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Russia decides to arrest Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin

I’m following the Ukraine twitter feed curated by Josh Marshall of TPM

It has some interesting videos and updates. The speed with which Wagner is approaching Moscow is unexpected to me. Videos of citizens of Rostov giving them food and water. Moscow Mayor declaring no business on Monday and everyone stay home, video of Wagner breaking through road blocks and Karydrov trying to get in place to oppose wagner, but stuck in traffic.
 
Putin’s plane has left Moscow. :unsure:
 
Sounds like the US is in charge of Wagner too. Does the US not control anything?

This is going to be quite concerning. Less worried about Putin, but the other Warhawks. Who is in charge when the despot flees, or has a bullet in his head.
 
“It’s all going according to plan” — Barbos
 
From Kyiv Post
There is also panic in Minsk within the Lukashenko regime. Moscow’s Belarusian vasal has placed the security forces on full alert after Belarusian democratic leaders issued appeals today to the Belarusian people to use this opportunity to free themselves both of him and Russian control.
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Peak popcorn.
 
laughing dog said:
pood said:
Putin’s plane has left Moscow. :unsure:
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Two questions
1) Was Putin on it?
2) Is it travelling over a large body of water where problems can best disposed of?
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I read somewhere that Putin is paranoid to the extreme, even more so than your average autocrat. He prefers not to travel by air, because planes are easy to shoot down and track, and when he travels inside Russia it's in his armored train. Putin also almost always has decoy planes or convoys to further confuse his real location.

The fact that we know about "Putin's plane" in my opinion means he's not on it. But it doesn't really matter... it could be that he left Moscow by some other means, and definitely many other high-ranking Kremlin-critters like Medvedev seem to have fled.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Would the cannon fodder stand against Prigozhin? I think not.
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Imagine being the cannon fodder in Ukraine. Not only did those fearsome soldiers that were fighting alongside you pack up their kit and leave, but they're marching back home to make some...changes.

Your life just got a lot more complicated. Because you were wondering when that rumored counter-offensive was going to happen, and now there's no wondering. Those (also fearsome) Ukrainians are going to hit you with everything they've got, and you've got to fight them with a lot less manpower and firepower. Plus those guys that packed up and left just took a major supply hub for your side. On top of that, you and the effort you've been making for the last year suddenly became a distant second as far as "Glorious Leader Putin's" priorities are concerned. If you are lucky, he will recall some or maybe even all of his forces to fight against Wagner, but maybe that won't be so lucky after all. Because instead of fighting those Ukrainians who were so tough, you have to take on the only fighting force in Russia who could stand toe to to with western-armed Ukrainians.

Dosvidanya.
 
This whole debacle reminds me of an SNL sketch:

 
Reports are coming in Prigozhin has agreed to stop his advance and return to base. Belarus has been put on full alert. All business in Moscow has been ordered shut down.
 
So... Prigozhin's bluff worked and he got what he wanted? Shoigu and Gerasimov are out, FSB investigation against Prigozhin dropped? So basically, Putin had to backtrack from the threats he made just 12 hours ago.

And it's not over. If Wagner gets a foothold in the MoD, they'll not let go, and will try to increase their influence bit by bit. Of course the siloviki are not going to allow this. It's not like Putin and Prigozhin can just go back to best pals after an armed insurgency. I think Prigozhin is about to find out the hard way that Putin never forgets.
 
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Jayjay said:
So... Prigozhin's bluff worked and he got what he wanted? Shoigu and Gerasimov are out, FSB investigation against Prigozhin dropped? So basically, Putin had to backtrack from the threats he made just 12 hours ago.

And it's not over. If Wagner gets a foothold in the MoD, they'll not let go, and will try to increase their influence bit by bit. Of course the siloviki are not going to allow this. It's not like Putin and Prigozhin can just go back to best pals after an armed insurgency. I think Prigozhin is about to find out the hard way that Putin never forgets.
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For some reason I'm reminded of that scene at the end of Hunt For Red October, where the sub is headed directly towards the Konavalov with a torpedo on it's tail and Scott Glenn's character says "the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch."

Question here is...who flinched?
 
Ukraine MoD tweeted: Now would be a good time for Russian soldiers to go home. Hmmmm. Maybe they will.

They certainly can’t just patch this up and pretend it didn’t happen and go back to being best buds again. On to Kiev! Yeah. Right. Ukraine needs to hit them real hard and quickly. Russia is too distracted and can’t spare any more troops. They’re all busy protecting the regime from internal threats, including various military factions.

I can see regular army units turn around now and threaten revolt to get what they want. And they don’t want Prig anywhere near them. They may be loyal to the generals that are going to get sacked. Putin is in a world of shit.
 
Ford said:
Question here is...who flinched?
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I'd say Putin.

I think that decision had already been made to sideline Wagner and replace it with more reliable actors. Prigozhin saw the writing on the wall, and forced Putin to throw Shoigu under the bus. So Prigozhin lost nothing, but gained something. Putin suffered a huge blow for showing weakness in the face of an insurgency.

What happens next? I think Kremlin propaganda machine will go to overdrive to emphasize unity and rally everyone against Ukraine again.
 
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