How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

You’ve lost thousands of armored vehicles, your flagship, numerous fighter jets and other military aircraft

Yes, according to Ukraine Bob ukrainian army is closing in on Moscow.

Tell me what part of "You are being lied to" you do not understand?
Yes, talking heads are lying to you.

Ukraine is not closing in on Moscow. Russia was closing in on Kiev. But not anymore.

 

[TomC]

Play violent games, win violent prizes.

You mean US/UK meddling in Iran in 60-70s?
or US support of bin ladens while they were freedom fighters?
or maybe central american gangs in LA?

I'm totally with you. We in the USA have a ton of ethical and military horrors in our history.

But that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about what is going on right now between Russia and Ukraine.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Play violent games, win violent prizes.

You mean US/UK meddling in Iran in 60-70s?
or US support of bin ladens while they were freedom fighters?
or maybe central american gangs in LA?

Funny, you seem to be using mistakes and crimes in America's past to justify Russian crimes in the present.

 

[SLD]

seriously, this is the stupidest thing your country has done since Nicky went to war with Japan

No, it's a stupidest thing YOUR country did ever.

Our war with Japan was the stupidest thing we’ve done? I respectfully have to disagree with you there. Turned out ok for us. Not so much for Japan.

The stupidest thing the US did was allow slavery. But we corrected that 160 years ago this month. It will take 160 years for Russia to get over this war. If ever. You’ve lost. You’ll likely descend into anarchy and civil war. I read about the civil war you had after 1917. Not fun.

 

[Patooka]

By the way, I would like to know what Canada, Australia and US think about this great Idea.

This Australian is all for it. I didn't think so at first but after a year of your sociopathic frothing at the mouth bullshit I've changed my mind and come to the conclusion that Russia can't exist in its current state for peace to occur. Seeing as you were the one who changed my mind...congratulations?

Russia did not start this war, the West did, specifically Boris Johnson.

Everyone else is misinformed but you believe Boris Johnson has influence with regards to foreign policy. Yep, that totally checks out the guy who believes in Nazi Zombies thinks that.

 

[Jayjay]

Eu and US don't support aggression against Russia

They totally do. They supported violent nazi coup in Ukraine with one and one only goal - to start proxy war with Russia. The same way 19 Century "EU" supported and then directly participated in crimean war.

Conspiracy theorist nonsense.

You're right though that Russia does seem to be stuck on 19th century thinking. The rest of Europe has moved on.

If Russia withdrew from Ukraine, the war could be over in 24 hours.

If senile Biden calls Elensky and says "Enough already" war would stop in 2 minutes.

The war would not stop even if Biden cut off the supplies. Ukraine is defending its homeland, and they would fight even against all odds. They'd lose eventually, but not immediately. Even Zelensky can't just order the war to stop, because overwhelming number of Ukrainians currently are against surrendering any territory. He's not a dictator like Putin who can just do whatever he pleases.

Russia did not start this war, the West did, specifically Boris Johnson.

That's bullshit and you know it. Just before the war all the major leaders in Europe called Putin and tried to persuade him not to invade.

In other news, that resignation spree in Ukraine I mentioned earlier was linked to corruption problem. There is a youtube which lists all these cases in details but it is in russian (by ukrainian)
Corruption is ridiculous. On one video some ukrainian fat piece of shit "bisinessman" goes through line of soviet era vehicles (from 50s) and refers to them as modern. This kind of chutzpah can only happen in Ukraine.

That's true. Corruption is a huge problem for Ukraine. It was ranked 122nd on Corruption Perceptions Index, out of 180 countries. But Russia is even worse: rank 136.

Even after the war ends, Ukraine and the west will have to deal with the systemic corruption and flawed political system in the country. The small saving grace is that war is like a centrifuge: the most corrupt people will escape and what remains are most stubborn idealists. The fact that people are being fired is a positive sign, though not enough.

There are no claims of responsibility

Actually, that's not entirely true. Clown State of Ukraine claimed responsibility.
I am not making this shit up.

By the way, who was the first man in Space? that's right, Ukrainian.
I am not making this shit up. Ukraine sent their man into space first!
That's ukrainian school history for you.
Another factoid for you, Spaniards (and french) are actually ukrainians, don't argue, they are.
And you know how Kiev thinks about ukrainian language. So any french and spanish here, you better start learning your native language.

Russian propaganda claptrap. Funny how these alleged books, if they even exist, don't seem to be actually used for teaching.

In reality, it's Russia where history is being erased and distorted. Any trace of Ukraine as a country or Ukrainians as people are removed from textbooks and schools are forced to give propaganda lectures about the virtues of imperialism and the righteousness of invading your neighbours.

 

[Jayjay]

Play violent games, win violent prizes.

You mean US/UK meddling in Iran in 60-70s?
or US support of bin ladens while they were freedom fighters?
or maybe central american gangs in LA?

Funny, you seem to be using mistakes and crimes in America's past to justify Russian crimes in the present.

It's never:

"America did wrong, we would never stoop so low!"

but rather:

"America did wrong, we wanna do it too!"

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I hate to tell you this, but we don't need your resources. Your side cut off gas and oil to the Europe.

No, not my side. Your side. Your side sabotaged Nord Stream. Your side put price limits.

Nord Stream wasn't pumping anything when it was bombed.

 

[Jayjay]

seriously, this is the stupidest thing your country has done since Nicky went to war with Japan

No, it's a stupidest thing YOUR country did ever.

Our war with Japan was the stupidest thing we’ve done? I respectfully have to disagree with you there. Turned out ok for us. Not so much for Japan.

Well, I disagree: it turned out ok for Japan as well. After shedding their imperial delusions they've become an industrial and cultural powerhouse. Almost every American has used or owned Japanese technology, and millions are fans of their movies, cartoons, and comic books. People who have no ethnic or historical ties to Japan are learning its language and culture voluntarily.

Japan and (West) Germany are rare examples in history of countries who very thoroughly defeated in war, but managed to adapt and become winners in peacetime. They give hope that maybe someday even Russia could join the civilized world and not only survive, but thrive in it.

 

[Tigers!]

seriously, this is the stupidest thing your country has done since Nicky went to war with Japan

No, it's a stupidest thing YOUR country did ever.

Our war with Japan was the stupidest thing we’ve done? I respectfully have to disagree with you there. Turned out ok for us. Not so much for Japan.

Well, I disagree: it turned out ok for Japan as well. After shedding their imperial delusions they've become an industrial and cultural powerhouse. Almost every American has used or owned Japanese technology, and millions are fans of their movies, cartoons, and comic books. People who have no ethnic or historical ties to Japan are learning its language and culture voluntarily.

Japan and (West) Germany are rare examples in history of countries who very thoroughly defeated in war, but managed to adapt and become winners in peacetime. They give hope that maybe someday even Russia could join the civilized world and not only survive, but thrive in it.

As long we we remember both were occupied by their victors for a time and a new order imposed upon them. Just defeating an enemy without changing the order within the beaten enemy will not lead to long term security.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There are no claims of responsibility

Actually, that's not entirely true. Clown State of Ukraine claimed responsibility.
I am not making this shit up.

By the way, who was the first man in Space? that's right, Ukrainian.
I am not making this shit up. Ukraine sent their man into space first!
That's ukrainian school history for you.
Another factoid for you, Spaniards (and french) are actually ukrainians, don't argue, they are.
And you know how Kiev thinks about ukrainian language. So any french and spanish here, you better start learning your native language.

Yeah, you had the first man in space--because you didn't care if your rocket actually worked.

 

[Jayjay]

Wagner has shown signs of stopping. They’re spent. Ordinary units have taken over around Bakhmut. The Russian attacks are making very small gains, so what if they are? A few kilometers advance isn’t going to break the Ukrainians.

Prigozhin would like Wagner to take credit even though recent advances are probably due to help from VDV and other elite units of the regular army. But this is not a sign that they're stopping. These troops are relatively fresh and well-trained. And I don't see them running out of convicts either.

Bakhmut isn't going to be taken head on, but rather Russia is advancing around the city and cutting off the supply routes. Ukraine will have to very soon make a choice whether to withdraw or risk encirclement.

Only way to avoid it is if by some miracle Ukraine can turn the tables and start pushing Wagner and Russian troops back in the outskirts of Bakhmut. But how could they, if they haven't been able to do it thus far? And new weapon deliveries are probably too far away to make a difference.

But you are correct, the western aide is too slow in coming. That will mean a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian victory. But a stalemate hurts Russia in the long run.

I think Russia can weather a stalemate much longer than Ukraine's western partners. Russia might be weaker economically and militarily, but it's an autocracy that can go full on war-production mode for several years. The west on the other hand is just doing this as a charity project, and democracies are prone to populists taking over and questioning whether foreign wars make sense. You and I might agree that it's imperative that Russia doesn't gain an inch of Ukrainian land even if it takes years to accomplish, but I don't have the same trust in the patience of the general public.

Trump has already started chipping away at Biden's Ukraine policy and these voices will get louder as the 2024 election gets closer.

 

[Copernicus]

Wagner has shown signs of stopping. They’re spent. Ordinary units have taken over around Bakhmut. The Russian attacks are making very small gains, so what if they are? A few kilometers advance isn’t going to break the Ukrainians.

Prigozhin would like Wagner to take credit even though recent advances are probably due to help from VDV and other elite units of the regular army. But this is not a sign that they're stopping. These troops are relatively fresh and well-trained. And I don't see them running out of convicts either.

Bakhmut isn't going to be taken head on, but rather Russia is advancing around the city and cutting off the supply routes. Ukraine will have to very soon make a choice whether to withdraw or risk encirclement.

Only way to avoid it is if by some miracle Ukraine can turn the tables and start pushing Wagner and Russian troops back in the outskirts of Bakhmut. But how could they, if they haven't been able to do it thus far? And new weapon deliveries are probably too far away to make a difference.

But you are correct, the western aide is too slow in coming. That will mean a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian victory. But a stalemate hurts Russia in the long run.

I think Russia can weather a stalemate much longer than Ukraine's western partners. Russia might be weaker economically and militarily, but it's an autocracy that can go full on war-production mode for several years. The west on the other hand is just doing this as a charity project, and democracies are prone to populists taking over and questioning whether foreign wars make sense. You and I might agree that it's imperative that Russia doesn't gain an inch of Ukrainian land even if it takes years to accomplish, but I don't have the same trust in the patience of the general public.

Trump has already started chipping away at Biden's Ukraine policy and these voices will get louder as the 2024 election gets closer.

I think that you underestimate the way things play out politically when so much effort and treasure has been spent to save Ukraine. No politicians are going to want to be seen as the ones who "lost" Ukraine. The US stayed in Vietnam well after everyone knew that we were going to lose. They stayed in Afghanistan longer than any other war, even though people knew for years that it was unwinnable. And the economic capacity of the West is far beyond that available to Russia and its current suppliers. China could be a game changer for Putin, if they were to decide to supply his invasion force, but they seem uninterested in depleting their own military stocks to save his butt. Right now, I think we are committed for the long run.

From the perspective of foreigners, Trump may look like he could make a comeback in the way that the Berlusconi clown did, but his attempted coup seems to have left him with little political clout to be a serious threat in 2024. He can do a lot more damage to the Republican Party, but his diminished stature in the midterms showed that the candidates he backed resulted in a disaster for Republicans, who were expected to take the House by a landslide and who had a better than even chance at taking the Senate. He is a dead candidate walking right now without any serious donors to help him mount another run for the presidency.

 

[Jayjay]

Wagner has shown signs of stopping. They’re spent. Ordinary units have taken over around Bakhmut. The Russian attacks are making very small gains, so what if they are? A few kilometers advance isn’t going to break the Ukrainians.

Prigozhin would like Wagner to take credit even though recent advances are probably due to help from VDV and other elite units of the regular army. But this is not a sign that they're stopping. These troops are relatively fresh and well-trained. And I don't see them running out of convicts either.

Bakhmut isn't going to be taken head on, but rather Russia is advancing around the city and cutting off the supply routes. Ukraine will have to very soon make a choice whether to withdraw or risk encirclement.

Only way to avoid it is if by some miracle Ukraine can turn the tables and start pushing Wagner and Russian troops back in the outskirts of Bakhmut. But how could they, if they haven't been able to do it thus far? And new weapon deliveries are probably too far away to make a difference.

But you are correct, the western aide is too slow in coming. That will mean a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian victory. But a stalemate hurts Russia in the long run.

I think Russia can weather a stalemate much longer than Ukraine's western partners. Russia might be weaker economically and militarily, but it's an autocracy that can go full on war-production mode for several years. The west on the other hand is just doing this as a charity project, and democracies are prone to populists taking over and questioning whether foreign wars make sense. You and I might agree that it's imperative that Russia doesn't gain an inch of Ukrainian land even if it takes years to accomplish, but I don't have the same trust in the patience of the general public.

Trump has already started chipping away at Biden's Ukraine policy and these voices will get louder as the 2024 election gets closer.

I think that you underestimate the way things play out politically when so much effort and treasure has been spent to save Ukraine. No politicians are going to want to be seen as the ones who "lost" Ukraine. The US stayed in Vietnam well after everyone knew that we were going to lose. They stayed in Afghanistan longer than any other war, even though people knew for years that it was unwinnable.

That may be a reasonable prediction based on the past. But it's not a very good argument, because people will ask, "wait, weren't all those wars you mentioned mistakes that we should've left way earlier?"

I'm hoping USA hasn't learned from past wars and will stubbornly stay the course this time too. Because now it's the right thing to do. And don't anyone tell American voters what the sunk costs fallacy is.

 

[Copernicus]

Wagner has shown signs of stopping. They’re spent. Ordinary units have taken over around Bakhmut. The Russian attacks are making very small gains, so what if they are? A few kilometers advance isn’t going to break the Ukrainians.

Prigozhin would like Wagner to take credit even though recent advances are probably due to help from VDV and other elite units of the regular army. But this is not a sign that they're stopping. These troops are relatively fresh and well-trained. And I don't see them running out of convicts either.

Bakhmut isn't going to be taken head on, but rather Russia is advancing around the city and cutting off the supply routes. Ukraine will have to very soon make a choice whether to withdraw or risk encirclement.

Only way to avoid it is if by some miracle Ukraine can turn the tables and start pushing Wagner and Russian troops back in the outskirts of Bakhmut. But how could they, if they haven't been able to do it thus far? And new weapon deliveries are probably too far away to make a difference.

But you are correct, the western aide is too slow in coming. That will mean a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian victory. But a stalemate hurts Russia in the long run.

I think Russia can weather a stalemate much longer than Ukraine's western partners. Russia might be weaker economically and militarily, but it's an autocracy that can go full on war-production mode for several years. The west on the other hand is just doing this as a charity project, and democracies are prone to populists taking over and questioning whether foreign wars make sense. You and I might agree that it's imperative that Russia doesn't gain an inch of Ukrainian land even if it takes years to accomplish, but I don't have the same trust in the patience of the general public.

Trump has already started chipping away at Biden's Ukraine policy and these voices will get louder as the 2024 election gets closer.

I think that you underestimate the way things play out politically when so much effort and treasure has been spent to save Ukraine. No politicians are going to want to be seen as the ones who "lost" Ukraine. The US stayed in Vietnam well after everyone knew that we were going to lose. They stayed in Afghanistan longer than any other war, even though people knew for years that it was unwinnable.

That may be a reasonable prediction based on the past. But it's not a very good argument, because people will ask, "wait, weren't all those wars you mentioned mistakes that we should've left way earlier?"

I recommend that you take a look at Barbara Tuchman's book,  The March of Folly. People can see the future and still ignore it--like we are doing with global warming. Before those wars ended, a lot of people were calling them mistakes that we should have left way earlier or, better yet, stayed out of.

I'm hoping USA hasn't learned from past wars and will stubbornly stay the course this time too. Because now it's the right thing to do. And don't anyone tell American voters what the sunk costs fallacy is.

American voters are no different from Finnish, Ukrainian, or Russian voters. They vote for what they think is in their own interests. When a war is going on, there is a natural tendency to rally around the flag. American voters had plenty of opportunity to vote themselves out of the Vietnam war and end the chaos and protests, not to mention huge loss of life. Nope. Didn't make a difference. They went for the pro-war candidate no matter what. If Navalny would have a real chance to run against Putin, Putin would probably win, even with voters knowing what they know now about him. Generally speaking, Russians don't want to lose wars that they start any more than Americans do.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia outlaws Meduza in attempt to stamp out independent news

Outlet declared ‘undesirable’, with journalists, sources and donors facing threat of prosecution

www.theguardian.com

Russia has declared the news outlet Meduza an “undesirable organisation”, in effect outlawing one of the country’s best-known sources of independent reporting on the Kremlin and war in Ukraine.

Meduza, founded by Russian journalists in Riga, Latvia, in 2014, was declared an undesirable organisation by the general prosecutor’s office on Thursday for “posing a threat to the foundations of the Russian Federation’s constitutional order and national security”.


The ruling is meant to obstruct the outlet’s continued reporting on Russia, by threatening its correspondents, sources and donors with fines or criminal prosecution for continuing to produce journalism from the country.

“An especially serious limitation for journalists who must speak to sources to report the news,” Meduza said in a report on Thursday. Meduza described its work as “in [Russia], our homeland, completely prohibited”. The restrictions are so severe that even sharing links to the outlet’s reporting can be considered a crime.

In a public letter, journalists on the Russian-language outlet vowed to continue working, despite the restrictions.

“We would like to say now that we are not afraid and we do not care about the new status – but this is not so,” the letter read. “We are afraid for our readers. We are afraid for those who have been cooperating with Meduza for many years. We are afraid for our loved ones and friends.

“Nevertheless, we believe in what we are doing. We believe in freedom of speech. We believe in a democratic Russia. The stronger the pressure, the tougher we resist it.”

 

[Jayjay]

American voters are no different from Finnish, Ukrainian, or Russian voters. They vote for what they think is in their own interests.

Didn't mean to imply that American voters are in any way special. Pretty much the same risk of war-weariness hitting in applies to other countries supporting Ukraine as well. When politicians have to weigh whether to spend money on Ukraine vs. their own country, even those who are sympathetic to Ukraine might be inclined to convince themselves (or their voters) that they're already doing enough so that they can have more to give to their own constituents.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Wagner has shown signs of stopping. They’re spent. Ordinary units have taken over around Bakhmut. The Russian attacks are making very small gains, so what if they are? A few kilometers advance isn’t going to break the Ukrainians.

Prigozhin would like Wagner to take credit even though recent advances are probably due to help from VDV and other elite units of the regular army. But this is not a sign that they're stopping. These troops are relatively fresh and well-trained. And I don't see them running out of convicts either.

Bakhmut isn't going to be taken head on, but rather Russia is advancing around the city and cutting off the supply routes. Ukraine will have to very soon make a choice whether to withdraw or risk encirclement.

Only way to avoid it is if by some miracle Ukraine can turn the tables and start pushing Wagner and Russian troops back in the outskirts of Bakhmut. But how could they, if they haven't been able to do it thus far? And new weapon deliveries are probably too far away to make a difference.

But you are correct, the western aide is too slow in coming. That will mean a stalemate instead of a Ukrainian victory. But a stalemate hurts Russia in the long run.

I think Russia can weather a stalemate much longer than Ukraine's western partners. Russia might be weaker economically and militarily, but it's an autocracy that can go full on war-production mode for several years. The west on the other hand is just doing this as a charity project, and democracies are prone to populists taking over and questioning whether foreign wars make sense. You and I might agree that it's imperative that Russia doesn't gain an inch of Ukrainian land even if it takes years to accomplish, but I don't have the same trust in the patience of the general public.

Trump has already started chipping away at Biden's Ukraine policy and these voices will get louder as the 2024 election gets closer.

I think that you underestimate the way things play out politically when so much effort and treasure has been spent to save Ukraine. No politicians are going to want to be seen as the ones who "lost" Ukraine. The US stayed in Vietnam well after everyone knew that we were going to lose. They stayed in Afghanistan longer than any other war, even though people knew for years that it was unwinnable.

That may be a reasonable prediction based on the past. But it's not a very good argument, because people will ask, "wait, weren't all those wars you mentioned mistakes that we should've left way earlier?"

I'm hoping USA hasn't learned from past wars and will stubbornly stay the course this time too. Because now it's the right thing to do. And don't anyone tell American voters what the sunk costs fallacy is.

We are technically reliving generalized European history, where wars were fought to hold back Russian influence for fear of expansion. Or to halt the attempt to expand. One reason the US balked at the Great War was because... [sarcasm]Oh my god... Europe is at war... again... this is so unusual. Maybe we should do something.[/sarcasm] Today, Russia is committing war crimes and completely fucking up with their dumbfuck idiotic /invasion of Ukraine, both the plan and the execution. They have resorted to bombing civilian targets because they suck and can't just overthrow the Ukrainian government. They barely can occupy unoccupied portions of Ukraine!

The West doesn't want Russia to grow any larger than it is... and Ukraine asked for help... and Russia just keeps making it worse, making it harder for the West to step back.

 

[SLD]

Seriously, what has Russia accomplished in this war? It has failed to demilitarize Ukraine,

Russia demilitarized Ukraine long time ago. It's demilitarizing NATO now.

Here’s one for you:

 

[RVonse]

Nuclear war is the ultimate crime against humanity. Due to current technology neither the US nor Russia have the time left to decide whether or not to do pre-emptive strike based on possible satelite incoming. That's even assuming (a big assumption on Biden's part) such a decision to destroy all of life (other than cockroaches and/or other bacteria) can be made in 30 seconds. In any case neither leader has the time to react at all.