Is N Korea really a threat?

[Loren Pechtel]

The thing is without our presence North Korea could quickly storm south and capture several million SK citizens to use as hostages. The SK government would cave. They aren't realistically capable of defending themselves due to the geography.

Before you go to bed tonight, remember to look under you bed to make sure there are no monsters hiding there

Try looking at the real world, not whatever Putin wants you to say.

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The US military's presence around the globe has caused more deaths that any other party.
And it has bankrupted America. I hope you aren't counting on getting a pension one day.

Our presence? We keep putting out the fires that Russia lights!

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I don't know why I bother responding to you. You seem to be having a conversation with yourself. Of course if you stopped putting words in my mouth that I have never expressed you might have to address what I actually wrote.

You started with saying that if the US doesn't have troops there that is because we think their lives have no value. Don't get angry when the same argument is used on you. Why should the US spend US blood and US money defending a country that isn't the US? Should those countries defend the US in turn? After 60 years of training them to take care of themselves, doesn't the "fact" that they can't take care of themselves indicate it is a lost cause without us? Is there anyone out there that can do without our military intervention?

Really?

South Korea has four advantages over North Korea: population, money, technology, and food. Plus although China is allied to North Korea, China is a trade partner with South Korea. And you think that after 60 years the South Korean government is honestly that shaky? You think they government is as uncertain as when the Korean War ended 60 years ago?

Think any democracy could survive sacrificing that many of it's citizens??

So ... you are worried that if war broke out, South Korea might become a military police state in order to defeat North Korea? Therefore they need us to fight on their behalf? Is their democracy that fragile after 60 years of the US taking care of them?

Is there any country out there that can survive without US intervention?

Also, why should we care that SK would fall if NK invades? If they are as weak as you say they are (and they aren't) then isn't propping them up until they don't need us a fools quest?

The problem is geography. They can't defend themselves other than by moving Seoul.

Pyongyang isn't that far from the border either. So North Korea's problem is also geography. So the choices of South Korea are move their capital, become a military dictatorship, or have the US fight their war for them?

Before you go to bed tonight, remember to look under you bed to make sure there are no monsters hiding there

Try looking at the real world, not whatever Putin wants you to say.

Be sure to check for those Russian spies under your bed too. Or do the Russian spies hide in the closet?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

It occurs to me, this talk about how South Korea is so dependent on us is nothing more than the "soft" racism of low expectations.


The White Man's Burden
by Rudyard Kipling, who at first gloried the empire then realized how bad it really was


TAKE up the White Man's burden -
Send forth the best ye breed -
Go bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives' need;
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild -
Your new-caught sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.

Take up the White Man's burden -
In patience to abide
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain,
To seek another's profit,
And work another's gain.

Take up the White Man's burden -
The savage wars of peace -
Fill full the mouth of famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought.

Take up the White Man's burden -
No tawdry rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper -
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go make them with your living,
And mark them with your dead !

Take up the White Man's burden -
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard -
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah slowly !) towards the light:-
"Why brought ye us from bondage,
"Our loved Egyptian night ?"

Take up the White Man's burden -
Ye dare not stoop to less -
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloak your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent sullen peoples
Shall weigh your Gods and you.

Take up the White Man's burden -
Have done with childish days -
The lightly proffered laurel,
The easy, ungrudged praise.
Comes now, to search your manhood
Through all the thankless years,
Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom,
The judgement of your peers.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It occurs to me, this talk about how South Korea is so dependent on us is nothing more than the "soft" racism of low expectations.

Great point. 4th largest military just north of the border, with an ass load of heavy artillery aimed at a city of 25 million people... and this is about The White Man's Burden. South Korea and Japan are allies. Maybe you forgot about that.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Iraq once had one of the largest militaries in the world. Size only means so much. One company of fully equipped marines versus one million people armed with sticks, who would win?

Japan, unfortunately, is a special case. The treaty that ended WWII forbade them from having a real military and as such on the "you break it you buy it" principle we do have an obligation. But South Korea is our ally because North Korea is our enemy because South Korea is our ally because North Korea is our enemy because South Korea is our ally because North Korea is our enemy...

 

[prideandfall]

i'm not sure what shocks me more:
how much this all sounds EXACTLY like the rhetoric surrounding iraq prior to the invasion there - "horrible dictator! nukes! american interests! argle bargle!"
or, just how much you fucking idiots are falling for the exact same line of bullshit again just 15 years later.

some tiny part of me kept wanting to think that maybe i was just a grumpy cynical bastard who wasn't giving americans the benefit of the doubt, but nope... you're all god damn retarded.

 

[Speakpigeon]

I think not, unless that little fat kid is suicidal.

Why would he EVER launch a nuke against anyone, let alone the US, when the retaliation would be swift and certain, rendering his entire territory an uninhabitable wasteland for generations to come?
This is much ado about very little - other than political posturing.

I don't see why NK would want to start a nuclear conflict. Nuclear weapons is an insurance to try and protect their independence.

It also provides some room for using conventional weapons without being outgunned by an opponent possessing nuclear weapons.

It's Ok for Kim Jong Un to talk big but while he might well be insane, surely, NK's power elite can't be all insane. So one issue is whether the NK elite would let Kim Jong Un actually seal their doom by sending a nuclear bomb on anybody about to remove him from power.

Still, that sort of things is probably way to complicated to analyse and predict, as we've seen recently in Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

So, now, the question is really whether anyone is really going to try to remove Kim Jong Un from power.

If not, everybody should be safe.

So, how safe, really?
EB

 

[fromderinside]

So, say, they get one miniaturized nuke into a ICBM and fire it off. It hits the ocean 11 miles west of Santa Barbara. NK has shot it's wad. US waits about 90 days as China dismantles NK. US pays China 100 billion for a job well done. So what? Now China is better off. N Koreans would be as well. Imagine the new customers for Chinese products and technology. S Korea has a new customer in Chi-NK. Trump now has a new tough guy to admire. All's good.

 

[Speakpigeon]

I think not, unless that little fat kid is suicidal.

Why would he EVER launch a nuke against anyone, let alone the US, when the retaliation would be swift and certain, rendering his entire territory an uninhabitable wasteland for generations to come?
This is much ado about very little - other than political posturing.

Of course he's not going to start a nuclear war. What happens if he starts a conventional war to conquer South Korea and uses his nukes to tell us to stay out of it, though?

Typically, the U.S., and any allies, would have to fight a conventional war on the South's territory, with possibly limited strikes on the North to avoid triggering a nuclear response.

Not pretty, and certainly very dangerous.

And the North could conceivably win the conventional conflict in the end.
EB.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

And the North could conceivably win the conventional conflict in the end.

Uh, probably not.

 

[funinspace]

It occurs to me, this talk about how South Korea is so dependent on us is nothing more than the "soft" racism of low expectations.

Great point. 4th largest military just north of the border, with an ass load of heavy artillery aimed at a city of 25 million people... and this is about The White Man's Burden. South Korea and Japan are allies. Maybe you forgot about that.

Not that I agree with Jason's point of dependency, but....

SK only spends 2.7% of its GDP on its military. Clearly they are not that worried about the long term situation. For comparison's sake, Israel spends 5.8%. IMPOV, SK has a sweet arrangement. They let the US stick one of its feet on their peninsula, and be the big bully providing them cover, while Samsung, hyundai, Kia, et.al. export tons of shit our way. And the US military-complex gets to keep two of the sow's teats completely to themselves.

Of course now NK appears to be on the brink of becoming another nuclear weapons power, which naturally scares a lot of people shitless. So we don't get to ponder what would have happened if the US had let SK start handling its own affairs some 20-30 years ago...

A crazy idea that our military-complex wouldn't tolerate, but the PRC might agree to: We have secret discussions with the PRC, and agree to a joint attach on the fat kid, we hit the DMZ as hard as we can as well as ICBM sites, and the PRC topple the fat kid and sets up a new friendlier kid, but neutered of nuclear technology. Once its over, all US military permanently leaves the peninsula, with SK free as always to buy US toys.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Pyongyang isn't that far from the border either. So North Korea's problem is also geography. So the choices of South Korea are move their capital, become a military dictatorship, or have the US fight their war for them?

But South Korea wouldn't use hostage tactics (it's a major war crime) and North Korea would sacrifice it's citizens anyway.

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Iraq once had one of the largest militaries in the world. Size only means so much. One company of fully equipped marines versus one million people armed with sticks, who would win?

If their motivation to fight was high enough, the sticks.

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I don't see why NK would want to start a nuclear conflict. Nuclear weapons is an insurance to try and protect their independence.

Of course he doesn't.

The problem is that he wants danegeld and is quite willing to use the threat of war to get it.

Not to mention that he's going to react like a spoiled child if he's told no to the danegeld.

 

[angelo]

i'm not sure what shocks me more:
how much this all sounds EXACTLY like the rhetoric surrounding iraq prior to the invasion there - "horrible dictator! nukes! american interests! argle bargle!"
or, just how much you fucking idiots are falling for the exact same line of bullshit again just 15 years later.

some tiny part of me kept wanting to think that maybe i was just a grumpy cynical bastard who wasn't giving americans the benefit of the doubt, but nope... you're all god damn retarded.

Saddam Hussain was a saint as compared to the " Fat Kid!" Besides, Iraq didn't have nukes.

 

[prideandfall]

i'm not sure what shocks me more:
how much this all sounds EXACTLY like the rhetoric surrounding iraq prior to the invasion there - "horrible dictator! nukes! american interests! argle bargle!"
or, just how much you fucking idiots are falling for the exact same line of bullshit again just 15 years later.

some tiny part of me kept wanting to think that maybe i was just a grumpy cynical bastard who wasn't giving americans the benefit of the doubt, but nope... you're all god damn retarded.

Saddam Hussain was a saint as compared to the " Fat Kid!" Besides, Iraq didn't have nukes.

do you not get the intended point that yeah, iraq didn't have nukes, but why did we think it did have nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration told us they do.

why do we think NK has nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration tells us they do.

it's the exact same setup and everyone is falling for it.

 

[funinspace]

Saddam Hussain was a saint as compared to the " Fat Kid!" Besides, Iraq didn't have nukes.

do you not get the intended point that yeah, iraq didn't have nukes, but why did we think it did have nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration told us they do.

why do we think NK has nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration tells us they do.

it's the exact same setup and everyone is falling for it.

It is hardly "the exact same setup", as Pres. Obama & HRC were also publicly very concerned about NK's nuclear weapons program. Russia, China, India among many others all think NK is on the verge of having launchable nuclear weapons. The bigger recent concern is two fold: (1) NKs successful launching of solid rocket ICBM's, which are much harder to monitor for launches when compared to liquid fueled ICBMs; (2) the miniaturization of the nuclear weapon to fit into their ICBM.

NK has had several verified nuclear weapons tests.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-tunnel-idUSKCN11H0RP

North Korea set off its most powerful nuclear blast to date on Friday, saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile and ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

"Assessment by South Korean and U.S. intelligence is that the North is always ready for an additional nuclear test in the Punggye-ri area," the site of all five nuclear explosions, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a news briefing.
<snip>
Russia said Lavrov and Wang condemned North Korea's latest nuclear test in a phone conversation on Monday

On a side note: Comparing Saddam Hussain to the fat kid is like discussing which serial killer is worse...

 

[whichphilosophy]

do you not get the intended point that yeah, iraq didn't have nukes, but why did we think it did have nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration told us they do.

why do we think NK has nukes? oh yeah because the republican administration tells us they do.

it's the exact same setup and everyone is falling for it.

It is hardly "the exact same setup", as Pres. Obama & HRC were also publicly very concerned about NK's nuclear weapons program. Russia, China, India among many others all think NK is on the verge of having launchable nuclear weapons. The bigger recent concern is two fold: (1) NKs successful launching of solid rocket ICBM's, which are much harder to monitor for launches when compared to liquid fueled ICBMs; (2) the miniaturization of the nuclear weapon to fit into their ICBM.

NK has had several verified nuclear weapons tests.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-tunnel-idUSKCN11H0RP

North Korea set off its most powerful nuclear blast to date on Friday, saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile and ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

"Assessment by South Korean and U.S. intelligence is that the North is always ready for an additional nuclear test in the Punggye-ri area," the site of all five nuclear explosions, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a news briefing.
<snip>
Russia said Lavrov and Wang condemned North Korea's latest nuclear test in a phone conversation on Monday

On a side note: Comparing Saddam Hussain to the fat kid is like discussing which serial killer is worse...

You could say Bush and Blair are serial killers using political weapons of mass distraction.

 

[skepticalbip]

Iraq once had one of the largest militaries in the world. Size only means so much. One company of fully equipped marines versus one million people armed with sticks, who would win?

If their motivation to fight was high enough, the sticks.

And it wouldn't even be a close call. A fully equipped marine company would not be carrying enough ammo to kill anywhere even close to 1/4 of the stick fighters even if every single bullet resulted in a kill (which would be far from reality)

 

[funinspace]

It is hardly "the exact same setup", as Pres. Obama & HRC were also publicly very concerned about NK's nuclear weapons program. Russia, China, India among many others all think NK is on the verge of having launchable nuclear weapons. The bigger recent concern is two fold: (1) NKs successful launching of solid rocket ICBM's, which are much harder to monitor for launches when compared to liquid fueled ICBMs; (2) the miniaturization of the nuclear weapon to fit into their ICBM.

NK has had several verified nuclear weapons tests.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-tunnel-idUSKCN11H0RP

North Korea set off its most powerful nuclear blast to date on Friday, saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile and ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

"Assessment by South Korean and U.S. intelligence is that the North is always ready for an additional nuclear test in the Punggye-ri area," the site of all five nuclear explosions, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a news briefing.
<snip>
Russia said Lavrov and Wang condemned North Korea's latest nuclear test in a phone conversation on Monday

On a side note: Comparing Saddam Hussain to the fat kid is like discussing which serial killer is worse...

You could say Bush and Blair are serial killers using political weapons of mass distraction.

You could say that FFvC is a space alien lizard in drag...

 

[skepticalbip]

Great point. 4th largest military just north of the border, with an ass load of heavy artillery aimed at a city of 25 million people... and this is about The White Man's Burden. South Korea and Japan are allies. Maybe you forgot about that.

Not that I agree with Jason's point of dependency, but....

SK only spends 2.7% of its GDP on its military. Clearly they are not that worried about the long term situation. For comparison's sake, Israel spends 5.8%. IMPOV, SK has a sweet arrangement. They let the US stick one of its feet on their peninsula, and be the big bully providing them cover, while Samsung, hyundai, Kia, et.al. export tons of shit our way. And the US military-complex gets to keep two of the sow's teats completely to themselves.

Of course now NK appears to be on the brink of becoming another nuclear weapons power, which naturally scares a lot of people shitless. So we don't get to ponder what would have happened if the US had let SK start handling its own affairs some 20-30 years ago...

A crazy idea that our military-complex wouldn't tolerate, but the PRC might agree to: We have secret discussions with the PRC, and agree to a joint attach on the fat kid, we hit the DMZ as hard as we can as well as ICBM sites, and the PRC topple the fat kid and sets up a new friendlier kid, but neutered of nuclear technology. Once its over, all US military permanently leaves the peninsula, with SK free as always to buy US toys.

This seems an apt comparison with the NATO situation. Europe depends on the US carrying the lion's share of NATO expenses to protect the EU from Russia which has an economy comparable to that of Spain and a population 1/5 that of the EU.

 

[LordKiran]

Thinking about it, the best way to neutralize NK would be to not even acknowledge them as an independant state. If we made a point to speak the the PRC directly and say "This is YOUR fault, NK is YOUR dependency, they're YOUR client state. So YOU will fix this, or measures will be taken against YOU."

If there's one thing people hate, it's accountability.