How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

 

[steve_bank]

I'd like to see Putin address the UN.

The permanent members of the security council represented a balance of power after WWII.

In the news the Russian pioelne under the Baltic Sea has apparently been sabotage. an explosion is thought to have occured.

If it was sabotage whoever did it must be very stupid. Who knows what Russia may do. Cyber attacks on western infrastructure.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nord-stream-pipeline-damage-1.6597069

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What. The. Fuck?!?

Probably safer than being sent to the war, especially as they seem to be getting little in the way of weapons or training. Effectively, nothing but targets.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The lesson for everyone should be that Pewstain has given himself no choice but to go full Napoleon. The Ruski state has the goods on him and his cronies. The one thing he fears is accountability in the name of democracy. He gives two shits about Nazis and NATO and will push any narrative that keeps him from the gallows. He's going to die unlike a gangster at a shootout but instead in the comfort of his ill gotten gains. The west needs to appeal more to the Russian population and not the official mob running things. This is Pewstain's personal war against accountability and that's the drum we should be hammering incessantly.

 

[SLD]

What Mobilization Means for Russia

The end of Putin’s bargain with the people.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Good article, but possibly behind a paywall if you read too much. In a nutshell, on the one hand mobilizing for the sake of a losing strategy will create more problems for Putin than it solves. It undermines Putin’s ability to govern because it means ordinary Russians can no longer be indifferent to the war. Putin doesn’t rely on support for his power, but indifference. And that means more repression. Historically it was not when Russian leaders are repressive that revolutions happen, but when they loosen their grip on power and forces are unleashed that they can’t control. Stalin was very repressive, but no one dared challenge him. Gorbachev introduced perestroika and the communist government collapsed. Putin understands this and will initiate a wave of repression to stay in power.

But that doesn’t mean he can engineer an acceptable outcome in Ukraine. Ukraine will still not surrender. And they will not be defeated. Thus we are in for a long war, possibly up to five years or more. Putin’s real hope is to hang on for several years and wear down the west’s patience with the war. That’s the point of mobilization. In a bit more than two years, he hopes to have Trump back in the presidency. And maybe more friendly governments in Europe such as Meloni in Italy. Then he can stop US and European aid to Ukraine. He could possibly break up NATO.

 

[Elixir]

Putin’s real hope is to hang on for several years and wear down the west’s patience with the war.

"The West" may well lose patience, but profitability for arms mfrs never grows old.
If Putler is hoping they'll lose interest in making money, he is in for a rude awakening.

 

[barbos]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

On the internet. One of your generals said that. He said it disapprovingly though.
And no, I am not searching for the link.

 

[barbos]

US has privately warned Russia of consequences of using a nuclear weapon

We only see and hear what someone allows us to see and hear. Pewtin knows that escalating to nukes gets him nowhere. It is far more certain that such talk is meant to take attention away from his failures and merely be a distraction, a ploy for time. It's also a brag, not a threat.

Yes, your deranged neocon government privately threatened Russia with nukes.
Putin publicly reminded that Russia has nukes too.

 

[barbos]

But that doesn’t mean he can engineer an acceptable outcome in Ukraine. Ukraine will still not surrender. And they will not be defeated. Thus we are in for a long war, possibly up to five years or more.

EU can not survive for that long.

 

[Copernicus]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

On the internet. One of your generals said that. He said it disapprovingly though.
And no, I am not searching for the link.

Why should he be bothered to actually defend the things he posts? The point is that he has some vague memory of having read it on the internet. Some general said something about Ukrainians fighting to the last man. And it's on the internet somewhere.

 

[barbos]

But that doesn’t mean he can engineer an acceptable outcome in Ukraine. Ukraine will still not surrender.

You are still under false impression that Ukraine NATO is doing well in Ukraine.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I want what barbos is drinking.

 

[Copernicus]

But that doesn’t mean he can engineer an acceptable outcome in Ukraine. Ukraine will still not surrender.

You are still under false impression that Ukraine is doing well.

Russia is doing so well that it has resorted to a mobilization and a line of cars stretching for 10 miles long at the Russia-Georgia border, as people flock to get into Russia to help fight the war. Oh, wait. They are headed in the other direction. If barbos hurries, he can get in line before it gets too much longer.

Satellite images show 10-mile line of cars fleeing Russia​

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

But that doesn’t mean he can engineer an acceptable outcome in Ukraine. Ukraine will still not surrender.

You are still under false impression that Ukraine is doing well.

Russia is doing so well that it has resorted to a mobilization and a line of cars stretching for 10 miles long at the Russia-Georgia border, as people flock to get into Russia to help fight the war. Oh, wait. They are headed in the other direction. If barbos hurries, he can get in line before it gets too much longer.

Satellite images show 10-mile line of cars fleeing Russia​

And I'd bet they're not headed to Lyman to help their comrade invaders.

Ukraine Troops Encircling Russian Forces

Maps detailing Ukrainian advance in the region amid a continued counteroffensive show its forces moving north across the Siverskyi Donets river from areas east and west of town, and east across the Oskil river from positions north of Lyman.

 

[barbos]

I want what barbos is drinking.

The shit you are drinking is way stronger than mine.

 

[Jarhyn]

I want what barbos is drinking.

Flavoraid!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Vladimir Putin's favorite synchronized swimmer, who carried Russia's flag at the London 2012 Olympics, has fled the country with 'no plans to return'. Anastasia Davydova, 39, a five-time gold medalist and the current secretary-general of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC), has shocked the Kremlin by joining thousands heading over the border in the wake of Putin's mobilization order.

Poostain's favorite synchronized swimmer shocks Kremlin by fleeing Russia


Good stuff. I think barbos has her diving into the Black Sea to raise the Moskva.

 

[TV and credit cards]

US State Dept told US citizens in Russia with dual citizenship to get out of Dodge.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Putin has succeeded in mobilising a Russian army on the borders... not to fight, but flee

Poostain has actually mobilized two armies, one to escape and one to go get killed in Ukraine.

They bring what they can which isn't much, dragging their suitcases behind them. Some have dogs and others cat boxes. They are exhausted after a journey that has taken days, but all seem hugely relieved to have left Putin's Russia.

One couple laughed with relief. "Very tired, but happy," said Katy. The relief seemed almost to overwhelm her.

Barbos may be the person running the enlistment booth.

 

[Gun Nut]

James Waterhouse on Twitter: "No need to sit down, but -installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:
- 97% in Kherson region
- 98% in Zaporizhzhia
- 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”
- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”" / Twitter
then
Ryan Grim on Twitter: "Putin missed a clever way to dodge an L. Announce results that show voters rejecting the referendum and then withdraw because you have so much respect for democracy and the will of the people" / Twitter

Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions | Reuters

Russian-installed officials took ballot boxes from house to house in what Ukraine and the West said was an illegitimate, coercive exercise to create a legal pretext for Russia to annex the four regions.

...
The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said the initial counts showed majorities ranging from 96.97% in the Kherson region, based on 14% of votes counted, to 98.19% in Zaporizhzhia, based on 18% of the count.

The majorities in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics were just under 98%, with 14% and 13% respectively of votes tallied.

The scale of the pro-Moscow vote came as no surprise, after voting that Ukraine said was carried out at gunpoint in many cases.

It mirrored a referendum in Crimea after Russia's seizure of the region from Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea's leaders declared a 97% vote to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

Only people with no understanding of what democracy is even for would generate such nonsensical results.

If they faked a 60-40 result, it wouldn't be so bleeding bloody obvious that the whole thing was a sham.

As soon as one side gets better than 90%, anyone with a passing familiarity with democracy will be highly suspicious.

A result of better than 95% in favour of anything flies in the face of what we know about human behaviour. More than 5% of the public would vote against anything; There's at least that many who are too dumb to understand the question, or too dumb to mark the correct box, or who are simply trolls, larrikins, or other kinds of contrarian and would cast a vote against anything that they recognised had overwhelming support.

If you're going to make up fake results, at least make some effort to produce results that aren't completely laughable.

That's what happens when you try to fake something you have no practical experience with, but others have centuries of experience.
Like a child's lie about something mundane that they only just heard of.