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On Deck: 2022

 
lpetrich said:
538 predicts for the Senate, 63% D 37% R, but for the House, 22% D 78% R, giving a chance of a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.
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I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
 
ZiprHead said:
I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
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Different races, different candidates. For one, only about 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection. And House races are by district, while Senate is statewide. Finally, Republicans are hampered by getting some very poor candidates through the primaries. Herschel the Halfwit, Mehmet the Carpetbagger, JD the Porn Grabber.
 
Mehmet Oz recently did a campaign ad featuring himself doing grocery shopping, but he made himself look very silly in it.

Oz’s viral crudité video sums up his campaign against Fetterman - "Wealthy Republicans absolutely love cosplaying as working-class everymen, and Oz’s performance was dismal even by those subterranean standards."
This week a spectacularly tone-deaf campaign video that Republican Pennsylvania Senate nominee Mehmet Oz first posted in April resurfaced on social media. In the video, Oz wanders around the produce section of the grocery store Redner’s (which he mispronounces “Wegners”), picks up a random assortment of vegetables, a container of premade salsa and a package of guacamole, marvels at their prices and then blames President Joe Biden for the cost. At the beginning of the video, Oz explained that his wife “wants some vegetables for crudité,” and proceeds to spend the next 31 seconds inadvertently doing a spot-on Lucille Bluth impression.

At the end of the video, in an apparent effort to relate to the viewer, he says, “Guys, that’s $20 for crudité and that doesn’t even include the tequila” in his unmistakable Jersey accent. He later claimed that it had all been a “joke,” but there’s nothing funny about a rich man pretending to share common cause with poor and working-class people he's built a career exploiting.
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That's the first time I've ever heard of a crudité. I think that if a Democrat did something like that, Republican culture warriors would be jumping up and down on them for being an out-of-touch elitist.
Seeng a Trump-endorsed television celebrity who owns 10 multimillion-dollar properties in the U.S. and Turkey and who made a fortune from shilling snake oil and quack medical advice to vulnerable people try to pretend that a $2 head of broccoli is going to hurt his wallet is at the very least laughable. But it’s also insulting to the millions of people who do struggle to afford food under a brutal economic system that would prefer to see us all starve — a system that Oz, as a Republican, is running to uphold.
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 Crudités
Crudités (/ˈkruːdɪteɪ(z)/, French: [kʁydite]) are French appetizers consisting of sliced or whole raw vegetables[1] which are typically dipped in a vinaigrette or other dipping sauce. Examples of crudités include celery sticks, carrot sticks, cucumber sticks, bell pepper strips, broccoli, cauliflower, fennel, baby corn, and asparagus spears.
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ZiprHead said:
lpetrich said:
538 predicts for the Senate, 63% D 37% R, but for the House, 22% D 78% R, giving a chance of a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.
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I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
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Yup. The Dems and GOP have a few weak Senate seats: GA, NV, AZ / GOP have: PA, WI, OH.

The Trump base portion of the GOP appear to have own-goaled GA. NV should be close but safe. AZ, the Dems have the right guy there.

GOP put Dr. Oz on the ticket and the Dems have a left-wing equivalent of Jesse Ventura that is popular enough. Wisconsin Dems solidified behind one candidate and Sen. Johnson is really in a tight spot. Ohio would have likely sent Sen. Portman back, but he is retiring, so the Trump base portion of the GOP signed off on lightweight JD Vance and the Dems selected Rep. Tim Ryan who was genetically enhanced to win in purple America. The GOP saved themselves from a nightmare in MO, so it is likely that a 4 seat loss is not going to happen, but a 52-48 is definitely possible and it could be better.

The House is unpredictable. Normal years, Dems lose seats. Add to that, the GOP made with more gerrymandering, but the Dems did their fair share where they could. So that hurts. However, Dobbs changed the turnout math. And I wouldn't trust much in the way of polling regarding 2022, as if women (especially younger) turn out like in Kansas, the Dems could actually have a blue wave... a prediction no one is speaking about. But for the moment, in general, the Dems should expect to lose the House. The Dobbs wild card will play out as it will.
 
www.newsweek.com

'Threats to Democracy' Overtake 'Cost of Living' as Voters' Top Issue: Poll

The same poll, released Sunday, found that 57% of voters think investigations into ex-president Donald Trump should continue.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
For the first time in recent months, registered voters in the U.S. say that the top issue on their minds is the threat facing democracy, according to a poll from NBC released Sunday. Previous NBC polls in March and May showed that the top issue on the minds of those surveyed was cost of living.

The poll this time found that 21 percent of voters ranked "threats to democracy" as the most critical matter facing the country, while 16 percent chose "cost of living," which ranked as second. In third was "jobs and the economy," with 14 percent.

The poll also asked voters about their opinion on the investigations into former President Donald Trump's alleged misconduct: 57 percent of voters polled believe they should continue, while 40 percent said they should stop.
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ZiprHead said:
www.newsweek.com

'Threats to Democracy' Overtake 'Cost of Living' as Voters' Top Issue: Poll

The same poll, released Sunday, found that 57% of voters think investigations into ex-president Donald Trump should continue.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
For the first time in recent months, registered voters in the U.S. say that the top issue on their minds is the threat facing democracy, according to a poll from NBC released Sunday. Previous NBC polls in March and May showed that the top issue on the minds of those surveyed was cost of living.

The poll this time found that 21 percent of voters ranked "threats to democracy" as the most critical matter facing the country, while 16 percent chose "cost of living," which ranked as second. In third was "jobs and the economy," with 14 percent.

The poll also asked voters about their opinion on the investigations into former President Donald Trump's alleged misconduct: 57 percent of voters polled believe they should continue, while 40 percent said they should stop.
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This week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cast doubt on Republicans' chances of retaking Congress' upper chamber, noting that he believes it will be easier for Republicans to win back control of the House. "Senate races are just different," he said, according to NBC News. "They're statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."
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He's not wrong. Just absolutely preplexed that the Republican senate candidate for PA is Dr. Oz. What the hell?
 
Rob Pyers on Twitter: "After yesterday's ActBlue report, #GA14's Marcus Flowers is close to topping the 'most $ burned in unwinnable US House seat' list.
$12.16M #MN05 Johnson (Omar)
*$12.05M #GA14 Flowers (MTG)
$11.15M #NY14 Cummings (AOC)
$10.33M #CA43 Collins (Waters)
$8.29M #MD07 Klacik (Mfume)
(pix link)" / Twitter

The other four were Republicans who ran in strongly Democratic districts in 2020.

Noting a tweet from two years ago:
Rob Pyers on Twitter: "Four Republicans running in safe blue districts ..." / Twitter
Four Republicans running in safe blue districts persuaded GOP donors to part with a combined $41.9 million in the 2020 cycle

District/Cand/Vote Share/$ Raised

#CA43 Collins 28.3% ($10.33M)
#MD07 Klacik 28.4% ($8.29M)
#NY14 Cummings 27.4% ($11.15M)
#MN05 Johnson 25.9% ($12.16M)

Collins' campaign racked up $68,000 in Delta Flights, $30,000 in Uber & Lyft rides, spent tens of thousands at an assortment of luxury hotels and restaurants across the country, and funneled hundreds of thousands in consulting fees to LLCs of questionable provenance.

Cummings' campaign against AOC in #NY14 seems to have existed primarily to ensure direct mail vendors maintained a steady supply of boats and vacation homes...

Klacik and Johnson's campaigns ended up writing a lot of checks to WinRed for fundraising fees, credit card charges, and other assorted costs.
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The Florida primaries are coming out.

In FL-01, Matt Gaetz is winning with 65.6% vs. 23.7% and 10.6% with 78% counted.

But in FL-11, Laura Loomer is losing to incumbent Daniel Webster 44.5% - 50.7% with another candidate at 4.8%. LL is a far-right Islamophobe, white nationalist, and conspiracy monger who was endorsed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar.

538 rates FL-11 as R+19, meaning that if LL had won, she would likely have won the general election.

With 94% of the vote counted, and 84% of the vote among the 4 candidates, Val Demings won the Democratic nomination for this US Senate race. Marco Rubio, the Republican and the incumbent was uncontested.

Also with 94% of the vote counted for the Democratic nomination for Florida governor, Charlie Crist has 59.8% of the vote, beating Nikki Fried at 35.2% and the two others at 2.5% and 2.4%.

From the NYT about this race,
Representative Charlie Crist is facing off against Nikki Fried, Florida’s agriculture commissioner, in the Democratic primary to compete against Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican. Mr. Crist, a former Republican, has emphasized his moderate bona fides, while Ms. Fried has portrayed her campaign as “something new.”
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Zachary Petrizzo on Twitter: "A far-right media favorite and ultra-MAGA candidate Anthony Sabatini — who called for FBI agents to be "arrested upon sight" after the Trump Mar-a-Lago search — was trounced tonight in a Florida primary." / Twitter - in FL-07
With >95% counted, he got 21.1%, losing to Cory Mills at 33.8%. The others: 21.1%, 13.7%, 12.7%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.8%, 3.8%


Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Rep. Sabatini says he wants to defund the FBI and all other federal law enforcement agencies: “First we defund them. We gut them like a fish. Bring the agency to heel. All the DOJ law enforcement agencies.” (vid link)" / Twitter

Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Rep. Anthony Sabatini says FL should expel all federal law enforcement agents from the state, and if they refuse to leave, local law enforcement should arrest them for trespass. (vid link)" / Twitter

Good riddance.
 
Justin Ling on Twitter: "Laura Loomer has:
-Thrown a temper tantrum, demanding a "non-Muslim" Uber driver
-Advocated forming anti-government militas
-Promised to introduce legislation to ban Muslims from congress
-Called the COVID-19 vaccine a "scam"
She might knock off an incumbent Congressman (link)" / Twitter

She is a very sore loser.
Mike DeForest on Twitter: "“I’M NOT CONCEDING!” Laura Loomer attacks the Republican Party and alleges voter fraud after losing GOP primary to incumbent Florida congressman Daniel Webster. #news6 (vid link)" / Twitter
Referring to the "corruption" in the "feckless, cowardly" Republican Party.


Adny Partridge on Twitter: "@Godisinmytoast1 @therecount @UROCKlive1
Here in AZ, @KariLake used the run-up to the GOP Gov primary to make claims about fraud. In the primary.
Never showed evidence, of course.
As soon as her win was announced, the claims of fraud stopped.
Soon to start again, for the general, you know." / Twitter
 
Mehmet Oz's last name is originally Öz -- the o with an umlaut on it, like the German ö and the French eu. Make "eh" but with rounded lips like "oh". Also, his first name originally has a pronounced "h" -- mehh-met. It is the Turkish form of the name Mohammed.
 
Blastula's tweet:
Acyn on Twitter: "Kornacki: NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan has been elected to Congress… This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally.. This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate (vid link)" / Twitter


New York Times coverage: New York Primary Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

538 estimates of district partisan margins: What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - New York | FiveThirtyEight

DistrictD polR polD #R #D-R #538Diff
NY-19Pat RyanMarc Molinaro51.948.13.8-1+5
NY-23Max Della PiaJoseph Sempolinski46.753.3-6.6-23+16

So both elections were good for Democrats. The first was a victory, and the second was a defeat that was less than expected.
 
Opinion | Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker or Blake Masters: Which candidate is worst? - The Washington Post
The race for the title of most incompetent, least electable Republican candidate for the Senate has become a real competition. Thanks, Donald Trump.

The former president’s endorsements led enough bad Senate nominees to primary victories that the GOP’s hopes of seizing control of the chamber — in what should be a Republican year — are fading. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) acknowledged ruefully last week that “candidate quality” is an issue. The “lack thereof” might have been implied, but his point was obvious.
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listing
  • Herschel Walker - GA - Raphael Warnock
  • Mehmet Oz - PA - John Fetterman
  • Blake Masters - AZ - Mark Kelly
  • JD Vance - OH - Tim Ryan
  • Ron Johnson - WI - Mandela Barnes
  • Marco Rubio - FL - Val Demings

It certainly didn’t help last week that a video of Oz going grocery shopping and complaining about inflation went viral. Oz was trying to portray himself as Joe Average. He did not succeed.

In the video, first he gets the name of the store wrong — it was a Redner’s, a well-known Pennsylvania-based chain, not “Wegner’s,” as he called it. He then examines some raw broccoli, asparagus and carrots, and explains, “My wife wants some vegetables for crudités.” Fetterman, a cargo-shorts and hoodie-wearing Joe Average in everything but height, responded: “In PA, we call this a veggie tray” and issued a bumper sticker with the slogan “Let Them Eat Crudité.”

...
Masters has also attacked McConnell as being “not good at” legislating and has called for him to be replaced as GOP leader in the Senate. While Kelly’s political skills are seen by Democratic strategists as less than dazzling, a Fox News poll last week found him leading Masters by eight points, 50 percent to 42 percent.
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