How should west respond to Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Bronzeage]

all the while losing Russia's industrial base.

bullshit too. We are acquiring industrial base at accelerated rate, thanks to sanctions we don't have to worry about cheap competition.

I like this one. Your talents are wasted here. You should be a government economist who explains to Putin how everything gets better if you set it on fire.
It must be interesting to be be perpetually living in 1984. If you don't get the reference, it's even funnier.

Only complete dumbass-moron and idiots don't know how sanctions actually made more money for Russia.

You certainly don't know how the sanctions actually made money for Russia, so what does that make you?

I know. You don't.

You can say you know, but we both know you aren't going to explain it. You really should ask your handlers for better material. It's really not fair for them to give this kind of nonsense that just lets you talk yourself into a corner.

Direct all your complains toward western observers. I heard it from them.
The fact is, the news, be it misinformation or not, did circulate in the telegram blogosphere media.
Russian official media does nor really bother much with smaller details such as this.

In other news western media does not like talking is the fact that Russian Navy keeps sinking ships in Black Sea.
there has been a dozen or so ships sunk recently. Surprisingly western media does not really talk about that.
Compare it witt Leipzig incident were some obviosly non-russian drone was found lying near runaway. So much outrage about that and nothing about the fact that Black Sea is a Russian lake now.

If the Black Sea was a Russian Lake, Sevastopol would still be a functioning base and the Moskva wouldn't be at the bottom of it.

This is definitely the problem you have with your handlers. It was bad enough they sent you out to claim sanctions are making life nicer for Russian industry, but then they tell you to brag about the Russian Navy. Did they forget you have to tell this to western obsevers?

 

[barbos]

This is definitely the problem you have with your handlers. It was bad enough they sent you out to claim sanctions are making life nicer for Russian industry, but then they tell you to brag about the Russian Navy.

You should worry about your handlers.

 

[barbos]

Operation Vivaldi no more?

 

[barbos]

 

[ZiprHead]

That's a good thing to happen to Russian propagandists.

 

[Elixir]

Did they forget you have to tell this to western obsevers?

It’s usually worth a chuckle to tune in to babs’ counterfactual fantasies. But in a way I am jealous. He has an easy job. Doesn’t need to be tethered to facts, just issue a continuous stream of Putinist blather, and collect an ill-deserved paycheck.
I hope I’m here the day the check bounces.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The problem is the casualties would be horrific for Russia regardless.

There could be casualties for many, not just for Ukraine and Russia. Who knows?

Yep. The greatest threat to the world today is Russia. It's not Iran, Houtiland, or even China/Taiwan. It's Russia. Therefore, the entire world should be doing something to encourage Russia to return to negotiation table. Ukraine has stated over and over and over that they are open to cease fire and peace talks. Russia is not.

Of course they are not. Russia can't make peace with Ukraine still existing without risking major internal discontent.

Russia can not leave newly acquired regions without major internal discontent.. But we can make peace with the rest just fine. Current terms are out there.
Problem is, Elensky can't agree to them because he would be exectuted by his nazis immediately. So he would rather resign and leave it to somebody else. But there is a problem with that too. He and his entourage wants to continue the war because of the money they earn.

Russia has made it clear they intend genocide. Thus you have put them in a position where the only choices are fight or die.

 

[barbos]

Russia has made it clear they intend genocide. Thus you have put them in a position where the only choices are fight or die.

Azov are free to leave Ukraine. But yeah I think nazis should be genocided.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Of course they are not. Russia can't make peace with Ukraine still existing without risking major internal discontent.

Trump would like Ukaraine to cede the occupied areas to Russia and make peace.

But that would not be peace. Russia would wait a bit then go back for more, same as 2014 -> 2022

Still waiting to see who forms the government in Israel. Of course, India/Israel relations will remain the same. Don't know if hugs will still be around.

Doesn't really matter who forms the government, the same reality exists that Iran wants to genocide Israel.

Probably. And at some point they'll probably throw one. And then Iran will be destroyed.

Don't know who all will be destroyed.

Israel has second strike capability.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It is all hand waving and misdirection for Barbos.

The simple fact remains that Putin thought it would take a few weeks and it is coming up on 5 years

Like Trump and Iran, Putin thought with little effort he would be basking in the glory of conquest admired by the people.

I get it!

Putin thinks he's God. "6,000 years" was 14 billion years.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Trump would like Ukaraine to cede the occupied areas to Russia and make peace.

Does not matter what he wants/says, what matters what he, or rather his government, does.
His government needs to stop providing inteligence to Ukraine. Then cut StarLink access to Ukraine
And then we will talk.

Putin is too accommodating toward US. I understand he thinks about life after war. But it was a mistake not to observe multiple red lines US and EU has crossed.

Putin is not going to have a life after the war, which assumes he's actually alive. He will be spending all his time in hiding, protected by people he can't trust.

I meant Russia US relations after the war, not his life. Putin will be fine in Russia. Elensky, on the other hand, will be dead in a few years, assassinated in Israel by Ukranians.

No one takes Putin's red lines seriously. He too is scared provoke NATO article 5. It would take about 48 hours to reduce what's left of the Russian military to ashes. It might be 10 hours, depending on what Ukraine has left standing. Once the first missiles hit, Putin will be dead(one shot in the back of his head) and some Russian General will be on the phone saying, "Look, can we talk about this?" It might be a Colonel if there's no Generals left alive. Zelensky will die an old man in his house in Yalta.

I doubt it would be over in 10.

I don't think there's anyone in the west insane enough to use anything ballistic in such a situation. Which means the initial strike is Tomahawks and they're not just sitting there on station ready to launch. We have 4 SSGNs, which means there might be one on station somewhere off the coast of Russia. That's probably 154 birds and I doubt that's enough to end the war.

 

[bilby]

In other news western media does not like talking is the fact that Russian Navy keeps sinking ships in Black Sea.

Navy?

there has been a dozen or so ships sunk recently.

Indeed. Cargo ships. Sunk by drones, launched and controlled from land. Maybe by the Navy - I presume they have to do something with their time, now that they have no ships to sail about in.

It's not being ignored by the media. It's just that "Russian military attacks defenceless civilians" isn't unusual enough to make the front page headlines.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin invaded Ukraine with an army that was suffering form decades of poor maintenance. Maintenance of military equipment is expensive and it's the first thing to suffer in system that operates on corruption and self enrichment. The problem is, unless you actually get into a war, no one will ever know if you kept your tanks and trucks in working order. It's easy to rationalize letting it slip by. After all, you've got all this diesel just so you can start all the engines and drive around for a couple miles, or you could sell it to a guy who owns a trucking company. If the tanks and trucks are never needed, no harm, no foul. When this rationale is extended to it's logical conclusion, there's no reason to think an intercontinental ballistic missile would be treated any better, because it's a lot more likely someone calls up one day and says bring the truck, than it's time to shoot the missiles.

And that's why the military has elephant walks.

Your whole air wing dashes down the runway, in something of formation. It's too fast for any sort of tow, but it's below flight speed. It's both a way for command to know that the equipment at least approximately works, and it's a clear indication to anybody watching that the equipment works.

 

[bilby]

And that's why the military has elephant walks.

For ballistic missiles?

The Russian nuclear deterrent depends entirely on ICBMs and submarine launched nukes. The ICBMs sit in silos, hidden, doing nothing to attract attention. They don't need to be in working order, as long as you slip the inspector a crate of vodka.

The submarines do at least need to work, but the missiles they are carrying are (pun intended) in the same boat.

The rest of the Russian nuclear arsenal is carried by aircraft, which might be able to get to Eastern Europe before being shot down, but won't get any further than that.

And none of this - including USAF "elephant walks" requires or demonstrates working warheads. The various test-ban treaties provide carte blanche to a corrupt military to allow warheads to deteriorate and spend the funds allocated to maintaining them on vodka and hookers.

Nuclear weapons are complex, and expensive to maintain, and if they don't work when the order arrives to use them, there's a good chance that nobody will be around to ask why not.

 

[Elixir]

The submarines do at least need to work, but the missiles they are carrying are (pun intended) in the same boat.

Their submarines work. They are more sub-marine than anyone else’s. Some have stayed submerged for decades.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia has made it clear they intend genocide. Thus you have put them in a position where the only choices are fight or die.

Azov are free to leave Ukraine. But yeah I think nazis should be genocided.

Nazis invade other nations and commit genocide. You guys are the Nazis.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh, hang on. Got that the wrong way around, sorry. What military historians always say is that what Russia lacks in quality, logistics, training, strategy, and tactics, she makes up in sheer numbers.

"Quantity has a quality all of its own", a quote often misattributed to Stalin, largely because his country and his army sure as shit didn't have much else going for it.

And note there's a lot of truth to this if things are at least somewhat functional. Observe the current drone warfare. Lots of drones for the price of one missile.

In WWII we flattened the cities because the bombers were not accurate enough to reliably hit the factories, and in Japan manufacturing was so dispersed that targeting it was hopeless, we were just burning down the cities.

Weapon systems got bigger, guidance systems got good. There was a period where guided weapons could take down the stuff that mattered while pretty much sparing the country. But with drones we are back to the targets being too small. We can to a fair degree avoid killing the population but if the enemy doesn't respect Geneva it's back to siege warfare or flattening the place. But people still expect the low casualties of the pre-drone era.