One Million Deaths From Covid-19 Possible In America

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/ex...m-a-major-preventable-public-health-disaster/

...
The fatal reach of the COVID-19 coronavirus is expected to claim the lives of over 1 million people in the United States, according to a top public health expert.
Andy Slavitt served as the acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) during the Obama administration.
On Thursday evening, Slavitt gave an update on the pandemic after talking with his sources.

​

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Here is what he learned:
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Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it.

This will be recorded as a major preventable public health disaster. I will try to relate what I learned from a long day of calls about what is happening.
...

Holy crap. If anything like this happens, it is going to start a political firestorm the likes of which we haven't seen in America. Even as this is all coming down, the Trump administration is still wanting massive cuts from CDC and NIH and other similar programs.
Moscow Mitch is doing his grim reaper act on Democratic proposals to help people who need financial help to not go to work sick.

If anything even close to this happens over the next year or so, I suspect it will be the end of the GOP. And their anti-science, anti-intellectualism, and small government ideology.

 

[Derec]

US is behind countries such as China and Italy. That is a good thing. Scientists are furiously testing existing drugs for anti-SARS-CoV-2 potential, and we have a better chance of benefiting from it the later the peak comes.
Doctors fight coronavirus outbreak with drugs that target HIV, malaria and Ebola
Also the extreme efforts to slow down spread (cancelling sporting events and even school) would delay the peak. That would both spread out hospitalizations over time to a more manageable levels even if the total number is the same, but it also allows more time for new treatments to be available.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-live-body-37-days-113920222.html'

...
A new study in The Lancet medical journal published Wednesday found that the novel coronavirus lived in the respiratory tracts of some patients for more than five weeks. Some of the patients received antiviral medications but the drugs did not appear to shorten the virus's lifespan.

The 19 doctors who authored the study analyzed the medical records of 191 patients in China (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital), including the demographic, clinical, treatment and laboratory data of 137 coronavirus patients who were discharged and 54 patients who died in the hospital.
...

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Antiviral drugs do not seem to help. If you are hoping for a quick way out, don't bet the farm on it.

 

[Axulus]

NPR: Ashish Jha, who runs the Harvard Global Health Institute, says the response to the coronavirus has varied dramatically around the world.

…So how has the United States’ response been?

“Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that’s been affected,” Jha says.

He uses the words “stunning,” “fiasco” and “mind-blowing” to describe how bad it is.

“And I don’t understand it,” he says incredulously. “I still don’t understand why we don’t have extensive testing. Vietnam! Vietnam has tested more people than America has.” (He’s citing data from earlier this week. The U.S. has since started testing more widely, although exact figures still aren’t available at a national level.)

…Jha believes that the weekslong delay in deploying tests — at a time when numerous other tests were available around the world — has completely hampered the U.S. response to this crisis.

“Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can’t isolate people. You can’t do anything,” he says. “And so then we’re left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that’s the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It’s been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been.”

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...se-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/tr...ands-by-plan-to-cut-cdc-budget-by-15-percent/
...
President Donald Trump’s budget director stood by proposed budget cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) despite the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19, better known as the coronavirus.
This article originally appeared at Salon.

Russ Vought, the acting director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, told Rep. Matt Cartwright, D-Pa., during a congressional hearing on Tuesday that the administration does not plan on amending its 2021 budget. That budget proposes reducing Health and Human Services funding by $9.5 billion, in the process cutting $1.2 billion from the CDC’s budget (a reduction of 15%) and eliminating $35 million from the Infection Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund.
...

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OMFG! The ignorance! The ignorance! It is like a chimpanzee with a live grenade. Staggering incompetence.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...-dismiss-threat-of-coronavirus-164728793.html

...
As the coronavirus spreads throughout the United States and authorities warn of mass disruptions to daily life, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that pluralities of Americans believe the threat has been exaggerated and that their peers have been overreacting to the actual risk posed by the disease — a result largely driven by skepticism among Republicans.
According to the survey, which was conducted on March 10 and 11 — before the NBA suspended its season and the president addressed the nation from the Oval Office Wednesday evening — only 16 percent of Americans said they are “very worried” about coronavirus. Another 41 percent said they are “somewhat worried,” while 43 percent said they are “not very worried” or “not worried at all.” Forty-four percent of Americans believe the threat is exaggerated; 38 percent said it’s not. And a larger percentage of respondents said that most Americans are “overreacting to the actual risks” (36 percent) than “behaving appropriately” (30 percent) or “underestimating the risks” (20 percent).
...

On each of these questions, the Yahoo News/YouGov poll found a striking partisan split.
Forty-eight percent of Democrats said they were following the coronavirus news very closely; only 32 percent of Republicans said the same.
Twenty-nine percent of Democrats said the threat is exaggerated; among Republicans, that number was nearly 30 points higher (58 percent).
Seventy-four percent of Democrats said they are worried about the virus; only 45 percent of Republicans agreed.
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Avoid Republicans. Avoid gatherings of Republicans. Avoid conservative media. Ignorance is apparently contagious.

 

[southernhybrid]

How many threads do we need to discuss the scary virus? I don't which one to post what information in anymore.

 

[TSwizzle]

The more threads, the more scarier it becomes and the more opportunities to bash Trump

 

[Harry Bosch]

The more threads, the more scarier it becomes and the more opportunities to bash Trump

Yea, I have zero confidence in a leader who doesn't have basic understanding of science.

 

[TSwizzle]

oh, I did not know that. I appreciate you keeping me informed.

 

[Harry Bosch]

oh, I did not know that. I appreciate you keeping me informed.

No problem buddy!

 

[marc]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...-dismiss-threat-of-coronavirus-164728793.html

...
As the coronavirus spreads throughout the United States and authorities warn of mass disruptions to daily life, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that pluralities of Americans believe the threat has been exaggerated and that their peers have been overreacting to the actual risk posed by the disease — a result largely driven by skepticism among Republicans.
According to the survey, which was conducted on March 10 and 11 — before the NBA suspended its season and the president addressed the nation from the Oval Office Wednesday evening — only 16 percent of Americans said they are “very worried” about coronavirus. Another 41 percent said they are “somewhat worried,” while 43 percent said they are “not very worried” or “not worried at all.” Forty-four percent of Americans believe the threat is exaggerated; 38 percent said it’s not. And a larger percentage of respondents said that most Americans are “overreacting to the actual risks” (36 percent) than “behaving appropriately” (30 percent) or “underestimating the risks” (20 percent).
...

On each of these questions, the Yahoo News/YouGov poll found a striking partisan split.
Forty-eight percent of Democrats said they were following the coronavirus news very closely; only 32 percent of Republicans said the same.
Twenty-nine percent of Democrats said the threat is exaggerated; among Republicans, that number was nearly 30 points higher (58 percent).
Seventy-four percent of Democrats said they are worried about the virus; only 45 percent of Republicans agreed.
...

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Avoid Republicans. Avoid gatherings of Republicans. Avoid conservative media. Ignorance is apparently contagious.

Does the Darwin Awards have a category for group selection?

 

[Keith&Co.]

Does the Darwin Awards have a category for group selection?

Well,mit is gene POOLS that evolve, not individuals, so it's the same award whether it's you, or 'all y'all.'

 

[Derec]

A new study in The Lancet medical journal published Wednesday found that the novel coronavirus lived in the respiratory tracts of some patients for more than five weeks.

They found that the virus was present in the bodies of patients with severe disease status for an average of 19 days, and inside the bodies of patients with critical disease status for an average of 24 days. Overall, the virus was detected for an average of 20 days in patients who were eventually discharged from the hospital. In the respiratory tracts of patients who died, coronavirus was detectable until death.
The shortest length of time the virus lived in the respiratory tract of a survivor was eight days. And perhaps most shocking of all, in some cases, the virus persisted for as long as 37 days.

Well, "lived" is putting it too strong, as viruses are not technically living. And 37 days (just more than 5 weeks) seems to be an outlier. Averages are much lower.
However, this is most important

CBS News medical contributor Dr. David Agus says using this study's findings to extrapolate how long a person might be contagious is probably taking it a step too far.

Merely detecting virus particles or some of its components does not mean that viable virions persist that long. To show that, they would have to be grown in a suitable cell culture.

Some of the patients received antiviral medications but the drugs did not appear to shorten the virus's lifespan.

This too is too simplistic. For one, there are many antivirals. That's why different antivirals are being furiously tested by the medical community. And second, even if these medications do not decrease the period virus is detectable, they may still reduce the severity of the illness (reducing the number of people needing ICU or even ventilation support would be a major breakthrough in itself!) and the infectious period.

Antiviral drugs do not seem to help. If you are hoping for a quick way out, don't bet the farm on it.

Quick? No. But just because some antivirals they tried to use in China at the beginning of the epidemic did not seem to work does not mean the antiviral approach overall is fruitless.

 

[Worldtraveller]

One million? That's nuthin. According to at least one CNBC business 'guru', "The projected death of 11 million Americans would be a fair price to pay for better long term stock growth."

 

[fromderinside]

Here goes. I'm predictun' fewer that 100 k 'mericun peebol will die from NORA. So I'm predicktun recession and only modest recovery from it. Check yer ticker.

 

[Politesse]

He also doesn't understand epidemiology. No, the mortality would not be identical between a short term and long term pandemic.

 

[Politesse]

Here goes. I'm predictun' fewer that 100 k 'mericun peebol will die from NORA. So I'm predicktun recession and only modest recovery from it. Check yer ticker.

Scientist, are you?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The more threads, the more scarier it becomes and the more opportunities to bash Trump

Yea, I have zero confidence in a leader who doesn't have basic understanding of science.

The guy is scientifically illiterate, that's a fact. Good thing is there is enough freedom in the U.S. that he's forced to do the scientific thing. There won't be one million deaths simply because so many people are taking so many necessary steps to keep all those deaths from happening.

Trumpo the Clown wanted to do what the Communist Party in China originally wanted to do, just ignore all the scary doctors. Trumpo the Clown isn't getting his way and he'll be lavishing credit on himself nonetheless.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Some of the patients received antiviral medications but the drugs did not appear to shorten the virus's lifespan.

This too is too simplistic. For one, there are many antivirals. That's why different antivirals are being furiously tested by the medical community. And second, even if these medications do not decrease the period virus is detectable, they may still reduce the severity of the illness (reducing the number of people needing ICU or even ventilation support would be a major breakthrough in itself!) and the infectious period.

Antiviral drugs do not seem to help. If you are hoping for a quick way out, don't bet the farm on it.

Quick? No. But just because some antivirals they tried to use in China at the beginning of the epidemic did not seem to work does not mean the antiviral approach overall is fruitless.

I actually agree with you. I started skimming the paper to find which ones they tried. It looks like "antivirals (lopinavir/ritonavir; table 2)."

I will probably get clobbered over the head in saying this here, but I think they should have also tried black elderberry extract. I went out and bought some the other day as a last resort in case there is no other option. Now I will duck for cover.