• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Redistricting for the US House and the US state legislatures

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Brian Olson's site has BDistricting -- "What redistricting is and what it could be." - 2010 Redistricting Results

"Below are district maps for US House and state legislatures that have been optimized for equal population and compactness only. No partisan power plays. No gerrymandering."

With House and state-legislature maps for all 50 states.

BDistricting - About

"What is a district for? ... Districts break down governance into managable pieces."

"What is a good district? ... Across all districts and all people, the best district map is the one where people have the lowest average distance to the center of their district. ... It's also possible for human drawn districts to actually better represent 'communities of interest' and other fuzzy but real sociological features."
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Continuing with Brian Olson's "about" page, he takes on the issue of "Compactness Measures":

  • Travel time?
  • District perimeter/area
  • District convex-hull area / precise area
  • Just pick simple boundaries along zip-codes/counties/rivers/etc.
Also concerns like
  • Will this break up communities?
  • Won't this disenfranchise minorities?
  • What about competitive districts?
He proposes proportional representation as a solution. I agree with him that it's better than contorted districts.
How does your solver work?

My implementation is a heuristic based gradient descent solver with simulated annealing jitter. It looks at the boundaries between districts and tries to make things better by flipping one block from district A to district B (and possibly over some number of steps, other blocks from B to C and C to A). It doesn't actually directly optimize the measure of population compactness, but looks at related measures like the ratio of the block's distance to the average edge blocks' distances from each district's center, and the ratio of the populations of the two districts the block might go into. Each district grabs up to one block, then centers are recalculated and the cycle begins again checking all the edge blocks.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
RangeVoting.org - Splitline districtings of all 50 states + DC + PR with the splitline algorithm described in RangeVoting.org - Gerrymandering and a cure - shortest splitline algorithm
The algorithm:
  1. Start with the boundary outline of the state.
  2. Let N=A+B where A and B are as nearly equal whole numbers as possible.
    (For example, 7=4+3. More precisely, A = ⌈N/2⌉, B=⌊N/2⌋.)
  3. Among all possible dividing lines that split the state into two parts with population ratio A:B, choose the shortest. (Notes: since the Earth is round, when we say "line" we more precisely mean "great circle." If there is an exact length-tie for "shortest" then break that tie by using the line closest to North-South orientation, and if it's still a tie, then use the Westernmost of the tied dividing lines. "Length" means distance between the two furthest-apart points on the line, that both lie within the district being split.)
  4. We now have two hemi-states, each to contain a specified number (namely A and B) of districts. Handle them recursively via the same splitting procedure.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Auto-Redistrict - the algorithm tries to optimize districts by:
  • Geometry
    • Equal population
    • Contiguous
    • Compact
    • Minimal county / municipality splits
  • Equality
    • Competitive
    • Proportional
    • Minimal partisan gerrymandering (maximal "partisan symmetry")
    • Minimal racial gerrymandering (maximal voting power equality)
It uses a genetic algorithm:
  1. Initialize. First, the population of potential maps is initialized. It could either start off totally random, or you could use the current electoral district shapes to start it off.
  2. Evaluate. Then the fitness of each map is evaluated on each of the criteria (in our case, compactness, equal population, competitiveness, proportional representation, etc.)
  3. Select. The best scoring maps are selected for reproduction,
  4. Recombine. and randomly recombined to form new maps, that are hybrids of the best maps.
  5. Mutate. Finally these maps are "mutated" slightly so that other potential maps that are similar to them are explored.
  6. (Repeat). This is the new population of potential maps. The process repeats from step 2.
The page then goes into more detail about the optimization criteria.

I could not find anything on the algorithm's results or how long it takes to run.
 

Tigers!

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2005
Messages
2,829
Location
On the wing waiting for a kick.
Basic Beliefs
Bible believing revelational redemptionist (Baptist)
Had a thought on a simple fix for gerrymandering:

Every political party with at least one seat submits a proposed map. The map with the lowest total boundary distance wins. Secret "bids".
Or have an independent body produce the map. A body that has no ties to any pollie or party, that stands to gain nothing from an electoral map. the parties/polles are free to critique said body's map but they them selves do not generate a map.
Having pollies generate a map means they will aim to maintain, at the very least, the status quo, thus guaranteeing gerrymandering will continue.
 

Loren Pechtel

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Sep 16, 2000
Messages
35,727
Location
Nevada
Gender
Yes
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
uses a genetic algorithm:
  1. Initialize. First, the population of potential maps is initialized. It could either start off totally random, or you could use the current electoral district shapes to start it off.
  2. Evaluate. Then the fitness of each map is evaluated on each of the criteria (in our case, compactness, equal population, competitiveness, proportional representation, etc.)
  3. Select. The best scoring maps are selected for reproduction,
  4. Recombine. and randomly recombined to form new maps, that are hybrids of the best maps.
  5. Mutate. Finally these maps are "mutated" slightly so that other potential maps that are similar to them are explored.
  6. (Repeat). This is the new population of potential maps. The process repeats from step 2.
The page then goes into more detail about the optimization criteria.

I could not find anything on the algorithm's results or how long it takes to run.

Genetic algorithms aren't a good thing here--they are not reproducable so there's no way to figure out if somebody tampered with the results a bit. Redistricting should be done by a reproducible means.
 

Loren Pechtel

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Sep 16, 2000
Messages
35,727
Location
Nevada
Gender
Yes
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Had a thought on a simple fix for gerrymandering:

Every political party with at least one seat submits a proposed map. The map with the lowest total boundary distance wins. Secret "bids".
Or have an independent body produce the map. A body that has no ties to any pollie or party, that stands to gain nothing from an electoral map. the parties/polles are free to critique said body's map but they them selves do not generate a map.
Having pollies generate a map means they will aim to maintain, at the very least, the status quo, thus guaranteeing gerrymandering will continue.

But how do you ensure they are actually independent?
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Genetic algorithms aren't a good thing here--they are not reproducable so there's no way to figure out if somebody tampered with the results a bit. Redistricting should be done by a reproducible means.
That's a problem with stochastic algorithms in general, like simulated annealing. A deterministic alternative is gradient descent, with avoiding the most recently-used change directions: "tabu search". Another deterministic alternative is K-means clustering, though it cannot optimize features like district perimeters. All these algorithms need initial conditions, and those are usually calculated randomly.

Brian Olson gets around the randomness part by doing repeated runs with different random-number values, and one can also do so by specifying the random-number algorithm and the seeding.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
One may want to use some programming language's standard-library function for random numbers, but that has a problem. It may not be very well-documented. If one uses an open-source implementation like GCC or NumPy, one may be able to find the algorithm if one burrows through the source code in some archive somewhere. But that's not very feasible with a proprietary implementation.

In fairness, C++11 introduced some well-documented random-number generators in its standard library.

This is much more of a problem with random numbers than it is for (say) square root, log, exp, or trig functions, because different algorithms produce very different sequences of numbers.


Back to redistricting.

Alabama now has a map. Its 7 districts are one strongly Democratic one that includes the state's biggest cities, Birmingham and Montgomery, and 6 strongly Republican ones for the rest of the state.

538 is confused about North Carolina. Does it have a map? Or is its new map still in the final stages of legislative approval?

Michigan: Dec. 31, 2021 - Date by which commission says it will enact a map - now at 3 maps, named "Apple", "Birch", "Chestnut". What next? Let's see ... "Dogwood", "Elm", "Fir", "Ginkgo", "Hickory", "Ivy", "Juniper", "Kapok", "Larch", "Maple", "Nut", "Oak", "Pine", "Quercus", "Redwood", "Spruce", "Tamarack", U? V? W? X? "Yew" Z?

New Hampshire: Nov. 18, 2021 - Deadline for House Special Committee on Redistricting to propose draft of congressional map - Democrats want both districts to be neck-and-neck, while Republicans want one Democratic-leaning district and one Republican-leaning district.

Ohio: Nov. 30, 2021 - Deadline for legislature to pass temporary map if commission doesn't succeed - a third map, from State Senate Republicans, even more gerrymandered than the State House Republicans' map.
 

Tigers!

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2005
Messages
2,829
Location
On the wing waiting for a kick.
Basic Beliefs
Bible believing revelational redemptionist (Baptist)
Had a thought on a simple fix for gerrymandering:

Every political party with at least one seat submits a proposed map. The map with the lowest total boundary distance wins. Secret "bids".
Or have an independent body produce the map. A body that has no ties to any pollie or party, that stands to gain nothing from an electoral map. the parties/polles are free to critique said body's map but they them selves do not generate a map.
Having pollies generate a map means they will aim to maintain, at the very least, the status quo, thus guaranteeing gerrymandering will continue.

But how do you ensure they are actually independent?
Fortunately in Australia our Electoral Commissions, both State and Commonwealth, have been in existence since just after WW1. They have a near perfect record of impartiality and competence. I say near perfect as this century we have had a few examples of carelessness in handling ballots, necessitating new elections or rather part elections.
The way you Yanks divide yourself into opposing factions so quickly would make it difficult but you have to start somewhere.
As a start the body is answerable only to the parliament or legislative body that formed it, not the government of the day. No existing, former or wanna-be politicians can be members. No members can belong to a political party or have worked for a political party or candidate, paid or unpaid.
In the state of Victoria where I live you cannot work for the Electoral Commission if you have represented or worked for a political party or candidate within the last 5 years or 2 electoral cycles, whichever is longer. You cannot even hand out pamphlets or flyers for a party or candidate. You cannot put a political sign on your property including a vehicle as your impartiality will be called into question. Paid or volunteer work does not matter. Similar rules apply for the Commonwealth Electoral Commission.
Members are paid by the parliament, not the parties or others. They are considered to be public servants and follow the public servant rules.
They produce the maps and then put them up for public discussion for a time. These maps are based upon population only. The maps merely show the boundaries of the electorates, not where the polling stations etc. will be. That is a separate process. All interested parties including political parties, candidates, individuals etc. can lodge a request or protest to amend an electorate based solely upon population. Any changes are made based solely upon population and are made by the commission. Naturally the perceived independence of the commission is important.

There are 2 important features
1. The body is independent of the parties, candidates, government of the day etc. Responsible only to the parliament that created it.
2. Boundaries are based solely upon population. If another criteria is allowed esp. past voting patterns then gerrymandering will occur.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Thanx, Tigers! Nice to know what goes on elsewhere in the world.


Back to US redistricting.

I wasn't sure about North Carolina earlier, but I am now. That state now has a map. Iowa also does so, that half-competitive half-Republican one.

Wisconsin's "People's Maps Commission" has come out with a map. It makes one of the Republican-leaning districts competitive, unlike the Republican legislators, who proposed a R 6 D 2 map, much like the current one. The state gov't is divided between a Democratic governor and a gerrymandered-Republican legislature, so expect the map to go to the courts.
 

Loren Pechtel

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Sep 16, 2000
Messages
35,727
Location
Nevada
Gender
Yes
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
The way you Yanks divide yourself into opposing factions so quickly would make it difficult but you have to start somewhere.
As a start the body is answerable only to the parliament or legislative body that formed it, not the government of the day. No existing, former or wanna-be politicians can be members. No members can belong to a political party or have worked for a political party or candidate, paid or unpaid.
The legislative body created it, they can pick people that will support their position.

Perhaps yours is honest but this isn't proof of it.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Nevada has a proposed map, going from +22 -1 -5 -16 to +5 +4 +2 -13

This is to support Democratic incumbents in that state, by giving them some Democratic voters in the Las Vegas area. The existing map has a strongly-Democratic district for Las Vegas proper, and some barely-Republican districts for the city's suburbs. The new map splits up Las Vegas to give its voters to more districts.

Gerrymandering? Yes, and it shows a risk that that activity can have. If one wants to expand one's reach, one may distribute one's most committed voters among more districts, but doing so gives all of them weaker majorities. If Nevada became a little bit more Republican, then all three Democrats could be replaced by Republicans, while with the existing map, one Democrat would be somewhat safe.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Florida now has four proposed maps. These maps are not as gerrymandered as aggressively as one might expect, likely because of wanting to protect Republican incumbents. Much like in Texas.

California now has a proposed map. It puts Katie Porter into a R+2 district. :(
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
California: Nov. 15, 2021 - Deadline for commission to propose draft of congressional map

Florida: June 13, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)

Nevada: March 7, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)

Wisconsin: April 15, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)

Katie Porter's district is now CA-45, at D+6. It will become CA-44 at R+2.

She won by 4.8% in 2018 and 7.0% in 2020. So it'll be a tough race for her.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Montana, Idaho, and Utah now have maps. No surprise for either MT or ID, but all four of UT's districts are heavily Republican, with Salt Lake City being split up between all of them.

How Republicans Have an Edge in the Emerging 2022 Congressional Maps - The New York Times
“Fear is driving all of this,” David Pepper, a former Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said on Wednesday at a hearing to discuss a proposed map that would give Republicans 13 of the state’s 15 congressional seats. “Fear of what would happen if we actually had a real democracy.”

...
Several other states have completed maps for the 2020s that entrench existing Republican advantages. Republicans in Alabama and Indiana shored up G.O.P.-held congressional districts while packing their state’s pockets of Democrats into uncompetitive enclaves. In Utah, a new map eliminates a competitive district in Salt Lake City that Democrats won in 2018. Republicans have made an Oklahoma City seat much safer, while Colorado’s independent redistricting commission shored up the district of Representative Lauren Boebert, a Republican and Trump ally, so much that her leading Democratic opponent, who had raised $1.9 million, dropped out of the contest to defeat her.

And in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law a map that protects the state’s 23 Republican incumbents while adding two safely red seats, a year after the party spent $22 million to protect vulnerable House members.

...
In one of the few states where Democrats are on offense, Illinois will eliminate two Republican seats from its delegation and add one Democratic one when Gov. J.B. Pritzker signs the map that the state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature approved last month. New York is likely to add seats to the Democratic column once the party’s lawmakers complete maps next year, and Maryland Democrats may draw their state’s lone Republican congressman out of a district.

Democrats in Nebraska also managed to preserve a competitive district that includes Omaha after initial Republican proposals sought to split the city in two.

...
Wisconsin Republicans on Thursday passed a congressional map that would shift a Democratic seat to certain Republican control, though Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, promised to veto it. Michigan and Virginia, which had gerrymandered districts, have adopted outside commissions to draw new lines. Pennsylvania has a Democratic governor certain to veto Republican maps.

And it’s not clear what California’s independent commission will do when it completes the state’s process later this year.

...
Still, Republicans have far more opportunities to press their advantage. G.O.P. lawmakers in New Hampshire proposed changing a congressional map largely unaltered since the 1800s to create a Republican seat. In Georgia, Republicans are set to place Representatives Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux, Democrats who hold seats in Atlanta’s booming northern suburbs, into a single Democratic district while forming a new Republican seat.

Officials in both parties are preparing for years of legal fights over the maps, with the potential for courts to order the redrawing of maps well into the decade. Lawsuits have already been filed over maps in Oregon, Alabama, North Carolina and Texas.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Nevada now has a map: +5, +4, +2, -13

California: Dec. 27, 2021 - Deadline for commission to enact congressional map

Maryland: Feb. 22, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date) - the legislature has now proposed 4 maps, with the eastern district (MD-01) ranging from strong Republican to competitive. All the other districts are Democratic.

Michigan: Dec. 31, 2021 - Date by which commission says it will enact a map - still at those three tree maps.

Virginia: Nov. 23, 2021 - Deadline for commission to submit new map to legislature if initial map is rejected - Nov. 30, 2021 - Deadline for legislature to approve or reject new map if initial map is rejected - because of a missed deadline, the state's Supreme Court is now supervising redistricting.

Washington: April 30, 2022 - Deadline for state Supreme Court to enact map if commission doesn't succeed - that body is now in charge of redistricting there also, also because of a missed deadline.
 

Jimmy Higgins

Contributor
Joined
Feb 1, 2001
Messages
35,577
Basic Beliefs
Calvinistic Atheist
It appears my claims that the GOP gerrymandered themselves into a corner were wrong, as they have turned Ohio into fucking Utah! The two Democrat districts... +55 and +40. WTF?! +55 means 77 to 22. My district is one of the only purples, with a +4 R. Medina verses Summit County.

And we have a bipartisan redistricting board... which didn't come up with a map, because the GOP can just delay delay delay and come up with this monstrosity.
 

Tigers!

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2005
Messages
2,829
Location
On the wing waiting for a kick.
Basic Beliefs
Bible believing revelational redemptionist (Baptist)
Massachusetts, Ohio, and Oklahoma now have maps.

Maps of Alabama, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas are now being litigated over, and the courts will likely decide the maps of Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight
Home Page - All About Redistricting
The cynic in me says "Why bother going to courts about the districts? Let the judges decide the result of the elections. Cut out all those middle persons and save a lot of time & effort"

Truly you septics are stuffed.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Illinois now has a map. The map that its legislature agreed on.

Georgia: March 7, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)

Minnesota: Feb. 15, 2022 - Deadline for final congressional map - its State House is Democrat-dominated and its State Senate is Republican-dominated, and if they cannot agree, then the courts will come in for yet another map.

Tennessee: April 7, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date)

Over in Maryland,

Mckayla Wilkes for Congress on Twitter: "Steny Hoyer, a man who has been in Congress since 1981, is insisting that his personal preferences determine Maryland's district lines until 2032. Even though federal reps aren't supposed to even be involved in the process at all.

We could use some new leaders around here IMO." / Twitter

She's hoping to primary him. He's in MD-05.

Noting
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "Breaking: Maryland Dem legislators ..." / Twitter
Breaking: Maryland Dem legislators are preparing to advance a modified version of this 7D-0R-1C draft (instead of a pure 8D-0R map) that would leave Freedom Caucus Rep. Andy Harris (R) with a path to victory by excluding blue Annapolis from #MD01. Actual draft coming soon.

National Dems have been counting on Dem gerrymanders in MD, IL and NY to offset aggressive GOP gerrymanders in GA, NC, OH, and TX among others. But in at least MD, they may not end up w/ anything more than what they already have.

Btw, there seems to be a prevailing thought on here that it's #MD05 Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) holding back Dems from pursuing a more aggressive map, which isn't the case at all. Dems' obstacle is (at least) one incumbent from the Baltimore area.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Of the states, 6 have only one House district, 18 now have new district maps, 16 have proposed maps, and 10 have no maps.

About Maryland, they are now down to two maps, one of the earlier ones with two R seats, and one of the more recent ones with one R seat, though it is R+8 instead of R+28. The state's district boundaries, old and new, look contorted.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
South Carolina: March 16, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)

That state now has a proposed map. It adds some areas to Nancy Mace's district, SC-01, to make it more pro-Republican. Yet more incumbent protection.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
There Won’t Be Many Competitive Districts Left After This Round Of Gerrymandering | FiveThirtyEight - podcast

Redistricting Has Maintained The Status Quo So Far. That’s Good For Republicans. | FiveThirtyEight
The “2021 redistricting cycle” is about to become the “2022 redistricting cycle.” As we enter the final month of the year, only 18 states are finished redrawing their congressional districts (not counting the six states with only one district), a consequence of the delayed release of census data. Nevertheless, our view of the U.S. House battlefield for 2022 (and beyond) is starting to come into focus.

As detailed on the FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker, 157 congressional districts have been drawn so far. Ninety have a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 of R+5 or redder, 55 have a partisan lean of D+5 or bluer and only 12 are in the “highly competitive” zone between R+5 and D+5. Compared with the old lines, this represents a net gain of six Democratic-leaning seats and two Republican-leaning seats and a net loss of five highly competitive seats.
The Republicans aren't as aggressive as they might be, likely because they want to protect Republican incumbents.

In New Mexico, Gov. Lujan Grisham to formally call Legislature into special session on redistricting | Office of the Governor - Michelle Lujan Grisham

In Connecticut, Redistricting Panel Misses Deadline on Congressional Map, Petitions for Extension - CTNewsJunkie

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - Washington | FiveThirtyEight
Washington’s state Supreme Court ruled Dec. 3 that the final maps approved by the bipartisan redistricting commission can move forward. The commission had failed to meet a Nov. 15 deadline to redraw the state’s congressional and state legislative maps, prompting the Washington Supreme Court to take up the task, as required by state law. However, the court said that because the commission had voted to adopt the map by the constitutional deadline, and only missed the deadline to transmit the map to the state legislature by 13 minutes, it “substantially complied with the statute.” The state legislature now has 30 days to review the proposed maps and can make minor changes to them if two-thirds of the members of each chamber agree.

How 538 measures partisanship: How Red Or Blue Is Your State? | FiveThirtyEight
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Nothing new in 538, but I found this: US. Department of Justice joins legal challenges to new Texas political maps | The Texas Tribune - "Texas lawmakers illegally discriminated against voters of color by drawing new political districts that give white voters more political power despite rapid growth of Hispanic and Black populations, the department claims in its lawsuit."
The U.S. Department of Justice is throwing its weight into the legal fight over Texas’ newly drawn maps for Congress and the state House, filing a lawsuit Monday that claims Texas lawmakers discriminated against voters of color by denying Latino and Black voters equal opportunities to participate in the voting process and elect their preferred candidates.

...
At a press conference Monday, U.S. Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta said the maps passed into law by the Republican-controlled Legislature showed an "overall disregard for the massive minority population growth" the state experienced over the last decade.

"Our investigation determined that Texas' redistricting plans will dilute the increased minority voting strength that should have developed from these significant demographic shifts," Gupta said.

...
Republicans opted to give white voters effective control of the two new congressional districts the state gained because of its explosive population growth, even though the state's white population has remained relatively stagnant. The state's new congressional map also reduces the number of districts with a Hispanic voting majority from eight to seven, while the number of districts with Black residents as the majority of eligible voters drops from one to zero. Half of the 4 million residents the state gained in the past 10 years were Hispanic.

... The DOJ also points to the configuration of districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area where it argues the map "effectively turns back a decade of rapid Latino population growth and preserves Anglo control of most remaining districts."

Republicans redrew congressional districts in the area with almost surgical precision, stranding urban and suburban voters of color in vast rural districts.
For the Texas state house, "The map drops the number of districts in which Hispanics make up the majority of eligible voters from 33 to 30."

Noting
New Texas political maps intentionally discriminatory, lawsuit claims | The Texas Tribune - "Before they’re even signed into law, the state’s new maps for congressional and statehouse districts have been challenged in federal court by the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund."
Filing the first federal lawsuit Monday in what’s expected to be a flurry of litigation, a group of individual voters and organizations that represent Latinos claim the districts drawn by the Legislature unconstitutionally dilute Latino voting strength and violate the federal Voting Rights Act. The lawsuit, filed in El Paso, also challenges the Legislature's new districts for the State Board of Education, which sets standards for Texas public schools.

...
The legal challenge comes as the Legislature rounds out its redistricting work to incorporate a decade of population gains into new maps for Congress, the Texas House and Senate and the State Board of Education. Of the 4 million new residents the state gained since 2010, 95% were people of color; half were Hispanic.

Yet the maps advanced by the Republican-controlled Legislature deny Hispanics greater electoral influence — and pull back on their ability to control elections. The House map drops the number of districts in which Hispanics make up the majority of eligible voters from 33 to 30. The congressional map reduces the number of districts with a Hispanic voting majority from eight to seven.

“Despite having only recently been found liable by a federal court for intentional racial discrimination in redistricting, Texas has once again adopted plans that dilute Latino voting strength,” Nina Perales, the vice president of litigation for MALDEF, said in a statement. “The new redistricting plans are an unlawful attempt to thwart the changing Texas electorate and should be struck down.”
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
New congressional maps cut into Texas’ Asian communities | The Texas Tribune - "Asian and Pacific Islander populations surged in Texas over the past decade, but their political power is weakened under new congressional maps. A northwest Houston neighborhood offers a case study in how that was done."
Language and culture are studied in classrooms of the building the organization moved into in 2011. Political groups work out of its offices, striving to give voice to the ever-growing population of native and immigrant Asian Americans who have planted roots here.

But an invisible line now separates the center from its people. When Texas lawmakers redrew congressional maps following the 2020 census, they split up Asian American populations in both Harris and Fort Bend counties.

One district line, winding between a local car wash and bar, severs most of the Korean neighborhoods, grocery stores, restaurants and a senior center from the community center itself, which now hangs on the edge of one congressional district while most of its members reside in the next district over.

“It’s like (lawmakers) don’t even know we are here,” said Hyunja Norman, president of the Korean American Voters League, who works out of the center. “If they were thoughtful, they could’ve included the Korean Community Center in (our district). But it’s like they are ignorant of us, or they just don’t care.”
The number of new Asian Americans in Texas surpassed both the Black and white population growth over the past decade, but fell behind Hispanic Texans. Vietnamese is the third most-spoken language in Texas, and the half of Texas households that “speak English less than very well” speak in Asian and Pacific Islander languages, according to a report from the Texas governor’s office.

Those numbers gave hope to Texans like Norman that when lawmakers met to divvy up political representation, the redistricting process might yield stronger opportunities for people who look like her to be elected. Instead, Asian Texans lost voting strength around Dallas and Houston, where their numbers have grown the most.

Texas has never elected an Asian American or Pacific Islander to Congress and has had very few representatives serve in the Texas Legislature.
"Although numbers show most Asian American voters nationally lean toward Democrats, a loud but small minority has aligned with far-right Republicans, leading to events like an Indian American car rally for former President Donald Trump in Houston."
“One thing that distinguishes Asian Americans from other communities of color is courts haven’t formally protected them in terms of redistricting,” said Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research at the Texas Politics Project. “Mapmakers have to be careful in distributing African American and Latino populations, but they’re not required to do so for the AAPI community.”

Blank said this difference partially stems from the community’s small fraction of the population, but it also comes from stereotypes like the model minority myth.
 

Jimmy Higgins

Contributor
Joined
Feb 1, 2001
Messages
35,577
Basic Beliefs
Calvinistic Atheist
Massachusetts, Ohio, and Oklahoma now have maps.

Maps of Alabama, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas are now being litigated over, and the courts will likely decide the maps of Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight
Home Page - All About Redistricting
The cynic in me says "Why bother going to courts about the districts? Let the judges decide the result of the elections. Cut out all those middle persons and save a lot of time & effort"

Truly you septics are stuffed.
Gerrymandering this time around has almost made the House of Representatives static. And unfortunately, after the massive blowout for the Democrats in 2010 because of the expansion of medical coverage, the state legislatures went deep red and have also gerrymandered state districting too. Which makes the Government of the State of Ohio look like Alabama, despite being a purple state.

The passage of ACA was one of the most self-destructive things the Democrats did. You'd swear the bill had all the grandmas and grandpas murdered to save money.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Pennsylvania: Feb. 15, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date) - it is losing a House seat, going from 18 to 17.

It now has a proposed map, one proposed by a Republican that eliminates a pro-Democratic district. But between a Democratic governor and a gerrymandered-Republican legislature, redistricting may end up in the courts.

Maryland's redistricters are now considering one map, a map that gives the state one Republican-leaning (R+8) district with the rest being Democratic-leaning or strongly Democratic (D+9,12,18,23,40,50,63)
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Maryland now has a map. That makes 6 one-district states, 19 multidistrict states with maps, 17 states with proposed maps, and 8 states with no proposed maps.

In Virginia, the court-appointed masters have released a map. It has pretty much the same partisan composition as the existing map, though with the Republican districts more strongly Republican.

Revamped New Mexico 3-Seat Congressional Map Advances | New Mexico News | US News

That map draws the state's three districts as D+4,4,12, with Albuquerque and Santa Fe being at the northern end of the most strongly Democratic district.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Mississippi: Jan. 1, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date) - that state now has a proposed map, very close to its existing map.

California has a new proposed map, and it differs from the earlier proposed one by making the three San Diego districts solidly Democratic, instead of two Democratic and one competitive. In turn, Darrell Issa's nearby district will become more strongly Republican.

Here are two Democrats and one Republican from Orange County and nearby:

WhoPrtyOldNewP OldP 1P 220182020
Katie PorterDCA-45CA-44+6-2-4+4.2+7.0
Mike LevinDCA-49CA-48+7+3+2+12.8+6.2
Michelle SteelRCA-48CA-47-2+4+6+7.2-2.2

Signs: + is D, - is R. It'll be tough for Katie Porter and Mike Levin. Might Katie Porter want to switch districts with Michelle Steel?

Minnesota's redistricting is now in the courts, with the Supreme Court's Chief Justice having appointed a five-judge panel for doing it. Four different sets of plaintiffs have now proposed maps to that panel.

New Mexico's most recent proposed map has a central district with D+11, a northern one with D+5, and a southern one with D+4, currently represented by a Republican. Its predecessor had D+12, D+4, D+4, and the existing one is D+18, D+14, R+14.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "It’s official: ..." / Twitter
It’s official: CA’s citizen commission votes 14-0 to approve new congressional lines. In a huge win for Dems, all 42 of their incumbents get double digit Biden seats (two are merged due to CA’s seat loss).

Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable.

The last big remaining redistricting puzzle pieces: are Dems able to pass a really aggressive gerrymander in NY? And do courts strike down GOP gerrymanders in NC and/or OH? If those break Dems’ way, we’re looking at a wash nationally. If not, result would be a small GOP gain.

The CA map is both less competitive and better for Dems than initial drafts (and my priors heading into the process). The main feature of the new map: 18 seats w/ 50%+ Latino voting age populations, up from 13 now.
I looked at the responses, and I found a link to this: Redistricting: Orange County’s new Congressional districts shuffle incumbents – Orange County Register
Democratic Rep. Katie Porter on Monday said she’ll run for reelection in 2022 in a newly drawn coastal district that includes her hometown of Irvine, not her current House seat.

...
Porter’s shift to the coastal district, where voter registration will lean Democrat by just one point, raises the prospect of Porter facing off against GOP Rep. Michelle Steel, who lives in Seal Beach. It’s also possible that Steel, who is Korean-American, will run in a new House district that includes Little Saigon and parts of north Orange County. It is estimated that the new district will be about 38% Asian American, but voter registration will lean Democrat by about 5 percentage points.

...
Meanwhile, Steel’s fellow GOP Congresswoman and longtime friend, Rep. Young Kim, who’s also Korean American, lives just outside the new north county district. Her stretch of La Habra was drawn in with a Los Angeles County district that roughly aligns with one now represented by Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whitter.

Political observers are speculating that Kim will run in the new version of Porter’s old seat, which now will be heavily Republican as it stretches from Rancho Mission Viejo north through Yorba Linda and into Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.
538 has the initially-proposed map and maps for Dec. 13, 15, and 18.

Katie Porter's districts: Old 45: +6, New 47: +4, +6, +6, +6

So it looks like she'll be safe, and she won't even have to live out of carpetbags to be safe.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
It's now on 538, California's redistricting commission's approved map, adding to the previous ones.

The partisan compositions of the original and proposed maps:
  • Old: D 44, C 2, R 7
  • First: D 39, C 6, R 7
  • D13: D 41, C 4, R 7
  • D14: D 41, C 4, R 7
  • D18: D 42, C 3, R 7
  • Apvd: D 43, C 2, R 7
So California lost one Democratic seat.

In Orange County, home of "B-1 Bob" Dornan and Whiteboard Katie,
  • Katie Porter D: Old 45: +6, New 47: +4, +6, +6, +6, +6
  • Young Kim R: Old 39: +6, New 39: +5, +5, +5, +5, +5
  • Michelle Steel R: Old 48: -2, (New 44): -2, -4, -4, -4, -4
  • Andy Levin D: Old 49: +7, New 48: +3, +2, +2, +2, +5
The ()'s mean a likely choice of district to run in.

San Diego's three districts are now pro-Democratic, but in the first proposed map, one of them became competitive at +2. In later ones, it became pro-Democratic again. Sara Jacobs's district (53) +32, (52) +2, +22.

To the east, Darrell Issa went from (50) -14 to (49) -6, -19
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Dave Wasserman: "Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable."
Max Vitek on Twitter: "@MrTibbsMeow @Redistrict
Calvert (RiversideCo) Trump +8 to +2
Garcia (North LACo Biden +8ish to +10ish (forgot exact numbers)
Valadao (South Central Valley Biden+11 to +13
McClintock Trump+10 to +2." / Twitter

That's only 4 of them
  • Ken Calvert (42) -13, (42) -5, (41) -7
  • Mike Garcia (25) +5, (25) +8, +9, +9, +8, +8
  • David Valadao (21) +9, (21) +3, +6, +6, (22) +10, +10
  • Tom McClintock (4) -15, (4) -11, -10, -10, (3) -8, -8
Last year, the Democrats didn't perform as well as expected because many downballot candidates got a "Trump bump", as it might be called. The absence of him from the ballot will likely help the Democrats.

Also, the districts were redrawn rather drastically in the eastern part of the state, and TMC moved from east but mostly inland to stretching along much of the state's eastern border.

Devin Nunes's district, CA-22, now CA-21, was redrawn to include more of Fresno, and it changed from -11 to +5, then +16.

DN, however, quit to join Donald Trump's media company, leaving his district open.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Arizona now has a map. Somewhat more Republican-leaning than the current map, enough to cause trouble for two of the Democratic incumbents. Paul Gosar's and Andy Biggs's districts are still safely Republican, however.


In California, Young Kim and Michelle Steel are competing for CA-45, NW Orange County, +5, while CA-40, NE Orange County, -5, is now an open seat. Katie Porter's new district is CA-47, SW Orange County, +8, and Mike Levin's new district is CA-49, SE Orange County, +5.

California's new congressional maps produce a scrambled playing field - CNNPolitics

Like fmr Rep. Harley Rouda of Orange County: Harley Rouda on Twitter: "My latest statement. (pic link)" / Twitter
Redistricting in California is now complete. On one hand, the district I live in, ran in for years, and most importantly represented, is still about 70% intact. And when we look at Orange County as a whole, the opportunity to pick up two additional seats on the of Democratic side of the ledger was clear and never more achievable. By doing so, we would have our best chance of holding our majority in Congress, while stopping the radical right from controlling the government they sought to overthrow on January 6th.

However, this chance to flip the county back entirely is no longer the case. I learned via Twitter that Representative Porter has left the district that includes 70% of her constituents, and is now running in my coastal district.

I believe this district's voters want moderate, pragmatic leadership, and I firmly believe that I am the most electable Democrat in this district; but I am also a realist, whose goal has always been to put my constituents and our country first.

Towards that end, my family and I will be taking this opportunity to spend the holidays together, and evaluate all the options laid before us.
In other words, he doesn't expect to win against KP in the new CA-47. Its former Rep, Michelle Steel, has moved into the new CA-45, along with Young Kim. So he should move there.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "National update: ..." / Twitter
National update: on the current trajectory, there will actually be a few *more* Biden-won congressional districts after redistricting than there are now (224/435).

That said, there are going to be dozens of narrowly Biden-won seats that are very tenuous for Dems in a rough cycle (esp. in AZ, OH, MI, VA, NV).

The biggest threat to Dems' House majority isn't redistricting; it's Biden's approval rating.

Factoring in CA/AZ/NJ, redistricting is shaping up to be close to a wash. The biggest casualty? Competitive seats. In the 27 states that are complete (or nearly):

Trump +5 or more: 106 -> 117 (+10%)
Biden +5 or more: 138 -> 144 (+4%)

Highly competitive: 34 -> 19 (-44%)
then
Michael McDonald on Twitter: "I’m old enough to remember when @redistrict predicted Dems were getting screwed by redistricting reform in places like CA and NJ" / Twitter
then
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "They still are. If blue states hadn't embraced redistricting reform more than red states and Dems had the ability to gerrymander CA, CO, NJ, VA & WA, they could easily seize ~10 more seats and would have a much better shot at retaining the majority in 2022." / Twitter
then
Katie Hill on Twitter: "Not saying we *should* but… it’s not great when one side wants to do things right and the other doesn’t give a fuck" / Twitter
then
Katie Hill on Twitter: "To those saying we should… reminder that most states w/ independent commissions have them because of voter-led reforms. It’s popular and the right thing for democracy.

What *should* happen is a federal requirement for all states to do that - like HR1 would do if passed." / Twitter
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
New Jersey now has a map. It's more favorable to Democrats than the existing maps, with Republican-leaning seats going from 3 to 2 and competitive ones from 3 to 1. That makes Democrats go from 6 to 9.

That remaining competitive one, NJ-07, went from +4 to -3, it must be noted.

What's happening in Connecticut: Lawmakers Fail to Reach Deal on Congressional District Lines – NBC Connecticut
A bipartisan commission tasked with redrawing the boundaries for Connecticut's congressional districts failed to meet its deadline on Tuesday, sending the challenging job of crafting a new map to the Connecticut Supreme Court once again.

In 2011, the last time boundaries were redrawn, lawmakers couldn’t reach agreement on the congressional districts and the state's highest court named a special master to redraw the lines.

Over in Orange County in California, Young Kim is now running in CA-40 (NE OC, -5). Michelle Steel is still running in CA-45 (NW OC, +5). Harley Rouda might challenge her.


There are now 5 unmapped states: CT, NE, MO, KY, LA. Of the mapped states, 6 are single-district, 22 have accepted maps, and 17 have proposed maps.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
California now has a map. What the state's redistricting commission decided on.

I'll be watching Katie Porter and other CA House candidates to see if they update their campaign sites.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Michigan now has a map. It subtracts one Republican-leaning seat and makes another one more competitive.

Rashida Tlaib's district, MI-13, has become MI-12. It has been moved away from downtown Detroit and moved northward.

Ayanna Pressley's district, MA-07, barely changed. I looked at all of the proposed Minnesota maps, and Ilhan Omar's district, MN-05, barely changed in them.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Virginia now has a map. The state has the same partisan composition, but with significantly different district boundaries.

Democrats in competitive districts there: Abigail Spanberger VA-07 went from -5 to +2, and Elaine Luria VA-02 from -2 to -6.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Georgia now has a map, with one seat going from competitive to Republican. GA-07, Carolyn Bourdeaux's district in eastern Atlanta, has gone from -4 to +16, and GA-06, Lucy McBath's district in northern Atlanta, has gone from +1 to -24. LMB has fled her district and she is now running in GA-07 against CB.

Missouri now has a proposed map. Republican state Rep. Dan Shaul, the head of Missouri’s redistricting committee, proposed it, but it has much the same partisan composition as the current map. Some Republicans in the legislature want it more tilted toward Republicans.

New York continues its drama llama. NYS redistricting commission sends maps to the legislature
After an acrimonious meeting and amid accusations of partisanship, the New York State Independent Commission voted Monday morning to send two different sets of redistricting maps to the state legislature. The 10 commissioners voted along party lines, so no set of maps reached a majority, with the vote ending in a 5-5 tie.

...
The state legislature can now vote on these two submitted plans. If it fails to approve a plan by a two-thirds majority in both chambers or a plan is vetoed by the governor, the commission will be able to present new maps by Feb. 28. If those also fail, the legislature will draw plans of its own.
The Democratic commissioners want D 18, R 5, C 3, and the Republican ones want D 17, R 6, C 3. (C = competitive)

The Democrats control both houses in the state legislature, so they can try to get even more Democratic seats.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Kentucky: Jan. 7, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date) - its partisan composition is close to the current map's composition: 1 D 5 R. Four of the districts are strongly Republican in both old and new maps.

The unmapped states are down to 3: CT, KS, LA. Of the mapped states, 6 are single-district, 26 have accepted maps, and 15 have proposed maps.

The unmapped NE in a previous post is a mistake: it should have been KS.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Connecticut: Feb. 15, 2022 - Deadline for state Supreme Court to enact map if commission doesn't succeed - that court has appointed a master to work on it - "The special master must release his own map to the public by Jan. 18. People can then submit proposed changes until Jan. 24, and the justices will hold a public hearing on Jan. 27."

CT's new district maps are almost identical to the old ones, and they have very close partisan composition. In district-number order:
  • O: +21, +3, +14, +22, +3
  • D: +21, +3, +12, +23, +3
  • R: +22, +3, +12, +23, +2
O = old maps
D, R = Democratic and Republican commissioners' proposals.

In other redistricting news, Court upholds state legislative redistricting plan Capitolnewsillinois.com -- in Illinois
A three-judge federal court panel has upheld the legislative redistricting plan that state lawmakers approved during a special session last summer, thus leaving in place the new maps that will govern state legislative elections for the next 10 years.

In their 64-page opinion, released Thursday, Dec. 30, the judges said the plaintiffs in the three separate lawsuits had failed to show that the redistricting plan violated federal law or the U.S. Constitution by diluting Latino voting power in Chicago and its surrounding suburbs or Black voting power in the Metro East region on the Illinois side of the St. Louis metropolitan area.

“In the end, we find that the boundaries for Illinois House and Senate districts set out in SB 927 neither violate neither the Voting Rights Act nor the Constitution,” the panel wrote. “The record shows ample evidence of crossover voting to defeat any claim of racially polarized voting sufficient to deny Latino and Black voters of the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice in the challenged districts.”
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
What I'm working from: What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight

Florida: June 13, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)
Based on their proposals so far, it seems like Florida Republicans have some genuine disagreements over how aggressively to draw the lines — or what they can get away with in front of the Florida Supreme Court. We should get a resolution soon, as lawmakers are expected to finalize a new map during the current legislative session. Previous maps, which formed the basis for the current proposals, were judged to be relatively fair by analysts and independent watchdog groups, but the process has been criticized for its lack of public involvement.
Here's a reason for not gerrymandering too aggressively: incumbent protection. Because trying to get a lot of seats on one's side means diluting one's vote among them, instead of concentrating one's vote on sure wins.

Kentucky: Jan. 25, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date)
The proposal’s other notable feature is that it does not attempt to add a sixth Republican-controlled seat by splitting up strongly Democratic Louisville. The idea of “cracking” Louisville had percolated in GOP circles, although some Kentucky Republicans — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — opposed the notion.
"Kentucky lawmakers approved state legislative and congressional redistricting plans, which will now be sent to Gov. Beshear's desk."

Mississippi: March 1, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date)
"The map largely leaves the status quo in place ... The map now heads to Gov. Tate Reeves for his signature."

New York: Jan. 25, 2022 - Deadline for commission to submit new map to legislature if initial map is rejected

Two maps set aside, two maps rejected.
The redistricting process now returns to the commission, which will submit another map (or maps) to the legislature for another two-thirds vote within 15 days of the rejection (so by Jan. 25). If that map also fails to pass, the legislature can draw its own and pass it, likely with another two-thirds vote (although there is some ambiguity in the law that might allow a legislature-drawn map to pass with a simple majority).

The only states without proposed maps: KS, LA
 

Jimmy Higgins

Contributor
Joined
Feb 1, 2001
Messages
35,577
Basic Beliefs
Calvinistic Atheist
What was that? Highly partisan and deep red Ohio Supreme Court rejects GOP Redistricting Map... well for the State.

It wasn't a majorly bipartisan decision 4-3, with one Republican (CJ) voting with the three Democrats. The Republicans otherwise said 'our hands are tied'. Ohio was devolving into a partisan single party state. This case might slow the fall down.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
In New York, the two rejected maps were rejected by the state legislature. So the state's redistricting commission will come up with a fifth map.

Rhode Island: June 27, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date) - the redistricting committee now has a map, and the state legislature will vote on it. That map is not much different from the present map.

Tennessee: April 7, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date) - Republicans in the legislature are talking about splitting up Memphis, a strongly Democratic area, so as to get more Republicans in the House.

Washington: Feb. 8, 2022 - Deadline for legislature to make minor amendments to congressional map - the state legislature is now in session, and it will consider the redistricting commission's map.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Arkansas now has a map.

That makes 26 multidistrict states with maps, 6 single-district states, 16 states with proposed maps, and 2 states with no maps proposed yet: KS, LA.

Of the proposed-map states, KY's and MS's maps are ready for those states' governors to sign, and some other states' maps seem ready to go. Some of the maps are in the courts, and that is the likely fate of the maps of PA and WI, whose governors and legislatures are at loggerheads.

Ohio’s Overturned Congressional Map Shows How Lawsuits Might Scramble Redistricting | FiveThirtyEight
The maps in at least 9 states are the subject of lawsuits claiming that those maps are gerrymandered or are otherwise illegal.

Noting
Redistricting: Ohio Supreme Court strikes down congressional map
The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional district map Friday, saying Republicans violated the Ohio Constitution by drawing districts that favored GOP candidates.

Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor was, once again, a key vote in the 4-3 decision to reject the map, which could have given Republicans as much as a 12-3 advantage in a state that voted for President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump, twice.

That violated language overwhelmingly approved by voters in 2018 to prevent a map that unduly favored one party or its incumbents.

"When the dealer stacks the deck in advance, the house usually wins," wrote Justice Michael Donnelly in the court's opinion.

Now, Ohio lawmakers will be sent back to the drawing board to craft a new map within 30 days. If they can't reach a solution, the Ohio Redistricting Commission – a panel of statewide elected officials and state lawmakers – will have 30 days to do so. Mapmakers face a tight turnaround because candidates must file paperwork to run by March 4.
 

lpetrich

Contributor
Joined
Jul 28, 2000
Messages
19,019
Location
Eugene, OR
Gender
Male
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
Not sure where to put this, but this seems like population-number gerrymandering.
Trump set off revolt at Census Bureau with attempt to manipulate the numbers for political advantage - Raw Story - Celebrating 17 Years of Independent Journalism
noting
2020 Census Memo Cites ‘Unprecedented’ Meddling by Trump Administration - The New York Times
"Newly released documents show that top career officials at the Census Bureau had drafted a list of complaints about political interference in the 2020 count."
The memo laid out a string of instances of political interference that senior census officials planned to raise with Wilbur Ross, who was then the secretary of the Commerce Department, which oversees the bureau. The issues involved crucial technical aspects of the count, including the privacy of census respondents, the use of estimates to fill in missing population data, pressure to take shortcuts to produce population totals quickly and political pressure on a crash program that was seeking to identify and count unauthorized immigrants.

...
Kenneth Prewitt, a Columbia University public-affairs scholar who ran the Census Bureau from 1998 to 2001, said in an interview that the careful bureaucratic language belied an extraordinary pushback against political interference.

“This was a very, very strong commitment to independence on their part,” he said. “They said, ‘We’re going to run the technical matters in the way we think we ought to.’”

The officials’ objections, he said, only underscored the need for legislation to shield the Census Bureau from political interference well before the 2030 census gets underway. “I’m very worried about that,” he said.
Just like the election counts -- we should appreciate the bureaucrats who stood firm in the face of Trumpie meddling.
 

Jimmy Higgins

Contributor
Joined
Feb 1, 2001
Messages
35,577
Basic Beliefs
Calvinistic Atheist
Arkansas now has a map.

That makes 26 multidistrict states with maps, 6 single-district states, 16 states with proposed maps, and 2 states with no maps proposed yet: KS, LA.

Of the proposed-map states, KY's and MS's maps are ready for those states' governors to sign, and some other states' maps seem ready to go. Some of the maps are in the courts, and that is the likely fate of the maps of PA and WI, whose governors and legislatures are at loggerheads.

Ohio’s Overturned Congressional Map Shows How Lawsuits Might Scramble Redistricting | FiveThirtyEight
The maps in at least 9 states are the subject of lawsuits claiming that those maps are gerrymandered or are otherwise illegal.
I was curious why the SC would rule against the State, but not Federal, and they just ruled against the Federal, again 4-3 with the GOP CJ siding with the Democrats on the Supreme Court.

The Ohio map is so grossfully gerrymandered, that it allowing it would have been a complete travesty of Democracy... yet three GOP judges elected to the Supreme Court were fine letting it exist, trying to justify their position based on technicalities, the Plessy v Ferguson method of justice. Now my district might not be as meshed with shitty Medina County....

...no offense TV&CreditCards. :D
 
Top Bottom