Russia decides to arrest Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin

[Jayjay]

Putin addressed the nation and promises harsh response against mutineers. Now, Prigozhin will have no choice but to surrender or die fighting. And his troops might make that choice for him.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Hey barbos, is this actually happening?

 

[TV and credit cards]

What a mug.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

I don’t think it would take much for the average Russian soldier to decide he has a better chance if he joins the mutiny instead of being sent into the meat grinder in Ukraine. They won’t be in any hurry to engage the mercenaries in a firefight.

 

[Jayjay]

This is absolutely bonkers.

 

[Ford]

Hey barbos, is this actually happening?

I was gonna say that Barbos is nervously awaiting the official state talking points, but Putin has already issued a statement from whatever bunker he's moved into. Calling it a "criminal adventure" and "defending the motherland" blah blah blah.

Brave statements aside, they're taking it seriously, As well they should. This can go a lot of ways, but this is just another crack in Putin's once-shiny armor. His ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine exposed his military as incompetent and poorly equipped. The only competence and combat readiness/experience was to be found in Wagner. Now the one part of his army that was doing their jobs well has turned around and is marching towards Moscow.

Zelenskyy, by the way, has just been dealt a pair of aces. He's gotta be beside himself.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

There seems to be some rumors that Pooty over the last few weeks has been purging Russia's military forces of high ranking officers seen as not sufficiently pro-Putin. Apparently the realization Pooty is incompetent is sinking in among many officers. If that realization reaches a critical mass, Pooty might get retired. There is a lot of speculation of what happens if Ukraine takes Crimea. Will that be the tipping point?
Youtube Ukrainian war wonks are having a speculation field day over when does Pooty's wheels come off.

 

[Elixir]

Might be today.
Wagner group has left Ukraine and is moving on Moscow.
Barbos and his fellow Putinistas are probably fighting over the best hiding places right now.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Prigozhin is taking a big gamble. It is 600 miles to Moscow. He has 25,000 troops. It is obvious he cannot fight the entire Russian military forces arrayed against him. Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

 

[Elixir]

Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

Right? Meanwhile, who is minding eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

 

[Ford]

Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

Right? Meanwhile, who is minding eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

A bunch of ill-equipped conscripts led by incompetent generals who just started drinking even more heavily...

 

[Elixir]

Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

Right? Meanwhile, who is minding eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

A bunch of ill-equipped conscripts led by incompetent generals who just started drinking even more heavily...

^ What I was thinking.
Nice day for something. (/fat Freddi’s cat)

 

[Ford]

Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

Right? Meanwhile, who is minding eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

A bunch of ill-equipped conscripts led by incompetent generals who just started drinking even more heavily...

^ What I was thinking.
Nice day for something. (/fat Freddi’s cat)

The conscripts are likely unaware what's going on, but I bet a few of those generals do. Prigozhin says he's not leading a coup, but just wants to replace the incompetent military leadership (aforementioned generals included), but Putin's choices to lead the military are more about loyalty than competence. That kinda rules out Priozhin taking charge while Vlad is still in power.

 

[Elixir]

Sounds like a looming global popcorn shortage.

 

[Jayjay]

Kadyrov seems to align with Putin, has sent his special Akhmat force to Rostov.



Some observations:

1) Kadyrov starts with apologizing for not making the statement sooner, using "flights" as an excuse. Bullshit, he was more likely dragging his feet waiting to see what happens, before getting a call from Kremlin that it's time to start earning his keep.

2) The Chechen tiktok warriors won't have any problem firing at Russian troops, or civilians for that matter, if Kadyrov says so. They're loyal to him, and won't surrender their weapons or switch sides. But that doesn't mean that Kadyrov himself won't switch to Prigozhin's side, if it looks like he's winning. Kadyrov's best play is probably to publicly kowtow Putin's line but delay the confrontation as long as he can.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Hey barbos, is this actually happening?

I was gonna say that Barbos is nervously awaiting the official state talking points, but Putin has already issued a statement from whatever bunker he's moved into. Calling it a "criminal adventure" and "defending the motherland" blah blah blah.

Brave statements aside, they're taking it seriously, As well they should. This can go a lot of ways, but this is just another crack in Putin's once-shiny armor. His ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine exposed his military as incompetent and poorly equipped. The only competence and combat readiness/experience was to be found in Wagner. Now the one part of his army that was doing their jobs well has turned around and is marching towards Moscow.

Zelenskyy, by the way, has just been dealt a pair of aces. He's gotta be beside himself.

That's what I was thinking. I was envisioning a scene from Death of Stalin where they're all going around the table a few times voicing their opinions and completely flip-flopping by time it gets back around to them. They then settle on what reality should be and pass it along to state media.

 

[TV and credit cards]

There seems to be some rumors that Pooty over the last few weeks has been purging Russia's military forces of high ranking officers seen as not sufficiently pro-Putin. Apparently the realization Pooty is incompetent is sinking in among many officers. If that realization reaches a critical mass, Pooty might get retired. There is a lot of speculation of what happens if Ukraine takes Crimea. Will that be the tipping point?
Youtube Ukrainian war wonks are having a speculation field day over when does Pooty's wheels come off.

Good luck with that. Putin trying to find loyal officers is going to look like Trump trying to find a lawyer.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The problem is, if Pootie goes down, his sycophants go dow with him. They know this. So watching all of this means some of them may be beginning to look for ways to gently disengage. To hedge their bets. Nobody knows how this may well work out over the next year. This unsureness will probably be a problem for a lot of people.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Reuters

Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barrelled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia's military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance.

Isn’t this what was supposed to happen to Kyiv? Word is Putin hopped on his doomsday plane and got the hell out. While leaving he was heard saying: “I don’t need ammo. I need a ride.”
I may have stretched a bit on that last statement.

I reckon we must have DEFCONned up.

 

[Rhea]

Well well. A whole lot of news this morning.