Is N Korea really a threat?

[Elixir]

I think not, unless that little fat kid is suicidal.

Why would he EVER launch a nuke against anyone, let alone the US, when the retaliation would be swift and certain, rendering his entire territory an uninhabitable wasteland for generations to come?
This is much ado about very little - other than political posturing.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

 

[Elixir]

Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

But only if he has something to "deter" ... once again, making the dubious assumption that he is at least a tiny bit rational, or has some vestige of a self-preservation instinct.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The nuclear weapon plan by North Korea has always been a ploy to keep the Kims in charge of North Korea. Using the nuclear weapons would end their dynasty. But having them, cements it until someone else tries to seize it within North Korea.

 

[untermensche]

Much less a threat than the current president.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So if North Korea gets the ICBM nuke set up, at what point are we at Cuba status... where the past 60 years of policy failed at containing nuclear weapons, but succeeded in not getting a lot of people outside of North Korea killed. A lot of North Koreans are suffering because of our sanctions. At what point do you give up, but try to get some sort of limit or agreement, such as making them shut up about nuclear secrets and not assist others?

 

[Elixir]

So if North Korea gets the ICBM nuke set up, at what point are we at Cuba status...

Never at the Cuba level of mutually assured destruction. They might get off a handful of missiles, and a few might get through. But their entire country would be a sheet of glowing glass.

At what point do you give up, but try to get some sort of limit or agreement, such as making them shut up about nuclear secrets and not assist others?

Should have done that long ago, IMHO.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

North Korea is a George W. Bush "Axis of Evil" country. Look at what happened to the other two. Talking big about nuclear arsenal is their way of keeping a US invasion from happening. Iran does the same. If anybody truly needs nuclear weapons as a deterrent it is these countries the USA demonizes (sometimes for good reason) and constantly talks about bombing. I don't have any more concern over North Korea actually nuking anybody. Their focus is inward, not outward. The Kims merely want to stay in control and this is a way of doing so.

 

[rousseau]

Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

Yep. That's what makes it scary, all of these batshit, psychopathic leaders aren't actually rational actors, which is worsened when they're leaders of an authoritarian state.

Do we have a serious threat? Maybe not. But we have a threat.

 

[ZiprHead]

If I was S. Korean, Japanese or a US soldier/sailor stationed in the area, I would be worried.

My guess is that N.Korea's ICBM program is severely limited. Perhaps the one that they just shot off was the only operational missile they had.

 

[funinspace]

Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

But only if he has something to "deter" ... once again, making the dubious assumption that he is at least a tiny bit rational, or has some vestige of a self-preservation instinct.

The timing couldn't be better for a sequel to the Cuban missile crisis. Two bombastic egomaniacs blowing smoke back and forth, and we get to hope that neither one does something crazy. Not that I think El Cheato would start a nuclear launch, but he could still do something very stupid militarily.

Up until recently, Pakistan was my biggest fear factor for launching modern nuclear weapons. Now it does seam like NK is getting close to both quality warheads and solid rocket ICBMs. Not a good thing, as I think I have to have more faith that the Pakistani Generals are less crazy than the fat kid.

 

[Elixir]

If I was S. Korean, Japanese or a US soldier/sailor stationed in the area, I would be worried.

My guess is that N.Korea's ICBM program is severely limited. Perhaps the one that they just shot off was the only operational missile they had.

All this sabre rattling is to no good end. The US should just remind little fatso that any hint of a launch will result in his obliteration, and leave it at that.

 

[Opoponax]

If I was S. Korean, Japanese or a US soldier/sailor stationed in the area, I would be worried.

My guess is that N.Korea's ICBM program is severely limited. Perhaps the one that they just shot off was the only operational missile they had.

All this sabre rattling is to no good end. The US should just remind little fatso that any hint of a launch will result in his obliteration, and leave it at that.

This^.

And what others have said. NK has nukes specifically to deter others from invading them, which enables leadership to hold onto power in perpetuity.

Also, it's difficult to discuss just how insane Kim may be when we have a raving shit-stain as POTUS. In a serious crisis, does anyone trust Trump to make the hard call, or be the cooler head that comes up with an alternative solution at the last minute? Fucking please. And we worry about the mental stability of NK's leadership?

The downside of doing nothing is that NK nukes could proliferate and some day represent a true threat to the world. But so far we have 65 or so years of functional MAD. We also have roughly the same number of years of NK threatening fiery death and destruction on the U.S. Basically ignoring the validity of those threats has worked and likely will continue to work well.

 

[ZiprHead]

MSNBC is just now reporting that N Korea has perfected a small nuclear warhead that could go into their missile, overcoming a problem they've had in the past.

 

[Opoponax]

MSNBC is just now reporting that N Korea has perfected a small nuclear warhead that could go into their missile, overcoming a problem they've had in the past.

And if Fox News sold adult diapers, they'd suddenly find themselves back-ordered for months.

 

[Elixir]

MSNBC is just now reporting that N Korea has perfected a small nuclear warhead that could go into their missile, overcoming a problem they've had in the past.

They've had a problem assuring their own destruction if they attack anyone?
Seems to me that back in the day, the worst they could fear would have been an invasion.

 

[LordKiran]

So if North Korea gets the ICBM nuke set up, at what point are we at Cuba status... where the past 60 years of policy failed at containing nuclear weapons, but succeeded in not getting a lot of people outside of North Korea killed. A lot of North Koreans are suffering because of our sanctions. At what point do you give up, but try to get some sort of limit or agreement, such as making them shut up about nuclear secrets and not assist others?

To be fair, they'd suffer no matter what. The dictatorship will most likely keep most of the gains from being allowed to trade openly on the global market to itself and to the most vital of supporters in Pyongyang.

At a certain point, small amounts of succor doesn't really make much of a difference when the nation you live in will throw you and your entire family into a North Korean concentration camp over the smallest of offenses.

 

[whichphilosophy]

I think not, unless that little fat kid is suicidal.

Why would he EVER launch a nuke against anyone, let alone the US, when the retaliation would be swift and certain, rendering his entire territory an uninhabitable wasteland for generations to come?
This is much ado about very little - other than political posturing.

You are probably spot on,but deception is a key element in any confrontation (and of course in warfare).

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/103957-all-warfare-is-based-on-deception-hence-when-we-are
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu

America's Asian conflicts against Japan, North Korea, and North Vietnam brought Sun Tzu to the attention of American military leaders. The Department of the Army in the United States, through its Command and General Staff College, has directed all units to maintain libraries within their respective headquarters for the continuing education of personnel in the art of war. The Art of War is mentioned as an example of works to be maintained at each facility, and staff duty officers are obliged to prepare short papers for presentation to other officers on their readings.[37] Similarly, Sun Tzu's Art of War is listed on the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program

 

[whichphilosophy]

is just now reporting that N Korea has perfected a small nuclear warhead that could go into their missile, overcoming a problem they've had in the past.

Or could it be bluff and what better people to fool than the media especially MSNBC, Fox, the Washington Post or anyone with a fake leak from a credible source.

This could also mean that North Korea would like one but inflates itself to give an impression it is a year or so ahead of itself. If it did, this is not the first time an army or nation has bluffed its way.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/08/politics/north-korea-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons/index.html

 

[Elixir]

MSNBC is just now reporting that N Korea has perfected a small nuclear warhead that could go into their missile, overcoming a problem they've had in the past.

And if Fox News sold adult diapers, they'd suddenly find themselves back-ordered for months.

The way the rethuglicans have been shitting their pants lately, it would be gross negligence if it turned out that they didn't have YUUUUGE backstock of diapers.