• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Russia decides to arrest Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin

Jimmy Higgins said:
TV and credit cards said:
HAVE YOU SEEN ME?
View attachment 43592
Click to expand...
Been pondering about that as well. Granted any agreement would likely require him keeping his mouth shut, but it is interesting his lack of appearance or communication.
Click to expand...
Don't worry, he's alright... he went to a farm in Belarus, where he can live happily ever after. It's a really nice farm with different kinds of animals and he can roam the fields and chase squirrels or tractors or whatever.
 
I'm worried that there are supposed to be rabbits at the farm.

Well, not that worried.
 
Jayjay said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
TV and credit cards said:
HAVE YOU SEEN ME?
View attachment 43592
Click to expand...
Been pondering about that as well. Granted any agreement would likely require him keeping his mouth shut, but it is interesting his lack of appearance or communication.
Click to expand...
Don't worry, he's alright... he went to a farm in Belarus, where he can live happily ever after. It's a really nice farm with different kinds of animals and he can roam the fields and chase squirrels or tractors or whatever.
Click to expand...
Ah. I'm not familiar with Russian euphemisms. So when the kids ask about their grandpa, "He went to Belarus." actually means... got it.
 
There are so many different things ponder regarding Friday/Saturday. Most conclude Putin lost in this. And generally, I don't think that is a bad first impression. Clearly he lost in the world that exists outside Russia. But I have found underestimating Putin isn't wise. Putin seems to have managed to repel an insurrection without firing a bullet. That is a win. And getting the head of Wagner out of the country and away from a group of criminals with heavy weaponry is another victory for Putin. This can't be undersold how important it is short-term. Might not save Putin's ass long-term, but it is significant,

At the same time The loss would be the messaging though. Putin could not pretend this didn't happen. He went on air, declared the guy a traitor... and possibly lost face with the Russian public by then making a deal with him? It is very difficult to tell if the lack of action against Prigozhin was calculated by Putin or not possible.

Meanwhile Prigozhin's actions are probably the hardest to understand, short of he wanted out. The trouble working with the mob is that you are kind of stuck with earlier decisions and leaving isn't quite possible. He couldn't easily leave his troops, he couldn't easily take his troops elsewhere. And when he rattled sabres, he was doing so with Moscow, not Putin. This could be interpreted several ways. Firstly, Russia's Ukraine plan is fucked and he didn't want his neck to get a rope around it. Was the Russian military actually targeting Wagner? This is questionable when Russia's military didn't seem to attack the insurrection. Or maybe there are fractures within the Russian military with differing allegiances to different right-wing factions (right-wing, far right-wing, ultra, right-wing). Prigozhin, like most of the Russian leadership, is likely a fucking moron that is more cult of personality than a tactician. And the fact that he sold out the Wagner group implies this was really about his own neck. After all, how can you really care too much for a bunch of criminals who are killing as a form of probation?

I think the global intelligence crowds have a better grasp at this. Who are the puppeteers. I think all of this is way more complicated and difficult to suss out, without the intel. Putin is weaker, but comes out of this better than most ever thought, at least short-term. But in making a deal with Prigozhin, the question becomes, who did he really have to appease within the power structure in Moscow or was his decision tactical and now Putin is just biding time. Honestly, even a small part of me ponders if this was a ruse to instigate Ukraine being overly ambitious and getting smacked down and defeated.
 
Prigozhin was to subordinate his troops to the MoD. And what of Prigozhin himself? If he was obligated to do the same, after all the shit talking he did, I can see where he could find this unacceptable. At any rate, what was to become of Prigozhin? My understanding is Prigozhin was not considered part of the Russian elite. Like Trump in NYC, he was considered a vulgarian. In Prigozhin's mind it was probably a matter of knowing Putin left him to the wolves.

Prigozhin was moving uninhibited toward Moscow. Overthrow or not, imagine how much more embarrassing it would have been for Wagner forces to occupy Red Square or in this case, MoD at Arbatskaya Square, a mere 3km away and Russia's internal forces unable to remove them.

The agreement was so quick, I do think this was Prigozhin playing his last card: troop strength and Putin could not suffer the further embarrassment of my aforementioned statement.

I wouldn't be surprised if we never heard from Prigozhin again. That part of the agreement was (short of having a hotdog cart on the streets of Minsk), stick your head up and we'll lop it off.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Meanwhile Prigozhin's actions are probably the hardest to understand, short of he wanted out.
Click to expand...
I don't think his motivation is hard to understand at all. Wagner was getting axed by the MoD. The decision to do so was already done, and with Wagner gone, Prigozhin's influence would inevitably wane. Maybe he was also afraid for his life, for a good reason. So he tried to wrangle Putin into taking his side instead of MoD's. As you noted, he didn't attack Putin directly (though he became pretty darn close by implicating Medvechuk in one of his rants).

But as events unfolded, he noticed that he didn't have the allies he needed. Maybe he was hoping for more enthusiastic support from the rank and file in the army. Maybe he thought he had allies in Kremlin who stayed silent. Maybe he thought Putin would take his side again, similarly to what happened earlier this year when he complained that Wagner wasn't getting enough ammunition. So at some point during the day he realized he was screwed, and that the best he could hope for was to keep his own life... for a moment anyway. That might turn out to be a very short reprieve since Putin can assassinate or extradite him from Belarus anytime he sees fit.

Prigozhin overplayed his hand, and lost. He didn't get any of his demands met, he didn't even get to deal with Putin directly. I wouldn't be surprised if we never hear from him again, and that's fine by me. Prigozhin was an awful human being and even though I would've liked him and Putin annihilate each other, his demise is at least half a win.
 
According to The Telegraph, Prigozhin pulled out because the intelligence services threatened his family:

www.telegraph.co.uk

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Details offer clue as to why Wagner Group abandoned coup attempt that revealed ‘real cracks’ in Putin’s authority
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

It's a perfectly plausible course of action for Putin's gangster regime.
 
I don't think we have anywhere near enough information to really determine what happened. It seemed Prigozhin was at best cutting his losses. There is really no exit strategy for him (he lost once joining the Putin mob), other than getting Putin to back him personally as he tries to scamper off into the sunset and retire. Putin making a "deal" so quick implies a number of possible interpretations, though really it is hard to tell.

1) Prigozhin and his marching troops were flattened and this is a ruse. Probably not likely as they have Prigozhin saying he was turning around. But that could have happened afterwards.
2) Warhawks were scared that Prigozhin DID have the people and the march would be the end of their reign.
3) Putin et al. feared the march to Moscow would imply weakness in Moscow. After all, calling Progozhin a traitor and then having his armed collection of criminals near the city line would look awful. The longer the march, the worse it got for Moscow exponentially.
4) They didn't fear Prigozhin, but the Russian military is on fumes and the ability to defeat the march was near impossible.
5) They feared defeating Prigozhin turns him into a martyr. Putin allies were quick to say Putin still had 80% support. When you need to say how popular you are, that is an indication your popularity is not at a peak. The alt-right radicals in charge of Russia don't really have any serious political adversaries, but military-esque cults-of-personality are always a risk to a dictatorship. This indeed was the worrisome part of an insurrection. Who the heck is in charge after ousting Putin and his allies? There was no opposition.
6) Putin ain't in charge. The decision to call Prigozhin a traitor was someone else's. Putin makes deal to save Prigozhin's ass. Does Putin even do that? Clearly, Putin might need access to someone with a particular set of skills, fearing for his own life.
7) This was a ruse to trick Ukraine into charging directly towards a trap.

Ultimately, it is the contradictory Prigozhin is a traitor followed by a near immediate deal that is the problem here. Prigozhin defeated the Russian military at a site. It is near impossible to really gage who was thinking what and when. Prigozhin had no viable options left and Putin / warhawks were at risk of looking weak, but also, losing the only part of the Ukrainian invasion force that wasn't completely useless.
 
9) The unfolding of these events was shaped by a convergence of calculated strategic choices, fluctuating power relations, individual motivations, and unforeseeable variables.

In short? Human shit. :rolleyes:
 
As there is no legitimate authority in the Russian state, warlords will be warlords.
 
BBC News - Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'
www.bbc.co.uk

Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'

Russia's president says the organisers of the march on Moscow will be "brought to justice".
www.bbc.co.uk

Umm... is Putin about to make with a political cleansing? I have no idea why he'd raise this other than to justify murdering political folks that he deems a risk to his leadership. Could be some left wing, could be some right wing.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
BBC News - Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'
www.bbc.co.uk

Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'

Russia's president says the organisers of the march on Moscow will be "brought to justice".
www.bbc.co.uk

Umm... is Putin about to make with a political cleansing? I have no idea why he'd raise this other than to justify murdering political folks that he deems a risk to his leadership. Could be some left wing, could be some right wing.
Click to expand...
<hiss, wheeze, hiss> "I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it any further." <wheeze, hiss>
 
ZiprHead said:
According to Wagner channels Shoigu has been arrested.
Click to expand...
Kremlin also released a video where Putin is conferencing with his cronies, including Shoigu, how to fix the situation.

So if Shoigu has been arrested, for some reason, the regime is still pretending as if he's very much not. Maybe to avoid giving any impression that the changes in MoD are being done as a concession to Prigozhin. Or maybe the rumours of his arrest are just disinformation.

It will take a few days or even weeks to find out what happens to Shoigu. Right now it looks he he survived the ordeal... but if not, it might be because Putin just considers him too much of a liability and a convenient scapegoat.
 
Last edited:
Jayjay said:
ZiprHead said:
According to Wagner channels Shoigu has been arrested.
Click to expand...
Kremlin also released a video where he is conferencing with his cronies, including Shoigu, how to fix the situation.

So if Shoigu has been arrested, for some reason, the regime is still pretending as if he's very much not. Maybe to avoid giving any impression that the changes in MoD are being done as a concession to Prigozhin. Or maybe the rumours of his arrest are just disinformation.

It will take a few days or even weeks to find out what happens to Shoigu. Right now it looks he he survived the ordeal... but if not, it might be because Putin just considers him too much of a liability and a convenient scapegoat.
Click to expand...
I'm not going to believe anything in this situation right away.
 
Putin has been dead for 6 months and his appearances are all deep fakes. George Soros controls Russia.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
BBC News - Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'
www.bbc.co.uk

Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'

Russia's president says the organisers of the march on Moscow will be "brought to justice".
www.bbc.co.uk

Umm... is Putin about to make with a political cleansing? I have no idea why he'd raise this other than to justify murdering political folks that he deems a risk to his leadership. Could be some left wing, could be some right wing.
Click to expand...
His citizens are likely calling for it, most vociferously. It wasn't just a personal offense against Putin -- these guys turned against their country, killed more than a dozen Russian soldiers, and terrified residents of the capital city. Panic transitions pretty readily to rage, as do feelings of betrayal. This will not end well for anyone who was involved.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom