Minimum Wage Study - MW Does Not Kill Jobs

[bilby]

I wonder why supermarkets are installing more self check outs and fast food places have those tablets to take your order. The ramifications for the increase in minimum wage for fast food workers will become apparent pretty soon.

It probably wouldn't matter how little the employees are paid, if mechanization lowers cost, wouldn't management see that as the path forward?

It's a balance between the cost of the humans and the cost of the machines. The more humans cost the more it favors machines.

And the more machines are used, the more apparent it becomes that the humans were doing stuff in addition to the obvious, and that that stuff was massively undervalued by the bosses (and likely by the workers themselves), hence the ongoing problem of the workers being underpaid.

A machine to check out groceries is cheaper than a human clerk; But it's not cheaper to have the machine plus a human security guard, plus a human customer enquiry answerer, plus a store psychologist to listen sympathetically to the customer's woes...

The stuff a clerk does is not necessarily only the stuff in their job description, and they're adding a lot of value beyond the mere scanning of goods and collecting of payments.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Thus our derived value for minimum wage unemployment has no significant digits at all.

Could you explain how this isn't just a tortuous way of saying "Therefore changes to minimum wage can have no significant effect on employment"?

Clearly you do not grasp the compelling logic behind "The effect is not measurable so it must be what I say it is."

I'm not saying what it is. I'm saying that the thread title is saying the value is zero--and I'm showing that we can't even show it's anything close to zero.

Which means you are saying IT IS negative.

I am saying it's indeterminate.

So, you agree that it in a particular situation, a specific increase in the minimum wage might increase employment?

Possible, but the only data point we have shows a decrease. A system in which raising it sometimes produces an increase and sometimes a decrease is a considerably more complex system than where the relationship is more linear. No data has been presented to suggest that we need such complexity--apply Occam's razor.

No. You just insist that ALL the other data points are "invalid".

This is not the same thing, no matter how many times you repeat it. You really should just be religious....

 

[Elixir]

Using Congressional Budget Office (CBO) methodology, economists of Miami and Trinity University found that just one in 10 of those affected by a $12 minimum wage are single parents with children. A majority of those affected are either second or third-earners in households where the average family income exceeds 50k/yr.

@Loren Pechtel do you imagine that this is/was the case in AmSam?

@Loren Pechtel ?

I am saying YOUR only data point is "invalid". Prove me wrong.

 

[Elixir]

I don’t know how to convert this to $$ saved in property loss, LE cost reduction, court cost savings, incarceration savings etc.
My gut says it’s significant. Probably more than the cost of the MW increase.

 

[EricH]

Rather than wisely investing it in stuff that real people think they should spend it on, like building a portfolio of assets, such as real estate or stocks and shares, so they can be productive members of society who add value, by telling people what to do, or by simply owning things; don't have to spend the rest of their lives in poverty, and have the financial resources to insulate themselves from the vagaries of their personal firtunes.

Nothing wrong with saving money and investing it in assets that grow over time. I started with nothing but have secured the financial future of the next 3 or 4 generations of my family (at least) through my efforts. I wish more people could achieve what I have achieved.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I just watched an interesting John Oliver episode.

I've never been in a Dollar store, but some of the scenes shown are unbelievable. One store manager can't put away the fresh milk that just arrived, because the path to the storage room refrigerator is completely blocked with boxes. Another store has only one employee working: the customers end up helping the employee operate the store. Birds infest a third store and shit on merchandise; upper management tells the store to ignore the problem "because the birds aren't stealing anything." It would be easy to watch and think "So badly managed; surely they're on a path to bankruptcy." Yet in fact, the two Dollar store companies make several billions in annual profits!

I'm not sure what thread is best to post this interesting YouTube, but it relates to the growing disparity between rich America and poor America, which is a theme of this thread.

Recalled WanaBana puree still on Dollar Tree shelves - US FDA

The WanaBana Apple Cinnamon Puree, a product potentially contaminated with lead, was still being sold at Dollar Tree stores despite a recall that began last month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Still on the shelf. Strewn about the floor. In boxes, somewhere, maybe. Will get our single store worker right on it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder why supermarkets are installing more self check outs and fast food places have those tablets to take your order. The ramifications for the increase in minimum wage for fast food workers will become apparent pretty soon.

It probably wouldn't matter how little the employees are paid, if mechanization lowers cost, wouldn't management see that as the path forward?

It's a balance between the cost of the humans and the cost of the machines. The more humans cost the more it favors machines.

Not when those in positions of power, governments, industrialists, business leaders, etc, tip the balance heavily in favour of their own interests - maximizing profit - at the expense of the average worker.

You're playing fanatic here, looking first to ideology before considering facts.

And if they don't seek to maximize profit they'll just get run over by some other company that starts up with a better balance.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder why supermarkets are installing more self check outs and fast food places have those tablets to take your order. The ramifications for the increase in minimum wage for fast food workers will become apparent pretty soon.

It probably wouldn't matter how little the employees are paid, if mechanization lowers cost, wouldn't management see that as the path forward?

It's a balance between the cost of the humans and the cost of the machines. The more humans cost the more it favors machines.

And the more machines are used, the more apparent it becomes that the humans were doing stuff in addition to the obvious, and that that stuff was massively undervalued by the bosses (and likely by the workers themselves), hence the ongoing problem of the workers being underpaid.

A machine to check out groceries is cheaper than a human clerk; But it's not cheaper to have the machine plus a human security guard, plus a human customer enquiry answerer, plus a store psychologist to listen sympathetically to the customer's woes...

The stuff a clerk does is not necessarily only the stuff in their job description, and they're adding a lot of value beyond the mere scanning of goods and collecting of payments.

The model around here has 4-6 machines with one person filling the rest of the roles.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Possible, but the only data point we have shows a decrease. A system in which raising it sometimes produces an increase and sometimes a decrease is a considerably more complex system than where the relationship is more linear. No data has been presented to suggest that we need such complexity--apply Occam's razor.

No. You just insist that ALL the other data points are "invalid".

This is not the same thing, no matter how many times you repeat it. You really should just be religious....

All other data points have zero digits of precision. They're invalid.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

View attachment 44741

I don’t know how to convert this to $$ saved in property loss, LE cost reduction, court cost savings, incarceration savings etc.
My gut says it’s significant. Probably more than the cost of the MW increase.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your chart more carefully. Yes, that last one is associated with a decrease. But previous to that two appear to have no effect and two have an increase. Property crime has one substantial increase, two small declines and two no effect.

That chart does not show a crime benefit from MW increases. If it shows anything it's showing that it causes crime--but I very much doubt the effect is big enough to pass a p-test.

 

[DBT]

I wonder why supermarkets are installing more self check outs and fast food places have those tablets to take your order. The ramifications for the increase in minimum wage for fast food workers will become apparent pretty soon.

It probably wouldn't matter how little the employees are paid, if mechanization lowers cost, wouldn't management see that as the path forward?

It's a balance between the cost of the humans and the cost of the machines. The more humans cost the more it favors machines.

Not when those in positions of power, governments, industrialists, business leaders, etc, tip the balance heavily in favour of their own interests - maximizing profit - at the expense of the average worker.

You're playing fanatic here, looking first to ideology before considering facts.

And if they don't seek to maximize profit they'll just get run over by some other company that starts up with a better balance.

It's basic business. To profit is the primary purpose of a business. It's not a charity, It's not a humanitarian enterprise. CEO's, executives, etc, are rewarded handsomely for generating a profit, and often regardless.

 

[Swammerdami]

Look at your chart more carefully. Yes, that last one is associated with a decrease. But previous to that two appear to have no effect and two have an increase. Property crime has one substantial increase, two small declines and two no effect.

That chart does not show a crime benefit from MW increases. If it shows anything it's showing that it causes crime--but I very much doubt the effect is big enough to pass a p-test.

The alleged correlation shown by that graph looks like a joke to me. I could show statistics that my sex life was most exciting during certain times that a Republican was in the White House. Does this mean I should hope a GOPster wins the Big Chair next November?

But more generally:
Loren almost always comes down on the side of corporations and the "free market" in these discussions. That would be fine -- we're mostly fans of Adam Smith here, and "capitalism" is a major cause of the advance to the huge levels of economic activity mankind "enjoys" today -- BUT economic issues are NOT as simplistic as blind adherents to the "Market's Magic" believe.

I am more "conservative" than most of the posters here; and have mixed feelings about minimum wage. Denmark has much less income inequality than the U.S. has, and it achieves that without a statutory minimum wage.

BUT economic issues are just complex. Do NOT approach them with blinders. Adam Smith himself warned against monopolies; yet some of us have trouble understanding that much of corporate America acts as oligopoly (despite that formal proofs of monopolization are non-trivial).

Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I cannot correct all mistakes in this post; I'm just trying to wake us all up to economic complexity! "Freedom free markets freedom freedom" is the rant of Trumpists, and NOT the reasoning of intelligent economic thinkers.

 

[bilby]

I wonder why supermarkets are installing more self check outs and fast food places have those tablets to take your order. The ramifications for the increase in minimum wage for fast food workers will become apparent pretty soon.

It probably wouldn't matter how little the employees are paid, if mechanization lowers cost, wouldn't management see that as the path forward?

It's a balance between the cost of the humans and the cost of the machines. The more humans cost the more it favors machines.

And the more machines are used, the more apparent it becomes that the humans were doing stuff in addition to the obvious, and that that stuff was massively undervalued by the bosses (and likely by the workers themselves), hence the ongoing problem of the workers being underpaid.

A machine to check out groceries is cheaper than a human clerk; But it's not cheaper to have the machine plus a human security guard, plus a human customer enquiry answerer, plus a store psychologist to listen sympathetically to the customer's woes...

The stuff a clerk does is not necessarily only the stuff in their job description, and they're adding a lot of value beyond the mere scanning of goods and collecting of payments.

The model around here has 4-6 machines with one person filling the rest of the roles.

And the stores are getting robbed blind, while customers hate them and will go out of their way to find places with fully staffed checkouts.

That suggests that the model only works in the limited imaginations of managers who don't get off their arses and go talk to their customers.

And the winding back of this marvellous, inspiring, and innovative initiative suggests that even those managers have been forced to take notice when costs soar and revenues plummet, because practically the only people who genuinely want to go through the automated checkouts are thieves.

 

[Elixir]

View attachment 44741

I don’t know how to convert this to $$ saved in property loss, LE cost reduction, court cost savings, incarceration savings etc.
My gut says it’s significant. Probably more than the cost of the MW increase.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your chart more carefully. Yes, that last one is associated with a decrease. But previous to that two appear to have no effect and two have an increase. Property crime has one substantial increase, two small declines and two no effect.

That chart does not show a crime benefit from MW increases. If it shows anything it's showing that it causes crime--but I very much doubt the effect is big enough to pass a p-test.

Deny it all you want Loren - the evidence is that MW reduces both property and violent crime.

More education, more job opportunities, school enrichment activities, and a basic living wage are among the factors listed in the study. “Higher wages for low-skilled workers reduce both property and violent crime, as well as crime among adolescents,” the authors write. “The impact of wages on crime is substantial … a 10 percent increase in wages for non-college educated men results in approximately a 10 to 20 percent reduction in crime rates.” More concretely, the Council calculates that raising the minimum wage to $12 by 2020 “would result in a 3 to 5 percent crime decrease (250,000 to 510,000 crimes) and a societal benefit of $8 to $17 billion dollars.”

This is a repeating theme. I also googled up a bunch of “Raising the MW increases crime” articles, but when I google the sources they’re from all right wing extremist “lock em all up” sources. (The usual RW solution to all things crime-related.)

 

[laughing dog]

Possible, but the only data point we have shows a decrease. A system in which raising it sometimes produces an increase and sometimes a decrease is a considerably more complex system than where the relationship is more linear. No data has been presented to suggest that we need such complexity--apply Occam's razor.

No. You just insist that ALL the other data points are "invalid".

This is not the same thing, no matter how many times you repeat it. You really should just

All other data points have zero digits of precision. They're invalid.

Your double standard ( my example is the only one is valid) does not become true via repetition.

 

[bilby]

right wing extremist “lock em all up” sources. (The usual RW solution to all things crime-related.)

To be fair, this is a slight improvement from the old "hang em all" solution.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...gainst-the-technofuturist-tide?ref=biztoc.com

Since some of you mentioned the automatic checkouts, I thought I'd add this. There are many big chains that are rethinking this and bringing back real humans to check people out. Publix, my favorite grocery store has never used automatic checkout, at least not in the Atlanta area. It's an employee owned store and it seems to do just fine. The idea that the minimum wage is causing a loss of jobs is insane, especially these days when we don't have enough people to even fill all the jobs that pay less than 20 bucks an hour in the US. Even, school bus drivers in Decatur, Georgia are going to be paid over 25 bucks an hour soon, or so I've read in the AJC. The current federal minimum wage is 7.25 an hour. Nobody is going to work for that and nobody has to as the lowest pay I've seen in my town is 11 dollars and hour and they can't get enough workers. The problem isn't the minimum wage. The problem, at least in the US, is that we have a shortage of workers to do these jobs.

British supermarket chain Booths is scrapping its self-service machines and replacing them with living, breathing, talking, thinking human cashiers. Hooray! In a world that seems to leap, minute by minute, from one dystopian scenario to another, this is happy news.

Even better is that it’s not just Britain that’s trading in the automated misery chant of “unexpected items in the bagging area” for a trumpet of hope. CNN reports that major American chains including Costco, Walmart and Wegmans are also rethinking the loveless use of machines that can not tell an avocado from a banana no matter how loud you yell with frustration at it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

View attachment 44741

I don’t know how to convert this to $$ saved in property loss, LE cost reduction, court cost savings, incarceration savings etc.
My gut says it’s significant. Probably more than the cost of the MW increase.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your chart more carefully. Yes, that last one is associated with a decrease. But previous to that two appear to have no effect and two have an increase. Property crime has one substantial increase, two small declines and two no effect.

That chart does not show a crime benefit from MW increases. If it shows anything it's showing that it causes crime--but I very much doubt the effect is big enough to pass a p-test.

Deny it all you want Loren - the evidence is that MW reduces both property and violent crime.

More education, more job opportunities, school enrichment activities, and a basic living wage are among the factors listed in the study. “Higher wages for low-skilled workers reduce both property and violent crime, as well as crime among adolescents,” the authors write. “The impact of wages on crime is substantial … a 10 percent increase in wages for non-college educated men results in approximately a 10 to 20 percent reduction in crime rates.” More concretely, the Council calculates that raising the minimum wage to $12 by 2020 “would result in a 3 to 5 percent crime decrease (250,000 to 510,000 crimes) and a societal benefit of $8 to $17 billion dollars.”

This is a repeating theme. I also googled up a bunch of “Raising the MW increases crime” articles, but when I google the sources they’re from all right wing extremist “lock em all up” sources. (The usual RW solution to all things crime-related.)

Just look at your chart. It doesn't show what you claim it shows.

I'm not saying it increases crime--I'm saying there's no useful correlation in your chart.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Possible, but the only data point we have shows a decrease. A system in which raising it sometimes produces an increase and sometimes a decrease is a considerably more complex system than where the relationship is more linear. No data has been presented to suggest that we need such complexity--apply Occam's razor.

No. You just insist that ALL the other data points are "invalid".

This is not the same thing, no matter how many times you repeat it. You really should just

All other data points have zero digits of precision. They're invalid.

Your double standard ( my example is the only one is valid) does not become true via repetition.

Nobody has ever addressed the zero digits of precision issue.

 

[DBT]

It's a Red Herring.