• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

It ain't over yet

IMG_0915.PNG

This is today's snapshot on RCP from Florida. Note the late surge for Trump. Michael Moore may be right, Trump may be taking undecideds as just a way of saying fuck you to the rest of the country. Still he has a way to go.

For EV's Clinton can lose both Florida and Ohio ( where Trump is maintaining a steady lead) and still win by holding on to Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. That should give her 272 EV's. She's doing well in Virginia and I'd say he's toast there. Pennsylvania is closer but he's never been able to beat her there. Colorado though has gone back and forth. The only recent poll there had her up by two, within the margin of error. But that was a Republican pollster. I'd like to see more from there.

In the end I am cautiously optimistic that Clinton will win, and hopeful that it will be a landslide. But it ain't over.

SLD
 
IMG_0916.PNG
IMG_0917.PNG

Here is Nevada and Pennsylvania graphs showing late surges for Trump too. In North Carolina she's maintaining a small edge with both Candidates gaining. It may come down to turnout in North Carolina.

SLD
 
One thing to keep in mind about the polls, people are already voting.
 
Online polls seem to have had Clinton comfortably ahead.
Telephone polls, which are more reliable, seem to have it very close.
I think I saw a telephone poll from University of Southern California (?) which had Trump slightly ahead...?? And another telephone poll which had Clinton slightly ahead.

This is not dissimilar to what we saw with Brexit I think
 
There are some professional polls done online, but he's got it backwards. Trump does better in online polls than phone polls. The LAT poll is a tracking poll that uses the same pool of people over and over, which makes it useful for spotting trends, but it may be less useful for actual margins. It has some other quirks. How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages - The New York Times

If you want to get the best idea of the state of the race, you need to average ALL the polls, and not look at only the polls you like nor to discount any polls you don't like.
 
blastula said:
There are some professional polls done online, but he's got it backwards. Trump does better in online polls than phone polls.
Click to expand...
I saw two recent telephone polls and in each one Trump did considerably better than was being reported in the other polls I saw. The ones with Hillary WAY ahead. which have been common.

This is a telephone poll, I believe
http://www.latimes.com/nation/polit...ead-widens-in-daily-1473947034-htmlstory.html

I'd be very interested if you have any evidence to the contrary. No big deal if you don't but I'd be interested
 
Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election | FiveThirtyEight

As of Tuesday morning, Clinton led Trump by 6 percentage points and had a 79 percent chance of winning, according to our polls-only forecast. But running our polls-only model using only live-interview surveys, Clinton leads Trump by 7 points and has an 86 percent chance of winning. Running it with only nonlive-interview polls, Clinton leads Trump by 5 points and has a 71 percent chance of winning.
Click to expand...

The LAT poll is done online, but that's not necessarily a problem with it. Again, How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages - The New York Times

And see the LAT faq. Lots of people have questions about the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll; here are some answers - LA Times
 
blastula said:
Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election | FiveThirtyEight

As of Tuesday morning, Clinton led Trump by 6 percentage points and had a 79 percent chance of winning, according to our polls-only forecast. But running our polls-only model using only live-interview surveys, Clinton leads Trump by 7 points and has an 86 percent chance of winning. Running it with only nonlive-interview polls, Clinton leads Trump by 5 points and has a 71 percent chance of winning.
Click to expand...

The LAT poll is done online, but that's not necessarily a problem with it. Again, How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages - The New York Times

And see the LAT faq. Lots of people have questions about the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll; here are some answers - LA Times
Click to expand...

Yes, you're right. Thankk you. I wrongly thought it was a telephone poll. But their method had the same effect I think in that people can only vote once, and are randomly selected. Some online polls allow people to vote more than once
 
IMG_0919.PNG

Today's RCP of Florida shows her falling off a cliff. I just hope this doesn't spread to other states. Like I said, it's a long way from over. Even with early voting.
 
And does the impact of the latest FBI revelation make a difference? Maybe not. It's bullshit for one, and the effect will be over too quickly to impact the election.

Hopefully.

SLD
 
https://politicalwire.com/

[h=2] A Clinton-Trump Rematch In 2020? [/h] October 29, 2016By Taegan Goddard94 Comments
“Newt Gingrich, one of Donald Trump’s closest confidants and most visible boosters, on Friday raised the novel possibility of a Trump-Clinton rematch in 2020,” Politico reports.
Said Gingrich: “The challenge for everybody’s going to be, ‘What if he gets 48 or 49 percent?’ And what if he says: ‘You know, I like this campaign and stuff. I ain’t leaving’? There will then be a Trump Party.”


---

Shudder...
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://politicalwire.com/

[h=2] A Clinton-Trump Rematch In 2020? [/h] October 29, 2016By Taegan Goddard94 Comments
“Newt Gingrich, one of Donald Trump’s closest confidants and most visible boosters, on Friday raised the novel possibility of a Trump-Clinton rematch in 2020,” Politico reports.
Said Gingrich: “The challenge for everybody’s going to be, ‘What if he gets 48 or 49 percent?’ And what if he says: ‘You know, I like this campaign and stuff. I ain’t leaving’? There will then be a Trump Party.”


---

Shudder...
Click to expand...

That might be a good thing. Let Trump peel his basket of deplorables off to the alt-right wacko fringe, so the rest of us can have some kind of meaningful debate regarding the future of the country.
 
SLD said:
NBC is reporting a dead heat in Florida. Like I said, it ain't over.

SLD
Click to expand...
It is fucking over. Clinton will come close to sweeping the Battleground States.

- - - Updated - - -

Cheerful Charlie said:
https://politicalwire.com/

A Clinton-Trump Rematch In 2020?

October 29, 2016By Taegan Goddard94 Comments
“Newt Gingrich, one of Donald Trump’s closest confidants and most visible boosters, on Friday raised the novel possibility of a Trump-Clinton rematch in 2020,” Politico reports.
Said Gingrich: “The challenge for everybody’s going to be, ‘What if he gets 48 or 49 percent?’ And what if he says: ‘You know, I like this campaign and stuff. I ain’t leaving’? There will then be a Trump Party.”


---

Shudder...
Click to expand...
Trump will be 76.
 
SLD said:
NBC is reporting a dead heat in Florida. Like I said, it ain't over.

SLD
Click to expand...

Florida being the easiest to win of half a dozen must win states for Trump, that indicates a Clinton victory.

Now a reliable poll indicating a dead heat in Pennsylvania would make me nervous; but I'm not expecting to see one.
 
I don't know what to think about Joe and Jane American who support Trumpy.

Last evening I sat on our front porch and handed out candy to hundreds of trick-or-treaters. They were adorable. One kid - looked to be about 12 - noticed my Clinton/Kaine signs and exclaimed, "You're voting against Trump?" Before I could say a word this similarly aged girl says "I support Hillary," to which I added, "Me too."

I'm sure that among 12 year old white males Trump would win in a landslide of biblical proportions. He's a perfect fit for their way of not thinking.

That said, however, if there are enough 12-year-old white male thinking voters then Trump will be president. That's the way our system works.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom