Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[lpetrich]

Ukraine is continuing its slow advance toward Svatove. Ukraine update: Good news, unbelievable news, and puzzling news from Svatove

Overnight, the news out of the area around Svatove was decidedly … weird. While Russian sources appeared in a near panic about new Ukrainian advances and seemed ready to write off the whole area, one of the most trusted Ukrainian sources was reporting an advance by Russian forces that caused Ukrainian troops to withdraw from two key towns. All of that might have been easier to sort out if the reports had not been for the exact same area. And while that was going on, another report had Ukrainian forces so near Svatove they could have waved to people in town.

The Russian occupiers of Svatove must be getting scared.

NOËL on Twitter: "The railway bridge in #Svatove was reportedly blown up by Russian forces. (pix link)" / Twitter

Evergreen Intel on Twitter: "The destroyed bridge over the Krasna River at 49.21623, 38.18554, Krasnorichens'ke, Luhansk, south of Svatove. According to Serhii Haidai (head of Luhansk Oblast military administration) the Russians blew the bridge out of worry Ukrainians were approaching. (pix link)" / Twitter

But on a more positive note,

Ukraine-Russia war on Twitter: "#Poland is transferring its PT-91 Twardy tanks to #Ukraine by rail
#Kherson #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

Is this an effort to rebuild the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

 

[lpetrich]

No big changes near Kherson.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "I believe that Russians have selected this orange area as their long-term defense line, ..." / Twitter
Showing a map with the east bank of the Dnieper River marked out with a think orange line. From where the river runs, that line is south of that river.

I believe that Russians have selected this orange area as their long-term defense line, evicting civilians from their homes and use them for Russian occupational troops. That accomplish several aims. (Thread)
#Ukraine #Kherson

1.) The defense line is more tenable then the current one. All positions West of the Dnipro River are under constant pressure and Russia cannot sustain the supply lines over the rivers in that sector. Having the defense line on the Eastern bank simplifies the situation.

2.) Besides the obvious that the river poses a natural barrier, when blowing up the dam at Nova Kakhovka the already big obstacle becomes an even more daunting obstacle. Russian troops could focus the defense along a smaller front line, making use of their weak but many troops.

3.) Using house of evicted/deported people could partially solve their bad situation in terms of outdoor gear. Instead of faulty tents, barns or even pigsties, Russian troops have a solid roof, while distributing them makes it harder for Ukrainian artillery.

4.) As governor Vitaly Kim pointed out, putting troops from all over Russia in this area are supposed to be an incentive in terms of "fighting for your home". The plan is move those invaders there, permanently, which delivers them better living conditions.

5.) Overall the strategy follows the same pattern of all colonial forces: Removing the inhabitants by force or kill them. Replace the void with invaders and make them hold the frontline. All of that aspects are criteria of genocide. In Luhansk and Donetsk already happening.

6.) Last but not least, the whole Russian strategy is to exhaust Ukraine and Western backers. Putin hopes that if he can hold the line long enough that appeasers in the West might take hold of the situation, looking for "peace".

7.) That been said, Putin just repeats the mistake which he has been doing since February 24. Ukrainian forces will continue the fight until every inch of Ukraine is liberated. Kherson is only a milestone and Zaporizhzhia Oblast is already in the crosshairs. Russia as a state is already severely decimated and desperately needs foreign support and an end of the sanctions. A lot of machinery in Russia is already failing to work thanks to lacking supplies and support and neither China nor India nor anyone else are going to replace that void.

Good analysis.

I especially like #6, winning by outlasting one's opponents. That's how North Vietnam beat the US in the Vietnam War, and that's how the Afghans beat both the Russians and the Americans.

 

[lpetrich]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "The defense line in my map does not include the flooded areas. As matter of speaking, that flooded area will inherently be a defense line. Here are the projected areas which will be compromised (link)" / Twitter

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "If Russians blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam then they would flood the occupied cities in the South. Plus, the canal bringing water to Crimea would dry up. #Kherson #NovaKakhovka #Crimea #Ukraine (vid link)" / Twitter
The flooding would not be permanent, however.

That video was captioned in Russian, and I've translated it with Google Translate.

Затопление Херсонской области при прорыве дамбы Каховской ГЭС
Flooding of the Kherson region during the breakthrough of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station

4.8 m / Высота волны / Wave height
~ 5 km / Ширина разлива / Spill width
24.4 km/h / Скорость волны / Wave speed

2 часа / hours
Время от прорыва до затопления Херсона
Time from breakthrough to Kherson flooding
14 часов / hours
Время непрерывного повышения уровня воды
Continuous water level rise time
3 суток / days
Продолжительность затопления
Duration of flooding

 

[Copernicus]

Russia has announced a retreat from the west bank, including the city of Kherson. It has lost the battle there and is now acknowledging the impossibility of maintaining control.

Russians withdrawing from key position in southern Ukraine​

 

[SLD]

Russia has announced a retreat from the west bank, including the city of Kherson. It has lost the battle there and is now acknowledging the impossibility of maintaining control.

Russians withdrawing from key position in southern Ukraine​

Ukraine thinks it’s a feint. Maybe. But sometimes feints fail spectacularly. Sometimes the withdrawal can turn into a rout. To pull such a feint off, Russia would need to have some highly motivated troops remaining in the area, and I think that’s a problem for them. The announcement itself will demoralize them further. I’d make a strong effort to liberate Kherson if I were Ukraine, but I’d be on my toes about potential counter attacks and other issues.

 

[Copernicus]

Russia has announced a retreat from the west bank, including the city of Kherson. It has lost the battle there and is now acknowledging the impossibility of maintaining control.

Russians withdrawing from key position in southern Ukraine​

Ukraine thinks it’s a feint. Maybe. But sometimes feints fail spectacularly. Sometimes the withdrawal can turn into a rout. To pull such a feint off, Russia would need to have some highly motivated troops remaining in the area, and I think that’s a problem for them. The announcement itself will demoralize them further. I’d make a strong effort to liberate Kherson if I were Ukraine, but I’d be on my toes about potential counter attacks and other issues.

The problem is that they can't afford to waste the troops and materiel to hold that city any longer. They can defend the territory on the eastern side of the river much more easily.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia has announced a retreat from the west bank, including the city of Kherson. It has lost the battle there and is now acknowledging the impossibility of maintaining control.

Russians withdrawing from key position in southern Ukraine​

Ukraine thinks it’s a feint. Maybe. But sometimes feints fail spectacularly. Sometimes the withdrawal can turn into a rout. To pull such a feint off, Russia would need to have some highly motivated troops remaining in the area, and I think that’s a problem for them. The announcement itself will demoralize them further. I’d make a strong effort to liberate Kherson if I were Ukraine, but I’d be on my toes about potential counter attacks and other issues.

The problem is that they can't afford to waste the troops and materiel to hold that city any longer. They can defend the territory on the eastern side of the river much more easily.

But their supply lines are in range of Ukraine's artillery, as is the key to holding Crimea. The Rashists aren't 100% fucked yet but they're a little more fucked than they were last week.

 

[Tigers!]

Historically it is unusual for an invader to announce so publicly that they are retreating so openly.
The usual form is to fight/wait until the liberators are on the door step or within the city to announce a retreat. Always to 'save civilian lives' it must be noted.
Ukraine is wise to be wary. There is nothing wrong with looking a gift horse in the mouth as long you are ready in case it has been eating garlic.

 

[Tigers!]

Perhaps it is time for a thread called 'Liberation of Ukraine - tactics and logistics'?
'

 

[Copernicus]

Historically it is unusual for an invader to announce so publicly that they are retreating so openly.
The usual form is to fight/wait until the liberators are on the door step or within the city to announce a retreat. Always to 'save civilian lives' it must be noted.
Ukraine is wise to be wary. There is nothing wrong with looking a gift horse in the mouth as long you are ready in case it has been eating garlic.

I think that the pullout would have been easily detected from satellite, aerial, and intelligence sources on the ground, not to mention public comments on social media. Historically, they didn't have the internet, drones, smart phones, and other technology doodads. So the Russian government needed to spin this retreat as best they could for their own domestic consumption. Shoigu was informed that they really didn't have any choice. Putin may have had a tantrum, but they are probably used to that.

 

[lpetrich]

Dmitri on Twitter: "Russian soldiers are impressed and shocked by the quality and amount of artillery Ukrainians have. As this Russian soldier says in an intercepted call, they are losing a lot of people, and he's wondering how he's still alive. (vid link)" / Twitter

Francis Farrell on Twitter: "Russian telegram channels saying Ukrainians are smashing the crossing points where thousands of Russians are retreating across the Dnipro. This looks huge. (pic link)" / Twitter

Противник бьёт по переправам!!!
Стреляет по сути в спину!
Ночь будет очень тяжелая. Молимся за пацанов!

Военкоры скулят о том, что ВСУ рубит пути отступления.

Те из вас кто останется в живых будут завидовать мертвым.

Google Translate:

The enemy is hitting the crossings !!!
Shoots essentially in the back!
The night will be very difficult. We pray for the boys!

Military correspondents are whining that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are cutting down retreat routes.

Those of you who remain alive will envy the dead.

 

[Rhea]

Perhaps it is time for a thread called 'Liberation of Ukraine - tactics and logistics'?
'

I find this suggestion appealing.
No doubt because it feels optimistic and uplifting. And also because my brain likes “useful” labels.
Not sure if the appeal is due to my tendency toward optimism, which I try to actively rein in to realism (with great effort)


But I do find it appealing.
If others like the idea for its “right naming” value, then mods can change a thread title.

 

[lpetrich]

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "The roads of Russian-occupied Svatove are really a testament of Russian road design. This used to be an asphalt road before the Russian tanks. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Svatove (vid link)" / Twitter

Dmitri on Twitter: "A review of a Russian mobik position in Svatove direction. Bio toilets, nine people sleeping in one shelter, but at least there are no fleas!
When wives of these men attempted to contact their region's administration, they were blocked. (vid link)" / Twitter

A small camp in the forest.

✙ Constantine ✙ on Twitter: "The number of POWs has grown these couple of days.
- This batch is from the Moscow region
- Mobilized into Mulino
- Received basic training
- Sent as cannon fodder.
- Hid in the cellars and basements around Svatove to survive the engagement, saving their lives. (pix link)" / Twitter

 

[Copernicus]

Слава Україні!

Ukrainian troops enter key city of Kherson after Russian forces retreat, dealing blow to Putin​

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Putin is starting to take off the gloves. Will need to suggest most of Ukraine are Nazis now to justify these attacks.

May I remind you NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.

Limited bombing to stop genocide. Unlike Russian in Ukraine committing mass murders of civilians.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Francis Farrell on Twitter: "Russian telegram channels saying Ukrainians are smashing the crossing points where thousands of Russians are retreating across the Dnipro. This looks huge. (pic link)" / Twitter

Противник бьёт по переправам!!!
Стреляет по сути в спину!
Ночь будет очень тяжелая. Молимся за пацанов!

Военкоры скулят о том, что ВСУ рубит пути отступления.

Те из вас кто останется в живых будут завидовать мертвым.

Google Translate:

The enemy is hitting the crossings !!!
Shoots essentially in the back!
The night will be very difficult. We pray for the boys!

Military correspondents are whining that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are cutting down retreat routes.

Those of you who remain alive will envy the dead.

Yup, Ukraine is fighting this intelligently. Don't assault, instead you threaten to cut them off so they run and then it's a shooting gallery, not to mention lots of equipment gets left behind to capture rather than destroying it.

Unfortunately, I suspect the GOP is going to hand Ukraine to Pootin.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Well, the Russian nationalists are screaming about Kherson, directing their ire at the Kremlin. I suppose Putin could use this to maintain support for the war but this is something that could quickly get away from him. Then Putin will have to send his goon squads out to shut them up.
Russian forces in all its forms is still embittered. Looks like few are getting paid. Every excuse under the sun is being used to avoid having to pay out what was promised. They want to draw in DNR and LNR forces into the Russian pay system. This is not being received well. Also, it sounds like troops are being told you're going to die regardless. You can do it as a hero or a coward. I guess we're not even bothering with morale any longer. The wounded are being labeled as deserters to avoid pay and benefits. Soldiers are being forced to purchase thier own ammo. It's not a pretty picture.
Oh and the Russian school system is going back to the four Rs. That fourth one being rifles. Makes sense. Russia doesn't have and won't have much in the way of an army for quite some time, best to train them all to defend sacred Russian soil (TBD).

 

[ZiprHead]

Wagner Telegram channel showed Wagner PMC personel killing one exchanged former Wagner fighter (convicted murderer, prison recruit) with a sledgehammer. He commited the crime of getting captured by Ukraine.