Post 2022 Election

[ZiprHead]

Biden has low approval ratings.

Why should we believe the polls about Biden when the polls about the midterms were so wrong?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Biden has low approval ratings.

Why should we believe the polls about Biden when the polls about the midterms were so wrong?

I’d say it is more about care verses believe. W, Obama, Trump all had low approval. All either won or came close to winning reelection.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Derec, it is quite important to read that post in complete context. Taking one point and running with it is nonsense.

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?!

Dobbs prevented a Red Wave from materializing.

Did it? I never saw this huge wave. The AM radio was ablast with grandiose predictions, but at least, the tsunami was going to be ankle deep, many wins by small margins.

GOP Senate.

But was it? This map was always a tough map for the GOP. The GOP had numerous seats in states that were vulnerable. The Democrats, not as much. Especially in light of idiots the GOP threw against the Dems. That wasn't Dobbs. A Dobbs influenced Democrat comeback included OH and WI going back to blue.

Lee Zeldin governor. Even Kari Lake governor.

There is little evidence at all that Lake would have won with or without Dobbs. Lake lost a tight race, much like Trump did. Dobbs appeared to have zero impact.

It would have been a shellacking to shellac the malarkey out of the Dem Party.

In some states there was a few point bounce. Not much more than that. In OH and PA, women were outvoted by men. The GOP lost because their candidates sucked ass. Where the ass sucking wasn't large, the GOP saw victories.

Biden has low approval ratings.

So did W in '02. Obama was defeated due to ACA being absolutely smeared by the right-wing press.

He let himself be led by the loony fringe of his own party - Cory Bush sleeping on Capitol steps was enough to cause Biden to extend the eviction moratorium that was bad policy, bad politics and which he knew was illegal.

Man, you are obsessed to the point of blindness.

In general, Biden let COVID spending and other programs (increased child tax credit, greatly increased unemployment, 4th stimulus, student loan repayment pause) continue long past the point after the economy reopened, causing massive inflation.

For fuck sakes, inflation was up everywhere across the globe. Europe doesn't have to deal with student loan issues because they don't have insane standards for how people should pay for college. And unemployment didn't go up, forget "greatly".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Anyone. Is AOC old enough?

Barely.
But she is a far-left DSA member who can only win in a D+25 type district.
She didn't even shown that she could win a statewide race even in a very blue state like NY.
Maybe she can challenge Gillibrand in 2024.

Is Kristen Sinema sane enough?

She is sane, but she is hated by the base so much I don't think she could win the primaries unless the progs split their vote with multiple candidates.
What other poor suggestions do you have? Bernie - third time the charm?

I think a good candidate will emerge from the primary process. We should not prejudge it with premature attempts at a coronation like in 2016. Both (Bill) Clinton and Obama were relatively unknown at this point in their respective cycles.

A minor nitpick. Obama gave a major speech at the 2004 Democrat Convention. His ascension to running for POTUS was carved in stone, and one needed to be brain dead not to know that guy was force to be reckoned with. Bill Clinton spoke in 1988 and overstayed his welcome. He was a rising star, but there wasn't the same fait accompli as that Obama had for a POTUS run. The question for Obama was whether to go in 2008 or wait for 2012/2016.

The Democrats have a very wide field, however.

Joe can’t win against a DeSantis IMzo unless he can pull economic rabbits out of a hat with a divided (at best) Congress,

The divided government might help him, as he now has an excuse to push back against the crazies in his own ranks that set too much of the agenda for the 1st half of Biden's 1st term. Safe to say, B³ and similar "drunken sailor" bills are DOA in the 118th Congress.

It is impossible to tell where the country will be in 12 months, forget 2 years. Biden can technically win reelection. He has the right bases under him and the Electoral College is definitely more favorable to the Democrats because states where people live vote Democrat. If Biden isn't the candidate, that process needs to be smooth and non-controversial. A DeSantis or Trump Presidency will be a big problem as the GOP will try every trick in the book to delay judicial nominees.

 

[Elixir]

I am going to reserve all judgment, now that I have heard the Republicans' vision for the next two years.
After laying awake for months on end worrying about Hunter Biden's laptop, it is such a relief to know that the full force of the United States House of Representatives will dedicate 100% of their time and energy doing what we elected them to do!
Fuck this noise about inflation, the economy, immigration, crime, health care costs, infrastructure needs and all those other distractions Democrats have been trying to foist off on the unsuspecting public - now we have some REAL representatives, ready willing and able to address what TRULY matters to all PATRIOTIC 'MURKINS:
HUNTER BIDEN'S LAPTOP!
The Glory Days of the New GQP are upon us!

Cory Bush sleeping on Capitol steps was enough to cause Biden to extend the eviction moratorium that was bad policy, bad politics and which he knew was illegal.

And all because of HUNTER BIDEN'S LAPTOP! I bet Joe wouldn't dare do that today, now that we have the diligent fascist watchdogs on duty, ready to bash him over the head with HUNTER BIDEN'S LAPTOP!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The problem with the Laptop is that, much like Trump's bullshit claims on the election being utterly indefensible in court... the laptop and the chain of custody is going to be very problematic. Granted, Benghazi was never this conspiracy the right-wing tried to imply it was, but it did make for enough of a faux scandal to hurt Clinton in the 2016 election.

 

[Elixir]

the laptop and the chain of custody is going to be very problematic.

Well DUH! That's why it is going to take every resource that the Republican House can muster for the next two years, to make sure we get to the bottom of the HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP! scandal.

 

[Swammerdami]

Are pundits guessing yet which party will win the White House in 2024? My guess is the GOP will win.

• The economic outlook is likely to still be grim 18 months from now. Recession and/or continued inflation are likely. Many experts are predicting any or all of (a) a financial crisis as bad as 2008 or worse, (b) continued drops in the valuations of stocks and other assets, (c) solvency issues in big companies as interest rates soar.
• Republicans wanting Biden to fail may actively oppose efforts to pull the country out of this economic morass. They will almost certainly use Nay votes on spending and debt ceiling bills to embarrass and hinder the U.S. government. While unlikely, it cannot be ruled out that Republican malice and fiscal irresponsibility will cause the U.S. Dollar to lose its psychological status as the World's Reserve Currency.
• Voter attention will focus on Bidengates I, II and III and other lies from the Hannity-Koch Bullshit Machine.
• War in Europe will lead to finger-pointing at "Democratic war mongers," worldwide malaise, continued high prices for food and oil, and so on.
• By 2024, most Americans will have forgotten the overturning of Roe v Wade, the J6 Insurrection and so on. Top news stories will be crime waves and race riots — imaginary or not — and Bidengates IV and V, whatever they turn out to be.
• There is no Democratic champion in view to capture the hearts of America with his or her charisma.

On this final point, note that JFK and Bill Clinton have been the only really charismatic and winning Democratic candidates in my lifetime. I have huge respect for Barack Obama and his superb charisma, but the simple fact is that MANY Americans will vote for a Black only when desperate. Obama could never have been elected except that the 2008 situation meant that ANY Democrat would win. Note that he almost lost in 2012 despite a very successful first term.

Is pessimism bad? Or are dire warnings our last best hope to turn the tide and maintain U.S. democracy?

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS ARE FUCKED Version
. . .

It is bad, really bad. I mean, you can't label an adjective to bad to show how bad it is. Why? Well, multiple reasons.

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?! ... WTF?!

2) ... Anyone not voting against Trump weren't going out to vote ever. "SHIT!" I know, right! It means that the margins we saw in 2018, 2020, 2022 were as good as it seemingly can get. Even a fucking Astronaut won by only a handful of percentage points against a god damn fascist!
... The US House is gerrymandered. Florida is likewise. And then it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of becoming more partisan to one side.

3) 2024 is going to be a blood bath in the US Senate....

4) Forget about judicial nominations if the GOP win the Senate, but not the White House!

This is bad, real bad. The Democrats didn't repel a massive tsunami successfully... it was never going to be a massive red wave. And the best the Dems could do was generally make things even, while losing the House.

So I am not the only pessimist. Let us hope that such pessimism becomes a "call to arms." A blue wave in 2024 is still possible. But without it, history books of the future will mark the 2022 election as the end of American democracy.

 

[Politesse]

There is no Democratic champion in view to capture the hearts of America with his or her charisma.

And any contender for this role is despised by the Party leadership...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are pundits guessing yet which party will win the White House in 2024? My guess is the GOP will win.

• The economic outlook is likely to still be grim 18 months from now. Recession and/or continued inflation are likely. Many experts are predicting any or all of (a) a financial crisis as bad as 2008 or worse, (b) continued drops in the valuations of stocks and other assets, (c) solvency issues in big companies as interest rates soar.
• Republicans wanting Biden to fail may actively oppose efforts to pull the country out of this economic morass. They will almost certainly use Nay votes on spending and debt ceiling bills to embarrass and hinder the U.S. government. While unlikely, it cannot be ruled out that Republican malice and fiscal irresponsibility will cause the U.S. Dollar to lose its psychological status as the World's Reserve Currency.
• Voter attention will focus on Bidengates I, II and III and other lies from the Hannity-Koch Bullshit Machine.
• War in Europe will lead to finger-pointing at "Democratic war mongers," worldwide malaise, continued high prices for food and oil, and so on.
• By 2024, most Americans will have forgotten the overturning of Roe v Wade, the J6 Insurrection and so on.

You know... women can't easily forget about their fertility.

• Top news stories will be crime waves and race riots — imaginary or not — and Bidengates IV and V, whatever they turn out to be.
• There is no Democratic champion in view to capture the hearts of America with his or her charisma.

On this final point, note that JFK and Bill Clinton have been the only really charismatic and winning Democratic candidates in my lifetime. I have huge respect for Barack Obama and his superb charisma, but the simple fact is that MANY Americans will vote for a Black only when desperate. Obama could never have been elected except that the 2008 situation meant that ANY Democrat would win. Note that he almost lost in 2012 despite a very successful first term.

Obama did not "almost lose" in 2012. It was tighter than 2008, but 2012 wasn't ever in doubt.

Is pessimism bad? Or are dire warnings our last best hope to turn the tide and maintain U.S. democracy?

The Democrats have a good deal of candidates. In general, the plan would be to find a person in the Midwest or Rockies that has that moderate vibe. I have no idea who the Dem will be, but I think the battle will be a little less contentious than the GOP's battle. A battle that could possibly tear the GOP apart. That is only half wishful thinking.

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS ARE FUCKED Version
. . .

It is bad, really bad. I mean, you can't label an adjective to bad to show how bad it is. Why? Well, multiple reasons.

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?! ... WTF?!

2) ... Anyone not voting against Trump weren't going out to vote ever. "SHIT!" I know, right! It means that the margins we saw in 2018, 2020, 2022 were as good as it seemingly can get. Even a fucking Astronaut won by only a handful of percentage points against a god damn fascist!
... The US House is gerrymandered. Florida is likewise. And then it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of becoming more partisan to one side.

3) 2024 is going to be a blood bath in the US Senate....

4) Forget about judicial nominations if the GOP win the Senate, but not the White House!

This is bad, real bad. The Democrats didn't repel a massive tsunami successfully... it was never going to be a massive red wave. And the best the Dems could do was generally make things even, while losing the House.

So I am not the only pessimist. Let us hope that such pessimism becomes a "call to arms." A blue wave in 2024 is still possible. But without it, history books of the future will mark the 2022 election as the end of American democracy.

I had a second post with a less pessimistic view... but involves the House and White House. There is no blue wave in 2024, but the House can be won back. And the White House can be won. There are so many unknowns at the moment.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is no Democratic champion in view to capture the hearts of America with his or her charisma.

And any contender for this role is despised by the Party leadership...

Well, not despised. The problem is an uber-liberal won't win the national election. The last liberal Democrat to win the White House... *name not yet in existence*. And if liberals don't get this through their fucking head, we are doomed. We need to replace Justice Thomas with a liberal if there is any chance to manage SCOTUS. We need justices on the courts that aren't rubber stamps for the GOP and Christian Dominionism. Clinton, Obama, Biden (all moderates) nominated viable Judicial candidates to the courts. We need that more than anything.

 

[Elixir]

We need that more than anything.

We need Alito and Thomas to drop dead.
Today.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We need that more than anything.

We need Alito and Thomas to drop dead.
Today.

After the runoff... and of completely natural causes.

Thomas has been on the court forever, about 2/3's of my life! Breyer, Ginsburg have since retired after going on the court after him. Souter stepped down a bit ago too, and was on just before Thomas. Thomas won't be happy until he undoes 240 years of constitutional law going all the way to Marbury v Madison, finding that he (and SCOTUS) have no right to rule on issues.

 

[Gospel]

Woah woah woah. That's over the top. If I've learned anything from 50 Cent's song called Many Men; wishing death on people only gives them vindication.

 

[ZiprHead]

In general, Biden let COVID spending and other programs (increased child tax credit, greatly increased unemployment, 4th stimulus, student loan repayment pause) continue long past the point after the economy reopened, causing massive inflation.

For fuck sakes, inflation was up everywhere across the globe. Europe doesn't have to deal with student loan issues because they don't have insane standards for how people should pay for college. And unemployment didn't go up, forget "greatly".

Yeah, he's been schooled on this issue several times. Apparently the lesson never breaks through Derec's biases.

 

[Elixir]

Are pundits guessing yet which party will win the White House in 2024? My guess is the GOP will win.

• The economic outlook is likely to still be grim 18 months from now. Recession and/or continued inflation are likely. Many experts are predicting any or all of (a) a financial crisis as bad as 2008 or worse, (b) continued drops in the valuations of stocks and other assets, (c) solvency issues in big companies as interest rates soar.
• Republicans wanting Biden to fail may actively oppose efforts to pull the country out of this economic morass. They will almost certainly use Nay votes on spending and debt ceiling bills to embarrass and hinder the U.S. government. While unlikely, it cannot be ruled out that Republican malice and fiscal irresponsibility will cause the U.S. Dollar to lose its psychological status as the World's Reserve Currency.
• Voter attention will focus on Bidengates I, II and III and other lies from the Hannity-Koch Bullshit Machine.
• War in Europe will lead to finger-pointing at "Democratic war mongers," worldwide malaise, continued high prices for food and oil, and so on.
• By 2024, most Americans will have forgotten the overturning of Roe v Wade, the J6 Insurrection and so on. Top news stories will be crime waves and race riots — imaginary or not — and Bidengates IV and V, whatever they turn out to be.
• There is no Democratic champion in view to capture the hearts of America with his or her charisma.

On this final point, note that JFK and Bill Clinton have been the only really charismatic and winning Democratic candidates in my lifetime. I have huge respect for Barack Obama and his superb charisma, but the simple fact is that MANY Americans will vote for a Black only when desperate. Obama could never have been elected except that the 2008 situation meant that ANY Democrat would win. Note that he almost lost in 2012 despite a very successful first term.

Is pessimism bad? Or are dire warnings our last best hope to turn the tide and maintain U.S. democracy?

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS ARE FUCKED Version
. . .

It is bad, really bad. I mean, you can't label an adjective to bad to show how bad it is. Why? Well, multiple reasons.

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?! ... WTF?!

2) ... Anyone not voting against Trump weren't going out to vote ever. "SHIT!" I know, right! It means that the margins we saw in 2018, 2020, 2022 were as good as it seemingly can get. Even a fucking Astronaut won by only a handful of percentage points against a god damn fascist!
... The US House is gerrymandered. Florida is likewise. And then it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of becoming more partisan to one side.

3) 2024 is going to be a blood bath in the US Senate....

4) Forget about judicial nominations if the GOP win the Senate, but not the White House!

This is bad, real bad. The Democrats didn't repel a massive tsunami successfully... it was never going to be a massive red wave. And the best the Dems could do was generally make things even, while losing the House.

So I am not the only pessimist. Let us hope that such pessimism becomes a "call to arms." A blue wave in 2024 is still possible. But without it, history books of the future will mark the 2022 election as the end of American democracy.

I agree with both of you, BUT…
I think Dems are just one charismatic newcomer from a clean sweep in ‘24.
Failing that, we’re prob’ly screwed.

Woah woah woah. That's over the top. If I've learned anything from 50 Cent's song called Many Men; wishing death on people only gives them vindication.

I don’t care if they’re “vindicated” as long as they’re gone. If it makes anyone feel better let them retire to Putler’s Black Sea palace and live happily ever after.

 

[Derec]

I didn't study her life as much as you have so I'm not saying if she does or doesn't. Anyhow as I've said experience is not longer required (it actually never was, it's just so happened that the majority of presidents had that or military experience) so the point is moot.

It is not required de jure, but de facto, it is very important.
I think Trump was an aberration. Look at the guy who wants to succeed the MAGA lane from Trump - DeSantis. Lt. Commander in the Navy (JAG Corps), congressman, governor. A solid resume, and that by age 44. Maybe that's why Trump is so jealous ...

 

[Derec]

Why should we believe the polls about Biden when the polls about the midterms were so wrong?

Were they really that wrong? For example polls in my state predicted Kemp would cruise to reelection while the Senate race was within MOE and likely headed for a r-u-n-n-o-f-t. Which is what happened. Overall, polls predicted that Dems would likely hold the Senate and GOP likely take over the House, which is what happened.

That said, presidential favorability has been polled much more frequently than state races, which reduces random error and by many different polling outfits. If polls by different outfits with different methodologies provide consistent results (poor favorability for Biden), then the chance of a systematic error is reduced too.

 

[Derec]

I’d say it is more about care verses believe. W, Obama, Trump all had low approval. All either won or came close to winning reelection.

Obama's were higher than Trump's or Biden's at this stage. And of course, Trump lost bigly.

W's approval ratings spiked after 9/11 and did not really drop below 50 until after his reelection.

 

[Derec]

Did it? I never saw this huge wave. The AM radio was ablast with grandiose predictions, but at least, the tsunami was going to be ankle deep, many wins by small margins.

I think it did. Of course counterfactuals are always a speculation, but I do think Dobbs energized many Democrats and Indys into voting who would otherwise have stayed home (or in the case of many pro-choice Indys voted for the Republican).

But was it? This map was always a tough map for the GOP. The GOP had numerous seats in states that were vulnerable. The Democrats, not as much. Especially in light of idiots the GOP threw against the Dems. That wasn't Dobbs. A Dobbs influenced Democrat comeback included OH and WI going back to blue.

Yes, poor candidates were also an albatross around the GOP neck, no doubt. But in Pennsylvania both candidates were poor choices. In Georgia, Warnock is mediocre at best and could eke out a small lead in the election even against a bumbling idiot like Walker. In Georgia we have blue metro areas with many pro-choice people but now also a very restrictive abortion law. You don't think Dobbs was worth a few percentage points? I certainly do.

There is little evidence at all that Lake would have won with or without Dobbs. Lake lost a tight race, much like Trump did. Dobbs appeared to have zero impact.

In a tight race, even something with a relatively minor impact can decide the winner.
I think you are deluding yourself if you think Dobbs did not play a role in places like AZ.

In some states there was a few point bounce. Not much more than that. In OH and PA, women were outvoted by men. The GOP lost because their candidates sucked ass. Where the ass sucking wasn't large, the GOP saw victories.

And men can't be pro-choice?
Btw, where did you get that breakdown by gender?

So did W in '02.

Not according to the chart above. W was still riding the 9/11 wave in 2002. Are you confusing it with 2006?

Obama was defeated due to ACA being absolutely smeared by the right-wing press.

Obama wasn't defeated. He won in 2012 and he wasn't on the ballot in 2010. That said, yes ACA played a big role in the 2010 losses, as did bailouts from 2008.

Man, you are obsessed to the point of blindness.

I am neither. Just telling it like it is. It was stupid of Biden to cave to the Squad, let alone based on a stunt like that.

For fuck sakes, inflation was up everywhere across the globe.

It did not go up everywhere equally. And other countries have their own monetary and fiscal policies that contributed to the inflation of their respective currencies.

Europe doesn't have to deal with student loan issues because they don't have insane standards for how people should pay for college.

No doubt. But they had low interest rates, even lower than US. And they also had a lot of government spending.

And unemployment didn't go up, forget "greatly".

Unemployment compensation did. $2400/month in addition to regular unemployment. That's more than what many jobs pay, and this expanded unemployment compensation continued well past the point when the economy recovered.

Listen, some increased inflation was inevitable due to COVID. There was a genuine need for governments to spend as economies went into lockdown, and there were major supply chain issues. I get that. Things are rarely monocausal. But US certainly continued these programs long after the economy reopened, and that made inflation worse. Take student loan interest and payment pause. It should have ended, along with things like expanded child tax credit and expanded unemployment, after one year at most. And here we are, almost three years in and people still don't pay! In fact, Biden may (and probably will) extend the pause yet again.