Politics Is it time for the west to assemble an army and kick Putin out of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

As for lies, I find it funny that Russian MOD regularly just flat out makes up stuff. Like a few days ago when they said they had destroyed an American HIMARS launcher.

Images from the ground show the remains of the "HIMARS":

(And as usual, there were civilian casualties only. No sign of any military targets.)

Lies? How about Russia was crushing Ukraine and this whole thing was over several months ago.

It appears from the aggregate that Russia is advancing, slowly, but surely... but definitely slowly and are randomly bombing the nation of Ukraine to attempt to weaken resolve.

Resolve that allegedly didn't exist.

I think the situation is even worse than that.

Russia is now in an "operational pause" caused by their enormous losses after battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, as well as Ukraine being able to disrupt their logistics by blowing up ammo depots deep behind the front lines. And even now, Ukraine is just barely holding ground and not making any advances.

Time in not on Ukraine's side. If they can't attack now, when Russia is at its weakest, its prospects for later are pretty bleak?

 

[Harry Bosch]

As for lies, I find it funny that Russian MOD regularly just flat out makes up stuff. Like a few days ago when they said they had destroyed an American HIMARS launcher.

Images from the ground show the remains of the "HIMARS":

(And as usual, there were civilian casualties only. No sign of any military targets.)

Lies? How about Russia was crushing Ukraine and this whole thing was over several months ago.

It appears from the aggregate that Russia is advancing, slowly, but surely... but definitely slowly and are randomly bombing the nation of Ukraine to attempt to weaken resolve.

Resolve that allegedly didn't exist.

I think the situation is even worse than that.

Russia is now in an "operational pause" caused by their enormous losses after battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, as well as Ukraine being able to disrupt their logistics by blowing up ammo depots deep behind the front lines. And even now, Ukraine is just barely holding ground and not making any advances.

Time in not on Ukraine's side. If they can't attack now, when Russia is at its weakest, its prospects for later are pretty bleak?

I don't disagree with you Jay. However, some good news:

Gas crisis spurs Germany to mull extending life of nuclear plants

Germany may extend the life of its three remaining nuclear power plants, the economy ministry said on Monday, as public support rises in the face of a possible cut-off of Russian gas.

www.reuters.com

At the end of the day, Russian isn't going to stop their invasion until it starts affecting the economy. They don't give a shit about the rural boys dying in the military (last estimate is that 50,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine). Their economy is doing find because Europe (Germany) is addicted to their gas. Well, it appears that sentiment is starting to change in Germany. It would be a huge military victory if Germany could get back on nuclear power and tell Russian gas producers to fuck off.

 

[DrZoidberg]

As for lies, I find it funny that Russian MOD regularly just flat out makes up stuff. Like a few days ago when they said they had destroyed an American HIMARS launcher.

Images from the ground show the remains of the "HIMARS":

(And as usual, there were civilian casualties only. No sign of any military targets.)

Lies? How about Russia was crushing Ukraine and this whole thing was over several months ago.

It appears from the aggregate that Russia is advancing, slowly, but surely... but definitely slowly and are randomly bombing the nation of Ukraine to attempt to weaken resolve.

Resolve that allegedly didn't exist.

I think the situation is even worse than that.

Russia is now in an "operational pause" caused by their enormous losses after battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, as well as Ukraine being able to disrupt their logistics by blowing up ammo depots deep behind the front lines. And even now, Ukraine is just barely holding ground and not making any advances.

Time in not on Ukraine's side. If they can't attack now, when Russia is at its weakest, its prospects for later are pretty bleak?

I don't disagree with you Jay. However, some good news:

Gas crisis spurs Germany to mull extending life of nuclear plants

Germany may extend the life of its three remaining nuclear power plants, the economy ministry said on Monday, as public support rises in the face of a possible cut-off of Russian gas.

www.reuters.com

At the end of the day, Russian isn't going to stop their invasion until it starts affecting the economy. They don't give a shit about the rural boys dying in the military (last estimate is that 50,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine). Their economy is doing find because Europe (Germany) is addicted to their gas. Well, it appears that sentiment is starting to change in Germany. It would be a huge military victory if Germany could get back on nuclear power and tell Russian gas producers to fuck off.

I don't think Putin even cares about that. Putin's power and personal wealth comes from his control over oil and gas. He'll always be able to sell that abroad.

As long as he can make Russians believe that the west is to blame for their suffering and their poverty, this war might even strengthen his standing among Russians.

Putin is in a very strong position. I think our only hope is that either the Western powers get involved on the ground in Ukraine or Putin is removed in a homegrown coup.

 

[Politesse]

It's what is happening but only because you chose to attack. If you hadn't attacked nothing would have happened.

I highly doubt Barbos is Putin. I suspect Putin has better things to do than to chat on a forum.

Trying to set up a future "The Germans didn't do it, Hitler did it" type of argument?

 

[Jayjay]

It appears from the aggregate that Russia is advancing, slowly, but surely... but definitely slowly and are randomly bombing the nation of Ukraine to attempt to weaken resolve.

Resolve that allegedly didn't exist.

I think the situation is even worse than that.

Russia is now in an "operational pause" caused by their enormous losses after battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, as well as Ukraine being able to disrupt their logistics by blowing up ammo depots deep behind the front lines. And even now, Ukraine is just barely holding ground and not making any advances.

Time in not on Ukraine's side. If they can't attack now, when Russia is at its weakest, its prospects for later are pretty bleak?

I don't disagree with you Jay. However, some good news:

Gas crisis spurs Germany to mull extending life of nuclear plants

Germany may extend the life of its three remaining nuclear power plants, the economy ministry said on Monday, as public support rises in the face of a possible cut-off of Russian gas.

www.reuters.com

At the end of the day, Russian isn't going to stop their invasion until it starts affecting the economy. They don't give a shit about the rural boys dying in the military (last estimate is that 50,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine). Their economy is doing find because Europe (Germany) is addicted to their gas. Well, it appears that sentiment is starting to change in Germany. It would be a huge military victory if Germany could get back on nuclear power and tell Russian gas producers to fuck off.

Germany is just extending the lifetime of its nuclear plants that were scheduled to be shut down by end of the year for a few months at best. It's not to increase electricity production, but just to survive next winter somehow. Germany doesn't have the guts to cut off the gas completely, but will instead take whatever droplets Russia will let through.

If Germany had kept its nuclear power at early 2000s level, that would have covered the entire natural gas section of energy production:

Of course it's not that simple, because investments in nuclear might have been away from renewables, and cheap production could've just made prices lower and increased demand, but overall this diagram shows how Germany shot itself in the foot.

It's unlikely that Germany will change its long-term view on nuclear power, and even if it did, it would take years to ramp up new plants.

 

[Jayjay]

At the end of the day, Russian isn't going to stop their invasion until it starts affecting the economy. They don't give a shit about the rural boys dying in the military (last estimate is that 50,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine). Their economy is doing find because Europe (Germany) is addicted to their gas. Well, it appears that sentiment is starting to change in Germany. It would be a huge military victory if Germany could get back on nuclear power and tell Russian gas producers to fuck off.

I don't think Putin even cares about that. Putin's power and personal wealth comes from his control over oil and gas. He'll always be able to sell that abroad.

As long as he can make Russians believe that the west is to blame for their suffering and their poverty, this war might even strengthen his standing among Russians.

Putin is in a very strong position. I think our only hope is that either the Western powers get involved on the ground in Ukraine or Putin is removed in a homegrown coup.

Exactly. "The economy" in Russia is hurting, badly... but it's the civilian economy. It could drop to 1991 level and that won't deter or stop the war in any shape or form. Experience with Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea show that sanctions are not effective at all in getting rid of autocrats.

However, I do think that stopping gas payments would hit Russia where it hurts, and that's the government budget. And some experts are saying that if Russia can't sell its gas to Europe, it will have to shut down some of the wells and that would be a permanent loss, because you can't just turn natural gas fields on and off like a light switch.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's what is happening but only because you chose to attack. If you hadn't attacked nothing would have happened.

I highly doubt Barbos is Putin. I suspect Putin has better things to do than to chat on a forum.

I was using "you" as in "the Russia he's supporting", not Barbos personally.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

What country do you consider your primary responsibility?

Patookonia of course. And yes it is a real nation. Got a flag and everything.

Snide remarks aside, I also consider myself a restoftheworld-ian. And as such I recognise Putin's actions will have a significant impact of global stability, and Australia is part of the globe. Food and other commodities are being affected by this, stability and market certainty is being affected by this and it makes far more sense to nip this on the bud now than after Putin consolidates his holdings of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Romania and proceeds to expand outwards.

Which leads me to ask you, for the fifth time, do you believe that the US should do nothing about Russia until Russia is on their doorstep?

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

 

[Elixir]

It's what is happening but only because you chose to attack. If you hadn't attacked nothing would have happened.

I highly doubt Barbos is Putin. I suspect Putin has better things to do than to chat on a forum.

I was using "you" as in "the Russia he's supporting", not Barbos personally.

I would really like to know how much Barbos’ shifty platform resembles that of “Russia” at large, vs simply parroting Putler’s message. It would be astonishing to me if more than 30-something percent of Russians went from “there will be no invasion” to “invasion was necessary” overnight, like Barbie did, without noticing or acknowledging how wrong he was (and how right everyone else here was) the day before.

Of course we will never what “Russians” think. Even Putler will never know what Russians think because he is quite evidently making his propaganda lines the law of the land, and woe unto whomsoever doth contradict those lies.

 

[Patooka]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Just so we're clear - you have never made a distinction between a country and a country's government.

Having said that; thank you for a complete response. It certainly makes sense on paper, and the fact that you believe in a magical universe where an nation and a nation's government are separate proves once and for all that you are a true Libertarian.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It's what is happening but only because you chose to attack. If you hadn't attacked nothing would have happened.

I highly doubt Barbos is Putin. I suspect Putin has better things to do than to chat on a forum.

I was using "you" as in "the Russia he's supporting", not Barbos personally.

I know that, but we should all try to avoid tribalism. He's not on team Russia. He's just a believer in a very specific pro-Russia narrative. It's just stories. They're not our identity. If you make this tribal, and the problem is the team he is on, not what facts he accepts, then why on Earth would he stop being a shill for Putin?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

It's what is happening but only because you chose to attack. If you hadn't attacked nothing would have happened.

I highly doubt Barbos is Putin. I suspect Putin has better things to do than to chat on a forum.

I was using "you" as in "the Russia he's supporting", not Barbos personally.

Is he actually supporting Russia?

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Just so we're clear - you have never made a distinction between a country and a country's government.

Having said that; thank you for a complete response. It certainly makes sense on paper, and the fact that you believe in a magical universe where an nation and a nation's government are separate proves once and for all that you are a true Libertarian.

I have so often based my position on "it is the job of the government of country X to take care of the people of country X" that I thought saying it yet again would be redundant. Apparently, as it is when I answer questions, it is not redundant because it is missed every other time I write that.

Still, there is nothing preventing the people who want to do something from doing so.

 

[laughing dog]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

 

[skepticalbip]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

I would assume that those who really want to do something have already caught a flight to the area and joined in the fray. Several have but apparently you haven't yet. If you really think you should support the Ukraine but don't want to get your hands dirty, then you could at least financially donate a few thousand dollars (weapons are expensive) to support the Ukraine defense here...

https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/

The problem is the war hawks who want the government to get involved in yet another war but want others to be sent, not themselves.

 

[Harry Bosch]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

I would assume that those who really want to do something have already caught a flight to the area and joined in the fray. Several have but apparently you haven't yet. If you really think you should support the Ukraine but don't want to get your hands dirty, then you could at least financially donate a few thousand dollars (weapons are expensive) to support the Ukraine defense here...

https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/

The problem is the war hawks who want the government to get involved in yet another war but want others to be sent, not themselves.

Amigo: I don't think that it's fair to call people who want to help Ukraine "war hawks". This isn't some "me macho, let's go" motivation. I think that most people just want the war to stop. Considering the fact that Russian goals were (are?) to conquer all Ukraine and "de-nazifiy" it, western aid has probably saved thousands of Ukranian lives.

 

[laughing dog]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

I would assume that those who really want to do something have already caught a flight to the area and joined in the fray. Several have but apparently you haven't yet. If you really think you should support the Ukraine but don't want to get your hands dirty, then you could at least financially donate a few thousand dollars (weapons are expensive) to support the Ukraine defense here...

https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/

The problem is the war hawks who want the government to get involved in yet another war but want others to be sent, not themselves.

That is non-responsive to my question. Moreover that facile response ignores the obvious problem of economies of scale in revenue collection and armament purchases.

 

[skepticalbip]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

I would assume that those who really want to do something have already caught a flight to the area and joined in the fray. Several have but apparently you haven't yet. If you really think you should support the Ukraine but don't want to get your hands dirty, then you could at least financially donate a few thousand dollars (weapons are expensive) to support the Ukraine defense here...

https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/

The problem is the war hawks who want the government to get involved in yet another war but want others to be sent, not themselves.

Amigo: I don't think that it's fair to call people who want to help Ukraine "war hawks". This isn't some "me macho, let's go" motivation. I think that most people just want the war to stop. Considering the fact that Russian goals were (are?) to conquer all Ukraine and "de-nazifiy" it, western aid has probably saved thousands of Ukranian lives.

I disagree. Those who really want to help, do. They can volunteer to fight with the Ukrainians as many have or they can contribute financially as many have. Those who want the government to intervene don't want to be bothered by doing something personally but want others to take care of it. Also, by definition, someone who wants the government to become involved militarily in a war is a war hawk.

 

[skepticalbip]

How many times must I say "yes" before you recognize that I answered "yes". Never mind, if you don't pay attention to my answers you can say I never answer. Of course you equivocate between "The US Government" and "The US", but that is expected these days because people have forgotten how to tell them apart.

By the way, saying the US GOVERNMENT should do nothing is not the same as saying the US people should do nothing.

Suppose the US people want the US government to do something?

I would assume that those who really want to do something have already caught a flight to the area and joined in the fray. Several have but apparently you haven't yet. If you really think you should support the Ukraine but don't want to get your hands dirty, then you could at least financially donate a few thousand dollars (weapons are expensive) to support the Ukraine defense here...

https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/

The problem is the war hawks who want the government to get involved in yet another war but want others to be sent, not themselves.

That is non-responsive to my question. Moreover that facile response ignores the obvious problem of economies of scale in revenue collection and armament purchases.

Economics of scale? If a third of the population of the U.S. really, really wanted to help the Ukraine and donated a couple thousand dollars each to the Ukrainian war effort then that would be several hundred billion dollars. If a third of the population volunteered to fight then they could, with the Ukrainians overrun Moscow.

But you are right, if only you did such things then it wouldn't be enough to be noticed by the Ukraine but it may make you feel like you, at least, contributed something toward the outcome you want. Bitching in an internet forum isn't personally contributing to the aid of Ukraine.

 

[TSwizzle]

Amigo: I don't think that it's fair to call people who want to help Ukraine "war hawks". This isn't some "me macho, let's go" motivation. I think that most people just want the war to stop. Considering the fact that Russian goals were (are?) to conquer all Ukraine and "de-nazifiy" it, western aid has probably saved thousands of Ukranian lives.

Without a doubt what is happening in Ukraine is barbaric and unjust and no doubt gets people all emotional. But it's not the USA's problem to solve by getting into another military adventure. The time to save Ukraine has passed. Let the Europeans get on with it. All that is happening now is prolonging the conflict and costing the US tax payer billions of dollars.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Amigo: I don't think that it's fair to call people who want to help Ukraine "war hawks". This isn't some "me macho, let's go" motivation. I think that most people just want the war to stop. Considering the fact that Russian goals were (are?) to conquer all Ukraine and "de-nazifiy" it, western aid has probably saved thousands of Ukranian lives.

Without a doubt what is happening in Ukraine is barbaric and unjust and no doubt gets people all emotional. But it's not the USA's problem to solve by getting into another military adventure. The time to save Ukraine has passed. Let the Europeans get on with it. All that is happening now is prolonging the conflict and costing the US tax payer billions of dollars.

I don't agree. IMO, if Russia had been able to accomplish their goals in Ukraine in the first couple weeks, that Nato would be at war today with Russia. The Russians want war. They want the countries that they lost after losing the cold war. It would have been far far far more expensive for us today if we were directly fighting Russia. Sending support to the country that is willing to fight and degrade an imperialistic power is a very very good investment. If Russia fails, it may also persuade other imperialistic powers to keep their troops home.