Ford
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It ain't over yet
- Thread starter SLD
- Start date
SLD
Contributor
good point. And now the Cubs are about to win, which means a Democratic win since they're in the national league. Come on Cubs!
Or will that make voters in Cleveland who are democratic too depressed to vote?
SLD
ElectEngr
Member
[sarcasm]
This Just In
Alex Jones to report that Obama coerced MLB to get the Cubs to win the series before he leaves office....
[/sarcasm]
Later,
ElectEngr
This Just In
Alex Jones to report that Obama coerced MLB to get the Cubs to win the series before he leaves office....
[/sarcasm]
Later,
ElectEngr
SLD
Contributor
Well. The silver lining in being right is that it still isn't over. HRC can still pull this out.
SLD
SLD
Nevada is the state to watch today, as the majority of its total votes in the general election are cast in early voting, which ends today. And the current results show Clinton pretty far ahead.
This is important for a couple of reasons. Nevada has long been considered a toss-up state that could go either way, and despite only having 6 electoral votes, it almost always ends up being part of some "hypothetical" scenario in which Trump wins. But the problem is that the polls in Nevada are unreliable and tend to underestimate Democratic turnout, possibly because pollsters have a hard time reaching the Latino community there; in 2012 and some other state elections in the past several years, polls have found Democrats getting numbers several points below what they actually receive at the ballot box. This sort of innate error within the polls is something a lot of these analysts are at a loss to control for. But obviously, they could conceivably work in either party's favor.
It's all explained here at Nate Silver's website. His projections the past week or so have scared the shit out of more liberals than the Doomsday Clock, but it says that without Nevada, Trump's chances drop into the single digits. Here's a local blog with more details.
This is important for a couple of reasons. Nevada has long been considered a toss-up state that could go either way, and despite only having 6 electoral votes, it almost always ends up being part of some "hypothetical" scenario in which Trump wins. But the problem is that the polls in Nevada are unreliable and tend to underestimate Democratic turnout, possibly because pollsters have a hard time reaching the Latino community there; in 2012 and some other state elections in the past several years, polls have found Democrats getting numbers several points below what they actually receive at the ballot box. This sort of innate error within the polls is something a lot of these analysts are at a loss to control for. But obviously, they could conceivably work in either party's favor.
It's all explained here at Nate Silver's website. His projections the past week or so have scared the shit out of more liberals than the Doomsday Clock, but it says that without Nevada, Trump's chances drop into the single digits. Here's a local blog with more details.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
4 days to go! 4 days to go!
SLD
Contributor
Now RCP polls have her losing New Hampshire. That gives Trump a real path to 270. He doesn't need to pick up Colorado which is where I've been focusing. Clinton better pull out all the stops this weekend.
SLD
SLD
SLD
Contributor
You really do have a flare for the dramatic, guy - today's 538 update says she has 268 in the states where she's clearly ahead. If she wins any other state besides those it's in the bag. And as I said before, Nevada is a special case because it has a large latino population that are underrepresented in the polls. Early voting has Democrats way ahead statewide. Jon Ralston, far and away the leading authority on Nevada politics, says it's basically over there. Latino turnout has been huge and it's murdering Trump. Even more Latinos are expected to come out on Tuesday. And if Trump can't take Nevada he's got basically no chance of taking the White House.
Nate Silver and RCP don't seem to be doing a very good job of accounting for this information when predicting the odds for Nevada. RCP only looks at polls - they've been in wrong in Nevada several times - and 538 doesn't seem to be giving early voting the consideration it deserves. Giving Trump 50/50 odds there doesn't seem at all reasonable given the lead Democrats have already. In any event, all of the major election forecasters still have Clinton ahead, and all of them except 538 have her at well above 80% to win. And 538 is still giving Clinton 65%, which is a far cry from "losing." And I think they're massively overestimating Trump's chances in Nevada, without which his odds plummet. So really, stop with the doom and gloom already!
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SLD
Contributor
Yeah. I'll try. But it's hard right now. So hard. I hate that I was right as well as wrong. Clinton should've won this. She would've made an awesome President. Right now though I am really gloomy and will continue to be for quite some time. It I for one do not intend to go quietly into the night. I will fight this son of a bitch every way I can. I will not let him turn this country into a dictatorship.
SLD
Tristan Scott
Senior Member
re:It Ain't Over Yet.
It won't be over till December 18th.
But seriously, two years after Nixon was re-elected it was hard to find anyone who admitted they voted for him. I wonder how long it will take with Trump.
It won't be over till December 18th.
But seriously, two years after Nixon was re-elected it was hard to find anyone who admitted they voted for him. I wonder how long it will take with Trump.
SLD
Contributor
yes, but that was before facebook. I know who voted for Trump. And I will be the first to laugh at them when they are out of a job in the coming apocalypse.
SLD
SLD
Contributor
Well, here we are again, four years later. And once again, we’re hearing how Trump is toast. Break out the Champagne. What the pols seem to indicate in 2016 is that Clinton took a nose dive in the final weeks in several key states. But why is unclear. But everyone was saying Pennsylvania was in the bag for her and thus she’d eke out a victory. We weren’t even looking at MI and WI.
In the end, it could’ve really been an economic issue. The economy in 2016 was struggling. It barely was growing that year. Had it not been for a few key sectors, we would’ve been in a recession. Thus she lost key states because they were in a recession and the voters were blaming the party in the White House.
Right now, the situation is vastly different. The economy is improving from the disaster earlier this year. Trump is running on his earlier economic performance. He’s the guy who can bring it back. We’ll see. Actually, hopefully not.
I just see a virtual repeat of 2016. Barr and FBI will announce investigations into Biden again, just to sway the results. There will be an October surprise on COVID, the polls are going to tighten, and probably will tilt towards Trump by late October. I think the Electoral Vote will be closer, and Biden will win the popular vote, but in the end, I see Trump pulling this one out again. Maybe not. Hope springs eternal.
I will however be working to stop this. It’s not enough to vote. If you are against Trump, you need to get actively involved in key swing states. You need to donate money. You need to work on. People who don’t vote in places like NC, PA, MI, FL and OH and get them involved in politics. Too much apathy out there, especially in African American communities.
In the end, it could’ve really been an economic issue. The economy in 2016 was struggling. It barely was growing that year. Had it not been for a few key sectors, we would’ve been in a recession. Thus she lost key states because they were in a recession and the voters were blaming the party in the White House.
Right now, the situation is vastly different. The economy is improving from the disaster earlier this year. Trump is running on his earlier economic performance. He’s the guy who can bring it back. We’ll see. Actually, hopefully not.
I just see a virtual repeat of 2016. Barr and FBI will announce investigations into Biden again, just to sway the results. There will be an October surprise on COVID, the polls are going to tighten, and probably will tilt towards Trump by late October. I think the Electoral Vote will be closer, and Biden will win the popular vote, but in the end, I see Trump pulling this one out again. Maybe not. Hope springs eternal.
I will however be working to stop this. It’s not enough to vote. If you are against Trump, you need to get actively involved in key swing states. You need to donate money. You need to work on. People who don’t vote in places like NC, PA, MI, FL and OH and get them involved in politics. Too much apathy out there, especially in African American communities.
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
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Likewise with W. In 2007, you'd swear he just appeared from out of nowhere and was just accepted as President in 2001.
fromderinside
Mazzie Daius
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- optimist
I believe the american public is ready to take the jack boots away from the authoritarians. Guns in the hands of the impatient will, through the horror of their excess, fall to the will of the rational.
Elixir
Made in America
I am going with fromder for several reasons.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon whose optimism is rarely on display.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon, so he is in my demographic.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon, so he has seen some things.
Personally, today I am taking a break from wondering what is going to happen. I'm celebrating the death of the Republican Party.
Whether annihilated by electoral defeat or by "winning" a third world shithole of corporate and political serfdoms ruled over by an autocratic crime family,
it looks virtually certain that the Republican Party that existed from post-war 20th century to 2016, is dead and gone.
The Party Platform is basically "Heiil Trumpf!" and the 1930s.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon whose optimism is rarely on display.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon, so he is in my demographic.
* he's an elderly curmudgeon, so he has seen some things.
Personally, today I am taking a break from wondering what is going to happen. I'm celebrating the death of the Republican Party.
Whether annihilated by electoral defeat or by "winning" a third world shithole of corporate and political serfdoms ruled over by an autocratic crime family,
it looks virtually certain that the Republican Party that existed from post-war 20th century to 2016, is dead and gone.
The Party Platform is basically "Heiil Trumpf!" and the 1930s.