Polls of the Presidential Race

[southernhybrid]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#!

The above link has a long list of polls that took place this week, after Harris was announced as Biden's running mate. Biden is still ahead by a substantial margin in most of the polls.

In the most recent poll, he's ahead of Trump by 9 points. The list also includes some Senate polls and over all approval of Democrats v. Republicans. So, it doesn't look as if choosing Harris has made any difference one way or the other.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#!

The above link has a long list of polls that took place this week, after Harris was announced as Biden's running mate. Biden is still ahead by a substantial margin in most of the polls.

In the most recent poll, he's ahead of Trump by 9 points. The list also includes some Senate polls and over all approval of Democrats v. Republicans. So, it doesn't look as if choosing Harris has made any difference one way or the other.

This is about convincing people to vote, not to change who they are voting for.

 

[Swammerdami]

Are Polls of the Presidential Race on-topic in this thread? If not, that's OK: my post isn't on polls either, but a closely related topic.

Prediction markets can be used as a quick and surprisingly accurate summary of trends. The picture painted at Betfair.com is a little disturbing:

On July 17, the chances for November winner inferred from Betfair were
Biden 60.4%
Trump 34.6%

This was up sharply from May, when Trump was still in the lead.

However, Trump has risen over the past month:
August 17
Biden 56.7%
Trump 41.2%
Harris 1.1%

$76 million has been wagered just on this one Betfair market, enough to make the result useful as a predictor.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

... It’s actually not that easy. But for me it was easy. And that’s not an easy question. In other words, they ask it to you, they give you five names and you have to repeat them. And that’s OK. If you repeat them out of order, that’s OK. But, you know, it’s not as good. But then when you go back about 20, 25 minute later and they say go 'Go back to that question...' and you go, 'Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.' They say, ‘That’s amazing. How did you do that?’

"20, 25 minutes later" ? The test is designed so that the delay is five minutes. It sounds like the Leader of the Free World took an inordinate amount of time on some of the easy questions.

 

[angelo]

[derail removed]

 

[ZiprHead]

... It’s actually not that easy. But for me it was easy. And that’s not an easy question. In other words, they ask it to you, they give you five names and you have to repeat them. And that’s OK. If you repeat them out of order, that’s OK. But, you know, it’s not as good. But then when you go back about 20, 25 minute later and they say go 'Go back to that question...' and you go, 'Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.' They say, ‘That’s amazing. How did you do that?’

"20, 25 minutes later" ? The test is designed so that the delay is five minutes. It sounds like the Leader of the Free World took an inordinate amount of time on some of the easy questions.

I just listened yesterday to this interview by David Pakman of Bandy Lee, forensic psychiatrist and author of The Dangerous Case Of Donald Trump. She said Trump actually took this test 2 1/2 years ago under Dr. Ronny Jackson. The interview is well worth a listen.

[YOUTUBE]https://youtu.be/ifUErTNJDOQ[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are Polls of the Presidential Race on-topic in this thread? If not, that's OK: my post isn't on polls either, but a closely related topic.

Prediction markets can be used as a quick and surprisingly accurate summary of trends. The picture painted at Betfair.com is a little disturbing:

On July 17, the chances for November winner inferred from Betfair were
Biden 60.4%
Trump 34.6%

This was up sharply from May, when Trump was still in the lead.

However, Trump has risen over the past month:
August 17
Biden 56.7%
Trump 41.2%
Harris 1.1%

It is odd how Trump's numbers have improved. Granted, the new cases of Covid-19 are starting to quell again with the paused reopenings that he pressured to open in the first place. The death toll apparently is transitioning from tragedy to statistic. America, or at least the idiots that can consider Trump okay as long as his policies aren't currently leading to 1500+ deaths a day, has normalized bullshit failed leadership.

It seems all the bullshit of trying to equate Talib as the face of the Democrat Party have worked and enough Americans are afraid of a radical Democrat Party that doesn't exist in our reality. The idea of Trump winning re-election entices me to think about moving as it'd be an indicator that enough Americans have been completely transformed into bots. .

 

[KeepTalking]

It's pretty fucking obvious you haven't passed a cognitive test either, so shut the fuck up about it.

I'm not running to become the leader of the free world. Groper and Cuntala are!

The test is not a requirement for running for the leader of the free world, it is required when there is a concern by a Doctor that their patient may be suffering from cognitive impairment. No other candidate for President has ever been required to take such a test, and the fact that Hair Fuhrer had to do so only speaks badly for him, not for anyone who has never had to take such a test. It indicates that his Doctor was sufficiently concerned that Cheato Mussolini was suffering from cognitive impairment.

Also, at least Biden is running for leader of the free world, the Gropenfuhrer is running for Dictator of the Fascist States of America. Now take your misogynist "Cuntala" bullshit with you as you fuck off back to the hole you crawled out of.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Are Polls of the Presidential Race on-topic in this thread? If not, that's OK: my post isn't on polls either, but a closely related topic.

Prediction markets can be used as a quick and surprisingly accurate summary of trends. The picture painted at Betfair.com is a little disturbing:

On July 17, the chances for November winner inferred from Betfair were
Biden 60.4%
Trump 34.6%

This was up sharply from May, when Trump was still in the lead.

However, Trump has risen over the past month:
August 17
Biden 56.7%
Trump 41.2%
Harris 1.1%

$76 million has been wagered just on this one Betfair market, enough to make the result useful as a predictor.

I've been following along on Predictit. Bit of separation after announcing Harris as his understudy.

 

[Elixir]

I've been following along on Predictit. Bit of separation after announcing Harris as his understudy.

Interesting fine print at Predictit:

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: N/A

So here we are at around Christmas time, Trump still insisting he won ("I only lost because it was rigged and the result is not valid") but Predictit pays off the Biden bets at the expense of the Trump betters... then what? Will they try to sue? Or will they wait to see what if anything happens on Jan 21? What if Trump's coup attempt then succeeds?

 

[Swammerdami]

I cannot access Predictit.org from Thailand. :-( My 'Net guru isn't sure why, but Thai government censorship may be one possibility.

I've been following along on Predictit. Bit of separation after announcing Harris as his understudy.

Interesting fine print at Predictit:

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: N/A

So here we are at around Christmas time, Trump still insisting he won ("I only lost because it was rigged and the result is not valid") but Predictit pays off the Biden bets at the expense of the Trump betters... then what? Will they try to sue? Or will they wait to see what if anything happens on Jan 21? What if Trump's coup attempt then succeeds?

BetFair's rules aren't quite clear, but it sounds like they pay off to the "projected" winner, before subsequent Trumpist shenanigans. Thus Trump's 41% chance does NOT include the threat that a pro-Trump coup led by DoJ, DHS and Republican judges and Governors in swing states will keep that Dictator in power.

Event Start Time
03 November 2020, 18:00
Win Only Market
...

Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

 

[SLD]

CNN poll now shows Trump only 4 points behind. Within the MoE. It’s deja vu all over again.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

CNN poll now shows Trump only 4 points behind. Within the MoE. It’s deja vu all over again.

With Harris on the ticket, the PA/MI/WI block should go blue again and Biden wins the popular and Electoral Vote.

It is incredible how "lemming like" conservatives are. Tariffs, massive deficit spending (before Covid-19), pal'ing with Kim Jong Un and whatever he was doing with Vladmir Putin, huge handouts to farmers because of his failed trade wars... but they can't vote for a Democrat.

Which really means the only shit they care about are judges who want to make abortion illegal (I'm sorry, up to the states) and to legalize faith based discrimination. That has been his only accomplishment, and really, that wasn't as much him as it was McConnell.

 

[Swammerdami]

I'm not sure what bias The Atlantic has.

The Atlantic is the best magazine published in the U.S.A. By far.

IIRC, they have endorsed a candidate for President only twice in their long distinguished history: Abraham Lincoln and Hillary Clinton

 

[SLD]

CNN poll now shows Trump only 4 points behind. Within the MoE. It’s deja vu all over again.

With Harris on the ticket, the PA/MI/WI block should go blue again and Biden wins the popular and Electoral Vote.

It is incredible how "lemming like" conservatives are. Tariffs, massive deficit spending (before Covid-19), pal'ing with Kim Jong Un and whatever he was doing with Vladmir Putin, huge handouts to farmers because of his failed trade wars... but they can't vote for a Democrat.

Which really means the only shit they care about are judges who want to make abortion illegal (I'm sorry, up to the states) and to legalize faith based discrimination. That has been his only accomplishment, and really, that wasn't as much him as it was McConnell.

I think you’re naive. VP’s usually have no impact on voters. People vote for a President, not a veep. She’ll have minimal impact. Plus Trump is going to work hard to suppress the vote in key battle ground states. He’s already working to steal the election. The economy is regaining steam, and that has the biggest impact on voters. Biden’s basic absence from the news cycle hasn’t worked. They’re counting on Trump screwing up. But what is really going on is that his base just loves him more. They don’t care about his shitforbrains tweets. They don’t even have Twitter. Living in Trumpland, I hear it all the time. He is the greatest. He is just sticking it to those elites. They hate the Ivy League assholes who make all the money and have all the power in DC. They vote for him, because it’s their way to say fuck you to the establishment that hates him. There are parades for him on his birthday. Who even knows when Biden’s birthday is?

Overall, I am not optimistic about Biden’s chances. He’ll get a slight bump from the convention and then start to sink in the polls slowly.

 

[Treedbear]

... But what is really going on is that his base just loves him more. They don’t care about his shitforbrains tweets. They don’t even have Twitter. Living in Trumpland, I hear it all the time. He is the greatest. He is just sticking it to those elites. They hate the Ivy League assholes who make all the money and have all the power in DC. They vote for him, because it’s their way to say fuck you to the establishment that hates him. ...

That's the truth. Even here in the northeast Trump supporters by and large couldn't be less interested in following politics. But they love to blame other people for their problems and Trump gives them plenty of that.

ETA - I happen to be watching an interview on CSPAN with CT Dem Jim Himes and WA Dem Pramila Jayapal and they're both agreeing on how they screwed up so that now union halls are pro Trump when their concerns used to be the basic platform of the Dems. Himes even mentioned the mistakes of using terms like deplorables and calling people bigoted when they are personally struggling with the issues we all are. That's why I liked last night's Democratic convention. There's a chance that it made some Independents and Rep fence sitters consider the need for a change. And it's also the reason I cringe when I think about what giving the Clintons the spotlight will do to forfeit those gains.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Did Trump build the wall... a little bit. Did Mexico pay for it? Nope.
Did Trump repeal and replace ACA. Didn't even have a replacement.
Did Trump bring back production jobs to the US? No, but the economy he inherited helped add a few more jobs for a while before that fell through, before Covid-19.
Did Trump start getting rid of the US debt? Heck, he was averaging near $1 trillion deficits a year, BEFORE COVID-19.

These were his four major running planks. He didn't come close to any of them... and the red MAGA hat wearing supporters are all fired up for four more years of dry humping with Kim Jng Un and wishing sex traffickers well.

 

[Politesse]

Did Trump build the wall... a little bit. Did Mexico pay for it? Nope.
Did Trump repeal and replace ACA. Didn't even have a replacement.
Did Trump bring back production jobs to the US? No, but the economy he inherited helped add a few more jobs for a while before that fell through, before Covid-19.
Did Trump start getting rid of the US debt? Heck, he was averaging near $1 trillion deficits a year, BEFORE COVID-19.

These were his four major running planks. He didn't come close to any of them... and the red MAGA hat wearing supporters are all fired up for four more years of dry humping with Kim Jng Un and wishing sex traffickers well.

Those were his OFFICIAL policy points. Unofficially, he was running on the appeal of having a populist white nationalist in the White House, and undoing as many progressive reforms as possible. He has achieved those two things in spades.

 

[angelo]

I'm not sure what bias The Atlantic has.

The Atlantic is the best magazine published in the U.S.A. By far.

IIRC, they have endorsed a candidate for President only twice in their long distinguished history: Abraham Lincoln and Hillary Clinton

It would be interesting to know why the hell they endorsed crooked Hillary back then. Which would have meant an almost third term for Obama's meekness and America last policy.

 

[Patooka]

I'm not sure what bias The Atlantic has.

The Atlantic is the best magazine published in the U.S.A. By far.

IIRC, they have endorsed a candidate for President only twice in their long distinguished history: Abraham Lincoln and Hillary Clinton

It would be interesting to know why the hell they endorsed crooked Hillary back then. Which would have meant an almost third term for Obama's meekness and America last policy.

You're right. It's a good thing the world isn't laughing at America now. The US has a leader that the world treats with respect.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Forget respect. Love. In London, they have a flying icon of Trump that they proudly fly every time he's in town.