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Redistricting for the US House and the US state legislatures

Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "It’s official: ..." / Twitter
It’s official: CA’s citizen commission votes 14-0 to approve new congressional lines. In a huge win for Dems, all 42 of their incumbents get double digit Biden seats (two are merged due to CA’s seat loss).

Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable.

The last big remaining redistricting puzzle pieces: are Dems able to pass a really aggressive gerrymander in NY? And do courts strike down GOP gerrymanders in NC and/or OH? If those break Dems’ way, we’re looking at a wash nationally. If not, result would be a small GOP gain.

The CA map is both less competitive and better for Dems than initial drafts (and my priors heading into the process). The main feature of the new map: 18 seats w/ 50%+ Latino voting age populations, up from 13 now.
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I looked at the responses, and I found a link to this: Redistricting: Orange County’s new Congressional districts shuffle incumbents – Orange County Register
Democratic Rep. Katie Porter on Monday said she’ll run for reelection in 2022 in a newly drawn coastal district that includes her hometown of Irvine, not her current House seat.

...
Porter’s shift to the coastal district, where voter registration will lean Democrat by just one point, raises the prospect of Porter facing off against GOP Rep. Michelle Steel, who lives in Seal Beach. It’s also possible that Steel, who is Korean-American, will run in a new House district that includes Little Saigon and parts of north Orange County. It is estimated that the new district will be about 38% Asian American, but voter registration will lean Democrat by about 5 percentage points.

...
Meanwhile, Steel’s fellow GOP Congresswoman and longtime friend, Rep. Young Kim, who’s also Korean American, lives just outside the new north county district. Her stretch of La Habra was drawn in with a Los Angeles County district that roughly aligns with one now represented by Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whitter.

Political observers are speculating that Kim will run in the new version of Porter’s old seat, which now will be heavily Republican as it stretches from Rancho Mission Viejo north through Yorba Linda and into Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.
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538 has the initially-proposed map and maps for Dec. 13, 15, and 18.

Katie Porter's districts: Old 45: +6, New 47: +4, +6, +6, +6

So it looks like she'll be safe, and she won't even have to live out of carpetbags to be safe.
 
It's now on 538, California's redistricting commission's approved map, adding to the previous ones.

The partisan compositions of the original and proposed maps:
  • Old: D 44, C 2, R 7
  • First: D 39, C 6, R 7
  • D13: D 41, C 4, R 7
  • D14: D 41, C 4, R 7
  • D18: D 42, C 3, R 7
  • Apvd: D 43, C 2, R 7
So California lost one Democratic seat.

In Orange County, home of "B-1 Bob" Dornan and Whiteboard Katie,
  • Katie Porter D: Old 45: +6, New 47: +4, +6, +6, +6, +6
  • Young Kim R: Old 39: +6, New 39: +5, +5, +5, +5, +5
  • Michelle Steel R: Old 48: -2, (New 44): -2, -4, -4, -4, -4
  • Andy Levin D: Old 49: +7, New 48: +3, +2, +2, +2, +5
The ()'s mean a likely choice of district to run in.

San Diego's three districts are now pro-Democratic, but in the first proposed map, one of them became competitive at +2. In later ones, it became pro-Democratic again. Sara Jacobs's district (53) +32, (52) +2, +22.

To the east, Darrell Issa went from (50) -14 to (49) -6, -19
 
Dave Wasserman: "Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable."
Max Vitek on Twitter: "@MrTibbsMeow @Redistrict
Calvert (RiversideCo) Trump +8 to +2
Garcia (North LACo Biden +8ish to +10ish (forgot exact numbers)
Valadao (South Central Valley Biden+11 to +13
McClintock Trump+10 to +2." / Twitter
That's only 4 of them
  • Ken Calvert (42) -13, (42) -5, (41) -7
  • Mike Garcia (25) +5, (25) +8, +9, +9, +8, +8
  • David Valadao (21) +9, (21) +3, +6, +6, (22) +10, +10
  • Tom McClintock (4) -15, (4) -11, -10, -10, (3) -8, -8
Last year, the Democrats didn't perform as well as expected because many downballot candidates got a "Trump bump", as it might be called. The absence of him from the ballot will likely help the Democrats.

Also, the districts were redrawn rather drastically in the eastern part of the state, and TMC moved from east but mostly inland to stretching along much of the state's eastern border.

Devin Nunes's district, CA-22, now CA-21, was redrawn to include more of Fresno, and it changed from -11 to +5, then +16.

DN, however, quit to join Donald Trump's media company, leaving his district open.
 
Arizona now has a map. Somewhat more Republican-leaning than the current map, enough to cause trouble for two of the Democratic incumbents. Paul Gosar's and Andy Biggs's districts are still safely Republican, however.


In California, Young Kim and Michelle Steel are competing for CA-45, NW Orange County, +5, while CA-40, NE Orange County, -5, is now an open seat. Katie Porter's new district is CA-47, SW Orange County, +8, and Mike Levin's new district is CA-49, SE Orange County, +5.

California's new congressional maps produce a scrambled playing field - CNNPolitics

Like fmr Rep. Harley Rouda of Orange County: Harley Rouda on Twitter: "My latest statement. (pic link)" / Twitter
Redistricting in California is now complete. On one hand, the district I live in, ran in for years, and most importantly represented, is still about 70% intact. And when we look at Orange County as a whole, the opportunity to pick up two additional seats on the of Democratic side of the ledger was clear and never more achievable. By doing so, we would have our best chance of holding our majority in Congress, while stopping the radical right from controlling the government they sought to overthrow on January 6th.

However, this chance to flip the county back entirely is no longer the case. I learned via Twitter that Representative Porter has left the district that includes 70% of her constituents, and is now running in my coastal district.

I believe this district's voters want moderate, pragmatic leadership, and I firmly believe that I am the most electable Democrat in this district; but I am also a realist, whose goal has always been to put my constituents and our country first.

Towards that end, my family and I will be taking this opportunity to spend the holidays together, and evaluate all the options laid before us.
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In other words, he doesn't expect to win against KP in the new CA-47. Its former Rep, Michelle Steel, has moved into the new CA-45, along with Young Kim. So he should move there.
 
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "National update: ..." / Twitter
National update: on the current trajectory, there will actually be a few *more* Biden-won congressional districts after redistricting than there are now (224/435).

That said, there are going to be dozens of narrowly Biden-won seats that are very tenuous for Dems in a rough cycle (esp. in AZ, OH, MI, VA, NV).

The biggest threat to Dems' House majority isn't redistricting; it's Biden's approval rating.

Factoring in CA/AZ/NJ, redistricting is shaping up to be close to a wash. The biggest casualty? Competitive seats. In the 27 states that are complete (or nearly):

Trump +5 or more: 106 -> 117 (+10%)
Biden +5 or more: 138 -> 144 (+4%)

Highly competitive: 34 -> 19 (-44%)
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then
Michael McDonald on Twitter: "I’m old enough to remember when @redistrict predicted Dems were getting screwed by redistricting reform in places like CA and NJ" / Twitter
then
Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "They still are. If blue states hadn't embraced redistricting reform more than red states and Dems had the ability to gerrymander CA, CO, NJ, VA & WA, they could easily seize ~10 more seats and would have a much better shot at retaining the majority in 2022." / Twitter
then
Katie Hill on Twitter: "Not saying we *should* but… it’s not great when one side wants to do things right and the other doesn’t give a fuck" / Twitter
then
Katie Hill on Twitter: "To those saying we should… reminder that most states w/ independent commissions have them because of voter-led reforms. It’s popular and the right thing for democracy.

What *should* happen is a federal requirement for all states to do that - like HR1 would do if passed." / Twitter
 
New Jersey now has a map. It's more favorable to Democrats than the existing maps, with Republican-leaning seats going from 3 to 2 and competitive ones from 3 to 1. That makes Democrats go from 6 to 9.

That remaining competitive one, NJ-07, went from +4 to -3, it must be noted.

What's happening in Connecticut: Lawmakers Fail to Reach Deal on Congressional District Lines – NBC Connecticut
A bipartisan commission tasked with redrawing the boundaries for Connecticut's congressional districts failed to meet its deadline on Tuesday, sending the challenging job of crafting a new map to the Connecticut Supreme Court once again.

In 2011, the last time boundaries were redrawn, lawmakers couldn’t reach agreement on the congressional districts and the state's highest court named a special master to redraw the lines.
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Over in Orange County in California, Young Kim is now running in CA-40 (NE OC, -5). Michelle Steel is still running in CA-45 (NW OC, +5). Harley Rouda might challenge her.


There are now 5 unmapped states: CT, NE, MO, KY, LA. Of the mapped states, 6 are single-district, 22 have accepted maps, and 17 have proposed maps.
 
California now has a map. What the state's redistricting commission decided on.

I'll be watching Katie Porter and other CA House candidates to see if they update their campaign sites.
 
Michigan now has a map. It subtracts one Republican-leaning seat and makes another one more competitive.

Rashida Tlaib's district, MI-13, has become MI-12. It has been moved away from downtown Detroit and moved northward.

Ayanna Pressley's district, MA-07, barely changed. I looked at all of the proposed Minnesota maps, and Ilhan Omar's district, MN-05, barely changed in them.
 
Virginia now has a map. The state has the same partisan composition, but with significantly different district boundaries.

Democrats in competitive districts there: Abigail Spanberger VA-07 went from -5 to +2, and Elaine Luria VA-02 from -2 to -6.
 
Georgia now has a map, with one seat going from competitive to Republican. GA-07, Carolyn Bourdeaux's district in eastern Atlanta, has gone from -4 to +16, and GA-06, Lucy McBath's district in northern Atlanta, has gone from +1 to -24. LMB has fled her district and she is now running in GA-07 against CB.

Missouri now has a proposed map. Republican state Rep. Dan Shaul, the head of Missouri’s redistricting committee, proposed it, but it has much the same partisan composition as the current map. Some Republicans in the legislature want it more tilted toward Republicans.

New York continues its drama llama. NYS redistricting commission sends maps to the legislature
After an acrimonious meeting and amid accusations of partisanship, the New York State Independent Commission voted Monday morning to send two different sets of redistricting maps to the state legislature. The 10 commissioners voted along party lines, so no set of maps reached a majority, with the vote ending in a 5-5 tie.

...
The state legislature can now vote on these two submitted plans. If it fails to approve a plan by a two-thirds majority in both chambers or a plan is vetoed by the governor, the commission will be able to present new maps by Feb. 28. If those also fail, the legislature will draw plans of its own.
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The Democratic commissioners want D 18, R 5, C 3, and the Republican ones want D 17, R 6, C 3. (C = competitive)

The Democrats control both houses in the state legislature, so they can try to get even more Democratic seats.
 
Kentucky: Jan. 7, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date) - its partisan composition is close to the current map's composition: 1 D 5 R. Four of the districts are strongly Republican in both old and new maps.

The unmapped states are down to 3: CT, KS, LA. Of the mapped states, 6 are single-district, 26 have accepted maps, and 15 have proposed maps.

The unmapped NE in a previous post is a mistake: it should have been KS.
 
Connecticut: Feb. 15, 2022 - Deadline for state Supreme Court to enact map if commission doesn't succeed - that court has appointed a master to work on it - "The special master must release his own map to the public by Jan. 18. People can then submit proposed changes until Jan. 24, and the justices will hold a public hearing on Jan. 27."

CT's new district maps are almost identical to the old ones, and they have very close partisan composition. In district-number order:
  • O: +21, +3, +14, +22, +3
  • D: +21, +3, +12, +23, +3
  • R: +22, +3, +12, +23, +2
O = old maps
D, R = Democratic and Republican commissioners' proposals.

In other redistricting news, Court upholds state legislative redistricting plan Capitolnewsillinois.com -- in Illinois
A three-judge federal court panel has upheld the legislative redistricting plan that state lawmakers approved during a special session last summer, thus leaving in place the new maps that will govern state legislative elections for the next 10 years.

In their 64-page opinion, released Thursday, Dec. 30, the judges said the plaintiffs in the three separate lawsuits had failed to show that the redistricting plan violated federal law or the U.S. Constitution by diluting Latino voting power in Chicago and its surrounding suburbs or Black voting power in the Metro East region on the Illinois side of the St. Louis metropolitan area.

“In the end, we find that the boundaries for Illinois House and Senate districts set out in SB 927 neither violate neither the Voting Rights Act nor the Constitution,” the panel wrote. “The record shows ample evidence of crossover voting to defeat any claim of racially polarized voting sufficient to deny Latino and Black voters of the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice in the challenged districts.”
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What I'm working from: What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight

Florida: June 13, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date)
Based on their proposals so far, it seems like Florida Republicans have some genuine disagreements over how aggressively to draw the lines — or what they can get away with in front of the Florida Supreme Court. We should get a resolution soon, as lawmakers are expected to finalize a new map during the current legislative session. Previous maps, which formed the basis for the current proposals, were judged to be relatively fair by analysts and independent watchdog groups, but the process has been criticized for its lack of public involvement.
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Here's a reason for not gerrymandering too aggressively: incumbent protection. Because trying to get a lot of seats on one's side means diluting one's vote among them, instead of concentrating one's vote on sure wins.

Kentucky: Jan. 25, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date)
The proposal’s other notable feature is that it does not attempt to add a sixth Republican-controlled seat by splitting up strongly Democratic Louisville. The idea of “cracking” Louisville had percolated in GOP circles, although some Kentucky Republicans — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — opposed the notion.
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"Kentucky lawmakers approved state legislative and congressional redistricting plans, which will now be sent to Gov. Beshear's desk."

Mississippi: March 1, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date)
"The map largely leaves the status quo in place ... The map now heads to Gov. Tate Reeves for his signature."

New York: Jan. 25, 2022 - Deadline for commission to submit new map to legislature if initial map is rejected

Two maps set aside, two maps rejected.
The redistricting process now returns to the commission, which will submit another map (or maps) to the legislature for another two-thirds vote within 15 days of the rejection (so by Jan. 25). If that map also fails to pass, the legislature can draw its own and pass it, likely with another two-thirds vote (although there is some ambiguity in the law that might allow a legislature-drawn map to pass with a simple majority).
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The only states without proposed maps: KS, LA
 
What was that? Highly partisan and deep red Ohio Supreme Court rejects GOP Redistricting Map... well for the State.

It wasn't a majorly bipartisan decision 4-3, with one Republican (CJ) voting with the three Democrats. The Republicans otherwise said 'our hands are tied'. Ohio was devolving into a partisan single party state. This case might slow the fall down.
 
In New York, the two rejected maps were rejected by the state legislature. So the state's redistricting commission will come up with a fifth map.

Rhode Island: June 27, 2022 - Date that candidates begin filing for congressional runs (therefore map should be set by this date) - the redistricting committee now has a map, and the state legislature will vote on it. That map is not much different from the present map.

Tennessee: April 7, 2022 - Deadline for congressional candidates to file (therefore map should be set by this date) - Republicans in the legislature are talking about splitting up Memphis, a strongly Democratic area, so as to get more Republicans in the House.

Washington: Feb. 8, 2022 - Deadline for legislature to make minor amendments to congressional map - the state legislature is now in session, and it will consider the redistricting commission's map.
 
Arkansas now has a map.

That makes 26 multidistrict states with maps, 6 single-district states, 16 states with proposed maps, and 2 states with no maps proposed yet: KS, LA.

Of the proposed-map states, KY's and MS's maps are ready for those states' governors to sign, and some other states' maps seem ready to go. Some of the maps are in the courts, and that is the likely fate of the maps of PA and WI, whose governors and legislatures are at loggerheads.

Ohio’s Overturned Congressional Map Shows How Lawsuits Might Scramble Redistricting | FiveThirtyEight
The maps in at least 9 states are the subject of lawsuits claiming that those maps are gerrymandered or are otherwise illegal.

Noting
Redistricting: Ohio Supreme Court strikes down congressional map
The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional district map Friday, saying Republicans violated the Ohio Constitution by drawing districts that favored GOP candidates.

Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor was, once again, a key vote in the 4-3 decision to reject the map, which could have given Republicans as much as a 12-3 advantage in a state that voted for President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump, twice.

That violated language overwhelmingly approved by voters in 2018 to prevent a map that unduly favored one party or its incumbents.

"When the dealer stacks the deck in advance, the house usually wins," wrote Justice Michael Donnelly in the court's opinion.

Now, Ohio lawmakers will be sent back to the drawing board to craft a new map within 30 days. If they can't reach a solution, the Ohio Redistricting Commission – a panel of statewide elected officials and state lawmakers – will have 30 days to do so. Mapmakers face a tight turnaround because candidates must file paperwork to run by March 4.
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Not sure where to put this, but this seems like population-number gerrymandering.
Trump set off revolt at Census Bureau with attempt to manipulate the numbers for political advantage - Raw Story - Celebrating 17 Years of Independent Journalism
noting
2020 Census Memo Cites ‘Unprecedented’ Meddling by Trump Administration - The New York Times
"Newly released documents show that top career officials at the Census Bureau had drafted a list of complaints about political interference in the 2020 count."
The memo laid out a string of instances of political interference that senior census officials planned to raise with Wilbur Ross, who was then the secretary of the Commerce Department, which oversees the bureau. The issues involved crucial technical aspects of the count, including the privacy of census respondents, the use of estimates to fill in missing population data, pressure to take shortcuts to produce population totals quickly and political pressure on a crash program that was seeking to identify and count unauthorized immigrants.

...
Kenneth Prewitt, a Columbia University public-affairs scholar who ran the Census Bureau from 1998 to 2001, said in an interview that the careful bureaucratic language belied an extraordinary pushback against political interference.

“This was a very, very strong commitment to independence on their part,” he said. “They said, ‘We’re going to run the technical matters in the way we think we ought to.’”

The officials’ objections, he said, only underscored the need for legislation to shield the Census Bureau from political interference well before the 2030 census gets underway. “I’m very worried about that,” he said.
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Just like the election counts -- we should appreciate the bureaucrats who stood firm in the face of Trumpie meddling.
 
lpetrich said:
Arkansas now has a map.

That makes 26 multidistrict states with maps, 6 single-district states, 16 states with proposed maps, and 2 states with no maps proposed yet: KS, LA.

Of the proposed-map states, KY's and MS's maps are ready for those states' governors to sign, and some other states' maps seem ready to go. Some of the maps are in the courts, and that is the likely fate of the maps of PA and WI, whose governors and legislatures are at loggerheads.

Ohio’s Overturned Congressional Map Shows How Lawsuits Might Scramble Redistricting | FiveThirtyEight
The maps in at least 9 states are the subject of lawsuits claiming that those maps are gerrymandered or are otherwise illegal.
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I was curious why the SC would rule against the State, but not Federal, and they just ruled against the Federal, again 4-3 with the GOP CJ siding with the Democrats on the Supreme Court.

The Ohio map is so grossfully gerrymandered, that it allowing it would have been a complete travesty of Democracy... yet three GOP judges elected to the Supreme Court were fine letting it exist, trying to justify their position based on technicalities, the Plessy v Ferguson method of justice. Now my district might not be as meshed with shitty Medina County....

...no offense TV&CreditCards. :D
 
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