Polls of the Presidential Race

[Elixir]

I'm not too worried. I think as time goes on, more of those who were or are associated with Trump will be charged with crimes.

They already have been, and it doesn't move the needle one bit with Trump's idiot followers.

... just today 73 former GOP National Security Advisors came out against Trump. Jared Kushner is under investigation for perjury. The Lincoln Project is doing a great job of showing Trumps's corruption.

DEEPSTATEFAKENEWSRINO hysteria renders all of that moot.

I think it's going to be okay.

I wish I could see how that's going to happen...

Plus, Biden will certainly win some or most of the toss up states.

Unless he wins them all by high double digit margins, they will be contested.

He's even in a tie in Georgia

...which will be a(nother) example of how Democratz rigged the election. Bet on it.

and believe it or not, our idiot SOS has just agreed to put up a lot more ballot boxes if counties ask for them.

Maybe they're confident in their voting machines, and/or have plans for the contents of those drop boxes.

... if for some reason the mail doesn't come through, we all plan on voting in person if we must.

By the time it is evident that ballots already cast by mail won't count, it will be too late. You can't just say "my mailed ballot looks like it's not going to make it so I'll vote again in person"".

 

[southernhybrid]

They already have been, and it doesn't move the needle one bit with Trump's idiot followers.



DEEPSTATEFAKENEWSRINO hysteria renders all of that moot.

I think it's going to be okay.

I wish I could see how that's going to happen...

Plus, Biden will certainly win some or most of the toss up states.

Unless he wins them all by high double digit margins, they will be contested.

He's even in a tie in Georgia

...which will be a(nother) example of how Democratz rigged the election. Bet on it.

and believe it or not, our idiot SOS has just agreed to put up a lot more ballot boxes if counties ask for them.

Maybe they're confident in their voting machines, and/or have plans for the contents of those drop boxes.

... if for some reason the mail doesn't come through, we all plan on voting in person if we must.

By the time it is evident that ballots already cast by mail won't count, it will be too late. You can't just say "my mailed ballot looks like it's not going to make it so I'll vote again in person"".

I'm not worried about the people who work the polls as they aren't all Republicans. I know a few of them personally. Although poll workers aren't supposed to discuss their politics, I know two of them well enough to know they are both Democrats. One of them is a friend who I've known for many years. So, I'm not worried about the count. Our machine are new. The problem with the primaries was that there were too many poll workers who didn't know how to use them and a few of them didn't work at all. The new machines leave a printed out paper receipt, but that slows things down significantly. Our idiot SOS didn't do a good job of training people. I don't think it was voter suppression this time. I think it was pure incompetence. He has received so much criticism that I think he's trying to do better this time.

We have three full weeks of early voting, but for some reason, there are always people who procrastinate and wait until Election Day. If they do that, there will be long lines, especially in Atlanta metro. I live a little bit outside of ATL metro, but before we had early voting, I did have to wait 45 minutes to vote a couple of times. It will be much worse in larger districts.

OF course, we are all concerned about this election. A lot will depend on turnout. I seriously doubt that the large number of Black residents who sat out the last election will sit out this one. Biden, unlike Hillary, has always been extremely popular among the majority of Black citizens, especially those who are middle aged or older.

Even those who aren't that fond of him, plan on voting for him, with few exceptions. Plus, they have learned what it's like having a racist asshole for president.
Most of the Black folks who I know personally are very savvy voters who take the vote seriously. But, sadly, there are still some who never vote. That goes for both Black and White Georgians. Voter apathy is a huge problem here. That could be what hurts us the most. If everyone would vote, we'd be a blue state again, like we were when I moved here.

The other problem is that I've known too many younger voters who think they have to love and be excited about. a candidate before they will vote for him/her. My 42 year old neighbor is like that this year. She despises Trump but hasn't been excited about Biden. She told me she might sit this election out. I'm trying to convince her not to do that. I know another woman like that. She registered to vote for the first time in her life. She's 50. Now, she telling us that she's not going to vote, even though she hates Trump. I don't get it. I also have a friend with two middle aged children who have never voted. It's crazy.

I read about 50 comments in the NYTimes this morning. I was amazed at how many people said they were luke warm on Biden until they heard his speech last night. They are now very excited about the prospect of having him for president. So many people were believing the BS about Biden's cognitive decline. That's changing. Of course, those who only watch Fox News aren't going to see the truth, but most of those folks are already hard core Trumpers.

Sadly, there are too many brainwashed Trump supporters who don't realize they have been manipulated by Trump and the Republicans.

 

[Gun Nut]

But remember, it's not 50,000 dead, like that careless Obama woman said. It's over 70,000. Now that's a real milestone. His new mantra ought to be, "I could kill 70,000 people out in the street, and I wouldn't lose a single vote!"

I think the point was that HE is responsible for 50 of the 70 thousand through his actions and inactions.

 

[Elixir]

I don't think it was voter suppression this time. I think it was pure incompetence.

What kind of deal is this, where incompetence is the brightest possible outlook?

they have learned what it's like having a racist asshole for president.

It is truly amazing to me that there are still people in this country who haven't learned at all. But there are millions of them, utterly convinced that the TrumPutin reality is ... reality, and reality is fake news. My wife just returned from a visit to a local fruit stand, situated on the side of our main tourist highway. The attendant was a twenty-something young woman, who related to my wife how the tourists, seeing her in the sweltering heat wearing a mask, keep telling her "oh honey this whole pandemic thing will be over by election day". And she's like "WTF??? It's a GLOBAL pandemic!"
Yes, the tourist population is self-selected for people who are pre-conditioned to "not believe in the pandemic" but still...

Most of the Black folks who I know personally are very savvy voters who take the vote seriously. But, sadly, there are still some who never vote. ... If everyone would vote, we'd be a blue state again, like we were when I moved here.

That is a widespread phenomenon and is a main pillar of the success of the propaganda that has proliferated in the US during the Trump Crime Family era.

The other problem is that I've known too many younger voters who think they have to love and be excited about. a candidate before they will vote for him/her. My 42 year old neighbor is like that this year. She despises Trump but hasn't been excited about Biden. She told me she might sit this election out. I'm trying to convince her not to do that. I know another woman like that. She registered to vote for the first time in her life. She's 50. Now, she telling us that she's not going to vote, even though she hates Trump.

I applaud you for leaning into that problem. Keep it up! As days go by now, I have become more and more strident with people like that, guilt-tripping them for complicity in the destruction of American democracy, pleading with them, threatening them with terrible consequences... If I can persuade only one of them to get their ass off the couch and cast a ballot, I'll be happy.

I read about 50 comments in the NYTimes this morning. I was amazed at how many people said they were luke warm on Biden until they heard his speech last night

I am surprised and dismayed that NYT readers (I assume that commenters are readers) could be lukewarm about ANY possibility of getting rid of Trump.

Of course, those who only watch Fox News aren't going to see the truth, but most of those folks are already hard core Trumpers.
Sadly, there are too many brainwashed Trump supporters who don't realize they have been manipulated by Trump and the Republicans.

Yup. It is definitely a turnout game at this point. Nobody is going to change their opinion about Trump at this point, but if they can become more excited about Biden for whatever reason, maybe it can drive some turnout.
I despair of the bar that he would have to clear in the election, and truly wonder if any electoral result can lead to a peaceful transfer of power on January 20th. Cornered rats are surprisingly vicious.

 

[ZiprHead]

If biden wins Florida he wins

It was Florida that [ thanks be to Zoroaster ] who kept the con artist Al Gore out of the WH.

Nope. That was the Supreme court.

 

[southernhybrid]

What kind of deal is this, where incompetence is the brightest possible outlook?

I never said it was a good thing, but those who start out as incompetent can sometimes learn and become more competent. Outright voter suppression is a plan to purposely defeat the opposition by keeping people from voting. I think the SOS is trying to improve things after he received so much criticism for the horrible mess during the primaries. Besides, his incompetence hurt both Democrats and Republicans.

Voter apathy didn't start here with Trump. It's been a problem for at least as long as I've lived in Georgia. I once helped two Black folks register to vote when Obama was running for president. A few years later, the younger person, a woman I worked with, missed the midterm election. I asked her why she did't vote and she told me that she had to work on Election Day. We had a close enough relationship that I could say what I really thought, so I told her that if she would spend less time watching Atlanta Hip Hop and spend a little bit of time reading or watching the news, she'd know that we have 3 full weeks of early voting in Georgia. She had no idea, but at least she promised me that she would never miss another election again. ( I wasn't trying to stereotype her for the hip hop thing. I just knew that she and a couple of the other young workers used to watch it when they had a few minutes of free time or when they were folding the residents laundry while watching tv. ) But, it's shocking that some voters don't even know that we have three full weeks, including one Saturday and one Sunday to vote in every single election here.

I do agree that turnout will determine the winner, but if Trump loses, I feel sure he will either leave or be dragged out of the WH. He doesn't have to concede. He can call it rigged all he wants, but if Biden wins, he won't be president come January 20th.

So, despite my optimism, I do have concerns. That's why we all need to do whatever we can to encourage people to vote whenever we have the opportunity.

And, sadly, more of the White people in my area are putting out their Trump signs. Since the demographics in my area have changed a lot over the past 4 years, I do wonder what my Black neighbors are thinking knowing they are living in close proximity to so many people who support a racist asshole. My older next door neighbor and I are the only ones with Biden signs in the yard. I've only done it because I don't want anyone to think that I'm a Trump supporter.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Since we're on page 49 of this thing, I'll admit right off that I don't know if this post is rehashing old ground. Anyway:
If Donald is deposed on 11/3, and if the black vote is shown to be a decisive demographic that finished him off, it will be, on the national scene, round 3 of the Big Shift. I'm counting Obama '08 and '12 as rounds 1 and 2. The coming 'minority majority' phase of U.S. history is set to hit in 2042, but the pre-shocks are already here. This will have some unavoidable consequences. On the Dem side, more power sharing in the form of more diverse cabinets, primary fields, and office holders, and hopefully a renewed emphasis on protecting the vote. And the potential for more demonstrations, rioting, street violence if progress is stalled or is perceived as superficial. On the Republican side, as the party is presently situated, entirely negative consequences -- more extreme forms of vote suppression, gas lighting, dog whistle speechifying, emphasis on resentment and reverse racism. As ugly as politics has become in Donaldus Magnus Regnum (Orange World), I think we're in for even more vicious, simplistic, hate-filled politics. (Ready for the onslaught from the Trumpies, now. Have at me.)

 

[Elixir]

Since we're on page 49 of this thing, I'll admit right off that I don't know if this post is rehashing old ground. Anyway:
If Donald is deposed on 11/3, and if the black vote is shown to be a decisive demographic that finished him off, it will be, on the national scene, round 3 of the Big Shift. I'm counting Obama '08 and '12 as rounds 1 and 2. The coming 'minority majority' phase of U.S. history is set to hit in 2042, but the pre-shocks are already here. This will have some unavoidable consequences. On the Dem side, more power sharing in the form of more diverse cabinets, primary fields, and office holders, and hopefully a renewed emphasis on protecting the vote. And the potential for more demonstrations, rioting, street violence if progress is stalled or is perceived as superficial. On the Republican side, as the party is presently situated, entirely negative consequences -- more extreme forms of vote suppression, gas lighting, dog whistle speechifying, emphasis on resentment and reverse racism. As ugly as politics has become in Donaldus Magnus Rectum (Orange World), I think we're in for even more vicious, simplistic, hate-filled politics. (Ready for the onslaught from the Trumpies, now. Have at me.)

FIFY

The Republican Party is now the Party of Subjugation. Their principle of greed dictates that they allow a perpetually increasing number of "others" to subjugate. And that will eventually place them in an untenable minority position in any representative government.
But in the meanwhile they can mitigate the undesirable side effects of their own greed by conscientiously attacking poor communities, widening the wealth gap, destroying public health infrastructures, maybe shopping around the far east for some more plagues and if possible, doing away with representative government altogether.
Meanwhile they can work on their own infrastructure priorities, like voter suppression, encouraging their inbred white evangelitards to keep reproducing like rabbits etc.. Who knows? With a good effort they might maintain power for decades beyond the 2042 horizon.

 

[angelo]

If biden wins Florida he wins

It was Florida that [ thanks be to Zoroaster ] who kept the con artist Al Gore out of the WH.

Nope. That was the Supreme court.

No, no! I say it was our lord god Zoroaster who ever so often meddles in mankind's affairs. for the good of mankind of course

 

[fromderinside]

Why does only your spam have a slippery sheen? I mean substitute Zoroaster for Supreme Court with a flip of the naysay tongue.

 

[angelo]

Okay, okay! It was the Supreme court. But who's to say Ra........sorry, Zoroaster didn't have a hand in it. I'm kidding of course, but I believe the polls are tightening somewhat, and the Trump may even pull ahead after the debates expose Groper as not fit to run a chook raffle let alone be potus.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Are you implying that Joe believes in Obama's Kenyan origins, Kamala's non-citizen status, hydroxychloroquine, the Deeeep State, Obama's wiretaps, Kim's innocence in the fatal beating of an Ohio man, the Saudi crown prince's innocence in a reporter's dismemberment, Putin's noninvolvement in our elections, the fraud involved in mail-in votes, Ted Cruz's dad and the JFK assassination, Trump's victory margin in the '16 popular vote, the omnipresent Antifa, QAnon, or the imminent disappearance of Covid? If so, he is manifestly unfit to issue driver's licenses in Biloxi.

 

[Swammerdami]

... Prediction markets can be used as a quick and surprisingly accurate summary of trends. The picture painted at Betfair.com is a little disturbing:

On July 17, the chances for November winner inferred from Betfair were
Biden 60.4%
Trump 34.6%

This was up sharply from May, when Trump was still in the lead.

However, Trump has risen over the past month:
August 17
Biden 56.7%
Trump 41.2%
Harris 1.1%

$76 million has been wagered just on this one Betfair market, enough to make the result useful as a predictor.

Seven days later (and with $80.3 million wagered), we see Trump continuing to rise. Did the D's get too small a "bump" from their convention?
Biden 55.1%
Trump 42.9%
Harris 0.8%

 

[Swammerdami]

Electoral Vote Calculua

If Biden wins Arizona or North Carolina, that probably means he won handily, and didn't need AZ or NC.
If Trump wins Nevada, Maine or Minnesota, that probably means he won handily, and didn't need NV, ME or MN.
This leaves just five states to worry about. Biden needs 39 evs from this group to achieve 270 and win:

• Florida 29 evs
• Pennsylvania 20 evs
• Michigan 16 evs
• Wisconsin 10 evs
• New Hampshire 4 evs

If Biden wins Florida — as now seems likely — he'll need just one of the three tipping Rust Belt states, PA, MI, or WI.
If Biden wins all three of {PA, MI and WI}, he wins without Florida.
If Trump wins Florida but only WI from the D-likely Rust Belt, then little New Hampshire will decide the election.
(Latest polls show Trump neck-and-neck in Minnesota. If Trump takes that state, re-analyze the above list with Biden needing 49 evs from the group.)

The above assumes that the election will proceed "normally." Instead there are likely to be disputes in some states, and the possibility of controversy or compromise before electoral slates are selected.

 

[angelo]

Are you implying that Joe believes in Obama's Kenyan origins, Kamala's non-citizen status, hydroxychloroquine, the Deeeep State, Obama's wiretaps, Kim's innocence in the fatal beating of an Ohio man, the Saudi crown prince's innocence in a reporter's dismemberment, Putin's noninvolvement in our elections, the fraud involved in mail-in votes, Ted Cruz's dad and the JFK assassination, Trump's victory margin in the '16 popular vote, the omnipresent Antifa, QAnon, or the imminent disappearance of Covid? If so, he is manifestly unfit to issue driver's licenses in Biloxi.

You forgot to add the 400 million shipped to the terrorist regime of Iran in the dead of night, by the Obongo regime through third parties such as the Swiss so as to not make it look like a ransom for the release of 4 American citizens held captive for many months by Iran. That it also coincided with the " Iran nuclear negotiations" was just coincidence..........right?

 

[Swammerdami]

You forgot to add the 400 million shipped to the terrorist regime of Iran in the dead of night, by the Obongo regime through third parties such as the Swiss so as to not make it look like a ransom for the release of 4 American citizens held captive for many months by Iran. That it also coincided with the " Iran nuclear negotiations" was just coincidence..........right?

I'm trying to interpolate levels of ignorance.
@ Anyone — Does angelo realize that the moneys he speaks of had long been covenanted to the Islamic Republic of Iran by top American financial institutions?

 

[ideologyhunter]

Does it matter? He added that nuttiness about freeing Iranian assets because he didn't want to respond to the list he was supposedly responding to -- a list of incredibly zany things our President has asserted. His response, which was to mischaracterize the asset release, as Repubs have done ever since it happened, had absolutely nothing to do with what I listed. Defensive smoke screen. Very Trumpian.

 

[Patooka]

You forgot to add the 400 million shipped to the terrorist regime of Iran in the dead of night, by the Obongo regime through third parties such as the Swiss so as to not make it look like a ransom for the release of 4 American citizens held captive for many months by Iran. That it also coincided with the " Iran nuclear negotiations" was just coincidence..........right?

I'm trying to interpolate levels of ignorance.
@ Anyone — Does angelo realize that the moneys he speaks of had long been covenanted to the Islamic Republic of Iran by top American financial institutions?

Angelo doesn't give a fuck about facts or reality. Every couple of months he brings up Iran as a complete non sequitor, although the dollar figure he claims fluctuates and his bullshit assertions are consistently debunked. To say he is like a sad pathetic broken record on this issue is a depressing understatement.

 

[Elixir]

You forgot to add the 400 million shipped to the terrorist regime of Iran in the dead of night, by the Obongo regime through third parties such as the Swiss so as to not make it look like a ransom for the release of 4 American citizens held captive for many months by Iran. That it also coincided with the " Iran nuclear negotiations" was just coincidence..........right?

I'm trying to interpolate levels of ignorance.
@ Anyone — Does angelo realize that the moneys he speaks of had long been covenanted to the Islamic Republic of Iran by top American financial institutions?

Angelo doesn't give a fuck about facts or reality. Every couple of months he brings up Iran as a complete non sequitor, although the dollar figure he claims fluctuates and his bullshit assertions are consistently debunked. To say he is like a sad pathetic broken record on this issue is a depressing understatement.

Some people superstitiously believe in an Oort Cloud of lurkers, some of whom have never been exposed to their counterfactual bullshit.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Latest 538 polls show Biden ahead by +9.3%.

Michigan - Biden - +8.0%
Wisconsin - Biden - +7.1%
Pennsylvania - Biden - +6.3%
Florida - Biden - +5.9%

Only 69 days until election day.