It ain't over yet

[Elixir]

I don't know what to think about Joe and Jane American who support Trumpy.

Last evening I sat on our front porch and handed out candy to hundreds of trick-or-treaters. They were adorable. One kid - looked to be about 12 - noticed my Clinton/Kaine signs and exclaimed, "You're voting against Trump?" Before I could say a word this similarly aged girl says "I support Hillary," to which I added, "Me too."

I'm sure that among 12 year old white males Trump would win in a landslide of biblical proportions. He's a perfect fit for their way of not thinking.

That said, however, if there are enough 12-year-old white male thinking voters then Trump will be president. That's the way our system works.

If you're a 12 year old white male, they let you vote in some places.

 

[SLD]

It is fucking over. Clinton will come close to sweeping the Battleground States.

- - - Updated - - -

https://politicalwire.com/

A Clinton-Trump Rematch In 2020?

October 29, 2016By Taegan Goddard94 Comments
“Newt Gingrich, one of Donald Trump’s closest confidants and most visible boosters, on Friday raised the novel possibility of a Trump-Clinton rematch in 2020,” Politico reports.
Said Gingrich: “The challenge for everybody’s going to be, ‘What if he gets 48 or 49 percent?’ And what if he says: ‘You know, I like this campaign and stuff. I ain’t leaving’? There will then be a Trump Party.”


---

Shudder...

Trump will be 76.

wishful thinking. Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%. This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would. The polls are so up and down, and up and down, the election has to hit at the right point in the cycle. Maybe this is just the low point and for the next week she will climb.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is fucking over. Clinton will come close to sweeping the Battleground States.

- - - Updated - - -

Trump will be 76.

wishful thinking.

No, it is not wishful thinking. Clinton is well in the lead in PA. And she has had a solid lead in VA, NH, and CO for months now. That is all she needs! As things stand, I can't see how it is possible for her to win by less than 4 million votes.

Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%.

National polls are meaningless.

This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would.

Trump has never had the lead in the Electoral College and there isn't much of a feasible path for him to win the popular vote, without the polls being terribly wrong on Georgia and Texas. This is simple counting.

 

[Warpoet]

wishful thinking. Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%. This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would. The polls are so up and down, and up and down, the election has to hit at the right point in the cycle. Maybe this is just the low point and for the next week she will climb.

The electoral map isn't up and down at all, though. What you keep missing - and I'm not sure why you're so persistent in doing so - is that Trump needs to win basically every single swing state in order to win. Having a shot at a couple and being behind in the rest doesn't make this a close election.

The FBI thing will take a few days to register in the polls, but early indications are that it isn't changing many minds.

 

[SLD]

wishful thinking.

No, it is not wishful thinking. Clinton is well in the lead in PA. And she has had a solid lead in VA, NH, and CO for months now. That is all she needs! As things stand, I can't see how it is possible for her to win by less than 4 million votes.

Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%.

National polls are meaningless.

This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would.

Trump has never had the lead in the Electoral College and there isn't much of a feasible path for him to win the popular vote, without the polls being terribly wrong on Georgia and Texas. This is simple counting.

Actually the last two polls in Colorado put her ahead, but in the margin of error. So even if she holds on to Va and PA, she may need Colorado too. Fortunately she's also doing well in North Carolina right now and thus she may not need it. But this new Comey bombshell could sway some on the fence voters there.

I am still fairly optimistic that she'll pull it out. I just think it's going to be closer than predicted a few weeks ago. I think the new Comey thing will blow over quickly and that will help. It happened far enough back not to dramatically alter the equation. I like the way Clinton and the Democrats came out swinging against his statement.

My EV projection for right now is she gets 288 EV's. But she needs to pull out the stops in these swing states to keep that up. I intend to go to NC and help.

SLD

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

No, it is not wishful thinking. Clinton is well in the lead in PA. And she has had a solid lead in VA, NH, and CO for months now. That is all she needs! As things stand, I can't see how it is possible for her to win by less than 4 million votes.

Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%.

National polls are meaningless.

This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would.

Trump has never had the lead in the Electoral College and there isn't much of a feasible path for him to win the popular vote, without the polls being terribly wrong on Georgia and Texas. This is simple counting.

Actually the last two polls in Colorado put her ahead, but in the margin of error. So even if she holds on to Va and PA, she may need Colorado too.

She needs Colorado if she loses NC, FL, OH, NV, etc...

Fortunately she's also doing well in North Carolina right now and thus she may not need it. But this new Comey bombshell could sway some on the fence voters there.

There is no bombshell. These aren't her emails, they aren't on her server.

I am still fairly optimistic that she'll pull it out. I just think it's going to be closer than predicted a few weeks ago. I think the new Comey thing will blow over quickly and that will help. It happened far enough back not to dramatically alter the equation. I like the way Clinton and the Democrats came out swinging against his statement.

My EV projection for right now is she gets 288 EV's. But she needs to pull out the stops in these swing states to keep that up. I intend to go to NC and help.

288, gawd help us. She doesn't win much of any swing state with that total. 341, not one less.

 

[SLD]

No, it is not wishful thinking. Clinton is well in the lead in PA. And she has had a solid lead in VA, NH, and CO for months now. That is all she needs! As things stand, I can't see how it is possible for her to win by less than 4 million votes.

Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%.

National polls are meaningless.

This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would.

Trump has never had the lead in the Electoral College and there isn't much of a feasible path for him to win the popular vote, without the polls being terribly wrong on Georgia and Texas. This is simple counting.

Actually the last two polls in Colorado put her ahead, but in the margin of error. So even if she holds on to Va and PA, she may need Colorado too.

She needs Colorado if she loses NC, FL, OH, NV, etc...

Fortunately she's also doing well in North Carolina right now and thus she may not need it. But this new Comey bombshell could sway some on the fence voters there.

There is no bombshell. These aren't her emails, they aren't on her server.

I am still fairly optimistic that she'll pull it out. I just think it's going to be closer than predicted a few weeks ago. I think the new Comey thing will blow over quickly and that will help. It happened far enough back not to dramatically alter the equation. I like the way Clinton and the Democrats came out swinging against his statement.

My EV projection for right now is she gets 288 EV's. But she needs to pull out the stops in these swing states to keep that up. I intend to go to NC and help.

288, gawd help us. She doesn't win much of any swing state with that total. 341, not one less.

I prefer 535. And while I agree with you about Comey, I just fear that for fencsitters who won't read past the headlines, that it's enough to sway them. I'm just hoping that the other headlines will detract between now and Tuesday because the public is fickle and is jumping around with every new headline.

SLD

 

[Elixir]

No, it is not wishful thinking. Clinton is well in the lead in PA. And she has had a solid lead in VA, NH, and CO for months now. That is all she needs! As things stand, I can't see how it is possible for her to win by less than 4 million votes.

Today's polls in RCP show the national vote in pretty much a dead heat, with Clinton leading either 1 or 2%.

National polls are meaningless.

This thing is getting worse for Clinton as I suspected it would.

Trump has never had the lead in the Electoral College and there isn't much of a feasible path for him to win the popular vote, without the polls being terribly wrong on Georgia and Texas. This is simple counting.

Actually the last two polls in Colorado put her ahead, but in the margin of error. So even if she holds on to Va and PA, she may need Colorado too.

She needs Colorado if she loses NC, FL, OH, NV, etc...

Fortunately she's also doing well in North Carolina right now and thus she may not need it. But this new Comey bombshell could sway some on the fence voters there.

There is no bombshell. These aren't her emails, they aren't on her server.

I am still fairly optimistic that she'll pull it out. I just think it's going to be closer than predicted a few weeks ago. I think the new Comey thing will blow over quickly and that will help. It happened far enough back not to dramatically alter the equation. I like the way Clinton and the Democrats came out swinging against his statement.

My EV projection for right now is she gets 288 EV's. But she needs to pull out the stops in these swing states to keep that up. I intend to go to NC and help.

288, gawd help us. She doesn't win much of any swing state with that total. 341, not one less.

I prefer 535. And while I agree with you about Comey, I just fear that for fencsitters who won't read past the headlines, that it's enough to sway them. I'm just hoping that the other headlines will detract between now and Tuesday because the public is fickle and is jumping around with every new headline.

SLD

Do you think "HRC (or HRC aides) Tells DOJ to Lock Up Trump NOW for Sexual Assault, Fraud and Bribery!!" would do the trick?

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Now that he has the warrant, there's plenty of time for Comey to pull an Emily Litella.

Unless he's too busy sending out resumes.

 

[SLD]

Today's Nate Silver blog shows her losing both Florida and Ohio with bare majorities in Nevada and North Carolina. Colorado polls are within the margin of error. Das is nicht gut. This is far from over. It will come down to turnout in Colorado and North Carolina. Here is today's RCP average showing a Trump surge.



SLD

 

[SLD]

Standing by for the next Trump FU. ...nine. eight, seven ........

Wishful thinking. He's learned his lesson to shut up it appears.

Now new polling shows him jumping ahead in North Carolina. This whole thing is turning sour fast. It ain't over, but it's not looking good for Clinton.

Oh well, look on the bright side: Democrats will sweep the house and senate in 2018, and maybe be so disgusted with this cocksucker that we'll have a good liberal candidate take over in 2020.

SLD

 

[Ford]

Moody's is predicting a Clinton victory:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/

The economic factors in the Moody's model are: Two-year change in real household income, real home price growth and gas prices. The political factors are the two-year change in the president's approval rating, political fatigue (some states have a tendency to switch party votes every few yeas), and how Democratic-leaning a state is.

There's just one red flag: This is not a normal election.

That last bit is true, but it is still Hillary's race to lose.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

MSNBC is reporting that in Florida, early voting is going well for Clinton. 28% of early GOP voters are going for Clinton. If Clinton wins Florida, trump has no chance. But Clinton can lose Florida and still win.

There may well be a Bradley effect for Clinton. Reports are coming in the many women voters plan to vote for Clinton, but are not being public about it.

Post election poll autopsy will be interesting.

 

[SLD]

Moody's is predicting a Clinton victory:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/

The economic factors in the Moody's model are: Two-year change in real household income, real home price growth and gas prices. The political factors are the two-year change in the president's approval rating, political fatigue (some states have a tendency to switch party votes every few yeas), and how Democratic-leaning a state is.

There's just one red flag: This is not a normal election.

That last bit is true, but it is still Hillary's race to lose.

I've seen a lot of these historical analysis. Just read one predicting a Trump win. These historical records keep getting broken in every election. I don't think much of any of them. I focus on the polls. Right now they show her eking by a victory. Just one a little too close for comfort.

SLD

- - - Updated - - -

MSNBC is reporting that in Florida, early voting is going well for Clinton. 28% of early GOP voters are going for Clinton. If Clinton wins Florida, trump has no chance. But Clinton can lose Florida and still win.

There may well be a Bradley effect for Clinton. Reports are coming in the many women voters plan to vote for Clinton, but are not being public about it.

Post election poll autopsy will be interesting.

hope you're right! But yes the path to 270 for her is quite clear.

SLD

 

[blastula]

Standing by for the next Trump FU. ...nine. eight, seven ........

Wishful thinking. He's learned his lesson to shut up it appears.

He says stupid stuff everyday, stuff that any other candidate would be so ashamed of they would quit over, but now it's all white noise.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Post election poll autopsy will be interesting.

I can write that up now.

• Holy shit, a super majority of Republicans will vote for anyone with an R next to their name
• Independents didn't buy him enough as a credible candidate
• Perhaps demonizing minorities and using code words should stop
• Jesus fucking Christ! The Tea Party has cost us the majority in the senate on multiple occasions and now the White House... time to destroy them!!!
• Holy fuck, did Paul Ryan lose the Speaker position while still having a majority in the House.
• What the fuck has Obama started?

 

[Elixir]

Post election poll autopsy will be interesting.

I can write that up now.

• Holy shit, a super majority of Republicans will vote for anyone with an R next to their name
• Independents didn't buy him enough as a credible candidate
• Perhaps demonizing minorities and using code words should stop
• Jesus fucking Christ! The Tea Party has cost us the majority in the senate on multiple occasions and now the White House... time to destroy them!!!
• Holy fuck, did Paul Ryan lose the Speaker position while still having a majority in the House.
• What the fuck has Obama started?

That's one set of possible outcomes. Here's another:

• Maybe letting Debbie pick our nominee wasn't the best idea after all.
• We should have known that they weren't going to invest $200m and thirty years of their time for nothing!
• Orange is the new green.
• People prefer knowing they're going to be groped and otherwise fucked, to a nebulous undefined threat.
• Can't fucking wait for 2018 - it's going to be an orange bloodbath!
• Can we get Michelle ready by 2020?

 

[Deepak]

I can write that up now.

• Holy shit, a super majority of Republicans will vote for anyone with an R next to their name
• Independents didn't buy him enough as a credible candidate
• Perhaps demonizing minorities and using code words should stop
• Jesus fucking Christ! The Tea Party has cost us the majority in the senate on multiple occasions and now the White House... time to destroy them!!!
• Holy fuck, did Paul Ryan lose the Speaker position while still having a majority in the House.
• What the fuck has Obama started?

That's one set of possible outcomes. Here's another:

• Maybe letting Debbie pick our nominee wasn't the best idea after all.
• We should have known that they weren't going to invest $200m and thirty years of their time for nothing!
• Orange is the new green.
• People prefer knowing they're going to be groped and otherwise fucked, to a nebulous undefined threat.
• Can't fucking wait for 2018 - it's going to be an orange bloodbath!
• Can we get Michelle ready by 2020?

I'd prefer if we could get Michelle ready by 20:20

 

[SLD]

Does anybody still want to argue that it's over?

This is going to be so fucking tight. If you are in Colorado or NC it's up to you.

SLD

 

[blastula]

Clinton does need CO, but she doesn't need NC, FL or OH. Trump needs all 3 of those and more.