brutality

I read a number of books on WWII. During and after the war the Russian army was as brutal as the Nazis had been, Atrocities in Poland. Stalin thought he had an historical claim on Poland and bargained with Hitler for part of Poland. Today Putin justifies the war by saying Ukraine has always been Russia.

I have come to believe that Russian couture does not share much of western moral sensibilities. A basic decency. That is why I wonder what it is like to live in Russian culture.

Some videos got out at the start of the war of Putin ranting and enraged at his subordinates. He is a madman.

 

[TV and credit cards]

And Germany is forming up a new government between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, icing out the AfD.
Some nice comments from Reuters:

Europe to fend for itself against a hostile Russia.
Push a loosening of Germany's borrowing limits through parliament to revive growth in Europe's largest economy and boost military spending.
There is an enormous urgency, especially with regard to the Bundeswehr (military) budget, Merz said.

 

[ZiprHead]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

What makes you think Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian population? Everything I have seen is just that her wants to control Ukraine. Not exterminate them

Let me think...


Could it be statements by Putiin and his ministers that Ukraine never existed as a nation, culture, and language therefor Russia has a right to eradicate Ukraine to be replaced by Russian culture.


That is genocide as defined by the UN, we had this discussion way back.

Could it be 3 years of bombardment of non military targets and populations? Hospitals, schools, apartment buddings. Hit and destroyed by person guided missiles and drones.

Putin does not have the population and manufacturing capacity to invade a NATO country like Poland so he is limited, Hitler was not limited when WWII began.

When it comess to Ukraine Russia is doing what the Nazis did, utter brutality

I read a number of books on WWII. During and after the war the Russian army was as brutal as the Nazis had been, Atrocities in Poland. Stalin thought he had an historical claim on Poland and bargained with Hitler for part of Poland. Today Putin justifies the war by saying Ukraine has always been Russia.

I have come to believe that Russian couture does not share much of western moral sensibilities. A basic decency. That is why I wonder what it is like to live in Russian culture.

Some videos got out at the start of the war of Putin ranting and enraged at his subordinates. He is a madman.

There's also the mass graves of civilians Russian forces leave behind after they are driven out of an area.

  Bucha massacre

 

[Elixir]

What makes you think Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian population?

The obvious fact that PUTIN IS TRYING TO ERADICATE THE UKRANIAN POPULATION.
Targeting schools and hospitals with missiles, his Orcs shooting civilian women and children indiscriminately … the usual genocide shit that dictators like to use when they get the expansionist itch …

I wonder why you are still here @barbos -
Nobody on this board thinks your shit is anything other than shit. If Russia had any kind of image as a civilized country, you would be tarnishing it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Barbos

Hitler
1. Hated the Allies for defeating Germany and the Versailles Treaty.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for German expansion.
4. Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

Putin
1. Blames the west for the fall of the Soviet Union, holds a grudge.
2. Rigid social, political, and media control. Heavy propaganda.
3. Invaded Ukraine intending to eradicate the population for Russian expansion.
4, Harsh suppression of opposition voices.
5. Control of courts and arbitrary detention.
6. Dictatorship.

EU
1. Put aside the old conflicts in favor of mutual secrurity and prosperity.
2. Free press to keep government in check.
3. Personal rights.
4. Protection of individual liberties.
5. Independent judiciary.

So, who are the ‘Nazis’ now Barbos?

What makes you think Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian population? Everything I have seen is just that her wants to control Ukraine. Not exterminate them

Let me think...


Could it be statements by Putiin and his ministers that Ukraine never existed as a nation, culture, and language therefor Russia has a right to eradicate Ukraine to be replaced by Russian culture.

Another possible interpretation is that he equates Ukrainian culture with Russian culture, and that he thinks that the languages aren't different enough to count as different languages.

That's obviously what he means. Your interpretation is to wilfully misinterpret Putin to make him seem worse than he is. There's no need. Putin is already worse than a Bond villain. He doesn't need extra help in that regard

That is genocide as defined by the UN, we had this discussion way back.

That's legal hairsplitting. That's something else

Could it be 3 years of bombardment of non military targets and populations? Hospitals, schools, apartment buddings. Hit and destroyed by person guided missiles and drones.

Or it's a terror campaign designed to terrorise Ukrainians into submission

Putin does not have the population and manufacturing capacity to invade a NATO country like Poland so he is limited, Hitler was not limited when WWII began.

Also not relevant

When it comess to Ukraine Russia is doing what the Nazis did, utter brutality

Yes, they are. But that still doesn't prove genocide

I read a number of books on WWII. During and after the war the Russian army was as brutal as the Nazis had been, Atrocities in Poland. Stalin thought he had an historical claim on Poland and bargained with Hitler for part of Poland. Today Putin justifies the war by saying Ukraine has always been Russia.

Yes, that's exactly what Putin is saying. Perhaps he means what he says?

I have come to believe that Russian couture does not share much of western moral sensibilities. A basic decency. That is why I wonder what it is like to live in Russian culture

For one thing, you'd be Russian. So you would like it. Yes, they have other moral values. They think we've gone soft and are decadent. They're not wrong about that

Some videos got out at the start of the war of Putin ranting and enraged at his subordinates. He is a madman.

I think he wants to be seen as a madman. A man who will stop at nothing. All part of the terror campaign against Ukrain. I think its theatre

 

[Elixir]

Another possible interpretation is that he equates Ukrainian culture with Russian culture, and that he thinks that the languages aren't different enough to count as different languages.

lol! He never started mouthing such crap until AFTER his puppet was ousted in an election. It got real loud only AFTER his little weekend excursion to Kyiv blew up in his face. The guy is a greedy bastard like Trump, not some kind of philanthropist. He’s sending hundreds of thousands of his own citizens, plus thousands of slaves belonging to other dictators, into a meat grinder with orders tonrape pillage and plunder what little remains above ground.
All for the grain, the oil, the ports and the minerals. With those things in hand he can look West and survey his next prospects.

 

[steve_bank]

DR Z

Would you have been part of the appease Hitler crowd?

Hitler threatened war over the issue of the Sudetenland. On 29 – 30 September 1938 the British, Italian, French and German leaders met in Munich to discuss the issue. The Allies agreed to concede the Sudetenland to Germany in exchange for a pledge of peace. This agreement was known as the Munich Pact.

Putin got away with Crimea, nobody wanted to make trouble over an inconsequential territory. Puyin began small incursions into Ukraine and massed troops. It was obvious what was coming. Fearing a larger war Biden appeased. He said repeatedly we have the back of Ukraine, but gave just enough weapons to stall Russia. Europe followed suit.

Biden kept saying Putin's war is an existential threat to democracies yet did little to stop the war.

If Europe along with the USA said cross the border and it will be war I doubt the war would have happened. Combined air power of the western alliance would have made short work of the Russian army.

 

[barbos]

You are talking utter bullshit. And this is after new US administration effectively admitted that Putin had been right all along.

 

[barbos]

Putin got away with Crimea,

It's other way around. Ukrainains got away with Crimea when it along with Sevastopol (which was not part of Ukrainian Socialist Republic at all) was illegally annexed in 1991.
In 1991, they should have changed borders along ethnic and historic lines. I think Western Ukraine should have been separated for sure, the rest is federalized along historic borders with the right to leave Ukraine at any point.

 

[barbos]

Combined air power of the western alliance would have made short work of the Russian army.

You are deluded.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Another possible interpretation is that he equates Ukrainian culture with Russian culture, and that he thinks that the languages aren't different enough to count as different languages.

lol! He never started mouthing such crap until AFTER his puppet was ousted in an election. It got real loud only AFTER his little weekend excursion to Kyiv blew up in his face. The guy is a greedy bastard like Trump, not some kind of philanthropist. He’s sending hundreds of thousands of his own citizens, plus thousands of slaves belonging to other dictators, into a meat grinder with orders tonrape pillage and plunder what little remains above ground.
All for the grain, the oil, the ports and the minerals. With those things in hand he can look West and survey his next prospects.

Sure. This is probably what Putin thinks and why he does what he does. But it isn't what he is saying and isn't why he has support by the Russian people

Keep in mind that the news we get in the West is filtered. Our journalists cherry pick stories to make Putin into an unhinged and greedy lunatic. When in reality he has a clear agenda, has always been consistent and communicates this very well to the Russians via Russian media. Putin's main concern is that he has the support of the Russian people. Which he has. He wouldn't have attacked Ukraine otherwise

Being friends with pro-Putin Russians has helped me understand their perspective. Putin has support from all manner of unlikely people, we'd never (in the west) think could support someone like Putin. I don't count Barbos as a typical pro-Putin Russian. He's just signal boosting alt-right conspiracy theories. The kind of stories planted on western media platforms by Russias (very large and well funded) psychological warfare units.

As I understand it, in most Russians minds the Ukraine war is a civil war, where some Ukrainians have been misled to believe they are a separate nation. And Putin is now acting to unify the nation again. As the rightful ruler of Russia, Putin should also rule Ukraine. Note: This is not my opinion

 

[DrZoidberg]

DR Z

Would you have been part of the appease Hitler crowd?

Hitler threatened war over the issue of the Sudetenland. On 29 – 30 September 1938 the British, Italian, French and German leaders met in Munich to discuss the issue. The Allies agreed to concede the Sudetenland to Germany in exchange for a pledge of peace. This agreement was known as the Munich Pact.

Putin got away with Crimea, nobody wanted to make trouble over an inconsequential territory. Puyin began small incursions into Ukraine and massed troops. It was obvious what was coming. Fearing a larger war Biden appeased. He said repeatedly we have the back of Ukraine, but gave just enough weapons to stall Russia. Europe followed suit.

Biden kept saying Putin's war is an existential threat to democracies yet did little to stop the war.

If Europe along with the USA said cross the border and it will be war I doubt the war would have happened. Combined air power of the western alliance would have made short work of the Russian army.

From day one I have strongly been advocating that the west immediately launch a full scale war against Russia and commit 100% (with boots on the ground) to do whatever it takes to restore Ukraines 2014 borders, and that we shouldn't stop until we're done. My view on this hasn't changed and I have said as much on this forum right from when Russia took Crimea.

We brought this war on ourselves by allowing Russia to take Crimea imho. People like Putin only understand overwhelming force

Europe needs to wake up of our slumber, thinking the war in Ukraine is someone else's problem. Russia is an existential threat to all Europe. Because Europeans have become soft and decadent. If Russia wins in Ukraine they will just keep going imho. I think Trump can go and fuck himself. Together with Putin

To sum up. The best defence is a strong offence, imho. If we want peace we need to prepare for war. Europe is not prepared