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Post 2022 Election

A minor nitpick. Obama gave a major speech at the 2004 Democrat Convention. His ascension to running for POTUS was carved in stone, and one needed to be brain dead not to know that guy was force to be reckoned with. Bill Clinton spoke in 1988 and overstayed his welcome. He was a rising star, but there wasn't the same fait accompli as that Obama had for a POTUS run. The question for Obama was whether to go in 2008 or wait for 2012/2016.
Ok, I will give you Obama. Clinton though was not thought to be a major contender until New Hampshire.
The Democrats have a very wide field, however.
They had an extremely wide field in 2020 and settled on Biden. Most anticlimactic primary season ever!

A DeSantis or Trump Presidency will be a big problem as the GOP will try every trick in the book to delay judicial nominees.
They can't. Dems still have the Senate until 2024. Unless Walker wins and somebody dies leaving a seat open that they can take over.
 
Thomas has been on the court forever, about 2/3's of my life!
I thought you were older than that.
Sure, Thomas is by far the longest serving sitting judge, but he is only #12 on the all-time list, as he overtook Bushrod Washington today. Congrats are in order! He won't get into top 10 until next year, but if he holds on for another five and a half, he will be #1.

Breyer, Ginsburg have since retired after going on the court after him.
Ginsburg did not retire. She died in office. She should have retired - given all her health challenges - before 2014 when Dems had Obama and a Senate majority.

Souter stepped down a bit ago too, and was on just before Thomas.
He was a quitter. Retired after less than 20 years on the bench.
Thomas won't be happy until he undoes 240 years of constitutional law going all the way to Marbury v Madison, finding that he (and SCOTUS) have no right to rule on issues.
Quite a bit of an overexaggeration.
 
Yeah, he's been schooled on this issue several times. Apparently the lesson never breaks through Derec's biases.
LMAO! There have been claims that fiscal policy has no bearing on inflation, sure. But that is far from being "schooling" or "lessons". And my only bias here is economic reality.
 
Why should we believe the polls about Biden when the polls about the midterms were so wrong?
Were they really that wrong? For example polls in my state predicted Kemp would cruise to reelection while the Senate race was within MOE and likely headed for a r-u-n-n-o-f-t. Which is what happened. Overall, polls predicted that Dems would likely hold the Senate and GOP likely take over the House, which is what happened.

That said, presidential favorability has been polled much more frequently than state races, which reduces random error and by many different polling outfits. If polls by different outfits with different methodologies provide consistent results (poor favorability for Biden), then the chance of a systematic error is reduced too.
Cherry picking two races out of hundreds.
 
Yeah, he's been schooled on this issue several times. Apparently the lesson never breaks through Derec's biases.
LMAO! There have been claims that fiscal policy has no bearing on inflation, sure.
No one said that. They said fiscal policy has little bearing on THIS inflation.
But that is far from being "schooling" or "lessons". And my only bias here is economic reality.
You mean denial of economic reality.
 
Kamala has a point there, to be fair.
She does except she's enough out of touch to not realize very few students over the age of 20 (and too many under 20) live in dormitories. My personal peeve with this (based on living in a neighborhood adjacent to the local university) is that most students lack the experience in standing up to adults and for their own rights to be very effective ad effectively negotiating house rules with room mates, leases with landlords, and dealing with the inevitable issues that come up in off campus student housing: landlords who treat tenants like crap, irresponsible roommates, out of control parties. It takes very, very little for things to change from being just fine to a total shit show in a single evening. I've watched it happen. So, based on that, Kamal is right: students are stupid. Or rather, their inexperienced, away from home on their own generally for the first time and their dealing with a wide range of...maturity and responsibility levels on the part of their room mates and their neighbors, and indeed their landlords.
 
I think the "youngsters are stupid" comment was clearly intended as a joke. But that doesn't mean Harris isn't unelectable for other reasons. Her shrill voice being one.
 
I think the "youngsters are stupid" comment was clearly intended as a joke. But that doesn't mean Harris isn't unelectable for other reasons. Her shrill voice being one.
It’s a shame that it matters, but it does.
 
I think the "youngsters are stupid" comment was clearly intended as a joke. But that doesn't mean Harris isn't unelectable for other reasons. Her shrill voice being one.
Would have been fine if she did standup for a living.

While there is much truth to the comment, some things aren't suppose to be said out loud. This might have been one of them. Or at least phrased differently.
 
Dems get in array on future leadership after Pelosi departs - POLITICO - "Lawmakers have managed to stealthily defuse rivalries for nearly every position at the top of the House caucus, despite their three major leadership retirements."

With a picture of Pramila Jayapal D-WA captioned "Rep. Pramila Jayapal announced she was running for reelection as chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus."

"House Democrats are increasingly likely to elect their troika of top leaders for the next Congress without any major confrontation, ensuring a show of unity as they enter the minority."

Rep. Adam Schiff D-CA decided not to run for House Minority Leader, the #1 spot, instead wanting to run for the Senate. He would succeed Dianne Feinstein, at least if she decides to retire.

PJ decided to run for that reelection rather than become House Minority Whip, the #2 spot.

Reps. Joe Neguse D-CO and Pete Aguilar D-CA are competing to become House Democratic Caucus Chairman, the #3 spot.

That means that Reps. Hakeem Jeffries D-NY, Rep. Katherine Clark D-MA, and Pete Aguilar D-CA will likely be elected to these three spots, in that order.

All three in those top spots are retiring from them: Nancy Pelosi D-CA, Steny Hoyer D-MD, and Jim Clyburn D-SC.

Meaning that the Democratic Party leadership will look a lot less like the Soviet Union's leadership in its last years.

Nancy Pelosi: 82, Steny Hoyer: 83, Jim Clyburn: 82
Hakeem Jeffries: 52, Katherine Clark: 59, Pete Aguilar: 43
 
No one said that.
Doubtful.
They said fiscal policy has little bearing on THIS inflation.
Why not? There was a lot of fiscal stimulus in the wake of COVID shutdowns, much of it continuing well past economy reopening. Why do you think it had little bearing, even if you want to arbitrarily restrict the lack of effect to THIS inflation?

You mean denial of economic reality.
I do not. More money (monetary easing, fiscal stimulus) chasing fewer goods and services (from lockdowns and supply chain shortages) leads to inflation. In this case, quite a bit of it too.
 
She does except she's enough out of touch to not realize very few students over the age of 20 (and too many under 20) live in dormitories.
It's not about the dormitories, it's about the generation. Gen Z was already on track for worst ever, and then COVID and online "learning" happened. They got used to easily cheatable online classes and exams and expect easy street to continue. So they do shit like get an Orgo professor fired because they deem his class "too hard". What a bunch of whiny crybabies!
 
More money (monetary easing, fiscal stimulus) chasing fewer goods and services (from lockdowns and supply chain shortages) leads to inflation. In this case, quite a bit of it too.

Excess reserves at the Fed were 3.2 Trillion Dollars in May 2020. (Trillion with a 'T.') I don't know what the current figure is — Anyone with Good Google-fu? For some reason, the Fed discontinued publishing that number shortly after the $3,200,000,000,000 record was set.

I'd like to read a thorough objective discussion of these huge balances; but to at least some extent it is money "sopped up" from QE and kept out of circulation.
 
Cherry picking two races out of hundreds.
Hardly. Can you point to any evidence that polls got this election wrong?
Some polls were way off. Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer had a very comfortable lead against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in the polls over the summer and into fall. Then a poll was released on Oct. 31, well into the state's early voting period, finding the race was a virtual tie, and that half of independent voters were supporting Dixon, while less than 30 percent planned to vote for Whitmer. It was conducted by Insider Advantage, a Republican firm that has earned praise in the past for its polling methods and decently high accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight, a group that aggregates polls.
But what voters were being fed by pollsters and the news media was skewed. One reason is that Republican-leaning firms that tend to favor their candidates took our temperature more often — and later in — this cycle than did the usual pollsters on which we rely. It skewed polling averages, according to Nate Cohn, The New York Times' chief political analyst.
 
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