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Krysten Sinema Leaves Democratic Party

lpetrich

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Sinema party switch jumpstarts Arizona's 2024 Senate battle - POLITICO
Kyrsten Sinema’s Friday party switch has jolted her home state’s 2024 Senate race to life far earlier than expected, raising questions from Capitol Hill to Phoenix about the risk that Democrats could hand the GOP a must-win seat.

The now-independent senator wouldn’t say in an interview with POLITICO whether she’ll seek reelection in two years. Still, multiple Democrats see Sinema’s move as an attempt to shore up her electoral standing — by both avoiding a primary and trying to box out her likely chief opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

“Does it dilute us? Does it draw away from us? Yes, absolutely,” Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said, adding that he’s already personally assured Gallego of support in any 2024 Senate fight but also warned him to take Sinema seriously. “Anybody who underestimates her is foolish.”

Multiple people close to Gallego, however, said they do not expect he will back down.
About her campaigning,
While she’s always been a strong fundraiser, she would lack party resources — like a ground game — that are critical for voter turnout, particularly in a sprawling state like Arizona. Republicans in the state, even if some do support her, would not be expected to assist with that.

National Democratic forces aren’t rushing to take a position on Sinema’s departure, nor are they committing to work against her. Privately, some operatives said they’re waiting for cues from party leadership on how to proceed.
KS started out as an activist, so that lack of a ground game shows how much she's sold out.
 

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Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide - January 26, 2022
KS's approval ratings are way down, and she would likely be crushed in a Democratic primary.

Back to Politico.
Sinema would be a rare formidable independent candidate if she runs, positioning herself to capture a significant share of the centrist vote from both parties. But she could be particularly attractive to moderate Republicans, if GOP primary voters continue down the path of choosing nominees who prove off-putting to general election voters.

“We just saw all the MAGA candidates lose, which is a good sign for her,” Coughlin said. “I think what she’s doing is rolling the dice on the continuing evolution of the Arizona electorate.”

Poll: Only 8 percent of Arizona Democrats view Kyrsten Sinema favorably. - Slate - Jan 21, 2022 - "Just 8 percent of her party’s voters view the senator favorably. What could she be thinking?"

Democrats liked KS until early 2021, when she started to obstruct Democratic legislation. "You rarely see this rapid a turning-on-one’s-own in party politics. Over the past year, in Civiqs polling, Sinema went from a 50 percent net favorable rating among Arizona Dems to a 72 percent net unfavorable rating."

"The two major inflection points on the chart coincide with Sinema’s vote in March 2021 against including a minimum wage hike in the COVID relief bill and her May 2021 decision to skip the Senate’s vote on establishing a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol."

The weird thing here is that Sinema, who could stand to lose a Democratic primary if she runs for re-election in 2024, doesn’t seem to care. Usually, legislators’ positions on issues are informed by some combination of their own beliefs, the interests of their donors, and those of their constituents. So what are we to make of the fact that, at a crucial turning point for U.S. democracy and a record low point in her standing among the people who put her in office, Sinema opted to derail the Democrats’ voting rights legislation? Does she have some deeply held personal attachment to the filibuster, an institution whose history she can’t even get right?

...
And, anyway, Sinema’s votes can’t be explained by the ideological makeup of Arizona’s general electorate: She’s siding with the GOP way more often than she needs to—and according to Civiqs’ tracking, she’s even 20 points under water with independents, who flipped on her in early 2021 around the time she signaled her opposition to raising the minimum wage in the COVID package. Among Republicans, she has a net favorable rating, which jumped after she missed the Jan. 6 commission vote. But she wouldn’t last a second in a GOP primary. The Arizona Republican Party, which is now fully consumed by pro-Trump conspiracy theories and far-right extremism, would never cast its lot with a centrist former Dem.

One often-repeated theory is that Sinema simply doesn’t intend to run for office again and may see her future in lobbying. But U.S. senators don’t usually dash for that door after just a single term in office. Recently, journalist Amy Siskind claimed that Sinema hopes to run for president in 2024 as a straight-down-the-middle candidate, and she’s establishing a legislative history to back herself up. It seems almost too bizarre to be true—but then again, so does the rest of her behavior.
 

lpetrich

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Kyrsten Sinema approval rating: The Arizona senator is equally unpopular with everyone. - Slate - Sept 22, 2022
Bipartisanship has always been important to Kyrsten Sinema, the senator from Arizona. Though she’s a Democrat, she has styled her career, it is often said, after “maverick” John McCain and prides herself on her frequent partnerships with Republicans. Her social media accounts and official statements often tout that she’s working “across the aisle,” trying to bring both sides together.

Well: mission accomplished!
Her disapproval margins are min 10%, median 17%, max 27%.

Sinema’s Independence Costs Democratic Support | OH Predictive Insights – Phoenix AZ - March 22nd, 2021 - about half-half.

Sinema Unpopular in AZ After Filibuster Stance - PROGRESS ARIZONA % - March 31, 2021 - declined: "Sinema’s stubborn refusal to eliminate the filibuster and her exaggerated vote against the inclusion of the $15 minimum wage increase in the American Rescue Plan marked a notable shift in Sinema’s popularity."

Democratic Voters Drive Decline in Sinema’s Popularity in Arizona - Morning Consult - October 4, 2021
  • 46% of Arizona Democrats approved of Sinema’s job performance in the third quarter of 2021, down 21 points from the first quarter.
  • 42% of all Arizona voters approve of her, compared with 48% who said the same earlier this year.
  • By comparison, sentiment toward West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, the chamber’s other high-profile centrist Democrat, has been less volatile.
 

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Top progressive firm drops Sinema as a client - POLITICO - 12/09/2022 - "Authentic has dropped the Arizona senator after she announced she was leaving the Democratic Party."

A staff mutiny? ‘I am doing the devils work’ — Staff at Dem firm revolt over work for Sinema - POLITICO - 02/03/2022 - "Inside Authentic, employees have aired frustrations over the contract the firm has with the Arizona Democrat. Leadership hasn’t budged on it."

Back to the most recent one.
Authentic was founded in 2018 by veteran political consultant Mike Nellis, who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign. The firm’s work has included campaigns for President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Its clients also include Patients for Affordable Drugs and other organizations. Authentic’s website still lists Sinema on its roster as of mid-Friday.
 

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Rep. Ruben Gallego
Rep. Greg Stanton
Outgoing Governor Doug Ducey
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb
Rep. Andy Biggs
Rep. David Schweikert
 

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By party and willingness:
  • Democratic: Reps. Ruben Gallego, Greg Stanton
  • Republican: Pinal Cty Sheriff Mark Lamb, Reps. Andy Biggs, David Schweikert
  • Unwilling Republican: Kari Lake, Gov. Doug Ducey

"Civiqs found that Democrats already gave her a horrific 5-82 score even before she jumped ship. Republicans and independents, by contrast, gave her 25-45 and 25-56 ratings."

So KS could be a spoiler for the Republicans instead of the Democrats.
 

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Here is a political party for KS: the Libertarian Party. It claims to be economically right-wing and socially left-wing or at least left-leaning.

It is also good for her in being like her former party, the Green Party: a complete failure. The GP and the LP seem mainly to exist to support vanity Presidential runs. Neither party seems to have much of an apparat to support local or state or Congressional candidates. Nothing like what the Working Families Party has.
 

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Top progressive firm drops Sinema as a client - POLITICO - 12/09/2022 - "Authentic has dropped the Arizona senator after she announced she was leaving the Democratic Party."

A staff mutiny? ‘I am doing the devils work’ — Staff at Dem firm revolt over work for Sinema - POLITICO - 02/03/2022 - "Inside Authentic, employees have aired frustrations over the contract the firm has with the Arizona Democrat. Leadership hasn’t budged on it."

Back to the most recent one.
Authentic was founded in 2018 by veteran political consultant Mike Nellis, who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign. The firm’s work has included campaigns for President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Its clients also include Patients for Affordable Drugs and other organizations. Authentic’s website still lists Sinema on its roster as of mid-Friday.
I'm not sure what makes Authentic a "progressive firm"; they seem pretty loyal to the DNC usually, so this action is not surprising. Do they have any non-Democrat clients?
 

Politesse

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She needs to be replaced by an actual democrat.
Can't happen. Her victory was so slim, if any of her fans are still inclined to vote for her, it will split the "leftish" vote and hand her seat to a Republican. Which is a shame. She has frustrated me as often as everyone else, but I'll still take "inconsistently good" over "consistently compromised". She has certainly been a better Senator for Arizona than her predecessor, the empty suit known as Jeff Flake. I still can't believe Biden saw that useless gasbag and thought "ambassador".
 

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Kyrsten Sinema: I think I found the senator's side hustle. It's perfect. - "Last week, she ditched the Democrats. Perhaps this is her real passion?"

"It is 11 a.m. on a Tuesday, and I am exchanging Facebook messages with Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema about a lightly used pair of Badgley Mischka heels."

But would a sitting senator respond within seconds on a weekday morning to a message about her used heels? Would it be worth her time to photograph a pair of old shoes, write a sales listing, field inquiries from potential buyers, and arrange pickup logistics—all for just $65?

This is far from the only listing of secondhand clothes this user, “Kyrsten Sinema,” has posted.

“They’re beautiful shoes,” the user DMs me as I Venmo the money. “Enjoy them!”

The user is currently hawking—among other things—a $215 cycling ensemble, a $25 trucker hat, and a $150 stainless steel watch with a silicone strap. Within the past six weeks, she has offloaded a $150 fitness tracker ring, an $80 cycling jersey, and a $500 bicycle travel case. Over the past two years, and across at least five Facebook groups for athletes, she has listed several dozen personal items, including a $100 pair of sunglasses (“Just too big for my tiny head!!”), two $50 puffer jackets, three $75 pairs of high-heeled boots, a $75 cycling bib, a $60 Lululemon raincoat, several mesh tanks at $55 a pop ($20 off the current retail price), and multiple bikinis, priced between $60 and $70, that ranged from “never worn” to “in great condition.”
All on Facebook Marketplace.
But while Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has alienated the vast majority of Arizona Democrats and was polling underwater this fall with quite literally every demographic group in the state, Facebook Sinema remains, on Facebook Marketplace, a “highly rated” seller, with strong customer ratings related to Pricing, Punctuality, and Communication.
Then about her politics, how she went from being a talkative Green to a reclusive conservative Democrat, from a peace activist to a supporter of big military budgets. She seldom attends meetings of her fellow Democratic Senators, unlike the other two Independents.
Her bizarre fashion sense, which has gotten more outlandish and less coherent over time—candy-colored wigs, a ring that says “Fuck Off”—has further convoluted her public image.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's colorful wigs have meaning behind them - she wore a purple wig.

That's why some people do Kremlinology with KS's clothing - she gives us nothing else to work with. Also of such things as her winery internship a few years ago.

People like Tressie McMillan Cottom.
 

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Then about some of her recent transactions:
... Facebook Sinema posted a $175 winter cycling jacket and two-piece cycling outfit whose pattern, she wrote, evokes “all the Burberry feels.”

... Facebook Sinema posted a listing for a $150 GPS bike computer.

... Facebook Sinema visited multiple Facebook groups to post listings for a brand-new $85 bike saddle and a $215 cycling onesie.

... Facebook Sinema listed an $80 cycling jersey in three Facebook groups around 12:30 p.m.

... Facebook Sinema listed that same cycling jersey in a fourth group.
As she was active in the Senate, voting on various bills and confirmations.

It’s a fascinating contradiction. As a famously mercurial member of a Senate majority without a single vote to spare, for the past two years Sinema has had the power to make or break her former party’s agenda. She has used that power to quash a number of Democratic priorities since Joe Biden took office, including voting rights legislation and raising taxes on corporations and the ultra-wealthy. Even Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, was more cooperative.

But all the while—if Facebook Sinema is indeed the senator—she has been approaching a separate pursuit with reliability, humility, rigor, and patience. For more than a year now, Facebook Sinema has been trying to offload a high-end Cervélo racing bicycle that, according to one of several posts about the bike, “has been sitting idle since late March 2021 (thanks, covid).” Every few months, she’ll repost the listing in Facebook groups such as “Tri Girls Got Gear,” “Tri ‘n Sell It,” or “SteveBay,” a Phoenix-based page for sales of athletic gear (like eBay, but from a founder named Steve). The bike was first listed at $6,500 in 2021, but Facebook Sinema has since reduced the price to $5,500. Over three days this September—including Sept. 20, the day she hosted a telephone town hall with AARP Arizona—she posted the bike in several Facebook groups, with the offer to “remove Betty Squad decals upon request (though they look pretty badass).” In other words, Facebook Sinema is impressively consistent.
KS's staff will neither confirm or deny that KS is indeed Facebook KS.
 

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Athletic pastimes of various kinds have distinguished Sen. Sinema among her peers in Washington from the beginning. In 2013, while serving in the House of Representatives, Sinema became the first sitting member of Congress to finish an Ironman triathlon, and she has since completed others, including Ironman races in New Zealand and France in 2019. (She drew some criticism for missing several Senate votes to join the New Zealand race.) She also runs ultramarathons and regular ones, including the Boston Marathon in 2022.

Photos from some of these athletic events show the senator wearing racing ensembles by one of her favorite brands: Betty Designs, a California-based company that pitches itself with the line “We thrive on sweat + live for fashion.” Sinema has competed alongside members of the “BettySquad”—women dressed in matching outfits from the company—and appears in at least one photo on the brand’s website, which explains that its skull-and-butterfly logo is “built on the concept that women can be both strong + beautiful. #BadassIsBeautiful.”

Facebook Sinema’s Marketplace shop is likewise filled with Betty Designs gear, including a $150 cycling kit emblazoned with the Betty slogan “Do Epic Shit.” Photos of the senator from a 2019 marathon and a race in D.C. show her wearing a pink NASCAR-themed Betty tank top; in October, Facebook Sinema listed it, or an identical garment, for $50, in “used–like new” condition.
Then on such sales as a $600 treadmill marked down from $1,000, and a $3,500 road-bike frame. What about that frame could possibly make it cost that much? Shock absorbers? That's far too much for a rigid frame like in most of the bikes that I've ever seen.

She also unloads cheap stuff, stuff that may not seem worth the trouble of putting out ads for selling those items.
She is selling a water bottle—“used once (at the 2022 Boston Marathon!)”—for $20, about half the retail price. Facebook Sinema also once listed a used neon-yellow “Do Epic Shit” hat for $30, plus $7 for shipping. A brand new “Do Epic Shit” hat from Betty Designs currently costs $29.99.
 

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What else can we infer about Facebook Sinema? Only an extraordinarily frugal consumer would spend any fraction of her day selling and shipping a $20 water bottle if she earned about $200,000 a year, as Sen. Sinema does. Her wares for sale also indicate an orientation toward pragmatism over sentimentality: Facebook Sinema would rather have $50 than the shirt she was wearing when she qualified for the Boston Marathon. The fact that some items have been listed for months without a price reduction suggests that Facebook Sinema is dogged, willing to wait for what she believes she deserves. And also that she does not lack storage space.
Or else she doesn't like the thought of letting a good water bottle go to waste. Kremlinology with what she offers for sale.
Oh, and wherever Facebook Sinema takes the photos of her products—her home, maybe?—we know, based on a listing of a set of bicycle wheels, that it contains a throw pillow, trimmed with pompoms, that says “hope” in an Etsy bridesmaid font.
Kremlinology with home furnishings.
 

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Kyrsten Sinema: I think I found the senator's side hustle. It's perfect. - "Last week, she ditched the Democrats. Perhaps this is her real passion?"

"It is 11 a.m. on a Tuesday, and I am exchanging Facebook messages with Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema about a lightly used pair of Badgley Mischka heels."

But would a sitting senator respond within seconds on a weekday morning to a message about her used heels? Would it be worth her time to photograph a pair of old shoes, write a sales listing, field inquiries from potential buyers, and arrange pickup logistics—all for just $65?

This is far from the only listing of secondhand clothes this user, “Kyrsten Sinema,” has posted.

“They’re beautiful shoes,” the user DMs me as I Venmo the money. “Enjoy them!”

The user is currently hawking—among other things—a $215 cycling ensemble, a $25 trucker hat, and a $150 stainless steel watch with a silicone strap. Within the past six weeks, she has offloaded a $150 fitness tracker ring, an $80 cycling jersey, and a $500 bicycle travel case. Over the past two years, and across at least five Facebook groups for athletes, she has listed several dozen personal items, including a $100 pair of sunglasses (“Just too big for my tiny head!!”), two $50 puffer jackets, three $75 pairs of high-heeled boots, a $75 cycling bib, a $60 Lululemon raincoat, several mesh tanks at $55 a pop ($20 off the current retail price), and multiple bikinis, priced between $60 and $70, that ranged from “never worn” to “in great condition.”
All on Facebook Marketplace.
But while Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has alienated the vast majority of Arizona Democrats and was polling underwater this fall with quite literally every demographic group in the state, Facebook Sinema remains, on Facebook Marketplace, a “highly rated” seller, with strong customer ratings related to Pricing, Punctuality, and Communication.
Then about her politics, how she went from being a talkative Green to a reclusive conservative Democrat, from a peace activist to a supporter of big military budgets. She seldom attends meetings of her fellow Democratic Senators, unlike the other two Independents.
Her bizarre fashion sense, which has gotten more outlandish and less coherent over time—candy-colored wigs, a ring that says “Fuck Off”—has further convoluted her public image.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's colorful wigs have meaning behind them - she wore a purple wig.

That's why some people do Kremlinology with KS's clothing - she gives us nothing else to work with. Also of such things as her winery internship a few years ago.

People like Tressie McMillan Cottom.
People don't get Arizona, do they?
 

lpetrich

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Kyrsten Sinema's athletic interests:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema makes another big Ironman improvement back in 2019
Sinema, 43, completed Ironman Arizona in 11 hours, 54 minutes, 9 seconds on Sunday, over an hour faster than her time at Ironman New Zealand in March.

She finished 24th in her age division, 91st among women and 515th overall.

She was faster in each segment of the race in Tempe than in New Zealand and in particular on the 112-mile bike. Her splits were 1:27.23 (2.4-mile swim), 5:58.41 (bike) and 4:15.10 (26.2-mile run). Her splits in New Zealand were 1:28.14 (swim), 6:50.42 (bike) and 4:27.08 (run) for 12:59.57 overall.

Sinema also finished the 2013 Ironman Arizona (15:12.33) and 2015 Ironman World Championships (15:02.47).
Thus being an "Ironwoman". :D

 Ironman Triathlon - a 2.4-mile (3.9 km) swim, then a 112-mile (180.2 km) bicycle ride, and then a 26.22-mile (42.2 km) marathon (long-distance run).

One must finish the swim in 2h 20m, the swim and the ride in 10h - 10h 30m, and all three in 16h - 17h. KS has done so at least four times.
 

Politesse

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People don't get Arizona, do they?
What do you mean?
Just that Sinema makes sense there. She's exactly the kind of politician that would appeal to Arizonans, who are fiercely libertarian before they are anything else. One should expect weird Republicans and weird Democrats from Arizona.
 

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From Raw Story

....
Just over 24 hours after announcing his 2024 U.S. Senate candidacy for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego set multiple fundraising records and made clear the vast difference between his approach to public service and that of his opponent.
Gallego announced he has already raised more than $1 million, bringing in more than 27,000 donations since launching his campaign Monday morning.

The congressman broke Sen. Mark Kelly's (D-Ariz.) previous 24-hour fundraising record in the state—doing so in just eight hours—....
.....

You can bet the farm massive support and $$$ will go to Gallego up to 2024.
 

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From Raw Story

....
Just over 24 hours after announcing his 2024 U.S. Senate candidacy for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego set multiple fundraising records and made clear the vast difference between his approach to public service and that of his opponent.
Gallego announced he has already raised more than $1 million, bringing in more than 27,000 donations since launching his campaign Monday morning.

The congressman broke Sen. Mark Kelly's (D-Ariz.) previous 24-hour fundraising record in the state—doing so in just eight hours—....
.....

You can bet the farm massive support and $$$ will go to Gallego up to 2024.
Now we know why Sinema went independent.
 

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From Raw Story

....
Just over 24 hours after announcing his 2024 U.S. Senate candidacy for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego set multiple fundraising records and made clear the vast difference between his approach to public service and that of his opponent.
Gallego announced he has already raised more than $1 million, bringing in more than 27,000 donations since launching his campaign Monday morning.

The congressman broke Sen. Mark Kelly's (D-Ariz.) previous 24-hour fundraising record in the state—doing so in just eight hours—....
.....

You can bet the farm massive support and $$$ will go to Gallego up to 2024.
If it helps DeSantis get an R Senate in 2024, I'm for it.
 

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Cut the IRS and make every body pay a 30% sales tax. Cut Social Security and Medicare. McCarthy and the GOP are making sure the GOP loses big in 2024.
 
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