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NFL 2023/2024

 
 
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Wastewater authorities are reminding Northeast Ohio not to flush the Browns' chances down the toilet, that will lead to plugging their sewer laterals.

Meanwhile in good news / bad news... New England Patriots Defense has held opponents to 10 or fewer points in four games this season, about 1/3 the games. The trouble is, the Patriots are 1-3 in those games. o_O Yes, the weather has been rough the last two games, but oi! They couldn't string three sets of downs together. It'd be:

- get ball to opposing 40 yard line
- give up two sacks and punt from own territory
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Patriots are tanking for a top draft pick. They need a QB who doesn’t suck like a nuclear powered Hoover.
 
Why tank for a draft pick? The Patriots haven't drafted well for offensive players under Belichick since he became the head coach.
 
hurtinbuckaroo said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Wastewater authorities are reminding Northeast Ohio not to flush the Browns' chances down the toilet, that will lead to plugging their sewer laterals.

Meanwhile in good news / bad news... New England Patriots Defense has held opponents to 10 or fewer points in four games this season, about 1/3 the games. The trouble is, the Patriots are 1-3 in those games. o_O Yes, the weather has been rough the last two games, but oi! They couldn't string three sets of downs together. It'd be:

- get ball to opposing 40 yard line
- give up two sacks and punt from own territory
Click to expand...
Patriots are tanking for a top draft pick. They need a QB who doesn’t suck like a nuclear powered Hoover.
Click to expand...
They can have Wilson. 🤨
Never seen a quarterback hold onto so many balls he should have thrown (OB if necessary), other than some in their first year in the NFL.
 
Patrick Mahomes had a very public meltdown because an official had the nerve to call an obvious penalty on his team, negating a touchdown that probably would have won the game. Apparently refs aren’t supposed to penalize the Chiefs if they run a really cool play (and it was really cool).

Even Brady never lost it like this.
 
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See what happens when everyone keeps saying how amazing you are all the time?

Screenshot 2023-12-11 130920.png
 
Read about it, looked up an image... yeah, he is clearly offsides. Some articles made it sound like it was close, that really wasn't close. They complained that the ref usually gives a warning, but he isn't by a ref. It sucks for a penalty that silly to negate a score, but life sucks. People think the Bills fans would have said nothing if it wasn't called?
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Read about it, looked up an image... yeah, he is clearly offsides. Some articles made it sound like it was close, that really wasn't close. They complained that the ref usually gives a warning, but he isn't by a ref. It sucks for a penalty that silly to negate a score, but life sucks. People think the Bills fans would have said nothing if it wasn't called?
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Agreed. He was nearly 1/2 yard offside. Unless you're snapping the ball, you can't be in the neutral zone, he was on the other side of it.
 
The Baltimore Ravens decided to ignore the opinions of nearly everyone in football (and maybe outside of football; the Taliban probably had their opium money on SF) that the San Francisco 49ers would boat race them clear across the bay if they showed up to play ball on Christmas night. The Ravens proceeded to harass and confuse alleged MVP candidate and former (and maybe future) Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy into throwing four interceptions, stepping in front of his passes, tipping his passes out of a receiver's hand for an easy pick, and literally doing a volleyball spike set to a teammate on one. About the only thing that slowed Lamar Jackson down was an official tripping him in the end zone for a safety. The Niners lost three of their four games to AFC North teams, which surprises no one who is at all familiar with how AFC North teams play. They don't take prisoners.

In other news, Patrick Mahomes' period has finally synced with Taylor Swift's, resulting in an incomprehensible loss to the Oakland/LA/LV Raiders. The Eagles finally found a patsy that they could beat, barely. The Cowboys proved, yet again, that the only superior unit in their organization is their marketing team. Joe Flacco's deal with the devil is still in force.
 
Belichick outcoaches a team to win near last second in a meaningless game that actually impacts the Patriots negatively for the draft pick order. Good ole Belichick.
 
Stars are aligning with Titans ax'ing Vrabel as head coach. Sounds like QB, RB situation is up in the air, so they are just throwing it all away and maybe starting from scratch.

Vrabel to New England? I can't think of many other options that'd be available that would seem reasonable and provide opportunity for growth the next few seasons.

Mayfield in playoffs, Lions win Division, Browns (without Watson and Chubbs) have home game in playoffs. Dude WTF?!

Ravens seem to be the only team that are playing to win it all, both sides of ball. But in the AFC, you have Mahomes and Allen out there (and Allen won a game with three picks!). And the Browns just have a weird sense to them. Feels like the 2001 Patriots, except the Patriots defense was one of the harder nuts to crack to get into the end zone.
 
Browns do not have a home game.

Vrabel to NE makes a lot of sense. They can also hire a competent GM, and feast on high draft picks for a couple of years. But the big domino has to fall first.

I still favor Niners slightly; so many weapons. But the Ravens have the ultimate weapon. Mahomes and Allen are also capable of winning any game; Stroud is awesome, but he has some seriously good defenses in his way. As for the Browns, I’m surprised a team hasn’t found an effective way to blitz one of the least mobile QBs in the league. Maybe Houston can send safety/slot corner off the edge to rattle him. And for the love of Christ, cover Njoku 1-on-1.

Eagles are toast. Cowboys will win at home, then get crushed in SF. I don’t see any other threats in the NFC.
 
It’s called “Wild Card Weekend” but only half of the teams are playing on wild cards, and the last game is on Monday. The Bills, Chiefs, and Texans in the AFC won their divisions. In the NFC the Cowboys, Lions, and Buccaneers won their divisions. Wild Card Weekend was a better description before the NFL expanded the playoffs in 2020.



In the past I have always referred to the home team as the favorite, and the seeding and betting line often supported this, however, this is not always true. Note that this year, two of the traveling teams, the Browns and the Eagles, are betting favorites. Also note that the betting lines for 4 of the 6 games are 3.5 or less, no team is an overwhelming favorite.



Here are the games, the number before the team name is their seeding, and the betting lines are shown after. Below are my picks, ignoring the line, I just pick winners (I don’t bet on these games), but most of the games are “pick-em’s” anyway (parity?).



Games

Saturday 4:30 NBC 5 Browns at 4 Texans (Browns fav 1.5)

Saturday 8:00 Peacock 6 Dolphins at 3 Chiefs (Chiefs fav by 3)

Sunday 1:00 CBS 7 Steelers at 2 Bills (Bill fav by 9.5)

Sunday 4:30 Fox 7 Packers at 2 Cowboys (Cowboys fav by 7)

Sunday 8:15 NBC 6 Rams at 3 Lions (Lions fav by 3.5)

Monday 8:00 ABC 5 Eagles at 4 Buccaneers (Eagles fav by 2.5)



My Picks

Browns over Texans (Flacco’s run is not done, wins on last minute TD)

Chiefs over Dolphins (Chiefs open up the game in second half starting with a trick play)

Steelers over Bills (Steelers win on defensive TD in a very low scoring game)

Cowboys over Packers (this will be the blow out game, won’t be close at all)

Lions over Rams (last minute FG wins the game)

Buccs over Eagles (Eagles continue to commit mistakes and hand the win to the Buccs)
 
Steelers may be missing their best defensive player (Watt). I don’t think they keep up with the Bills in Buffalo. I also think the Eagles can cobble together something resembling a good performance and beat the Bucs.

Stafford really impressed me with how well he played against the Ravens last month, and I think he’ll win his homecoming against Detroit. Lions will miss their outstanding TE who they lost to a knee injury.

In other news, you’ll need a subscription to Peacock if you want to watch Dolphins-Chiefs. People are extremely unhappy about that. But the NFL juggernaut charges ahead.
 
The big shoe has dropped: Belichick is out in New England. He may be replaced by Vrabel, who was a surprise termination in Tennessee. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches ever; he’s also a terrible GM. If an underachieving team with some talent (Chargers ?) can convince him to focus on what he does best, he could be back in the playoffs very soon.
 
Belichick couldn't draft to save his life, but he had a run of brilliance in using good talent and making them play awesome. His defenses were legendary and he really know how to win games by using every tool in the box, including occassional cheating.

The Patriots will never be as good as they were. It is impossible. As long as he doesn't coach in NY for the Jets or Giants, I hope for him great success.
 
Well, as we all expected, linebacker coach (and eight year Patriot veteran) Jerod Mayo is the new Head Coach of the Patriots... and it was set in stone last year.

*record scratch*

I mean, I'm happy they had a plan, but, this wasn't what I was thinking of. Do they really see that much in him?
 
hyzer said:
Steelers over Bills (Steelers win on defensive TD in a very low scoring game)
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I don't trust the Bills yet, so I am picking this upset too, which will kickoff on Monday now.

I don't have strong feelings for the other games. With all the parity this year, there are no locks. The odds are close in all but 2 games, and I think the worst underdogs have good shots in those too.

Biggest amazement to me of the season is the Browns record. I laughed a few weeks ago when I saw they were 9 and 5 and they'd been going with their backup to backup, etc. qb. I hope they go far enough that Flacco can face Ravens.

My Rams should be able to score on Detroit but they will give up a bunch too on defense AND special teams. They will go as far as their middling defense can perform just enough.
 
I had Texans and Chiefs, so on track so far. I’ve also picked Cowboys, Rams, Bills, and Eagles.

Steelers would have had a much better chance of winning if they’d played today, when passing the ball would have been nearly impossible. Their ground game is by far their best weapon, and is better than Buffalo’s.

We’re hosting a group of my college friends this weekend, and we all made picks for the Saturday and Sunday games. We’re giving a “Pigskin Prognosticator” trophy to the winner. We added a tiebreaker, with everyone predicting how many times Taylor Swift would be on camera during the game.
 
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