How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

I expect this is three birds with one stone. He plans to nuke his own people while using them as bait to a counteroffensive, tactically targeting the assembled material, while both warning protests off, and generating "martyrs". He just has to lie to Russia about who set off the nuke.

The world would balk at nuclear response to a city containing only (or even just mostly) "soldiers".

Ukraine better not be planning on putting all it's eggs in a basket, and not expect the presence of Russians to be a deterrent to the use of nuclear arms.

He just conscripted a bunch of soldiers he WANTS to die.

Wait what? So you think he will draft soldiers, then put them in a city with protests, nuke the city, blame the west, and ... profit somehow? What the hell have you been smoking?

No, I think he will draft soldiers, put them in an occupied Ukranian city with no logistic support, let the city get overrun by Ukranian forces attempting to retake it, and then nuke them all.

This causes everyone who protested his war to fall out of the same window, while simultaneously being able to call them martyrs, and nuking a Ukranian city along with a large portion of Ukranian forces.

That makes only marginally more sense. Why sacrifice a city that you occupy, rather than annex it? How to keep the sacrificial soldiers separate from real soldiers you want to keep alive? What will it do to troop morale elsewhere if a city is allowed to "get overrun" by Ukraine? Who would believe it was Ukraine that nuked the city, because Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons and had its own troops in the city? How to avoid radiation from spreading via wind or rivers to your own territories? How to avoid panic among your own troops? How to not get caught carrying out this massive operation?

Sorry to be blunt, but that's some barbos-level shit that you've concocted.

 

[Jarhyn]

I expect this is three birds with one stone. He plans to nuke his own people while using them as bait to a counteroffensive, tactically targeting the assembled material, while both warning protests off, and generating "martyrs". He just has to lie to Russia about who set off the nuke.

The world would balk at nuclear response to a city containing only (or even just mostly) "soldiers".

Ukraine better not be planning on putting all it's eggs in a basket, and not expect the presence of Russians to be a deterrent to the use of nuclear arms.

He just conscripted a bunch of soldiers he WANTS to die.

Wait what? So you think he will draft soldiers, then put them in a city with protests, nuke the city, blame the west, and ... profit somehow? What the hell have you been smoking?

No, I think he will draft soldiers, put them in an occupied Ukranian city with no logistic support, let the city get overrun by Ukranian forces attempting to retake it, and then nuke them all.

This causes everyone who protested his war to fall out of the same window, while simultaneously being able to call them martyrs, and nuking a Ukranian city along with a large portion of Ukranian forces.

That makes only marginally more sense. Why sacrifice a city that you occupy, rather than annex it? How to keep the sacrificial soldiers separate from real soldiers you want to keep alive? What will it do to troop morale elsewhere if a city is allowed to "get overrun" by Ukraine? Who would believe it was Ukraine that nuked the city, because Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons and had its own troops in the city? How to avoid radiation from spreading via wind or rivers to your own territories? How to avoid panic among your own troops? How to not get caught carrying out this massive operation?

Sorry to be blunt, but that's some barbos-level shit that you've concocted.

There are ways and honestly, it's kind of already too much to be discussing "how to commit war crimes 101" on public forums.

 

[Jayjay]

More footage of this joke "referendum":

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

That makes only marginally more sense. Why sacrifice a city that you occupy, rather than annex it? How to keep the sacrificial soldiers separate from real soldiers you want to keep alive? What will it do to troop morale elsewhere if a city is allowed to "get overrun" by Ukraine? Who would believe it was Ukraine that nuked the city, because Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons and had its own troops in the city? How to avoid radiation from spreading via wind or rivers to your own territories? How to avoid panic among your own troops? How to not get caught carrying out this massive operation?

Sorry to be blunt, but that's some barbos-level shit that you've concocted.

Yes, but it's the argument against nuclear. There will be too much collateral damage and risk. Therefore Pewtin won't go that route. He knows this. But he knows his ass is in the sling if he doesn't do something brilliant. In short, he's fucked.

 

[Jayjay]

That makes only marginally more sense. Why sacrifice a city that you occupy, rather than annex it? How to keep the sacrificial soldiers separate from real soldiers you want to keep alive? What will it do to troop morale elsewhere if a city is allowed to "get overrun" by Ukraine? Who would believe it was Ukraine that nuked the city, because Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons and had its own troops in the city? How to avoid radiation from spreading via wind or rivers to your own territories? How to avoid panic among your own troops? How to not get caught carrying out this massive operation?

Sorry to be blunt, but that's some barbos-level shit that you've concocted.

Yes, but it's the argument against nuclear. There will be too much collateral damage and risk. Therefore Pewtin won't go that route. He knows this. But he knows his ass is in the sling if he doesn't do something brilliant. In short, he's fucked.

I think the mobilization trick will work. It's silly how here we're laughing about the mock referendum and the sorry state of Russian army, but they can win with sheer numbers. The only hope is that either West increases its support to Ukraine by a lot so that Ukraine can keep up, or that Russia dissolves from within, which is very unlikely to happen unless the war drags on for several years, and probably not even then.

Two weeks.

That's how long it takes for Russia to train the first batch*. I think Ukraine will be able to hold on until then and maybe even make some progress, but then it'll halt, because the Russian army will have tens of thousands of people to throw into the fire. Eventually they'll wear down Ukrainian defenses. Fuck this war.

(* = If they're smart, they'll stagger the draftees so that instead of sending everyone to the front with mere two weeks of training, there's another group with four weeks of training, and another with 2 months, so that the first group only has to stop Ukrainian advance and die, and the next groups will get progressively better.)

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

That makes only marginally more sense. Why sacrifice a city that you occupy, rather than annex it? How to keep the sacrificial soldiers separate from real soldiers you want to keep alive? What will it do to troop morale elsewhere if a city is allowed to "get overrun" by Ukraine? Who would believe it was Ukraine that nuked the city, because Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons and had its own troops in the city? How to avoid radiation from spreading via wind or rivers to your own territories? How to avoid panic among your own troops? How to not get caught carrying out this massive operation?

Sorry to be blunt, but that's some barbos-level shit that you've concocted.

Yes, but it's the argument against nuclear. There will be too much collateral damage and risk. Therefore Pewtin won't go that route. He knows this. But he knows his ass is in the sling if he doesn't do something brilliant. In short, he's fucked.

I think the mobilization trick will work. It's silly how here we're laughing about the mock referendum and the sorry state of Russian army, but they can win with sheer numbers. The only hope is that either West increases its support to Ukraine by a lot so that Ukraine can keep up, or that Russia dissolves from within, which is very unlikely to happen unless the war drags on for several years, and probably not even then.

Two weeks.

That's how long it takes for Russia to train the first batch*. I think Ukraine will be able to hold on until then and maybe even make some progress, but then it'll halt, because the Russian army will have tens of thousands of people to throw into the fire. Eventually they'll wear down Ukrainian defenses. Fuck this war.

(* = If they're smart, they'll stagger the draftees so that instead of sending everyone to the front with mere two weeks of training, there's another group with four weeks of training, and another with 2 months, so that the first group only has to stop Ukrainian advance and die, and the next groups will get progressively better.)

It depend how many trainers they have available too.

Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations makes a good point of this possibly being a one shot deal for Russia.

 

[steve_bank]

It comes down to how long the west will supply weapons.

Also from BBC commentary, the call up may be a Putin trial balloon to see how people react.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It comes down to how long the west will supply weapons.

That's the most critical thing. The Ukrainians have proven their metal. We need to prove ours.

 

[Jayjay]

While I don't think anecdotal videos are evidence of overall military impact... they are pretty funny. Like this where draftees decided to get shitfaced before being shipped off:



I'd like to think that the guy who passed out in the grass was forgotten and managed to avoid service.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

US has privately warned Russia of consequences of using a nuclear weapon

We only see and hear what someone allows us to see and hear. Pewtin knows that escalating to nukes gets him nowhere. It is far more certain that such talk is meant to take attention away from his failures and merely be a distraction, a ploy for time. It's also a brag, not a threat.

 

[Jayjay]

I also don't think Putin will use nukes. But even if the probability is low, the consequences are so horrific that we have to always at least consider the possibility.

Despite that, giving in to nuclear blackmail isn't a wise option either. If we give in at first mention of nukes, then Putin will use the same threat over and over again. Him and every other two-bit dictator with a bomb. I think the US is doing exactly the right thing by using diplomatic back channels to convince Russia not to commit suicide.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There is also the question of whether or not they will work. Russians found out the hard way that some of their kit wasn't maintained very well, and in some cases were stripped for parts to be sold by corrupt folks. They also failed to achieve air superiority over a country with a relative handful of older aircraft. If their nuclear arsenal is as poorly maintained as their conventional arsenal, the nuke might land with a thud.

And Russia would have epic egg on it's face if they drop a bomb and it doesn't go off.

 

[lpetrich]

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "️ General Staff: Ukraine liberates Yatskivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine's Armed Forces have established control over the village of Yatskivka in Donetsk Oblast and regained previously lost positions in the Bakhmut direction, General Staff reported on Sept. 23. (pic link)" / Twitter

Yatskivka is about 21 km east of Izyum and 28 km NW of Lyman.

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops of 25th Airborne Brigade moving through the liberated Yatskivka in #Donetsk Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

Not officially confirmed:

Ukraine Front Lines on Twitter: "A contingent of russian units are completely encircled near #Drobysheve, #Donetsk region close to #Kharkiv region - they reportedly have lost connection with the units, sources report
#UkraineFrontLines
#RussiaUkraineWar (pic link)" / Twitter
Drobysheve is about 9 km NW of Lyman, and Lyman is now almost completely surrounded except toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, the Ukrainians are holding Bakhmut against the Russians. It's about 60 km north of Donetsk and 100 km west of Luhansk. Also about 45 km south-southeast of Lyman.

Nothing much is happening near Kherson.

 

[Jayjay]

Nothing much is happening near Kherson.

New York Times reports that Putin's generals wanted to withdraw from Kherson, but Putin overruled them and has apparently doubled down on keeping the city. This is understandable from point of view of Putin's imperialistic political goals: withdrawing from Kherson would mean giving up Odessa and land bridge to Transnistria in the long term. But militarily it's a shit decision. The Russian troops on right bank of Dnipro have limited ability to resupply as long as Ukraine can keep hitting bridges, ferries, and ammunition dumps.

I was kind of hoping that Putin would've seen the light and was going to withdraw, but it seems not. The silver lining is that his meddling means more Russian dead and weaker Russian army elsewhere.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

 

[steve_bank]

Nothing much is happening near Kherson.

New York Times reports that Putin's generals wanted to withdraw from Kherson, but Putin overruled them and has apparently doubled down on keeping the city. This is understandable from point of view of Putin's imperialistic political goals: withdrawing from Kherson would mean giving up Odessa and land bridge to Transnistria in the long term. But militarily it's a shit decision. The Russian troops on right bank of Dnipro have limited ability to resupply as long as Ukraine can keep hitting bridges, ferries, and ammunition dumps.

I was kind of hoping that Putin would've seen the light and was going to withdraw, but it seems not. The silver lining is that his meddling means more Russian dead and weaker Russian army elsewhere.

HeeHee ... echos of Stalingrad. Hitler ordered no withdrawl fight to the last.

The Germns were never able to resupply. Hitler thought it would be a quick canpaign and the Germns were not prepared for winter.

 

[Jayjay]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

Ukraine's resources aren't infinite either. It's a war of attrition in Kherson that at this point either side could win... or at least that way it looks like to my ignorant eyes.

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine's resources aren't infinite either.

True. But thanks to help from "the west", their resources are not a fixed quantity. Not infinite, but not of a fixed limit either.
Depending on circumstance and (hopefully) need, there is a lot of material help that can be brought to bear on a given situation. Russia OTOH has only its existing resources to rely on. There is fixed limit to that, high though it may be.

 

[lpetrich]

Weird cartoon of President Zelenskyy scowling at a smartphone with a Ukraine logo on it.
Fabushka on Twitter: "
Donetsk left the chat
Lugansk left the chat
Zaporozhie left the chat
Kherson left the chat
Odessa is typing
(pic link)" / Twitter

MAKS 22 on Twitter: "In Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Himars are destroying hundreds of orcs right now, beautiful night. (pic link)" / Twitter
Orcs = Russian soldiers

 

[Copernicus]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

It is a rookie mistake for heads of government to assume a role in military strategy and tactics. Lincoln learned this in the first few days of the Civil War, when he ordered a disastrous naval operation. He had the good sense not to repeat that blunder. LBJ used to meet regularly to pick bombing targets in North Vietnam and otherwise meddle in military operations. Hitler's blunder with Stalingrad is legendary, creating the actual turning point in WWII. Basically, he derailed the entire German strategy by diverting to a city that was militarily unimportant but had Stalin's name on it. Putin is now actually giving direct orders to combat units. What an idiot, but it explains a lot about Russia's incompetent performance in this stupidly unnecessary invasion.