Obama was a major contender that people wanted to vote for, so not only did the regulars come out and vote, the lazies did too, explaining the "good margin." How many minority's voted?
Trump was a major contender that people wanted to vote for, so not only did the regulars come out and vote, the jaded did too, explaining the "huge margin." How many minority's voted?
You speak of "5000 fewer." Explain the difference in the two numbers above!
Actually, I'm asking you to explain them. You are the one blaming the lazies.
2012
About 102,000 voted
Obama/Biden 61672 60.48%
Romney/Ryan 38279 37.54%
2016
About 96,000 voted
Trump/Pence 48,152 51.2%
Clinton/White Bread 42,130 44.8%
Trump up'd 10k, Clinton down 19k.
This is where Trump won.
There's insufficient data to demonstrate my position, but then again, the data doesn't show I'm in error either, but I'll take what you've given here and see what pretzel shape I can twist it into--using reason that you should readily discern from my presentation.
Let's first turn our attention to obama with his 62,000 votes. That's HUGE! It's certainly higher than every other figure you presented, but why is it so high? Why the crazy turnout? He wasn't just another candidate. There were many people that were moved by the things he said. It makes sense to me that he got a lot of votes, but what doesn't readily jump out at us is from where they all came.
Some were probably die hard Democrats just as there are some die hard Republicans. Some that might sometimes have voted Republican voted Democrat. There were new voters in the mix. But, that's the case in any election. I think his following, however, was not run of the mill typical, and I think the disparity in numbers (his vote count divergence from the norm-or average) was intensified by those who were passionately in his favor.
To compare apples to apples, as they say, there a few ways to do that. Let's now look the following democratic turnout. All things being equal, you might expect a small increase, but instead we see 42,000. That is a hell of a drop, but it's partly explainable. The great contender in that election was Trump, and he was apart of the Republican Party. This doesn't mean all those 20,000 Democrats (the difference) voted republican. No no no. Some, yes, but the same issues discussed earlier hold true here as well. People came out the woodwork to vote for Trump, just as people came out for obama--some of which who could have but rarely voted--hence, not all new voters.
The numbers aren't highlighted, so it's difficult to discern the regulars from the irregulars, but let's look at something else: the spreads: don't look at any one spread in isolation but collectively. The underdogs, the contenders, the parties, and the totals. Also, the anomalies. Where were all the irregulars that voted for obama in 2012 come the 2016 election? Had a fraction of those came out and simply voted instead of thinking "we got this sowed up," things would be most certainly different in the political arena right now.
Even when we do a baseline and compare numbers, we can plainly see that the people are missing from the ballots.
((100-(60.48+37.54))*102000)/2
Gotta run
