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Nevada Cactuses

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Derec

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The third contest of this primary season is upon us.
The recent polling has consistently seen Bernie in firm lead, but there is much uncertainty over the rest of the positions, with those below Sanders hovering around 15% or worse and thus are in danger of elimination in many of the individual caucuses/precincts.
Two polls were released on Friday, according to 538.

nevada1.png
Nevada2.png

One other poll was released on Thursday.
Nevada3.png

It will be an exciting Saturday. Good night now!
 
In many ways, the Prickly Pear is one of my favorites for its distinctive shape and numerous flowers.

But for beauty plus fighting power plus perky and deceptive name - I've got to go with the Jumping Cholla.
When we were in Arizona, we let the kids use an apricot to test how easily they would attach themselves. It was great fun and educational.
 
I had no idea you two would have so much fun with my deliberate misspelling. :D

But we finally have some results. Sanders is having a very good afternoon. Joe Biden seems to be doing well too. The rest is too close to call.
 
IMG_1710.jpg


Nuke from orbit.
 
Bernie Sanders Is The Winner Of The 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is the projected winner of Nevada’s Democratic caucuses, NBC News reported on Saturday evening.

Nevada is the third state to vote in the Democratic primary, and has a much more diverse population than the two states that have already weighed in: Iowa, which is still grappling with recounts, and New Hampshire, which Sanders won.
Click to expand...
 
Derec said:
I had no idea you two would have so much fun with my deliberate misspelling.
Click to expand...

You don't have to get all prickly about it.

Bernie is really sticking it to them tonight. His supporters are yuccing it up.
 
Only 4% of the Cactii are reporting. Bernie's win is a projection. We will have to wait a day or even two to know for sure just how big he will win. 12 days to Super Tueday. Bernie is looking good in Texas and California. Not so good in South Carolina.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/

Not so good in Florida, where Bloomberg is doing well.

There is a possibility that after the march 17 primaries, Sanders may have the nomination all but sealed up. If so, the big question will be, who is Sander's VP pick?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...y-of-new-national-polls-sanders-led-them-all/

...
According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, the single most likely outcome of the Democratic presidential primary is that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates (there is a 2 in 5, or 41 percent, chance of this). However, it is almost equally likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders will bag a majority (a 2 in 5 chance, or 37 percent). And a recent avalanche of national polls has been particularly good for Sanders.1
...
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Only 4% of the Cactii are reporting. Bernie's win is a projection. We will have to wait a day or even two to know for sure just how big he will win. 12 days to Super Tueday. Bernie is looking good in Texas and California. Not so good in South Carolina.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/

Not so good in Florida, where Bloomberg is doing well.

There is a possibility that after the march 17 primaries, Sanders may have the nomination all but sealed up. If so, the big question will be, who is Sander's VP pick?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...y-of-new-national-polls-sanders-led-them-all/

...
According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, the single most likely outcome of the Democratic presidential primary is that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates (there is a 2 in 5, or 41 percent, chance of this). However, it is almost equally likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders will bag a majority (a 2 in 5 chance, or 37 percent). And a recent avalanche of national polls has been particularly good for Sanders.1
...
Click to expand...

Yep. Great for Sanders. Great for Trump. Very bad for the world. Very bad for the environment.
 
"Very bad for the environment"? Trump's budget slashes EPA's budget by 27%. Finally, America's nightmare of clean water and air is over! Trump's budget slashes federal support for alternative energy projects. Trump has been slashing regulations that prevented corporate polluters from flooding us with toxic substances, pesticides and inspection of food stuffs and medicines.

No president has ever been so bad for the environment than Trump.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
"Very bad for the environment"? Trump's budget slashes EPA's budget by 27%. Finally, America's nightmare of clean water and air is over! Trump's budget slashes federal support for alternative energy projects. Trump has been slashing regulations that prevented corporate polluters from flooding us with toxic substances, pesticides and inspection of food stuffs and medicines.

No president has ever been so bad for the environment than Trump.
Click to expand...

I think Harry is convinced that Sanders can't win (correct me if I'm wrong, Harry).
I am not convinced that a very nice looking turnip wouldn't beat Trump.
 
Head to head Trumpo the clown vs Sanders will not be easy. We will hear a lot of squealing about socialism and communism if Bernie wins. And rabble rousing about Christianity and abortion, playing to the toxic Christian base. But then Sanders will attack on Trump's efforts to gut the safety net. And Trump's insane climate denial policies. And his lack of effort to protect America's voters from Putin's antics, voter suppression, caging and discouragement. Attacks on Womens' health issue. Massive deficits. And lastly, who will be appointing judges for life, including the next few Supreme court justices.

Trumpo and Faux and the GOP will be loud and obnoxious with their wedge issues. But in the end, I think Bernie can win. What will count is turn out and the Independent voters. I suspect Trump fatigue will be a big issue come voting day.
 
So with 60% reporting, Bernie is leading with almost half of CDEs, Biden is 2nd and Buttigieg a strong 3rd. Unlike Biden, Buttigieg is actually leading in some counties like Nye and Douglas, so he will get good delegates, and may even tie on delegates with Biden.

Warren is far back in 4th with only ~10% of CDEs and probably no national delegates. I am so glad her strategy to go "scorched Earth" negative did not bear fruit. Of course, she is a bully and has doubled down, and has even resorted to height-shaming Bloomberg. Bitch, aren't you like 5'8" yourself?
 
I'd like to build a comparison of who would be hurt by each of those policies - to use as a campaigning tool. To anyone who says, "they are just as bad," I'd like to be able to say - maybe to you, but to THESE people (poor, minorities, women, children, etc) they are not equal. If it's all the same to you, then would you please lend your voice to help them?
 
Elixir said:
I think Harry is convinced that Sanders can't win (correct me if I'm wrong, Harry).
Click to expand...

As are many others, including James "Ragin' Cajun" Carville and Barack Obama.

It's funny. Before the Super Tuesday, it's all "Mike Bloomberg is a sexist, he's a racist, and moreover he is short".
After Super Tuesday it's most likely going to be ...
aU5jgx.gif
... "Help us Mike Bloomberg! You're our only hope!"

I am not convinced that a very nice looking turnip wouldn't beat Trump.
Click to expand...
That kind of hubris lost Hillary the 2016 election.
 
Elixir said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
"Very bad for the environment"? Trump's budget slashes EPA's budget by 27%. Finally, America's nightmare of clean water and air is over! Trump's budget slashes federal support for alternative energy projects. Trump has been slashing regulations that prevented corporate polluters from flooding us with toxic substances, pesticides and inspection of food stuffs and medicines.

No president has ever been so bad for the environment than Trump.
Click to expand...

I think Harry is convinced that Sanders can't win (correct me if I'm wrong, Harry).
I am not convinced that a very nice looking turnip wouldn't beat Trump.
Click to expand...

That's how we end up with many more years of His Flatulence.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
"Very bad for the environment"? Trump's budget slashes EPA's budget by 27%. Finally, America's nightmare of clean water and air is over! Trump's budget slashes federal support for alternative energy projects. Trump has been slashing regulations that prevented corporate polluters from flooding us with toxic substances, pesticides and inspection of food stuffs and medicines.

No president has ever been so bad for the environment than Trump.
Click to expand...

I think Harry is convinced that Sanders can't win (correct me if I'm wrong, Harry).
I am not convinced that a very nice looking turnip wouldn't beat Trump.
Click to expand...

That's how we end up with many more years of His Flatulence.
Click to expand...

How is how we end up with trump? Overestimating the number of people who know and care what a scumbag he is?
I'm not so sure that's a moveable number. The key is getting them to vote, that's all. Even if it's for a very nice looking turnip.
 
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