How should west respond to potential (likely) U.S. invasion of Venezuela?

[unapologetic]

I have so far never met an American not extremely proud of its democracy and personal freedoms.

It goes without saying, you haven't met Rump, or Karoline Leavitt, or anyone on his cabinet. None of them would put the country before their personal interests. That is the kind of people he surrounds himself with. Repugnants in congress seem to be lacking in civic pride also. Democracy, Democratic, Democrat, are dirty words to them.

If ut can happen to Ghandi, it can happen Trump

I can hope so, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

 

[Tigers!]

This system does, however, depend on the people involved having a sense of honour and of dignity, and being capable of shame.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Will our oil companies take an expensive risk like this? Especially knowing how volatile Trump himself is? And the fact that he's got, at the most, three years left on the scene? He'll be gone long before some huge infrastructure project would happen. Not to mention that each Big Mac could be his last.

Despite political risks, I think the oil market will need Venezuelan oil in the future. US is extracting oil at >10Mbbl/d and that can't last at this rate too much longer. I see US shale declining sharply past 2030 or so. Major Saudi oil fields have been producing for >60 years by now, and it is also questionable how much Saudi Arabia will be able to produce past 2030. While oil demand will certainly decline some due to EVs and other technological advances, we will still need oil. And it will increasingly be difficult oil like Canadian oil sands (Athabasca) , Venezuelan oil sands (Orinoco) and similar that will have to be tapped to meet the demand.

That didn't answer the question. What oil company is going to risk billions on a Donald Trump whim? We are one mid-term election from Venezuela not being a thing without actual honest collaboration with the nation.

And the oil companies say probably what they were saying before this started. 'Are you fucking nuts?!'

Exxon and Shell are "not going to invest single-digit billions of dollars, much less tens of billions of dollars", without physical security, legal certainty and a competitive fiscal framework, Goldwyn said.

"It's not really welcome from an industry point of view," he said. "The conditions are just not right."

It gets a bit more nuts as Trump is asking oil companies to invest $100 billion in to Venezuelan oil.

Trump isn't asking a lot from oil companies over something that they didn't want, he is asking for a gargantuan amount of a lot.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

What do you guys think?

There's flaws in this since all China needs to do is pivot and get new oil rich allies, which they certainly are rich enough to do. But it would be annoying for China

 

[TV and credit cards]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

What do you guys think?

There's flaws in this since all China needs to do is pivot and get new oil rich allies, which they certainly are rich enough to do. But it would be annoying for China

B - Where did you read this? I'm reading Russia and Saudi Arabia with Venezuela not even in the top ten. China invested over $100B in Venezuela for discounted oil but sanctions and corruption kept Venezuela a basket case. Trump may have helped China to save face as it didn't have to walk away from another failed project.
Venezuela's Orinoco oil is actually cheaper to bring to market than Canada's tar sands but it's going to first take a stable government. Chevron never left and can increase production. Exxon's hesitancy is understandable. They've been burned twice already.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

What do you guys think?

There's flaws in this since all China needs to do is pivot and get new oil rich allies, which they certainly are rich enough to do. But it would be annoying for China

B - Where did you read this? I'm reading Russia and Saudi Arabia with Venezuela not even in the top ten. China invested over $100B in Venezuela for discounted oil but sanctions and corruption kept Venezuela a basket case. Trump may have helped China to save face as it didn't have to walk away from another failed project.
Venezuela's Orinoco oil is actually cheaper to bring to market than Canada's tar sands but it's going to first take a stable government. Chevron never left and can increase production. Exxon's hesitancy is understandable. They've been burned twice already.

I heard it on the Internets. The Internet would never lie

 

[bilby]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

What do you guys think?

There's flaws in this since all China needs to do is pivot and get new oil rich allies, which they certainly are rich enough to do. But it would be annoying for China

B - Where did you read this? I'm reading Russia and Saudi Arabia with Venezuela not even in the top ten. China invested over $100B in Venezuela for discounted oil but sanctions and corruption kept Venezuela a basket case. Trump may have helped China to save face as it didn't have to walk away from another failed project.
Venezuela's Orinoco oil is actually cheaper to bring to market than Canada's tar sands but it's going to first take a stable government. Chevron never left and can increase production. Exxon's hesitancy is understandable. They've been burned twice already.

I heard it on the Internets. The Internet would never lie

China was Venezuela's biggest customer, but that in no way implies that Venezuela was in any way a significant supplier for China. China is big. Venezuela is small.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

What do you guys think?

It is such a bad idea, that maybe. We need China. Harming China's industrial capacity would be remarkably short sighted.

But seeing that Trump wants US Oil companies to invest $100 billion in Venezuelan oil... but apparently not listen to them about that being stupid before acting, thinking this is part of a broader "plan" seems unlikely and this is more about someone milqutoasting Monroe Doctrine into his ear.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

 

[crazyfingers]

War Crime

So Trump says we are at war with drug traffickers. So he Hagshit committed a war crime.

The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look like a civilian plane in its first attack on a boat that the Trump administration said was smuggling drugs, killing 11 people last September, according to officials briefed on the matter. The aircraft also carried its munitions inside the fuselage, rather than visibly under its wings, they said.

But the laws of armed conflict forbid combatants from feigning civilian status to fool adversaries into dropping their guard, then attacking and killing them. That is a war crime called “perfidy.”

Retired Maj. Gen. Steven J. Lepper, a former deputy judge advocate general for the United States Air Force, said that if the aircraft had been painted in a way that disguised its military nature and got close enough for the people on the boat to see it — tricking them into failing to realize they should take evasive action or surrender to survive — that was a war crime under armed-conflict standards.

U.S. Attacked Boat With Aircraft That Looked Like a Civilian Plane

Even accepting the Trump administration’s claim that there is an armed conflict with suspected drug runners, the laws of war bar “perfidy.”

www.nytimes.com

 

[lostone]

DJT and his administration admit to no such thing as war crimes or any standard for laws of armed combat. Even Bush and his crew paid little attention to such restrictions on their POV, which is why they opted out of the ICC, Obama made no effort to change that. We have an ongoing history of being a rogue, lawless nation.

 

[barbos]

Here's a theory. China's main oil imports come from Venezuela and Iran. Is controlling Venezuela and Iran about cutting off China from oil?

Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia , Iraq, are the main oil importers for China. Venezuela is not even listed.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

But what a Venezuela run by USA has going for it is how godawful the Maduro regime was. In every way.

I think Trump and USA are super popular by the Venezuelans right now. Its going to be hard to fuck up that goodwill. Granted that Trump can fuck up anything. But once Trump is out and USA has an adult president again, I can't see this turning out badly for USA or Venezuela.

 

[Millrat]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

But what a Venezuela run by USA has going for it is how godawful the Maduro regime was. In every way.

I think Trump and USA are super popular by the Venezuelans right now. Its going to be hard to fuck up that goodwill. Granted that Trump can fuck up anything. But once Trump is out and USA has an adult president again, I can't see this turning out badly for USA or Venezuela.

Trump and co. can barely manage the US government. The next adult president will hopefully undo most of the insanity Trump has created.

 

[barbos]

They're still Americans. I have so far never met an American not extremely proud of its democracy and personal freedoms.

You have not actually lived in US, have you?

 

[Elixir]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

But what a Venezuela run by USA has going for it is how godawful the Maduro regime was. In every way.

I think Trump and USA are super popular by the Venezuelans right now. Its going to be hard to fuck up that goodwill. Granted that Trump can fuck up anything. But once Trump is out and USA has an adult president again, I can't see this turning out badly for USA or Venezuela.

Trump and co. can barely manage the US government. The next adult president will hopefully undo most of the insanity Trump has created.

Trump has successfully hoodwinked people like Dr Z into thinking he’s popular with the Venezuelans, when in fact they hate and fear him.
That kind of sleight of hand (mostly Miller’s genius) is why no foreign power has arranged for his “untimely demise”.
YET.

 

[lostone]

They're still Americans. I have so far never met an American not extremely proud of its democracy and personal freedoms.

You have not actually lived in US, have you?

The Dr might note that there are good reasons for the existence of the ACLU and many other organizations of people who think the degree of freedom we have is very limited and that calling the US a democracy is an exaggeration. At best, we are only a representative republic, and based on voting rights laws in many states, gerrymandering, and a long history of voter repression, it is even questionable how strongly we can honestly claim to be a fully representative republic.

 

[barbos]

They're still Americans. I have so far never met an American not extremely proud of its democracy and personal freedoms.

You have not actually lived in US, have you?

The Dr might note that there are good reasons for the existence of the ACLU and many other organizations of people who think the degree of freedom we have is very limited and that calling the US a democracy is an exaggeration. At best, we are only a representative republic, and based on voting rights laws in many states, gerrymandering, and a long history of voter repression, it is even questionable how strongly we can honestly claim to be a fully representative republic.

He clearly have not met ordinary Americans in their natural habitat which is America.
I have, and can safely say that none of them were "extremely proud". And it is actually true for most people in most countries.
Nobody goes around and feels proud. Most people are pissed off at their governments. At best they think that other countries are worse. Usually it's recent "immigrants" who run around proud of America.
And more educated people in US are pretty cynical about US.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

But what a Venezuela run by USA has going for it is how godawful the Maduro regime was. In every way.

I think Trump and USA are super popular by the Venezuelans right now. Its going to be hard to fuck up that goodwill. Granted that Trump can fuck up anything. But once Trump is out and USA has an adult president again, I can't see this turning out badly for USA or Venezuela.

Maduro was awful. No question about it. And whatshisname, the idiot who nationalized the oil companies was an idiot too.

I don't know if Venezuelans like Trump, but they won't for long if they do. My guess, based on well over a century of U.S. history in South America is that their lives won't change much, which will anger them. They'll be just as poorly off as they were before and it won't take long for factions to recruit the disillusioned, who have nothing to lose because they never had anything in the first place.

To say that you can't see how this goes badly for the U.S. is baffling. It'll be a massive sink for taxpayers, a massive boon to oil companies, their ancillaries, and Americans e.g. military will be wounded and killed. That's not alarmism, it's the predictable norm.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The oil companies will get theirs

I’m not sure oil Companies agree. The oil infrastructure is crap, the oil is heavy, costs a lot to process. Almost none of the existing extraction infrastructure is functional and much of what there was, now represents costs rather than benefits. It supposedly works out on paper if you factor a couple of decades of massive investment, and presumably employing locals at local wage scales and benefiting the actual people not at all… if I was a big oil investor/Company I’m not sure I’d see that as a growth prospect.

It will depend on how much the government is willing to provide in subsidies, but that is a given. IOW, the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it but not reap any benefits.

Trump's blatantly honest comments have said that he did it for the oil. He said that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. Unlike nearly everything else he says, I believe him on those things. He didn't mention humanitarian goals, and I believe he truly doesn't give a damn about that. If there's a next POTUS they'll be saddled with the Venezuelan issue and be blame by Republicans when it goes sideways. Hell, they'll do their best to cause it to fail.

But what a Venezuela run by USA has going for it is how godawful the Maduro regime was. In every way.

I think Trump and USA are super popular by the Venezuelans right now. Its going to be hard to fuck up that goodwill. Granted that Trump can fuck up anything. But once Trump is out and USA has an adult president again, I can't see this turning out badly for USA or Venezuela.

Maduro was awful. No question about it. And whatshisname, the idiot who nationalized the oil companies was an idiot too.

I don't know if Venezuelans like Trump, but they won't for long if they do. My guess, based on well over a century of U.S. history in South America is that their lives won't change much, which will anger them. They'll be just as poorly off as they were before and it won't take long for factions to recruit the disillusioned, who have nothing to lose because they never had anything in the first place.

To say that you can't see how this goes badly for the U.S. is baffling. It'll be a massive sink for taxpayers, a massive boon to oil companies, their ancillaries, and Americans e.g. military will be wounded and killed. That's not alarmism, it's the predictable norm.

The way to fix a broken socialist economy is for the government to stop doing stuff. Since Venezuela already have hit rock bottom, it can't get worse. Establishing rule of law won't be hard. All they need to do is disempower the collectivos. Again, its just to stop doing stuff.

While I think Trump is a catastrophically bad leader, I think he's got this in the bag