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On Deck: 2022

And the alt-right misinformation war is being waged.

article said:
“We’re not looking at single narratives or false claims here and there that happen to go viral,” said Cindy Otis, a former technology executive and CIA analyst who now researches disinformation. “We’re looking at entire social media platforms, independent news commentary websites and social media influencers who are starting from a place of ‘Elections are rigged against conservatives’ and covering the election from there.”

In some instances, the online conversation included calls for violence.

The encouragement to storm counting sites in Georgia came in response to news that the mail-in ballot deadline had been extended for some voters in Cobb County following a logistical hiccup, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks online extremists. On The Donald, where much of the planning for the Jan. 6 Capitol siege took place, some posters called on supporters in Georgia to “be ready to lock and load” around election offices in case of “shenanigans.”
The coordination of the misinformation also gets real troubling when this occurs:
article said:
A post from a Twitter account with about 30 followers, claiming that voting machines were also malfunctioning in Bell County, Tex., gained viral popularity when it was shared by Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona GOP. “It’s not only happening in Arizona...” she wrote. That tweet, in turn, inspired a headline on the Gateway Pundit website. “The FIX IS IN!” the site claimed.
A Twitter account with 30 followers posting misinformation would generally be of little concern. It'd be like if I posted something on Twitter. No one will ever notice. But a Twitter account with 30 followers goes viral via the Arizona GOP? Yeah, that looks suspicious, how the heck did they even dig up the Tweet? A Tweet by a nobody account about voting machines in Bell County, Texas? For those that don't know where that is, like me, that is edging towards the eastern portion of Central Texas.
With polls closing in just 17,477 hours from now, let's start our discussion on the General Election for 2024.
I am prepared for a shellacking in both chambers. Inflation is a significant factor in daily life and, fair or not, voters will blame the party in power for it.
US Stocks rally on promises of austerity and inflation driving tax cuts.
Well, I just voted. Extrapolating what I know about the vote so far in the early voting (by extrapolating my vote), the Dems should win unanimously! ;)
That's certainly a bold prediction, but the models at fivethirtyeight predict that Republicans will almost certainly take the House and that the Senate is a dead heat (notwithstanding the tie-breaking advantage of the vice-President).
I just wanna say the following: Fuck fivethirtyeight.

The douchebag hit it big in 2012 and has been surfing off that bullshit ever since. When things go right for them, they brag about their model. When things go wrong, "We don't make predictions!" It's a con-job by people less stupid than Fox News, so it makes 538 seem like it's run by smart people.

I'm going to predict the world doesn't end tomorrow. It's possible that it will, but not likely. Either way I've made a correct prediction.

Sound stupid? Welcome to fivethirtyeight.
As I've stated, there are narratives for low red tsunami, long drawn out fucking status quo, and epic blue wave, so 528 could be right. The sad fact is the GOP could take the House while the Dems gain seats in the Senate merely from the aggregated gerrymandering.

Personally, based on the polls and Putin fucking with our electorate again by raising gas prices right before the election, there is a low red tsunami feel. BUT, I think each narrative carries a viable justification, and Dobbs presents that Kansas 60/40 possibility as well. And that wildcard plays out when the returns come in. Again, like in 2020, where we weren't even allowed it, I would prefer quick finality.

The election isn't even over yet, what have we learned?
  • The GOP supporters will vote for anyone now in large enough numbers, the Dems shouldn't support the crackpots anymore.
Well, I think that sums that up for now. Our nation's very short-term (win) or long-term (lose) destiny is in the hands of women.
2022 Midterm Elections - A FAQ of Depression

So, is next Tuesday night going to be a party like 1993 in Canada for Liberals? Will our bodies be waving from the rafters? Will we continue having these too darn close election results that keep us refreshing the darn browser every 30 seconds to see if that Precinct comes in from the NW portion of Phoenix?

Really, all three of these options are quite possible.
I know, I know. When you make three predictions, it isn't quite as spectacular when one of them is right.
Q/A Bag:

Q: Wait! We aren't done yet?!
A: Nope.

Q: WTF man?!
A: Some states have different manners of holding elections. Alaska needs all the votes in based on the instant runoff, Nevada is largely mail-in ballots, Georgia still has Jim Crow laws requiring a 50%+1 level for a person to win.

Q: What about the House?
A: The House always has some races that run long past election day. We usually don't notice it because the generalized outcome is known.

Q: Do we have a generalized known outcome?
A: Yes. The GOP most likely has a small majority in the House.

Q: That's bad.
A: Could have been worse. Lots of alt-righters are bawling their eyes out because this election didn't end up being an irrational MAGA orgy.

Q: I wish you didn't put that image in my mind. Have you seen the rallies?!
A: Yes, I have... I apologize.

Q: What about the Senate.
A: Sorry, while Alaska is a known quantity and will be red, unless Murkowski does a face change, Nevada needs time and Georgia will be first week of December. Tea leaves say Dems maintain the Senate.

Q: Any other news Mr. Helpful?
A: McConnell is sad that he isn't Majority Leader. He is running out of years to do so.

Q: That makes me feel better.
A: It makes us all feel better. :giggle:

Q: Do you promise it'll be over in December.
A: With this GOP?! I can't make that kind of a promise.
Robert Reich on Twitter: "Contrast Kari Lake's feculence on Tuesday — assailing the "cheaters and crooks” whom she claimed were running elections — with Tim Ryan’s graceful concession speech, and you'll see that the real battle in America isn't right v left, it's neofascism versus democracy." / Twitter

Sandy Piderit on Twitter: "@RBReich Thanks for sharing Tim Ryan’s speech. Those are patriotic words spoken by someone who understands respect for the constitution and the rule of law. (pic link)" / Twitter
We have too much hate, we have too much anger, there's way too much fear, there's way too much division, and we need more love, we need more compassion, we need more concern for each other. These are the important things. We need forgiveness, we need grace, we need reconciliation. I have the privilege to concede this race to J.D. Vance because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election you concede and you respect the will of the people. We can't have a system where if you win it's a legitimate election and if you lose, someone stole it. We need good people who are going to honor the institutions of this country.... The highest title in this land is citizen, and we have an obligation to be good citizens.
Aaron Rupar on Twitter: "Tim Ryan: "I have the privilege to concede this race to JD Vance, bc the way this country operates is that when you lose an election you concede. You respect the will of the people. We can't have a system where if you win it's a legitimate election & if you lose someone stole it" (vid link)" / Twitter

Oz calls Fetterman to concede | The Hill
Oz later said in a statement that he wished Fetterman and his family the best personally and as Pennsylvania’s next senator. He thanked his supporters and said he hopes the country begins a healing process to come together.

“We are facing big problems as a country and we need everyone to put down their partisan swords and focus on getting the job done,” he said. “With bold leadership that brings people together, we can create real change.”
Mehmet Cengiz Ôz - I have decided to research the origins of the name of this heart surgeon turned TV quack.
 Mehmet Oz - Turkish: [mehˈmet dʒeɲˈɟiz øz]

I went over to Wiktionary and I checked on the origins of his name.

Mehmet - Wiktionary - the Turkish version of Mohammed, the name of the founder of Islam.

Cengiz is the Turkish form of Genghis - Wiktionary as in Genghis Khan.

Ôz - öz - Wiktionary
  1. gist , kernel / self
  2. (old) valley, river / creek, small river / wetlands, fertile land
So I'm guessing "river", since place names are common in last names. Something like "Deniz", a common Turkish name meaning "sea".
Citizen Free Press on Twitter: "Kari Lake advisor flames McConnell:
“He spent $40 million on Oz in PA. Any time McConnell touches anything it goes to shit. In GA they’ll announce Karl Rove is gonna run some obscure PAC, steal $75 million, and lose us another Senate seat.” (vid link)" / Twitter

Just Derrick on Twitter: "@bennyjohnson @KariLake Kari Lake doesn't have much of a platform. All she does is spout off Trump's rhetoric." / Twitter

Keith Ellison Fends Off Attack on Crime Record in Minnesota AG Election - "Keith Ellison defends his progressive mantle in Minnesota’s attorney general race after attacks from all sides."
This year, Ellison found himself caught between his reputation as a progressive attorney general who doggedly pursued lawsuits against corporate criminals, and a Democratic Party attacked for failing to uphold an ambiguous notion of law and order — despite the bona fides of its tough-on-crime president.

Ellison’s prosecution of the police officers responsible for the murder of George Floyd spurred attack ads supported by Minnesota law enforcement groups and Republican super PACs. As The Intercept reported earlier this week, police unions spent some $300,000 against Ellison. His opponent, Republican Jim Schultz, also seized on Ellison’s support for a ballot measure that would have created a Department of Public Safety in Minneapolis as a testament to his weak stance on crime.

Despite the GOP onslaught, Ellison was buoyed by over $4 million in ad spending from allied groups including the People’s Lawyers Project — Minnesota’s extension of the Democratic Attorneys General Association — and a smattering of local and national unions whose workers he has labored to protect. “This is a very clear contrast as to who you’re gonna get: a consumer advocate, a worker’s advocate — or a hedge fund Wall Street lawyer,” Ellison said during an October debate with Schultz
Police Money Could Tip Keith Ellison Minnesota Attorney General Race - "Ellison’s attorney general’s office successfully prosecuted George Floyd killer Derek Chauvin. Now, in a tight race, the cops are gunning for him."
Georgia’s Turnout Boss, Stacey Abrams, Had a Turnout Problem - "Georgia’s election this year was supposed to be a turnout game, just like 2018 and 2020. You wouldn’t know it from last night’s results."
I could tell two stories about these numbers. The first is that Senate Bill 202, Georgia’s “reforms” to voting laws passed after the historic 2020 election here, depressed turnout more than the Democratic turnout machine could counteract. The second is that Democratic voters were, frankly, a little burned out by the constant thrum of political noise, and that Republicans learned the turnout lesson in 2020. There’s evidence for both cases.

Politicians crowed about early voting numbers. Over the course of three weeks, 2.5 million voters cast ballots in person in Georgia, about as many as 2020. Lines were largely nonexistent. But that masked a different problem; mail-in ballots had fallen way off from 2020.

Notice that I haven’t mentioned a single thing about policy yet. That’s because I don’t think it actually mattered much.

Georgia’s politics have become completely tribal. Almost no one was voting for Herschel Walker in the Senate race because they believed strongly in his ability to lead or his political acumen, or even because of his political arguments, such as they were. They were voting for a Republican, the more Republican the better. For all of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s comparative appeal as a moral and civic leader, Democrats by and large would have voted for anyone running on the Democratic line of the ballot, as long as they were certain that person would have fidelity to the cause.
Georgia’s Turnout Boss, Stacey Abrams, Had a Turnout Problem - "Georgia’s election this year was supposed to be a turnout game, just like 2018 and 2020. You wouldn’t know it from last night’s results."
Georgia’s politics have become completely tribal.

Not completely tribal, otherwise so many people wouldn't have voted for Kemp but not for Walker. Lots of split ticket voting like that this election.
Yeah... umm... if someone in 2020 told me that the Democrats would win three straight Senate elections in Georgia, I would have thought they were a bit out of their mind. It seems some people just thinking Georgia is a blue state, but Abrams just isn't getting the vote out.
I think people were far more excited about Stacey in 2018 compared to 2022. She lost a lot of support from Black men for one thing. It's true that Republicans were more energized in this election in some areas. In 2018, Stacey visited every country and engaged directly with voters. I think that helped a lot. This time, she only spent most of her time in urban areas, where she was already popular. Plus, despite being a small donor to her campaign, I have to say that the constant texts and emails begging for money were getting on my nerves. But, I read that most people were disgusted with both parties begging for money. It doesn't win elections, as you can tell from the MTG victory.

New York lost 4 Democratic Congress seats. How does one explain that? Georgia didn't lose any Congressional seats. We still have 6 Dems and 8 Repugs, I think. There was a lot of talk that Sanford Bishop might lose his seat, but he beat his opponent by about 10 percentage points, I think. ( I'm going by memory from what I've read over the last several days. ) I'm not sure that Georgia is any more tribal compared to the rest of the country. Consider how many voted split ticket, Warnock would have lost outright if not for that. Instead we have the run off next month. Georgia has been pretty much a purple state as long as I've lived here. The urban areas are very blue and the rural areas are very red, white the suburban areas are mixed. I just hope we can get out the vote in December, so we don't end up with Walker in the Senate.

Voter apathy in the midterms has always been a problem here.
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