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Redistricting for the US House and the US state legislatures

Drama llama.

A Kansas redistricting map is unconstitutional, a state judge rules - "A Wyandotte County judge strikes down Kansas Congressional map as unconstitutional in a historic ruling"
Wyandotte County District Court Judge Bill Klapper called the maps passed over the veto of Gov. Laura Kelly earlier this year to be "motivated at least in part by an intent to dilute minority voting strength" and said the state courts had the right to take up redistricting cases.

Three lawsuits were filed challenging the map, arguing the new district lines illicitly divide the Kansas City, Kan., area, as well as improperly place Lawrence in the sweeping 1st Congressional District dominated by western Kansas.
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However,
AG Derek Schmidt appeals Wyandotte County District Court decision ordering the Legislature to redraw congressional district boundaries

However, in Kansas's Supreme Court, 7 of the 9 Justices were appointed by Democratic governors: Kansas Supreme Court - Ballotpedia

From 538:
The map in question creates three Republican-leaning seats and one highly competitive seat, same as the current configuration. However, it would split up majority-minority Wyandotte County (where Kansas City is located) for the first time since the 1980s, taking the 3rd District from a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of D+4 to R+3. This will likely endanger the reelection prospects of Rep. Sharice Davids, Kansas’s only Democratic member of Congress.

The map became law in early February despite opposition from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Republicans in the Kansas Legislature overrode her veto by the skin of their teeth: The override got the minimum 27 necessary votes in the state Senate and one over the required 84 votes in the state House.
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New York State's map is now being litigated.

ny-gerrymander.pdf - "A New York state appellate court struck down the state's congressional map as a partisan gerrymander in violation of the state's constitution."

The maps' partisan compositions (strong D, weak D, tossup, weak R, strong R):
  • Earlier: 15-2-3-4-3
  • Recently adopted: 13-7-2-0-4
  • Steve Dunn: 12-3-4-5-2
  • Empire Center: 13-3-3-5-2
  • R's proposal: 12-4-3-4-3

From 538,
The map struck down by the courts was designed to give Democrats a huge advantage in the state and was largely approved along partisan lines in the legislature. The map creates 20 Democratic-leaning seats, only four Republican-leaning seats and two highly competitive seats (both of which tilt toward Democrats themselves).

This is an increase of three Democratic-leaning seats, a decrease of three Republican-leaning seats and a decrease of one highly competitive seat from the old map. If the map survives its legal challenge, it would likely set up Democrats to flip the open Republican-held 1st and 22nd districts, as well as Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’s 11th District. The map also eliminates a Republican-held seat in central New York.

Two of the proposed alternatives, one from Republican plaintiffs in the lawsuit against the previously enacted map and one from the Empire Center for Public Policy, a nonprofit based in Albany, create 16 Democratic-leaning seats, seven Republican-leaning seats and three highly competitive seats. The third proposal, from Stephen W. Dunn, would create 15 Democratic-leaning seats, seven Republican-leaning seats, and four highly competitive seats. These alternatives are more proportional with how New Yorkers vote.
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Looking at the NY maps, the maps by Steve Wynn, the Empire Center, and the Republican litigants all make Staten Island weakly Republican, just like in the previous map, and unlike in the adopted map, which makes that NYC borough weakly Democratic.

There are various other differences between the maps, but I find it hard for me to recognize overall patterns. Most of them make AOC's district, NY-14, much like the previous map's version, but Steve Wynn makes a Bronx that has parts of both NY-14 and NY-15, Ritchie Torres's district. So AOC and RT would be shoved into one district.

Another article: New York's congressional maps were improperly gerrymandered, mid-level court concludes - POLITICO


In New Hampshire, the state legislature offered up another map, one much like its earlier one that Gov. Chris Sununu vetoed.


In Florida is some big drama llama. Ron DeSantis's map gerrymanders out of existence some black-majority districts, and he's now gotten the state legislature to endorse it, despite some fellow Republicans preferring to keep those districts.

Florida Democrats stage sit-in on House floor over congressional redistricting map - "Republicans leave, then reconvene to pass the map over shouts. It’s expected to reduce the number of Black Democratic members in Congress."

Florida approves DeSantis-backed congressional maps that dismantle Black lawmaker’s seat - POLITICO - "The newly approved maps cut in half the number of seats designed to allow Black voters to select a candidate of their own choosing."

I've seen the theory that Gov. DeSantis did this to try to get the Supreme Court to get rid of the last parts of the Voting Rights Act.
 
Missouri's legislature is still at loggerheads over the state's new Congressional maps. New Hampshire's legislature and governor are still at loggerheads at that state's maps. Kansas's supreme court is to hold hearings on a map for that state.

New York?

The rejected map had 13-7-2-0-4 (strong D, lean D, tie, lean R, strong R)

The proposals: Republicans 12-4-3-4-3, Empire Center for Public Policy 13-3-3-5-2, Steve Dunn 12-3-4-5-2 (two), 12-3-5-4-2, Democrats 12-7-3-1-3, Common Cause 12-5-4-3-2, Wilson Prieve 12-5-5-2-2, Ari Spinoza 12-3-5-3-3

The Democrats' one is very similar to the enacted but now rejected one.

Of the maps before that map, the Democrats had 13-4-3-3-3, 13-5-3-2-3, and the Republicans had 13-2-3-6-2, 14-3-3-4-2,
 
Florida judge strikes down part of DeSantis House map | The Hill
A Florida circuit court judge on Wednesday struck down elements of a new congressional district map pushed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), ruling that the version approved by the Republican-controlled state legislature unduly diminished the rights of African American voters in the northern part of the state.

Judge Layne Smith on Wednesday ruled in favor of Democratic plaintiffs, who had sued over map lines that eliminated a historically Black congressional district stretching from Jacksonville west to Tallahassee.

The legislature had initially approved a map that maintained the Black-majority district in north Florida, held by Rep. Al Lawson (D). But DeSantis vetoed that map and insisted the legislature pass his own version, which drew Lawson out of a seat.

Smith cited a voter-approved amendment to the state constitution that requires maps to be drawn in a fair manner.

“I am finding the enacted map is unconstitutional under the Fair District Amendment because it diminishes African Americans’ ability to elect candidates of their choice,” Smith said from the bench.
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What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight
So far, MO and NH are still unapproved and FL, KS, NY have backtracked from approval.
 
Illinois May Be The Worst Democratic Gerrymander In The Country | FiveThirtyEight - "The worst Democratic gerrymander in the country is arguably in Illinois, as it set off a high-stakes game of musical chairs among the state’s five Republican House members."

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight
On May 11, a state judge struck down north Florida’s congressional map, which was drawn by Gov. Ron DeSantis, as unconstitutional because it “diminishes African Americans’ ability to elect candidates of their choice.” In its place, he imposed a map that restores the old configuration of Florida’s 5th Congressional District, which ran from Tallahassee to Jacksonville and where Black people were the largest racial group, but keeps DeSantis’s new central and South Florida districts in place. However, Republicans have appealed the ruling, placing the ruling on hold until a higher court makes a final decision.
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The drama llama continues.
 
Special master Jonathan Cervas has come out with a map. It is 12-4-5-2-3, as opposed to previously enacted 13-7-2-0-4.

It makes Staten Island R+5, it restores the eastern Bronx to NY-14, and it makes NY-05 (N Long Island) D+1.

Jamaal Bowman: Jamaal Bowman on Twitter: "The whole point of redistricting ..." / Twitter
The whole point of redistricting is to create congressional districts that keep communities of interest together. Unfortunately, the map created by the special master splits NY-16’s historically low-income Bronx communities into three congressional districts and decreases the Black voter population by 17%. This occurred despite an outpouring of testimony urging redistricting officials to protect the Black vote by keeping the northeast Bronx with lower Westchester together. The proposal shows that Co-Op City is mapped into NY-14, Williamsbridge and Baychester into NY-15 and Edenwald kept in NY-16. The map data shows that this directly resulted in the Black voter population declining by 17%. Co-Op City, Williamsbrige, and Edenwald are strong communities of interest that must remain together as a unity and connected to lower Westchester. The Black voting power in NY-16 cannot be diluted in favor of more compact but less fair maps.

Edenwald in the Bronx is home to the third-largest public housing community in New York State and one of the largest in the country. The Edenwald community is a vulnerable community that is separated in this proposed map from the other densely populated majority Black communities like Co-Op City, Williamsbridge, and Baychester, whose voting power helps protect these communities’ specific needs around housing, public safety, and poverty alleviation. Similarly, Co-Op city is the largest naturally occurring retirement community in the country predominantly populated by lower-income and Black seniors. By splitting these communities, the map further alienates them and perpetuates the opportunity for further historical neglect by the electoral system. These are communities who have been kept together in maps for decades for good reason and with good intention. Their voting power is directly tied to their lives and they deserve a fair chance at electing representatives that take their unique needs into full consideration. Now, I only have one message for NY-16: I will continue fighting for you, and I will fight to continue to represent you.

I also hope that voters continue to have their voices heard in every elected official that represents them as I intend to continue and advocate for their needs and the needs of every person in NY-16.
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AOC didn't have anything to say on this map, though she would certainly appreciate getting back the Bronx's eastern shore.

Melanie D'Arrigo has more to say, however. Melanie D'Arrigo for NY03 on Twitter: "THIS IS OUR DISTRICT TO WIN: My statement on the draft 2022 Congressional Maps 🧵⬇️ (pic link)" / Twitter
was born and raised in the South Shore of Long Island, started my family of in Queens, and now raise my family in Nassau. The new NY-03 Congressional boundaries reflect the community I've spent years organizing in before I ever considered a run for Congress-and I am proud to keep that fight up as we head towards the August 23, 2022 primary.

Let me be clear: This is our district to win. I am the only progressive in this race, the only organizer in this race. and the only grassroots-powered candidate in the race. Already, we a have built a powerful coalition of support centering the issues that matter most to our community: Medicare for All, reproductive justice, and an economy and democracy that works for working families, not corporations. I look forward to continuing my fight for real representation in NY-03-and together, we will win.
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Melanie D'Arrigo for NY03 on Twitter: "The new NY maps just made #NY03 a lot more competitive. A "status quo" Democrat will not win here.

If we want to keep this seat 🔵, we need to run Democrats who are fighting for the working people of this district and can rally our base. Please chip in ⬇️ (link)" / Twitter
I think that she has the right idea. Get the base to vote, rather than trying to chase Republican votes.

Also, the NY primary elections have been bumped up two months to August 23.
 
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Drama llama in Florida:
Florida is unsettled yet again.

Looking at New York State again, several incumbents are running against other incumbents. In NY-23, at the southern half of the west end of the state, Claudia Tenney and Tom Reed are running against each other. They are now joined by:
  • NY-17 (upstate NY near NYC): Mondaire Jones, Sean Patrick Maloney
  • NY-12 (mid-Manhattan): Jerrold Nadler, Carolyn Maloney
SPM is the head of the DCCC PAC, and he moved from NY-18 (D+2) to NY-17 (D+7).

Neither of them wants the new NY-10, lower Manhattan + part of western Brooklyn.
 
Missouri now has a map.

After some months of being at loggerheads, the state legislatures decided on a map with only hours to spare in its current session. The state's governor then signed it into law. The new map has 2 solidly Democratic districts and 6 solidly Republican ones.

In Kansas, the state's Supreme Court has endorsed the Republican-legislature map. It endangers Sharice Davids's re-election prospects in KS-03, making it go from D+4 to R+3.

NH and NY still don't have maps.

The accepted maps in litigation: AL, AR, FL, GA, KS, KY, LA, MI, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, SC, TX, UT
 
lpetrich said:
Special master Jonathan Cervas has come out with a map. It is 12-4-5-2-3, as opposed to previously enacted 13-7-2-0-4.
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Just based on these numbers, the special master did a decent job making a fairer map.


Jamaal Bowman (via leptrich) said:
The whole point of redistricting is to create congressional districts that keep communities of interest together.
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Wrong. That is not "the whole point of redistricting".
The main point is to divide a state into n districts of equal population for proposes of congressional representation.
The "keeping communities of interest" together is one criterion that can be looked at, but it is hardly the most important one, and it certainly is not "the whole point". I would say that having a map that has a good likelihood of accurately representing the will of the voters at large is more important than "keeping communities of interest" together. And NY Dems created a map that deliberately did a poor job in reflecting the actual will of the electorate, giving themselves a partisan advantage in violation of NY law.

Unfortunately, the map created by the special master splits NY-16’s historically low-income Bronx communities into three congressional districts and decreases the Black voter population by 17%.
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How does it do that? The black voter population is not changed by redistricting. Or does he mean black voter population of 16 district specifically? Because, as I have pointed out in the other thread, old 16th and new 16th are not the same district. They share a number, and some of the territory, but they are different entities. NY even lost one district, so of course you have to change boundaries quite a bit.
Now looking at the proposed map vs. the old map on the 538 site, I do not see any evidence of malicious carving out of communities of interest. I think Bowman is just sour that he might find himself in a primary battle against a fellow lefty.

back to lpetrich said:
I think that she has the right idea. Get the base to vote, rather than trying to chase Republican votes.
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I disagree. Persuasion is better than trying to turn out the base by running to the fringes. Probably electorally, but certainly better for the country.
 
Derec said:
Jamaal Bowman (via leptrich) said:
Unfortunately, the map created by the special master splits NY-16’s historically low-income Bronx communities into three congressional districts and decreases the Black voter population by 17%.
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How does it do that? The black voter population is not changed by redistricting. ...
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Its voting power is diluted by being split up among several districts. Derec, why don't you research gerrymandering techniques some time?

As to ensuring that everybody is well-represented, proportional representation is a good way to go. It's a lot more automatic than trying to construct good single-member districts.
Derec said:
back to lpetrich said:
I think that she has the right idea. Get the base to vote, rather than trying to chase Republican votes.
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I disagree. Persuasion is better than trying to turn out the base by running to the fringes. Probably electorally, but certainly better for the country.
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Tell that to your Republican friends some time.
 
lpetrich said:
Its voting power is diluted by being split up among several districts.
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At the same time, if the voting power is too concentrated, it leads to many wasted votes.
And all this goes for many other demographics. It is not the role of redistricting to optimize for maximum black voting power.
Is there any evidence that this proposed maps somehow discriminates against black voters in particular? Note that not optimizing for maximum black representation is not the same as discrimination against.

Derec, why don't you research gerrymandering techniques some time?
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That's what Dems tried to do, but a majority Dem court invalidated their gerrymandered-to-hell map.

As to ensuring that everybody is well-represented, proportional representation is a good way to go. It's a lot more automatic than trying to construct good single-member districts.
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I've been singing that song for a while!

Tell that to your Republican friends some time.
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Pox on both their houses!
 
One simple way to avoid gerrymandering is to have larger, multi-member districts.

If there are two adjacent districts, where the total support for two parties is roughly evenly split, then amalagamating them into a single district with two elected members both eliminates the possibility of a 2-0 or 0-2 split, and ensures that all voters of both parties have a member in their own district from the party they support, to whom they can go for help with issues that affect them.

This amalgamation need not be of just two districts; The Australian Senate is elected with States and Territories each being a single district with twelve members in each State (and two in each Territory). Election is by Single Transferable Vote, and its not uncommon for minor parties to get at least a few of the twelve state seats, while the major parties get between four and six. For example, before yesterday's election, Queensland had six senators from the LNP, three from ALP, two ONP and one Green. That gives a very large proportion of Queenslanders access to at least one Senator who represents them, both in terms of party affiliation, and of geographical representation.

Certainly in areas of higher population density, where a single city or conurbation has multiple representatives, it seems silly not to have multi-member districts with some sort of proportional representation (and I would like to see that for the lower house here as well as the upper).

In the adjecent seats of Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan, there's a three way split in primary vote between LNP, ALP and Greens; It seems to me that a single district with one member from each party would better serve and better represent the people of these divisions than the more common 3:0:0 split, where the winning candidates all achieved victory by tiny margins on preference allocation, effectively disenfranchising almost two thirds of the total population of the 'super division'.

I suspect that New York City could benefit from a similar amalgamation into multi-member 'superdistricts'.
 
What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - New York | FiveThirtyEight
Just before midnight May 20, a New York state court approved a new congressional map drawn by a court-appointed neutral expert, Jonathan Cervas. Cervas’s map has an efficiency gap of D+6 and creates 16 Democratic-leaning seats, six Republican-leaning seats and four highly competitive seats. This represents an increase of one highly competitive seat, a decrease of one Democratic-leaning seat and a decrease of one Republican-leaning seat compared with the old map.
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(NY lost a seat in the most recent redistricting due to relative loss of population)

Matt Grossman on Twitter: "For those keeping track at home:
#NY10: @MondaireJones vs @BilldeBlasio vs @yuhline vs @CarlinaRivera
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY vs @Britt4Congress
#NY12: @CarolynBMaloney vs @JerryNadler vs @surajpatelnyc vs @RanaForCongress
#NY17: @spmaloney vs @Biaggi4NY" / Twitter
 
What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight

New Hampshire now has a map, thus giving a map to all of 50 states.

Todd Bookman on Twitter: "NEWS: NH Supreme Court signs off on congressional map drawn by special master #NHPolitics (pix link)" / Twitter

This map is almost identical to the old map, and it has the same partisan composition: R+1 D+2

The partisan composition:
  • Old: 148 - 33 - 46 - 52 - 156
  • New: 142 - 45 - 40 - 39 - 169
Solid D, competitive D, highly competitive, competitive R, solid R

"Several of those maps are being challenged in court as illegal gerrymanders, but only Florida’s seems like a serious possibility to be overturned before the midterms."

The ones now being litigated: AL, AR, FL, GA, KS, KY, LA, MI, NC, NM, NV, NY, OH, PA, SC, TX, UT
 
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