Odds on Clinton or Trump backing out of debates?

[repoman]

What do y'all think about this?

At this point the times and the moderators have been set.

How would Trump or Clinton tactically ditch out the debates?

Are they setting up narratives for this purpose now?

I give it only a very small chance of this happening, but this year is really crazy...

 

[Ford]

Clinton? Zero. This is her chance to show the start difference between her and Trump with regards to experience and temperament.

Trump? Depends on how the first one goes.

 

[iolo]

I think anyone who attempts to 'debate' anything with Trump is on a hiding to nothing: electorates are out of love with 'sense'.

 

[repoman]

"on a hiding to nothing"? is that a Welsh idiom?

 

[credoconsolans]

Clinton has no reason to back out. She's an excellent debater and knows how to play the game.

Trump, on the other hands, gets his feelings hurt if he feels insulted by a woman not impressed with his money. It's dollars to doughnuts Trump agrees to one debate, then when he gets his ass handed to him by Clinton, refusesto do another and makes up all kinds of reasons as to why they're a waste of time.

 

[Elixir]

Clinton has no reason to back out. She's an excellent debater and knows how to play the game.

Trump, on the other hands, gets his feelings hurt if he feels insulted by a woman not impressed with his money. It's dollars to doughnuts Trump agrees to one debate, then when he gets his ass handed to him by Clinton, refuse to do another and make up all kinds of reasons as to why they're a waste of time.

I think the word he'll use is "counterproductive". And he'll be absolutely right, from a Trumpublican point of view.

 

[Terrell]

I think if he can make it look close in the first debate, it may play to his advantage to try and get out of the 2nd & 3rd debates. He can claim he debated, held his own, and not risk getting his ass kicked in subsequent debates. If HRC wipes the floor with him in the first debate, I have no idea how he'll react.

I do wonder what would happen if Gary Johnson somehow manages to get into the 1st debate, who it will help more, if anyone. I suspect Trump would since he might not say something stupid while someone else is talking. It's Trump though, and it could work against him if he won't restrain himself during such times.

 

[Keith&Co.]

I think if he can make it look close in the first debate, it may play to his advantage to try and get out of the 2nd & 3rd debates. He can claim he debated, held his own, and not risk getting his ass kicked in subsequent debates. If HRC wipes the floor with him in the first debate, I have no idea how he'll react. .

He'll claim he debated, held his own and did NOT get his ass kicked....

 

[Terrell]

I think if he can make it look close in the first debate, it may play to his advantage to try and get out of the 2nd & 3rd debates. He can claim he debated, held his own, and not risk getting his ass kicked in subsequent debates. If HRC wipes the floor with him in the first debate, I have no idea how he'll react. .

He'll claim he debated, held his own and did NOT get his ass kicked....

Yeah, you said it better than me.

 

[Bronzeage]

Conventional political wisdom says debates are a losing game for front runners and a must win for the guy behind in the polls.

There's nothing conventional about this election, so forget all that. Hillary will be there, rested and ready. Trump will show up, over coached and anxious.

The only time Trump has gained by opening his mouth has been the few pre-written speeches taken off a teleprompter. The debate format is the nightmare scenario for Trumps campaign team. He'll be speaking from the cuff all night long and likely to cite sources he has heard, because people are saying things.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think if he can make it look close in the first debate, it may play to his advantage to try and get out of the 2nd & 3rd debates. He can claim he debated, held his own, and not risk getting his ass kicked in subsequent debates. If HRC wipes the floor with him in the first debate, I have no idea how he'll react. .

He'll claim he debated, held his own and did NOT get his ass kicked....

Remember debates isn't about being the smartest or having presented the best argument. It is what people think who won that matters. Debating Trump won't be easy because Clinton knows Trump won't be debating. However, she is likely to set a couple bear traps during the debate and trying to stay out of the traps set by Trump. Trump can retort well. The Clinton camp is likely trying to determine the best way to pound into Trump without looking too bruising.

Thinking about the VP debate, is this the least important VP debate ever?

 

[Bronzeage]

He'll claim he debated, held his own and did NOT get his ass kicked....

Remember debates isn't about being the smartest or having presented the best argument. It is what people think who won that matters. Debating Trump won't be easy because Clinton knows Trump won't be debating. However, she is likely to set a couple bear traps during the debate and trying to stay out of the traps set by Trump. Trump can retort well. The Clinton camp is likely trying to determine the best way to pound into Trump without looking too bruising.

Thinking about the VP debate, is this the least important VP debate ever?

The VP debate is just a mine field. Nobody is expected to win, but everyone is waiting for a gaffe.

Trump has never been good when confronted with an unfriendly opponent. His poor grasp of technical facts will be his undoing. If he repeats his acceptance speech, Hillary will cut him to pieces.

 

[iolo]

"on a hiding to nothing"? is that a Welsh idiom?

Normal English idiom, as far as I know. A bet which, either way, you can't win.

 

[credoconsolans]

I think if he can make it look close in the first debate, it may play to his advantage to try and get out of the 2nd & 3rd debates. He can claim he debated, held his own, and not risk getting his ass kicked in subsequent debates. If HRC wipes the floor with him in the first debate, I have no idea how he'll react. .

He'll claim he debated, held his own and did NOT get his ass kicked....

And he will be believed by his followers.

Breaking with tradition is all he's done all campaign season.

But if the Clinton side keeps up the call that he's a coward and if can't face a woman in a public arena, how's he going to face world leaders?, that will start to resonate with his more troglodyte followers.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Clinton's problem is not Trump, but the Bernie supporters who may not show up to vote. She has to reach out to them. To remind them of who Trump has appointed to nominate far right supreme court judges. His support for torture. Use of nuclear weapons. And massive deficits caused by his economic policies according to numerous analysts. Trump's inane climate denialism. She has to get the usual young voters who typically don't show up to vote to do so. She has to twist every question asked to these ends.

From here on out for her, its all about getting out the vote.

 

[zorq]

IMO These debates don't change anything in the modern era.
TLDR at the bottom.


George W. Bush allegedly won at least two of his three debates against Gore and John Kerry allegedly won two out of three debates against Bush. Both Kerry and Gore were allegedly smarter, more prepared, and better at speaking off the cuff than Bush, but that doesn't matter because Bush had more charisma and he was able to memorize all the talking points he used stumping during his campaign. The canned material worked.

The Palin vs Biden debate went about the same. Palin held her own by memorizing the talking points and only made minuscule errors despite the fact that she was practically clueless about actual international and domestic history, policy, and events. The expectations for her were so low that some people credited her with the win.

The thing about these debates is that in this divided political landscape the partisans will always cheer for their side regardless of the quality of their anointed one's ideas, intelligence, knowledge, or rhetorical skill. And if the candidates don't say something super stupid (Ford-Carter debate), the non-partisans in the middle just pick the candidate with more charisma.

TLDR: All Trump needs to do is to quote some talking points and chuckle and he'll do fine at the debate. All you need is a little prep, a little charm, and a good attitude and nothing can go wrong.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

All Trump needs to do is to quote some talking points and chuckle and he'll do fine at the debate. All you need is a little prep, a little charm, and a good attitude and nothing can go wrong.

How true. If he dropped his pants and mooned Hillary he'd be the winner.

 

[laughing dog]

Even if HRC eats him alive in the debate, Trump will spin that the media are rigged against him. Nothing is going to sway his die hard supporters and the rabid Clinton haters to abandon him. But those groups are not nearly enough to get him a victory.

However, his problem is that there are enough rational and relatively disinterested voters left that he needs to swing to his side and he cannot afford to get clobbered.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Even if HRC eats him alive in the debate, Trump will spin that the media are rigged against him. Nothing is going to sway his die hard supporters and the rabid Clinton haters to abandon him. But those groups are not nearly enough to get him a victory.

However, his problem is that there are enough rational and relatively disinterested voters left that he needs to swing to his side and he cannot afford to get clobbered.

I think Clinton's job in the debate is to look Presidential, but more importantly, human. She needs to develop a little empathy from the public.

I think Biden maneuvered that one from left field when Palin went on about helping single parents and then Biden smacked it home regarding himself knowing personally about it. Priorities

1. Set a couple bear traps for Trump to just walk right into
2. Look human and appear to have emotions
3. Have composure, but not Dukakis level composure

 

[Elixir]

Even if HRC eats him alive in the debate, Trump will spin that the media are rigged against him.

Morning Joe... "if Trump shows up and doesn't drool on himself, it will be a victory."
I'm afraid that's how it's going to be, at least in the minds of Trumpsters.

However, his problem is that there are enough rational and relatively disinterested voters left that he needs to swing to his side and he cannot afford to get clobbered.

I wonder how many "swing" voters are that way because they're totally uninformed. For such people, simply not drooling on himself might qualify Trump for their votes.