How would a new civil war play out?

[SLD]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

As such, I really wonder if we’re heading towards real political violence in this country as his supporters, especially the gun nuts try to take the law into their own hands. How might that play out? Quickly over with minimal force used? Or do you think Trump will even condone the violence and encourage it, and as a result it spirals out of control? What then? The divide is not geographical this time. Georgia barely went for Biden as did California and New York. Idaho and Alabama went for Trump. Both Maine and Nebraska split their vote.

How would the military react? I suspect that if Biden were declared the legal winner by the courts, the Chiefs would fall in line behind him and that would likely end it, at least as a major threat.

The flip side is also possible. What if Trump succeeds in persuading the Supreme Court to throw out all absentee ballots? After all they’re all fraudulent. Didn’t you know? Or Barr had DoJ “investigate” the fraudulent votes? Democrats in DC would seriously riot. As well as throughout the country. Trump would declare the rioters as terrorists and call on the troops to put them down. The military chiefs would likely back the court decision. They’d have no choice. But would the troops obey and open fire on American citizens?

And then what happens? A descent into chaos?

Perhaps a really awful scenario is a Biden assassination by some Trump nut. Trump uses that excuse to declare a national emergency and installs martial law, a move backed the Supreme Court he has stacked.

These are worst case scenarios obviously, but they aren’t far fetched. But how exactly might it play out?

SLD

 

[cycomiko]

I think that most of the conservatives that held their nose and voted for Trump would reject the violence. The crazies that decided to go through with some sort of assault might find out that a lot of us weak, crybaby, libruls are also armed and know how to fight back.

I think the military would probably be split and majority of the brass would not authorize any offensive actions.

 

[prideandfall]

But how exactly might it play out?

SLD

large scale violence of the type you're suggesting requires 2 things:
1. that one ideological group has the tools at their disposal to engage in ongoing violence and the will to stick with it.
2. that another ideological group in opposition to the first one has the tools at their disposal to engage in ongoing violence and the will to stick with it.

while 1. might be true to some limited extent in the US, 2. most certainly is not.
if there's one thing that the culture in the US absolutely hates more than anything, it's someone who stands up to a bully or someone who says 'enough is enough' and takes a stand to push back against oppression.
if authoritarian rabble enact violence to try to push their ideological views, the reaction of the rest of the country will be to flinch away from them (at best) and possibly placate them (at worst) while waiting for them to tire themselves out and generally finding any and every possible excuse to justify their behavior or marginalize it as some fringe case that shouldn't be paid attention to.

any sort of confrontational push-back against authoritarian violence would be immediately decried as extreme left terrorism and proclaimed "the real problem" (this isn't speculation, see ANTIFA) and there would be zero support for any such response.
so, a civil war won't happen because a civil war requires 2 sides fighting each other.
the worst you can expect in the US is one side attacking the other for a little bit until all the people on the attacking side with the chromosomal damage required to think political violence over election results is a good idea have tired themselves out.

 

[Jarhyn]

But how exactly might it play out?

SLD

large scale violence of the type you're suggesting requires 2 things:
1. that one ideological group has the tools at their disposal to engage in ongoing violence and the will to stick with it.
2. that another ideological group in opposition to the first one has the tools at their disposal to engage in ongoing violence and the will to stick with it.

while 1. might be true to some limited extent in the US, 2. most certainly is not.
if there's one thing that the culture in the US absolutely hates more than anything, it's someone who stands up to a bully or someone who says 'enough is enough' and takes a stand to push back against oppression.
if authoritarian rabble enact violence to try to push their ideological views, the reaction of the rest of the country will be to flinch away from them (at best) and possibly placate them (at worst) while waiting for them to tire themselves out and generally finding any and every possible excuse to justify their behavior or marginalize it as some fringe case that shouldn't be paid attention to.

any sort of confrontational push-back against authoritarian violence would be immediately decried as extreme left terrorism and proclaimed "the real problem" (this isn't speculation, see ANTIFA) and there would be zero support for any such response.
so, a civil war won't happen because a civil war requires 2 sides fighting each other.
the worst you can expect in the US is one side attacking the other for a little bit until all the people on the attacking side with the chromosomal damage required to think political violence over election results is a good idea have tired themselves out.

HA! I repeat myself from another thread: shovel some more of that bullshit, person who shoveled so much shit!

The soldiers on this forum, and the sailers, and the airmen... I border on outright pacifism but that doesn't mean I won't fight with all that I am against some fascist fucks.

You are assuming a lot to think that liberals will roll over in any capacity. We are just generally quieter about it because rather than being internet tough guys full of bluster and wind, we tend to view our capability to violence with shame and mourning over what it has, will continue to do to us, not as a badge of honor but as a pockmark of darkness on our souls to be hidden away for the moment that it becomes absolutely necessary.

IOW, we just don't talk about it much, but that doesn't mean it's not there but rather that when we think about it, it's in a deeper capacity with a wider understanding of the consequences to ourselves and others for such violent actions.

Make no mistake, I had the conversation with my husband all the way back in March about what it would mean for me if the nation descends into civil war. I was crying about not wanting to be in another war but also the fact that if there was another war, a war against an authoritarian coup, I would be fighting nonetheless; the discussion was about whether he would be sticking around and fighting alongside me or whether he would seek safe harbor somewhere away from the violence.

Keith, where you at? Have you had any of these conversations yet? Any other servicemembers or liberals have any of these discussions already? I can't imagine I'm the only one.

 

[prideandfall]

You are assuming a lot to think that liberals will roll over in any capacity. We are just generally quieter about it because rather than being internet tough guys full of bluster and wind, we tend to view our capability to violence with shame and mourning over what it has, will continue to do to us, not as a badge of honor but as a pockmark of darkness on our souls to be hidden away for the moment that it becomes absolutely necessary.

da absolute fuck are you talking about?
that... isn't even remotely a response to what i actually said.

also:
neither you nor anyone else who seems to think they are rambo are in fact rambo.
your personal willingness to engage in violence is about as relevant to this issue as my employment is relevant to the issue of unemployment in the US.

 

[Politesse]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

As such, I really wonder if we’re heading towards real political violence in this country as his supporters, especially the gun nuts try to take the law into their own hands. How might that play out? Quickly over with minimal force used? Or do you think Trump will even condone the violence and encourage it, and as a result it spirals out of control? What then? The divide is not geographical this time. Georgia barely went for Biden as did California and New York. Idaho and Alabama went for Trump. Both Maine and Nebraska split their vote.

How would the military react? I suspect that if Biden were declared the legal winner by the courts, the Chiefs would fall in line behind him and that would likely end it, at least as a major threat.

The flip side is also possible. What if Trump succeeds in persuading the Supreme Court to throw out all absentee ballots? After all they’re all fraudulent. Didn’t you know? Or Barr had DoJ “investigate” the fraudulent votes? Democrats in DC would seriously riot. As well as throughout the country. Trump would declare the rioters as terrorists and call on the troops to put them down. The military chiefs would likely back the court decision. They’d have no choice. But would the troops obey and open fire on American citizens?

And then what happens? A descent into chaos?

Perhaps a really awful scenario is a Biden assassination by some Trump nut. Trump uses that excuse to declare a national emergency and installs martial law, a move backed the Supreme Court he has stacked.

These are worst case scenarios obviously, but they aren’t far fetched. But how exactly might it play out?

SLD

Trump's followers are all, like, obese 70 year olds. The war will be swift.

On a more realistic note, wars are funded by the wealthy, and the wealthy have no reason to want a civil war in this case, so there won't be one.

 

[Jarhyn]

You are assuming a lot to think that liberals will roll over in any capacity. We are just generally quieter about it because rather than being internet tough guys full of bluster and wind, we tend to view our capability to violence with shame and mourning over what it has, will continue to do to us, not as a badge of honor but as a pockmark of darkness on our souls to be hidden away for the moment that it becomes absolutely necessary.

da absolute fuck are you talking about?
that... isn't even remotely a response to what i actually said.

also:
neither you nor anyone else who seems to think they are rambo are in fact rambo.
your personal willingness to engage in violence is about as relevant to this issue as my employment is relevant to the issue of unemployment in the US.

I'm not rambo. Most actual soldiers realize this. But they also generally recognize what they are capable of and who they are. These butterball militiamen are dangerous, but they aren't a disciplined, principles fighting force.

My point is that when you look at the alt-right, you see all their is. They are loud and are trying to be as visible and threatening as possible. When you look at the liberal left, all you see is a tiny little tip of what will exists to maintain our democracy, mostly because we look at the need for violence with disappointment rather than glee.

 

[marc]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

 

[Politesse]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

That's not a civil war, that's been business as normal for the past eight years.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

As such, I really wonder if we’re heading towards real political violence in this country as his supporters, especially the gun nuts try to take the law into their own hands. How might that play out?

Well, because it wouldn't be based on territory because Reds and Blues inhabit the same land, it be based on murdering the other party so there is no opposition. Of course, it gets complicated as you need the military.

A conventional Civil War isn't quite possible.

 

[Politesse]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

As such, I really wonder if we’re heading towards real political violence in this country as his supporters, especially the gun nuts try to take the law into their own hands. How might that play out?

Well, because it wouldn't be based on territory because Reds and Blues inhabit the same land, it be based on murdering the other party so there is no opposition. Of course, it gets complicated as you need the military.

A conventional Civil War isn't quite possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas

I agree with your basic point though. I don't think there's any such thing as a conventional war anymoire, technology and population have made things strange and unpredictable.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

As such, I really wonder if we’re heading towards real political violence in this country as his supporters, especially the gun nuts try to take the law into their own hands. How might that play out?

Well, because it wouldn't be based on territory because Reds and Blues inhabit the same land, it be based on murdering the other party so there is no opposition. Of course, it gets complicated as you need the military.

A conventional Civil War isn't quite possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas

I agree with your basic point though. I don't think there's any such thing as a conventional war anymoire, technology and population have made things strange and unpredictable.

You do bring up a good point. Just post a bunch of Tweets about Antifa showing up in a bunch of different areas, get the idiots to mobilize, we drop a massive anvil from above on them. It'd need to be coordinated though. They'd probably catch on after the tenth or eleventh time.

 

[ideologyhunter]

How would it play out? It would stream on Netflix.
Trump ..........Louie Anderson
Pence.............Anderson Cooper
Biden.............Ted Danson
Harris.............Herself
Ivanka............Christina Aguilara
Jared.............Chris Kattan
Nutty Militia Warlord....Bruce Willis
Militia Demolition Expert.....Adam Sandler
Militia Medic/Sex Worker...Lindsay Lohan
Hunter Biden.....Pete Davidson

 

[marc]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

That's not a civil war, that's been business as normal for the past eight years.

Yea, but it would be bigger groups, and several attacks at once instead of one every couple of months

 

[Politesse]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

That's not a civil war, that's been business as normal for the past eight years.

Yea, but it would be bigger groups, and several attacks at once instead of one every couple of months

Well, it'll be a few more terrorists dead or in prison every time they try, I can't imagine such activities truly becoming popular in our largely apathetic nation.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well it’s pretty clear that Biden has barely won the election. But Trump won’t concede. He and his supporters are claiming it was all due to massive fraud. I mean who wouldn’t vote for someone as wonderful as Trump?

Well, he's right. It's due to a massive fraud all right--specifically, the one currently in the Oval Office. Enough people weren't willing to vote for a massive fraud that he lost.

The flip side is also possible. What if Trump succeeds in persuading the Supreme Court to throw out all absentee ballots? After all they’re all fraudulent. Didn’t you know? Or Barr had DoJ “investigate” the fraudulent votes? Democrats in DC would seriously riot. As well as throughout the country. Trump would declare the rioters as terrorists and call on the troops to put them down. The military chiefs would likely back the court decision. They’d have no choice. But would the troops obey and open fire on American citizens?

And then what happens? A descent into chaos?

Perhaps a really awful scenario is a Biden assassination by some Trump nut. Trump uses that excuse to declare a national emergency and installs martial law, a move backed the Supreme Court he has stacked.

These are worst case scenarios obviously, but they aren’t far fetched. But how exactly might it play out?

SLD

Yeah, the Secret Service has it's work cut out for the next 4 years since His Flatulence called for Biden's assassination. There will be a lot of loonies who will consider listening to that call.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

That's not a civil war, that's been business as normal for the past eight years.

I agree with marc's estimate of what they'll do. If there's enough of it that's basically a civil war.

 

[SLD]

Well for one thing the military won’t be involved. What would happen is a number of random attacks, more akin to terrorist strikes than to an actual war. These would be things like the takeover of the Oregon wildlife refuge building, attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?) and attempting to take democrat politicians prisoners for ‘trial’. These would mostly be handled by police and federal agencies. If especially bad in some areas they might call the national guard. But I don’t think they would have the numbers to be considered an army. And they would not have major protests going on draw attention while they attack and use the protesters to take the blame, like they do with big BLM protests.

That's not a civil war, that's been business as normal for the past eight years.

I agree with marc's estimate of what they'll do. If there's enough of it that's basically a civil war.

Well, Marc’s comment was prescient in many ways. I knew the military would tell Trump to fuck off. But I feared that the resignation of Esper presaged some strange attempt to coerce them into line. In truth it was the opposite. It was to sideline them. I forgot my Roman history for a second. Rome could often be ruled by the mob. And I just didn’t, up until the day before this went down, see it coming. I didn’t think Trump would truly cross the Rubicon into open and blatant violent insurrection.

I don’t think this is over. The fascist republicans are calling for reconciliation and reflection by which they mean to sweep what happened under the rug where it can fester some more while they regroup. I hope that the Biden Administration will see that not just those who broke into the capitol are prosecuted, but the instigators, and that includes, of course, the man at the top. It also includes Giuliani (trial by combat), Mo Brooks (kick ass and take names), and many others who egged the crowd on. And also those who knew about this beforehand and in conjunction with the president ensured that the there were not adequate forces to protect the Capitol.

But I fear that the fascists tears of pity will be overwhelming.

 

[Jarhyn]

I agree with marc's estimate of what they'll do. If there's enough of it that's basically a civil war.

Well, Marc’s comment was prescient in many ways. I knew the military would tell Trump to fuck off. But I feared that the resignation of Esper presaged some strange attempt to coerce them into line. In truth it was the opposite. It was to sideline them. I forgot my Roman history for a second. Rome could often be ruled by the mob. And I just didn’t, up until the day before this went down, see it coming. I didn’t think Trump would truly cross the Rubicon into open and blatant violent insurrection.

I don’t think this is over. The fascist republicans are calling for reconciliation and reflection by which they mean to sweep what happened under the rug where it can fester some more while they regroup. I hope that the Biden Administration will see that not just those who broke into the capitol are prosecuted, but the instigators, and that includes, of course, the man at the top. It also includes Giuliani (trial by combat), Mo Brooks (kick ass and take names), and many others who egged the crowd on. And also those who knew about this beforehand and in conjunction with the president ensured that the there were not adequate forces to protect the Capitol.

But I fear that the fascists tears of pity will be overwhelming.

What I want to see is those who coordinated and premeditated the attack brought to justice.

Congress is built to be a maze, wherein if you don't already know where you are going, you will never find it. None of the doors are generally marked. There is no systemic organizational pattern. There is no map.

The fact that the attackers managed to selectively locate only the offices of democrats, the fact that the protestors managed to find the offices of specific democrats, pressages premeditation.

 

[Swammerdami]

Barbara Walter is a Professor who serves on a CIA task force assessing the likelihood a country will fall into civil war. They're not allowed to study the U.S.A. but if they did, Prof. Walter would put it in the civil-war likely group.

People have a false impression that it is the most down-trodden, the poorest, the most discriminated against who tend to start civil wars. In reality, that’s not true. The people who tend to start civil wars are what experts call ‘sons of the soil.’ These are citizens who had either been dominant politically and culturally but were now in decline, or who had once had power and had lost it. This group believes that the country belongs to them, that they have the right to be in power, and when they lose it, they find it incredibly disconcerting. They’re very resentful of groups that are ascendant, and they’re the ones who tend to mobilize and fight to try and re-establish control.

She has a new book coming out.